We’re via Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season and already three video games into Week 16. Though the postseason remains to be three weeks away, we’re taking an early have a look at the current playoff picture and the highway to Super Bowl LIX. Which groups are in fine condition? Which nonetheless have numerous work to do to finally get into the 14-team field?
We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to venture the remainder of the season, trying on the playoff image for each conferences. We included up to date odds for each workforce to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Tremendous Bowl. We additionally appeared on the potential for groups within the playoff image to complete in particular seeds and the potential for groups out of the playoff image to complete with the highest draft decide. This is every part you want proper now.
Final replace: Dec. 22 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Soar to:
AFC | NFC | Seeds | No. 1 pick
Projecting the AFC playoff discipline
The Chiefs, Payments and Texans have all clinched their respective division titles, and the Steelers and Ravens are additionally formally within the playoffs. The Chargers and Broncos additionally look good to make the playoffs, so there may not be a ton to play for on this convention past Week 16.
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The Broncos can clinch with losses from Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Miami.
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The Chargers can clinch with losses from Indianapolis and Miami.
Six groups have been eradicated within the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.
Projecting the NFC playoff discipline
The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all clinched spots within the playoffs, and the Packers are on the verge of becoming a member of them. They want a win against the Saints. However they will additionally get in with a loss from the Falcons after which a loss from both the Seahawks or Rams. Past that, there’s nonetheless loads up within the air within the NFC.
The Eagles take the NFC East with a win over Washington, and the NFC South seems to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, although Tampa Bay is favored (85% to win the division). The NFC West is extensive open. The Rams have a 54% likelihood on the playoffs and 53% on the division. However the Seahawks and Cardinals are each very a lot alive there.
The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win, a Falcons loss after which an extra loss from both the Rams or Seahawks.
The Giants, Bears and Panthers have been eradicated, and the Cowboys, Saints and 49ers are headed in that route. Seven NFC groups have elimination eventualities this weekend, and 4 of them — Cincinnati, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco — are out with a loss and no extra necessities.
Take a look at our NFL Playoff Machine
Simulate your individual eventualities and take a look at the newest playoff image: Strive the 2024 NFL Playoff Picture.
Seeding projections
Listed here are the possibilities that groups within the playoff combine fall into every slot as soon as the sector is about. Within the prime spot, the Chiefs maintain the benefit at 92%. They’d clinch this weekend with a Payments loss. ESPN’s FPI can be fairly assured that Houston will find yourself in that No. 4 spot within the AFC, however it is not certain on different playoff contenders. The Ravens, as an illustration, have a 39% likelihood to complete third, 37% likelihood to complete fifth and 15% likelihood to complete sixth.
The shut division races within the NFC make the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds very a lot up for grabs. Apparently, the No. 5 seed is almost assured to the second-place finisher within the NFC North. And as for the No. 1 seed, the Lions maintain the benefit over the Eagles and Vikings in the intervening time — however the hole has narrowed.
Race for the 2025 No. 1 draft decide
The Giants (2-12) are eradicated from the playoffs and seem like within the driver’s seat for the No. 1 decide in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will certainly be trying on the quarterback class. However the Patriots and Raiders are within the combine for the highest decide, too. See the full draft order here, which is up to date on Tuesdays.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)
