-
Jeff Legwold
A number of the most confounding, career-challenging selections within the NFL draft come when the attention check crashes head-on into the numbers. When a participant seems NFL-ready in the way in which he strikes, however there aren’t sufficient affect performs on the stat sheet to match the off-the-charts measurables.
“I feel you worth upside since you need progress, however we do not have a farm system,” Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel mentioned. “You do not have the posh of redshirting them within the Nationwide Soccer League.”
Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart, the No. 25 prospect on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board, is a part of a deep group of edge rushers on this 2025 draft class, a place on the epicenter of the “potential vs. manufacturing” debate.
He is additionally the highest-rated participant on this yr’s balancing act of marrying future NFL potential with on-field manufacturing. And his analysis is likely to be outlined by the quantity “4.5” — as in, 4.5 whole faculty sacks and precisely 1.5 in every of his three seasons.
“Generally the stats do not inform the entire story,” Stewart mentioned on the mix. “It is all in regards to the movie. And whenever you take a look at the movie, you’ll be able to actually see what is going on on for probably the most half.”
Stewart, together with Mykel Williams (Georgia) and Landon Jackson (Arkansas), are this draft’s prime examples of what has grow to be a yearly conundrum for NFL scouts and entrance workplace executives. We talked to individuals across the league about how decision-makers wrestle with big-time upside vs. a scarcity of manufacturing in Spherical 1 and why the traits are typically too good to cross up — even when it means betting their very own futures on that potential.
THE 21-YEAR-OLD STEWART is a just-how-you-draw-it-up prospect. He measured 6-foot-5 and weighed 267 kilos at the combine. He ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.59 seconds, higher than three working backs, 5 broad receivers and all 14 tight ends in attendance who ran. He additionally had a 40-inch vertical soar (tied for fourth highest amongst all gamers on the mix) and a broad soar of 10-foot-11 (tied for seventh amongst all gamers).
“[That type of performance] will all the time get your consideration,” a scout for an AFC crew mentioned. “There aren’t many individuals on the planet who can do this.”
It raises the query of how a participant so massive, robust, fast and quick had solely 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss over 37 faculty video games. To place that into perspective, Penn State’s Abdul Carter — who many within the league consider is the perfect participant obtainable on this class — had 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in 16 video games final season. However Stewart has tantalizing analytical metrics that rope scouts proper again in. Regardless of his meager manufacturing, his common time to first strain final season was 2.43 seconds, the perfect mark within the FBS (Carter clocked in at 2.46 seconds).
“As a coach, for those who assume you are value a s— in any respect, you are going to watch a man with all of the traits and say, ‘I can get [the sacks] out of him, I can get him to play,'” a longtime former NFL defensive position coach mentioned. “These are the pound-the-table guys. You do not need plateau gamers, guys who’re pretty much as good as they will be. You need potential.”
Stewart mentioned he has been requested by coaches, scouts and personnel executives about his statistical profile. He pointed to the Aggies’ depth and opposing quarterbacks getting a rid of the ball rapidly to keep away from strain from the Texas A&M entrance. The Aggies’ protection was twenty second within the FBS in strain price (40.3%) regardless of one of many lowest blitz charges (19.3%, which ranked a hundred and fifteenth).
“I wasn’t a sack-chasing warrior,” Stewart mentioned. “I simply needed to grow to be the perfect participant for my crew. And typically the stats do not present that. Generally, I’ve to play useless to rights, and typically I simply could not end or simply could not get there in time.”
Stewart is not alone in fielding these questions. Georgia’s Williams, who’s ranked No. 22 total by Kiper, had 14 sacks in three seasons for the Bulldogs, together with solely 5 in 2024. Williams told teams in latest weeks he was “lower than 60%” at occasions final season due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 1.
Arkansas’ Jackson additionally matches the invoice. He had 16 sacks in three seasons, however the 6-foot-6, 264-pounder was so dominant in combine workouts that a number of scouts on completely different groups mentioned they wanted to rewatch his recreation tape. They famous that Jackson was an earnest edge setter in run protection, however they did not see the explosiveness he confirmed in Indianapolis within the cross rush.
Williams mentioned on the mix that some in contrast him to a different Georgia edge rusher who was a statistical curiosity — Travon Walker, the No. 1 choose of the 2022 draft. Walker was one of many draft’s most outstanding potential-vs.-production debates of the previous decade.
“Travon was particular due to how massive he was and how briskly he may transfer,” Williams mentioned. “He is very versatile, like myself. In order that’s the place I feel the comparisons come from, however that is what made him particular. What he may do along with his measurement.”
WALKER DIDN’T CHECK all of the containers because the 2022 draft approached. He had 9.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss mixed in three faculty seasons. However the 6-foot-5, 272-pound edge rusher was intriguing due to the uncommon, jaw-dropping moments he produced, even when they did not all the time end in a sort out or sack.
Main as much as that draft, scouts repeatedly cited Walker’s rundown of Alabama broad receiver Agiye Hall 24 yards downfield within the 2021 season’s national championship game for example of his distinctive ability set. He then turned in a mix day for the ages. Walker ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.51 seconds, the perfect mark for all defensive linemen and second finest amongst edge rushers. His vertical leap of 35½ inches was higher than all however two defensive linemen.
“I preferred him,” an AFC scout mentioned. “However you end up answering for, ‘How’d he solely have one sack as a [sophomore]? How can a man that gifted have [seven] sacks in his final two years?'”
Coaches, scouts and basic managers insist sacks aren’t the end-all-be-all when trying to find cross rushers. However gamers whose abilities are clear with out the easy-to-digest outcomes vex even the perfect expertise evaluators.
“In a gathering you are all the time going to say, ‘Let’s look past these numbers and get extra knowledge,’ or ‘Let’s dive into this extra, take a look at the scheme, how he was coached, what he was requested to do, the make-up, all of it,'” mentioned an NFC basic supervisor. “The fellows with each traits and numbers, these are the simple calls. … A participant with all of the traits and no touchdowns, interceptions or sacks or no matter, these are robust ‘Whys?'”
Walker ended up being the No. 1 choose, with the Jaguars selecting him over Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, who was thought to be the safer choice because of his 14 sacks in 2021. Hutchinson was chosen No. 2 total by the Lions. The early outcomes skewed to Hutchinson. Walker moved from defensive position to outdoors linebacker as a rookie, ending with solely 3.5 sacks over 788 snaps. In the meantime, Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and completed second within the Defensive Rookie of the Yr voting. However Walker rewarded Jacksonville’s persistence with 10 sacks in 2023 and 10.5 final season.
“It is all the time, whenever you’re on the clock, a selection about if, and when, you are taking traits and what you assume the participant has inside to be what you assume he ought to be,” the NFC basic supervisor mentioned.
SOMETIMES IT DOESN’T work. For each Walker and Odafe Oweh — a 2021 first-round draft choose who had zero sacks in his last faculty season however had 10 for the Ravens in 2024 — there is a Vernon Gholston, whose elite traits did not translate after being drafted by the Jets with the sixth choose in 2008.
However elite cross rushers are among the many quickest to adapt to the NFL, which is why some evaluators lean in slightly extra on potential.
“You simply assume, a tweak right here along with his palms, repair his stance, add some power, they’re going to adapt quick,” the previous defensive position coach mentioned. “You need these guys that get to the quarterback. … If they have the traits, you’ll be able to take an opportunity. You may get it proper greater than another positions.”
Stewart hopes evaluators take a look at the entire image and see all he believes he dropped at the Aggies’ protection — and would deliver to his new NFL house.
“[Box score] manufacturing is slightly overrated,” he mentioned.
