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Mike Clay
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 2, which kicks off Thursday with the Commanders at the Packers.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and, after all, simply digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to assist you to with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin choices, last-minute waiver provides and lineup decisions.
Moreover, we now have folded the Shadow Experiences, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns under. Utilizing our play-by-play information, we’re in a position to establish defensive schemes and the place every vast receiver and cornerback strains up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we are able to provide the most effective projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire strategies every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively normal scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Ok, 1 D/ST), though I will usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for a minimum of 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s observe: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant could be ranked barely increased or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates through the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will at all times be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
WAS-GB | CLE-BAL | JAX-CIN | NYG-DAL | CHI-DET | NE-MIA | SF-NO | BUF-NYJ
SEA-PIT | LAR-TEN | CAR-ARI | DEN-IND | PHI-KC | ATL-MIN | TB-HOU | LAC-LV
Projected rating: Packers 26, Commanders 25
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Josh Jacobs, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel
Fantasy scoop: The Packers’ comfy Week 1 victory stored their go performs to a minimal (26 dropbacks), however we did get a have a look at the staff’s new-look WR room. Romeo Doubs (16 routes, 4 targets), Matthew Golden (13 routes, two targets), Dontayvion Wicks (9 routes, two targets), Jayden Reed (12 routes, 5 targets), Malik Heath (three routes, zero targets) and Savion Williams (one route, one goal) have been all concerned. This deployment paints the image of a large receiver-by-committee method, nevertheless it’s very attainable Golden was restricted a bit in his professional debut. The primary-round rookie’s position figures to extend because the season progresses, and the targets will comply with in additional aggressive, pass-friendly video games. Within the meantime, Golden, Reed and Doubs are not more than fringe flex choices.
Over/beneath: 51 (highest)
Win Chance: Packers 57% (thirteenth highest)
Projected rating: Bengals 28, Jaguars 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: The Jaguars’ RB image is a bit clearer after the staff traded Tank Bigsby to the Eagles on Monday. Week 1 noticed Jacksonville deploy 4 backs, with Travis Etienne (16 carries and three targets on 39 snaps) the clear chief and Bigsby (5 carries on 12 snaps), LeQuint Allen (one carry and one goal on 9 snaps) and Bhayshul Tuten (three carries on 4 snaps) additionally concerned. With Bigsby gone, the staff will lean on the opposite three, with Etienne the clear prime choice … for now. Allen will likely be a think about passing conditions (he ran solely 4 fewer routes than Etienne) and Tuten is positioned for extra change-of-pace carries. Etienne confirmed nicely towards a shaky Carolina protection within the opener and is a viable flex choice this week. However ought to Etienne’s effectivity dip, Tuten will likely be a candidate for a bigger position. The rookie stays a wonderful end-of-bench stash.
Fantasy scoop: Hunter was quiet in his NFL debut (33 yards), however there’s excellent news: The No. 2 choose was on the sector for 30 of the staff’s 33 go performs and led Jacksonville in targets (six) and catches (six). Hunter, who was restricted to 6 snaps on protection, is unlikely to take care of a 28% goal share, however even when he is nearer to twenty% to 25%, he is guess for constant WR2-3 manufacturing. He must be locked into lineups this week towards a shaky Bengals protection.
Over/beneath: 49.2 (fourth highest)
Win likelihood: Bengals 71% (third highest)
Projected rating: Cowboys 24, Giants 21
Lineup locks: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers
Fantasy scoop: Javonte Williams was Dallas’ clear function again in Week 1, enjoying 80% of the offensive snaps and totaling 15 carries and three targets. Williams was not overly efficient (3.6 yards per carry, 3.3 yards per goal) however bailed out those that began him in fantasy with a pair of quick landing runs. Williams’ heavy utilization is sufficient to place him as a fringe RB2 this week towards a New York protection that gave up 164 yards to Washington’s RBs in Week 1. But when Williams’ effectivity would not enhance, it is seemingly that Miles Sanders (50 yards on 5 touches in Week 1) and rookie Jaydon Blue (inactive) will chip away at his workload.
Shadow Report: Anticipate Trevon Diggs to shadow Nabers in Week 2. Diggs was restricted in his return in Week 1, however when he was on the sector, he shadowed A.J. Brown on six of 9 protection snaps. Moreover, Dallas selected to shadow Nabers in each 2024 matchups, with Diggs touring with him in Week 4 and DaRon Bland following him in Week 13 (Diggs was out). Nabers was productive in each video games, totaling 23.1 fantasy factors and 14.9 factors, respectively. He can, after all, be began with confidence, and Darius Slayton must be thought of a Week 2 sleeper towards Kaiir Elam.
Over/beneath: 44.7 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Cowboys 62% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Lions 27, Bears 22
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Week 1 gave us our first have a look at Ben Johnson’s model of the Chicago offense, and, a minimum of within the quick time period, it was excellent news for Odunze and unhealthy information for Colston Loveland. Odunze paced the Bears’ vast receiver room in snaps (59), routes (34) and targets (9). Lots of the seems to be got here within the quick space (7.6 aDOT) and restricted him to 37 yards, however the second-year-receiver did discover the top zone, and his 26% goal share is definitely sustainable shifting ahead. Odunze must be in lineups as a WR3 this week. Loveland, however, was out-snapped 57-35 and out-targeted 4-2 by Cole Kmet. The rookie was on the sector for less than 22 of the staff’s 43 go performs (in comparison with 37 for Kmet), which is not sufficient to supply TE1 fantasy numbers. Loveland must be stashed on benches till his enjoying time will increase.
Over/beneath: 48.1 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Lions 68% (seventh highest)
Projected rating: Rams 26, Titans 20
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley
Fantasy scoop: Pollard was a transparent function again in Week 1, which was hardly a shock with operating mate Tyjae Spears (IR) sidelined. Pollard performed an enormous 89% of the staff’s 55 offensive snaps. He dealt with 18 of the staff’s 20 RB carries and, although he was focused solely as soon as, was on the sector for 31 of 34 go performs. With Julius Chestnut (six snaps final week) and Kalel Mullings (zero) his solely competitors for work, Pollard is a powerful guess to push for 20 touches once more this week. He ought to in lineups as a stable, low-ceiling RB2.
Over/beneath: 45.6 (eighth highest)
Win likelihood: Rams 71% (fourth highest)
Projected rating: Patriots 23, Dolphins 23
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
Fantasy scoop: The Patriots’ operating again deployment was a bit completely different than anticipated in Week 1, with Rhamondre Stevenson main in snaps (45), routes (21) and carries (seven), in comparison with TreVeyon Henderson‘s 23 snaps, 17 routes and 5 carries. Although he ran fewer routes, Henderson held an edge in targets (six to 4) and was considerably extra productive (51 yards on 11 touches, in comparison with 27 yards on 9 touches for Stevenson). It is seemingly that Henderson’s position will enhance in time, however the restricted utilization as a rusher is sufficient to knock him right down to the RB2/flex fringe. Stevenson, in the meantime, is a low-ceiling flex choice.
Over/beneath: 46.1 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 50% (sixteenth highest)
Projected rating: 49ers 25, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ricky Pearsall
Fantasy scoop: George Kittle (hamstring, IR) is sidelined for a minimum of 4 weeks, which opens the door for Jake Tonges and Luke Farrell to deal with tight ends duties for the 49ers. As soon as Kittle departed Sunday’s recreation, Tonges ran 15 routes, in comparison with 12 for Farrell. Tonges caught a landing go and the duo mixed for 19 yards on 4 targets. Neither is a really helpful fantasy begin towards the Saints, however the goal shares of Pearsall (a lineup lock following a powerful Week 1) and Jauan Jennings stand to profit. After all, with Brock Purdy sidelined, each have added danger. Pearsall is greatest valued as a WR3 and Jennings (if he is in a position to play) a flex.
Fantasy scoop: The Saints tried to be fantasy pleasant in Week 1, force-feeding passes to Chris Olave (13 targets), Juwan Johnson (11) and Rashid Shaheed (9). The unhealthy information is that these 33 targets resulted in a complete of 163 yards and nil touchdowns on 21 receptions. Johnson has been increase/bust all through his time in New Orleans, although he now has 12-plus fantasy factors in three straight video games and 5 of his previous eight relationship to final season. He is TE2 and a reputation to observe. Olave and Shaheed are on the flex radar however will likely be exhausting to belief with maybe the league’s shakiest quarterback (Spencer Rattler) beneath heart.
Over/beneath: 44.4 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: 49ers 69% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: Payments 28, Jets 22
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Justin Fields, James Cook, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
Shadow Report: For the primary time in his professional profession, Sauce Gardner shadowed on a full-time foundation in Week 1. New York’s prime nook traveled with DK Metcalf on 29 of his 32 routes (29 of 29 perimeter) and helped restrict him to 12.3 fantasy factors. This week, there is a affordable probability that Gardner will journey with Keon Coleman, who established himself as Allen’s prime perimeter goal within the opener. Gardner’s sturdy exhibiting in Week 1 suggests we should always count on a regression for Coleman. He is greatest valued as a WR3/flex.
Shadow Report: Wilson can count on shadow protection from Christian Benford this week. Buffalo selected to shadow the Jets’ prime goal in each 2024 video games, placing Benford on him in Week 6 and, with Benford dealing with Davante Adams, placing Rasul Douglas on him in Week 17. Wilson delivered an 8-107-1 receiving line on 10 targets within the first recreation and 7-66-1 on eight targets within the latter. Wilson clearly fared nicely, and, particularly after Buffalo struggled to cease Baltimore’s receivers within the opener, his Week 2 outlook seems promising.
Over/beneath: 49.5 (third highest)
Win likelihood: Payments 73% (second highest)
Projected rating: Steelers 22, Seahawks 18
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy scoop: Those that drafted Kenneth Walker III had their worst fears realized in Week 1 because it was Zach Charbonnet who led the Seattle backfield. Whereas Walker was restricted to 10 carries and three targets on 20 snaps, Charbonnet soaked up 12 carries on 29 snaps (he wasn’t focused, however ran yet another route than Walker). It is attainable Walker (who began) will reclaim lead again duties, however that is removed from a assure, particularly after he was held to 24 yards on 13 touches, in comparison with Charbonnet’s 47 yards and one TD on 12 touches. Each backs will likely be exhausting to belief this week and make for fringe flex performs towards a Steelers protection that’s anticipated to be one of many league’s greatest regardless of a gradual begin.
Shadow Report: Riq Woolen shadowed Ricky Pearsall within the opener, and we are able to count on him to comply with ex-teammate Metcalf in Week 2. Pearsall had little hassle towards Woolen (he produced 108 yards on six targets), so Metcalf will be began with confidence.
Over/beneath: 39.7 (sixteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Steelers 66% (eighth highest)
Projected rating: Ravens 29, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jerry Jeudy, Zay Flowers, David Njoku
Fantasy scoop: One of many large surprises of Week 1 was the Browns’ operating again deployment. Jerome Ford paced the backfield in snaps (37) however barely touched the ball (six carries, one goal). Fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson, in the meantime, soaked up 12 carries and eight targets on 32 snaps. Bizarrely, Ford was out-targeted 8-1 regardless of working as the popular passing down again (24-16 edge in routes). Sampson’s fast emergence is sufficient to squash Ford’s sliver of fantasy attraction, however the place this will get difficult is that if Quinshon Judkins returns this week. If the second-round rookie performs (and even when he is restricted to some extent), this backfield will likely be greatest prevented. But when he stays out, Sampson will likely be a viable flex choice. As soon as Judkins is up to the mark, he is prone to work because the clear lead rusher, particularly after Browns RBs totaled 40 yards on 21 carries within the opener.
Over/beneath: 45.2 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Ravens 89% (highest)
Projected rating: Broncos 21, Colts 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: The Broncos’ Week 1 RB utilization was as follows: J.K. Dobbins dealt with 16 carries and two targets on 37 snaps, in comparison with six carries and one goal on 22 snaps for RJ Harvey and nil carries and 6 targets on 12 snaps for Tyler Badie. Harvey truly led the unit in yards (69), however Dobbins’ enormous edge in touches (18, in comparison with a mixed 9 for Harvey and Badie) provides the veteran the sting in fantasy in the meanwhile. Dobbins, who scored within the opener, is a deep league flex choice, whereas Harvey must be stashed on benches till he sees an expanded position. Badie is a candidate for much less work shifting ahead after catching two of six targets for 16 yards.
Shadow Report: Apprehensive about Pat Surtain II shadowing Michael Pittman Jr. this week? It is attainable, particularly after he locked down Calvin Ridley in Week 1. However take into account that Surtain didn’t comply with Pittman in two earlier conferences with the Colts (together with Week 15 final season). There’s nonetheless some danger of a shadow right here, particularly after Pittman performed nicely in Week 1, nevertheless it’s removed from a positive factor, so Pittman stays on the flex radar. Denver gave up the second-fewest fantasy factors to WRs in Week 1.
Over/beneath: 41.6 (fifteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Broncos 51% (fifteenth highest)
Projected rating: Cardinals 25, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: At the very least from a utilization standpoint, McMillan’s NFL debut was about pretty much as good as you may hope for. The primary-round rookie performed 82% of the offensive snaps and paced the staff in targets (9), air yards (118) and receiving yards (68). Carolina’s offensive struggles might restrict McMillan’s TD output, nevertheless it’s very attainable he’ll maintain a goal share within the vary of what he noticed within the opener (27%) all through the season. McMillan’s stable begin is sufficient to make him a lineup lock WR3 towards Arizona.
Over/beneath: 45.5 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Cardinals 69% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Eagles 25, Chiefs 25
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Hollywood Brown, DeVonta Smith, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: With Rashee Rice and Jalen Royals sidelined, and Xavier Worthy injured on his first go route of the season, Kansas Metropolis’s prime receivers in Week 1 have been Brown (54 snaps, 16 targets), JuJu Smith-Schuster (46 snaps, 5 targets) and Tyquan Thornton (42 snaps, 4 targets). Worthy is predicted to be sidelined for just a few weeks and Rice cannot return from suspension till Week 7, which units up Brown because the staff’s prime wideout. Although he will not maintain a 42% goal share, Brown has a historical past of heavy utilization and WR2/3 manufacturing, so he must be in lineups towards the Eagles. Smith-Schuster and Thornton are sneaky flex choices in deeper leagues, however contemplating the depth of the place, you may definitely intention increased.
Shadow Report: Trent McDuffie figures to shadow Brown this week. That was how he was deployed when these groups confronted off within the Tremendous Bowl, with Brown delivering a 3-43-1 receiving line on 5 targets. McDuffie is a stable nook, so Brown’s bust charge is increased than standard, however he, after all, ought to stay in lineups.
Over/beneath: 49.9 (second highest)
Win likelihood: Eagles 53% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Vikings 24, Falcons 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy scoop: The Vikings’ Week 1 RB utilization break up between Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones was as follows: Mason held the sting in snaps (28-23) and carries (15-8), however Jones led in routes (10-4) and targets (3-1). The deployment was about as anticipated, although Mason’s sizable edge in carries is sweet information for his shot at weekly flex manufacturing (however minimal receiving work will stay a detriment to his ceiling). Jones caught a landing go on a well-thrown wheel route, which bailed him out of an in any other case underwhelming day. Each backs are on the flex radar towards Atlanta, with Jones’ receiving position supplying him with a tiny edge.
Shadow Report: Anticipate A.J. Terrell to shadow Jefferson this week. Atlanta’s prime nook traveled with Mike Evans in Week 1 and shadowed usually all through final season, which included a Week 14 recreation towards Minnesota. That week, Terrell aligned towards Jefferson on 18 of his 32 routes (17 of 24 on the perimeter). Jefferson had no hassle, posting a 7-132-2 receiving line on seven targets. Most of that harm did come away from Terrell protection, however prime receivers merely have not had a lot hassle towards Atlanta lately. Expectations for Jefferson can stay excessive.
Over/beneath: 44.3 (14th highest)
Win likelihood: Vikings 65% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: Buccaneers 24, Texans 22
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Houston utilized 4 tailbacks in Week 1. Nick Chubb was the lead (13 carries and one goal on 28 snaps), but additionally concerned have been Dare Ogunbowale (two carries and two targets on 15 snaps), Woody Marks (three carries and nil targets on seven snaps) and Dameon Pierce (three carries and one goal on seven snaps). Chubb ran the ball nicely (4.6 YPC) however stays a nonfactor within the passing recreation, which makes him an unappealing flex choice. If Chubb have been to sit down out time, a three-headed committee in all probability could be in place, with none of Ogunbowale, Pierce or Marks a viable flex. It is a scenario to keep away from fully, a minimum of till Joe Mixon (hopefully) returns later this season.
Shadow Report: Evans can count on the shadow remedy from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. Houston’s standout nook traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 and held him to 7.2 fantasy factors. Moreover, he shadowed on 5 events in 2024 and held that group to 13.8 fantasy factors per recreation. Evans was held to eight.3 factors whereas coping with A.J. Terrell‘s shadow protection in Week 1, so it is honest to decrease expectations a bit towards Stingley this week.
Over/beneath: 46.1 (seventh highest)
Win likelihood: Buccaneers 58% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Chargers 25, Raiders 20
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Jakobi Meyers, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Hampton’s NFL debut wasn’t tremendous spectacular within the boxscore (61 yards), however the excellent news is that his total utilization gives a ton of causes for optimism. The rookie out-snapped Najee Harris 50-11 and out-carried him 15-1. Hampton was restricted to 2 targets however ran 18 routes to Harris’ 5. It is attainable (maybe seemingly) that Harris will get extra work shifting ahead, however even when Hampton’s snap share drops a bit from what he noticed in Week 1 (81%), he’ll nonetheless be nicely positioned to supply weekly RB1/2 numbers. Lock Hampton into your lineup towards the Raiders, whereas Harris must be on both waivers or the top of your bench.
Shadow Report: Chargers vast receivers have been wonderful in Week 1, with McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston every delivering a minimum of 5 receptions, 68 yards and 13.4 fantasy factors. The trio is in an amazing spot this week, because it’s set to face off with Raiders corners Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes. The Raiders surrendered the sixth-most fantasy factors to receivers in Week 1 regardless of going through a Patriots WR room that hardly included Stefon Diggs (12 routes). Improve Los Angeles’ receivers.
Over/beneath: 45.3 (tenth highest)
Win likelihood: Chargers 65% (tenth highest)
