College football Week 5: Alabama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State, more

For the reason that faculty soccer preseason, it has been simple to circle Week 5 as type of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It is lastly right here, and it is as huge as we might have hoped.

Oregon and Penn State have overwhelmed seven overwhelmed opponents by a mean rating of 48-8; their seasons start in earnest in Completely happy Valley on Saturday night time. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first journey to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even greater from a penalties perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could possibly be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Prime-ranked Ohio State’s first highway take a look at of the season pits the Buckeyes in opposition to a Washington staff with one of the crucial prolific offenses within the nation.

These are simply the principle occasions! On Friday night time, resurgent Florida State visits a splendidly shocking Virginia staff. After final week’s cruel blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to keep away from a large letdown at Iowa, the place many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the primary time in a battle of irritating and spectacularly explosive groups. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have performed many wild and foolish video games over the previous decade, have heaps on the road in School Station. USC exams its unbeaten report in Champaign in opposition to scorned Illinois. We even get a Massive Sky Saturday night time with a battle of FCS top-10 groups!

We have spent 4 weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. This is every thing you could comply with in an unbelievable Week 5.

Video games are Saturday except famous; occasions are Japanese.

The season begins in Completely happy Valley

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

With all due respect to Nevada, Florida Worldwide and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 groups, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State started its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, a mean top-five staff would count on to start out the season 3-0 in opposition to these opponents 97.3% of the time, profitable by a mean of 38.3 factors per sport. The Nittany Lions gained by precisely 38.3 per sport.

Penn State traded résumé-building alternatives and somewhat little bit of margin for error for 3 certain wins and acquired them. Oregon additionally hasn’t performed a lot of a assassin’s row; the Geese have dominated 4 groups ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They did not enable their first non-garbage-time landing till final Saturday. Nothing is a must-win sport for 2 name-brand Massive Ten groups with unbeaten data, however neither of those groups could have glowing strength-of-schedule rankings in the event that they’re in, say, a big pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It is in all probability greatest to win this one.

Penn State’s protection has been each bit as dominant as we anticipated, contemplating James Franklin already had a top-five protection and added the very best defensive coordinator within the nation (Jim Knowles) to guide it. The Nittany Lions power turnovers and do not enable huge performs, and so they’ve continued to dominate the purple zone as they did final season. The run protection perhaps hasn’t dominated as a lot as I assumed it could, however the cross protection has been nearly good: Nook Elliot Washington II has extra catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive finish Dani Dennis-Sutton has been nearly as good as marketed (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 compelled fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up the place he left off in final yr’s School Soccer Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman finish Chaz Coleman has shortly turn out to be a weapon, too.

To place it politely, the offense has been slightly reserved. Franklin is the kind of coach who would preserve issues vanilla and put as little as attainable on movie earlier than an enormous sport. PSU is not permitting strain or unfavorable performs and has dedicated only one turnover in three video games, and Drew Allar hasn’t actually appeared to make huge performs — he has thrown simply 4 passes 30 or extra yards downfield, finishing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content material to lean on opponents till they fall over.

Nonetheless, you’d prefer to assume that, with so few deep-ball makes an attempt, Allar can be finishing greater than 65% of his passes. And also you’d prefer to assume that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton can be averaging greater than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, one other star again, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, a number of damaged tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have accomplished their jobs, and tight finish Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. However Allar and Singleton have not been as sharp as needed. Can they flip it on now that the season is de facto beginning? Particularly in opposition to this protection?

The Oregon cross protection has appeared implausible up to now, and each star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one cross breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have appeared the half. As with PSU, the run protection has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive entrance remains to be settling in — however the Geese are forcing a great deal of passing downs and three-and-outs.

I used to be not sure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season as a result of it could be counting on so many new starters, however the Geese are fourth in factors per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in total SP+. It appears as if issues are going fairly properly. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as computerized as coordinator Will Stein might need, finishing 75% of his passes with only one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has additionally linked on 4 of seven downfield pictures of greater than 30 yards. His QB radar is almost an ideal circle now.

Working again Jayden Limar loved a star flip throughout Noah Whittington‘s harm absence, however now Whittington ought to be again. It has all labored. Even in opposition to a top-40 Northwestern protection, the Geese scored on six of 9 drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. However that is nonetheless the largest sport of Moore’s profession, and it will likely be performed in opposition to among the best defenses within the nation in entrance of perhaps faculty soccer’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no much less). It is not possible to know a staff is prepared for that till it proves it.

Present line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3

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Bama has quite a bit to lose at Georgia

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)

At this level final yr, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.

First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 sport that featured an enormous Bulldogs comeback and perhaps the best play of the season. Then, they rotated and misplaced to Vanderbilt within the upset of the yr. In a beautiful occasion of symmetry, Bama as soon as once more will get Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. However the challenges will not cease there. Six of the Tide’s subsequent seven opponents rank sixteenth or higher in SP+, and due to their dreadful Week 1 displaying at Florida State, they do not have a lot margin for error. In the event that they lose in Athens on Saturday, of their first highway journey since Tallahassee, they could have none.

Since their sport in opposition to FSU, the Tide have been nearly good. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin clearly aren’t superb, however Bama overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by a mixed 48.4 factors in opposition to the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in factors per possession, although its one-dimensionality might turn out to be a difficulty: The Tide are 18th in passing success charge* however 87th in speeding success charge and are due to this fact throwing much more incessantly than the nationwide common. Towards Wisconsin, Bama working backs carried 15 occasions for simply 45 yards, however it did not matter as a result of quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards in opposition to ULM. Like I mentioned: nearly good.)

(* Success charge: how incessantly an offense is gaining 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)

That pass-heavy ratio in all probability will not change Saturday as a result of if you are going to transfer the ball on Georgia, it is by means of the air: The Dawgs are tenth in speeding success charge allowed however 86th in opposition to the cross. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and 4 touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: 4 targets, 4 catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb ought to discover matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and maybe Isaiah Horton, who has caught 9 of 9 passes for 105 yards and a couple of scores — to use.

The Georgia run protection is de facto robust, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles in opposition to the run with 4 run stops (tackles at or behind the road). However regardless of blitzing an honest quantity, the Dawgs rank simply 102nd in sack charge and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. With out marked enchancment there, Bama would possibly get away with out having to run a lot.

After sleepwalking by means of the Austin Peay sport in Week 2, the Georgia offense wakened when it needed to in opposition to Tennessee. The Dawgs had been hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or extra yards, 4 of 9 or fewer — primarily as a result of unfavorable performs derailed some drives (one thing that proper sort out Earnest Greene III‘s continued harm points will not assist). However Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and a couple of touchdowns on third and fourth down.

Effectivity ranges are strong regardless of the unfavorable performs, however huge performs are a difficulty.

You’d slightly be close to USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is simply 3-for-11 on passes thrown greater than 20 yards downfield — a kind of was the game-saving, fourth-down landing lob to London Humphrey in opposition to Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some huge gainers off quick, fast passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, however this is not a naturally explosive offense.

Alabama’s protection hasn’t created practically sufficient unfavorable performs — the Tide are 68th in sack charge and 83rd in stuff charge — and their opponents’ third-down conversion charge has risen in every sport. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That might make them weak to Georgia’s quick sport, however they might counter that considerably with big-play prevention: They acquired burned for 4 good points of 25 or extra in opposition to Florida State, however they’ve given up only one such play since.

As a result of Georgia saved itself in opposition to Tennessee with one more additional time win (its previous three wins in opposition to energy convention groups went to OT), the Dawgs have rather less to lose Saturday. However that is the enjoyable factor about faculty soccer: attempt to inform the 93,033 in attendance that one staff wants this one somewhat greater than the opposite. Large video games will at all times really feel like large video games, and Bama-Georgia will at all times be an enormous sport.

Present line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1

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Ole Miss’ revenge or one other LSU thriller?

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)

In 5 seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents 5 occasions. You can say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I assume that will make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, particularly as a result of it in all probability prevented an Ole Miss nationwide title.) For the following 60 years, although, some of these conferences had been sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to determine the SEC West, however that was about it till final yr, when the Tigers gained a 29-26 additional time thriller with out main for a second.

Ole Miss completed final season second in SP+, however three heartbreaking losses saved them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed alternative as a result of how typically can Ole Miss count on to area a staff that good? Effectively, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and so they’ve already avenged one among 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.

It seems to be like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will begin once more for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State switch has accomplished 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with solely two sacks, including 198 non-sack speeding yards and two extra scores. The method with Chambliss has been easy: don’t fret about difficult intermediate passing, simply woo defensive backs near the road of scrimmage with relentless quick passing, then hit ’em deep. He has accomplished 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or extra yards downfield.

Notice the large hole in the course of that cross map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of working again Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III able to gaining strong yardage on quick passes, the Rebels have lots of methods to remain on schedule. That is essential as a result of LSU dominates when groups get off schedule.

Opponents are simply 2-for-26 in opposition to LSU on third-and-7 or extra, and the Tigers have but to permit greater than 10 factors in a sport. Brian Kelly did properly within the switch portal by including former USF defensive sort out Bernard Gooden up entrance (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 compelled fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have focused Delane’s man 20 occasions, and he has allowed simply three completions with a choose and 4 breakups.

The LSU protection has managed video games so properly that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t needed to take many possibilities. He has thrown solely 11 passes greater than 20 yards downfield, and he has accomplished solely two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing quite a bit due to LSU’s unproven line and a poor run sport, however Nussmeier is finishing 73% of all his different passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight finish Bauer Sharp have all caught at the very least 11 balls.

The passing sport has been sharp sufficient {that a} dreadful run sport hasn’t but value the Tigers. However whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in speeding success charge. Caden Durham acquired harm final week in opposition to Southeastern Louisiana, however he is averaging solely 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with extra yards after contact) extra touches won’t be a foul thought.

The Tigers’ reliance on the cross creates an fascinating distinction: Ole Miss’ cross protection has been environment friendly (18th in passing success charge allowed), however the run protection has been terrible (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding hardly ever blitzes, and Insurgent defenders hardly ever find yourself within the backfield, however they do a great job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have accomplished simply 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You progress the ball on Ole Miss on the bottom, however LSU strikes the ball by means of the air. We love some good narrative rigidity!

Present line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5

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The No. 1 staff heads west

No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It seems standard knowledge has forgotten concerning the Washington Huskies. The 2023 nationwide runners-up rank first nationally in factors per drive and ninth in yards per play, they’ve overwhelmed three overwhelmed opponents by a mean of 56-18, and so they boast one of many nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking again Jonah Coleman. However they’ve zero AP ballot votes. How?

Granted, they in all probability will not get any votes subsequent week both as a result of they’ll in all probability lose to Ohio State. The highest-ranked Buckeyes took every week off after shifting to 3-0, and so they head west with among the best defenses within the nation.

With security Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in sort out Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes doubtless have the instruments to frustrate a younger quarterback like Williams, and contemplating Washington’s banged-up protection ranks 61st in factors allowed per drive with out having performed a top-80 offense (per SP+), it is exhausting to see the Huskies making sufficient stops.

Regardless of one-third of its video games coming in opposition to Texas’ wonderful protection, Ohio State ranks second in passing success charge and completion charge. The Buckeyes’ run sport is not practically as robust as we’re used to seeing — then once more, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — however quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (mixed: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I do not understand how UW disrupts that reference to star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah can also be out.)

So why am I giving this sport marquee therapy as a substitute of sticking it within the playlist beneath? Just a few causes:

• That is Sayin’s first highway begin, and loads of superior, younger quarterbacks have came upon the highway early of their careers. Washington additionally blitzes quite a bit and has at the very least one wonderful cross rusher in Jacob Lane.

• Internet YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is likely one of the nation’s greatest groups at grinding out YAC and permitting none for opponents.

• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion charge (75.0%) and, mixed with Coleman efficiently preventing for additional yards, might transfer the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s protection.

• Everybody fails a take a look at sooner or later, however in 5 profession begins, Williams has accomplished 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack speeding yards and just one interception. He is unbelievable, and there is nothing like a go to from the No. 1 staff to introduce your self to the world.

Sure, Ohio State in all probability wins. However Washington won’t want many breaks to take this one right down to the wire.

Present line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0

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YAC kings in motion

That is proper, this week’s key phrase is YAC. Yards after contact are the key weapon for groups exceeding expectations, and fairly a couple of Week 5 video games will spotlight 2025’s YAC kings. That features two video games pitting YAC kings in opposition to each other.

No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).

FSU has vaulted again into the highest 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our creativeness. The Seminoles are fifth in internet YAC and second in speeding yards per sport — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone again to his speeding roots, and it is fairly spicy to look at. Virginia, nevertheless, is eighth in internet YAC and has leaped from 74th to forty second in SP+. An offense with seven switch starters, together with RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved nearly as a lot as Florida State’s.

Present line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5

No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).

Indiana (sixth in internet YAC) hits the highway to face an Iowa staff (ninth in internet YAC) that has upset 4 top-15 groups at dwelling previously decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers must be careful for a letdown after final week’s Illinois blowout, however whereas Iowa’s offense has scored 30 factors thrice this season, the one respectable protection the Hawkeyes have confronted, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium might want to summon a great deal of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.

Present line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7

No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).

Two weeks in the past, USC (seventh in internet YAC) wobbled however saved it collectively in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern journey ought to be trickier. Illinois acquired YAC’d to items by Indiana and can in all probability reply with physicality, however the Illini nonetheless should decelerate Jayden Maiava and an incredible USC passing sport.

Present line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3

No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).

BYU (fourth in internet YAC) is simply imply. The Cougars rank first in factors allowed per drive and power tons of unfavorable performs, and working again LJ Martin is a superb safety blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense discovered its footing final week in opposition to Wyoming, however the BYU protection is a special impediment.

Present line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1

Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).

Should you’re a fan of the multiview field, this one will likely be a beautiful complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not solely do you get one other glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in internet YAC), however you additionally get to look at a Rice possibility offense averaging 246 speeding yards per sport.

Present line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7

Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).

Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the first driver of NC State’s 3-1 begin. The protection offers up far too many huge performs, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. However you are watching this one for Smothers.

Present line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5

UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).

OK, you needn’t watch a lot of this, particularly throughout a loaded prime-time slot. However any glimpse of Mizzou (second in internet YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (mixed: 898 yards and eight TDs) is well worth the effort.

Present line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5

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Week 5 chaos superfecta

We’re as soon as once more utilizing this house to will chaos into existence, 4 fastidiously curated video games with fairly huge level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. Because of San Diego State’s stunning blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our energy is barely rising stronger.

This week, SP+ says there’s solely a 46% likelihood that Indiana (72% win likelihood at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Somebody’s struggling a letdown sport after both an enormous win (Indiana or Memphis) or a protracted flight (Utah or Houston).

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Week 5 playlist

Listed here are some extra video games you must take note of if you’d like absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each data and leisure views.

Friday night

No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a few weeks, however ASU has formally checked into the 2025 season with a straightforward win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Solar Devils have not misplaced a convention sport in additional than 11 months, however TCU has very the half in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you have a hell of a Friday night time!

Present line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1

Early Saturday

No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (midday, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have gained three video games by a mixed 113 factors and misplaced 4 by a mixed 11. That is fairly powerful to do, and one among them will head into October with a shedding report regardless of apparent upside. I will be actually upset if we do not get a monitor meet right here, contemplating their seven video games have averaged 69.7 whole factors to date.

Present line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4

Cincinnati at Kansas (midday, TNT). I feel Cincinnati is perhaps good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri within the fourth quarter and beat three different opponents (together with West Virginia) by a mixed 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success charge — second speeding, third passing — and the protection ranks first in yards allowed per profitable play. In the event that they work out how to not utterly stink on third downs, the Bearcats might pull an upset.

Present line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2

Duke at Syracuse (midday, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU switch — and new Syracuse starter — was simply 3-for-8 in opposition to Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, however his 18-yard landing cross to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s cross protection has been surprisingly disastrous this season, however the Blue Devils can rush the passer and probably stress Collins.

Present line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1

Louisville at Pitt (midday, ESPN2). Louisville has but to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, however the Cardinals have a great cross protection and perhaps probably the most explosive working again corps in FBS. Pitt, in the meantime, has an explosive passing sport and perhaps the very best run protection Louisville will face. I assume Louisville’s actually good, however Pitt is fairly good at making issues messy and thriving within the chaos.

Present line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7

Rutgers at Minnesota (midday, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will attempt to entice a recognized rock-fight lover right into a wide-open battle. Each groups are coming off irritating losses — Minnesota misplaced by 13 to a Cal staff that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa right into a monitor meet however misplaced 38-28. The loser of this one simply hopes to get to 6-6.

Present line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2

No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (midday, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 within the first and third quarters however has been outscored 23-10 within the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks in the past however had been outscored 34-10 from there. That is in all probability a foul signal in opposition to a Tech staff that appears to have some 60-minute endurance (the Jackets are at the very least +15 in each quarter).

Present line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7

Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We do not but understand how good these groups are — USU has overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by 15.0 factors per sport (tenth nationally) whereas Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are doubtless fairly a bit higher than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but when Miles Davis and the USU run sport get going, they might make this uncomfortable for a bit.

Present line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7

Saturday afternoon

Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these groups have performed video games determined by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores fairly excessive on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it is an enormous sport for each groups: Auburn is a projected favourite in solely two video games the remainder of the season and must provoke a rally earlier than Georgia and Missouri come to city subsequent month. A&M, in the meantime, must get to 6-0 earlier than a three-game SEC highway journey. A&M offers up a number of huge performs, however Auburn does not make many.

Present line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7

No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its monitor meet days, scoring at the very least 41 factors in each sport and permitting at the very least 24 in three. The Vols are additionally superb. Mississippi State is perhaps too. The Bulldogs have overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by 9.5 factors per sport this season, and, properly, in the event that they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.

Present line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5

UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I am unable to inform you to truly watch this sport — I’ve a powerful sense of morbid curiosity, however it solely goes up to now. Nonetheless, I carry this sport up for one cause: UCLA has a 22% likelihood of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and that is the one sport remaining by which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.

Present line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0

Saturday night

Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The primary Arizona-ISU sport since 1968 is an enormous one: The groups are a mixed 7-0, and the winner will likely be within the high tier of Massive 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU try and cross — a semi-frequent incidence due to a shaky run sport — it will likely be power vs. power. Becht is kind of environment friendly, however ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.

Present line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8

Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run sport and an aggressive protection. App State is struggling offensively, however the Mountaineers’ protection ranks second nationally in havoc charge (TFLs, passes defended and compelled fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they rating sufficient to make issues fascinating?

Present line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9

Late Saturday

FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the one late sport in FBS, and the Massive Sky will get a nationwide showcase. Idaho has misplaced a pair of FBS video games by simply six mixed factors and boasts a brilliant enjoyable dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can both throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per sport) or run by means of you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Massive Sky loves a great rock struggle, however this one has monitor meet potential.

SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1

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Smaller-school showcase

We at all times save a shout-out for the wonderful decrease ranges of the game. Along with Idaho-Montana, listed below are three extra video games you must monitor.

FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 18 South Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). Earlier than the season, I assumed this is perhaps the FCS sport of the yr. South Dakota stumbled early, nevertheless, and can now attempt to beat FCS’ greatest staff with turnovers and random huge performs. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, profitable three video games by a mixed 138-17. The ability corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7

FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League appeared implausible in its season debut final week, and these groups — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a mixed 105-7 — had been nearly as good as anybody. Each groups created a great deal of big-pass performs, and whoever prevents them higher on this one (in all probability Harvard) strikes to 2-0.

SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1

Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins each dramatic (additional time over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes an enormous take a look at. The Cal Vulcans are permitting 4.8 yards per play and forcing a great deal of turnovers, and security Alexie Sangster Jr. is perhaps among the best DBs in Division II.

SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0