Bills vs. Chiefs: AFC foes, more similar than you would think

The leaves are falling, the recent takes are flowing, the clocks are turning again — and it’s as soon as once more time for a gathering between two of the NFL’s finest.

Welcome to Spherical 10 of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, or extra precisely, the Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-2) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

Each groups have completed atop their respective divisions for the previous 5 seasons and have met in every common season since 2020 — plus 4 postseason video games in that span. After Sunday, the ten matchups will mark essentially the most between beginning quarterbacks age 30 or youthful from totally different divisions (three greater than another matchup). Additionally it is tied for essentially the most matchups over a six-season span between two groups from totally different divisions (1972-77, Steelers-Raiders).

Kansas Metropolis has had the benefit within the playoffs, winners of all 4 postseason matchups. However the Payments have gained 4 of 5 regular-season conferences, together with the previous 4 in a row. The Payments’ protection has been the main distinction. Within the common season, the Payments have allowed 20.8 factors per sport (whereas scoring 25.8). Within the postseason, the Payments have allowed 34.8 factors per sport (whereas scoring 28.3).

There may be potential for an eleventh matchup this postseason, however each groups have actual competitors inside their respective divisions and different AFC threats, together with the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts.

Each groups have defensive traces with depth points and MVP quarterbacks who’ve needed to carry their offenses, at occasions. The Chiefs lately bought again receiver Rashee Rice from suspension, however the Payments are nonetheless searching for a spark within the passing sport.

This sport is a stepping-stone for each groups of their quests for a Tremendous Bowl title and will decide seeding later within the season. The Chiefs need to match the Nineties Payments as the one groups to achieve 4 straight Tremendous Bowls. The Payments have not reached the Tremendous Bowl since 1993, the tip of that run within the 90s, and are searching for a powerful remaining season at their historic Highmark Stadium.

ESPN’s Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor and Payments reporter Alaina Getzenberg break down the matchup and the place the 2 groups are in Week 9:

What’s totally different concerning the Chiefs and Payments from final 12 months?

Chiefs: Mahomes may have extra passing choices than he had a 12 months in the past. Receivers Rice and Hollywood Brown have helped the Chiefs’ offense grow to be an explosive unit once more, and even speedy receiver Xavier Worthy has proven enchancment in his route operating since his rookie season. The Chiefs have scored at the least 28 factors in every of their previous 5 video games, so this can be a a lot better offense than a 12 months in the past.

A lot of the eye for the Chiefs, winners in 5 of their previous six video games, has been on the offense. The Chiefs’ protection, nevertheless, seems to be extra ready. The Chiefs have surrendered simply two touchdowns up to now 10 quarters, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo ought to have all of his projected starters obtainable. The linemen round move rusher Chris Jones — defensive ends George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and Mike Danna — are performing higher than at the start of the season, too.

One of many greatest themes for the Chiefs this season is Reid’s ultra-aggressiveness. With Mahomes on the sphere, the Chiefs have transformed 14 of 16 fourth-down makes an attempt (87.5%) — the very best success price of groups which have had 10 or extra makes an attempt.

Payments: After a scorching begin to the season, the Payments misplaced two in a row earlier than the staff’s bye week. Accidents have piled up on protection, particularly at defensive deal with, and continued changes can be wanted.

The looming commerce deadline marks a possibility for the Payments, who’ve struggled with consistency within the downfield passing sport. The struggles have performed a component in Allen being sacked 14 occasions — the identical quantity he had all of final season. He additionally has 4 interceptions, two shy of final season’s whole.

Working again James Cook III has been a fair larger risk on the bottom this 12 months because the Payments search a balanced offense, main the league in dashing yards per sport at 107.6. Not like earlier years, the Payments need the passing sport to match the dashing assault, one thing coach Sean McDermott mentioned was necessary this week.

There are some new faces alongside the staff’s defensive position, together with the offseason addition of Joey Bosa, who leads the league in stress proportion (18.2%).

This 12 months, the Payments and Chiefs have extra rivals for the highest seed within the AFC, growing the significance of profitable this sport.

Talking of these different AFC candidates …

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Riddick: Payments’ roster is designed to beat Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Louis Riddick explains why a Week 9 loss to the Chiefs at dwelling could be a devastating blow for the Payments.

Each groups have competitors within the division for the primary time in a number of seasons. How will they carry out?

Chiefs: Reid acknowledged earlier than the season how a lot the Chiefs’ AFC West rivals improved. The Los Angeles Chargers proved that by beating the Chiefs in São Paulo, Brazil, within the season opener. The Denver Broncos lead the division and have a 6-2 report coming into Sunday behind the NFL’s high protection and Bo Nix‘s improved play in latest weeks.

The matchup in opposition to the Payments is the beginning of a essential stretch for the Chiefs, who nonetheless have 4 divisional video games left. After their bye week, the Chiefs will face the Broncos and the red-hot Colts earlier than their showcase sport on Thanksgiving Day in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs are hoping to seize their tenth consecutive AFC West crown, which might assure them at the least one dwelling playoff sport. The Chiefs’ rematch in opposition to the Chargers, set for Dec. 14, can be a possibility for example how a lot their offense has improved because the opener.

With three losses already, the best method for the Chiefs to regain the division lead is to comb the Broncos. Reid, Mahomes and the remainder of the staff may have loads of motivation. Ten months in the past, within the regular-season finale, the Broncos, needing a win to clinch the convention’s remaining playoff spot, beat Kansas Metropolis 38-0. One may argue the Chiefs, who had already clinched the highest seed and rested their starters for the sport, did not take pleasure in Broncos coach Sean Payton operating up the rating.

Payments: The New England Patriots are an actual risk to the Payments’ quest for a sixth straight AFC East title. Whereas the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are close to the underside of the convention, Buffalo is second within the division at 5-2 behind the 6-2 Patriots, who’re on a five-game profitable streak.

The Patriots have the tiebreaker in opposition to the Payments after profitable the Week 5 assembly, which ended Buffalo’s 14-game dwelling profitable streak. The Payments got here into the season 26-6 vs. the AFC East within the common season since 2020.

Final season, the Payments grew to become the seventh staff since 1980 to clinch a division title with 5 video games remaining in a season. That is not wanting probably this season.

The Payments may even the rating with the Patriots in December, however for now, Buffalo must sustain with New England to have an opportunity on the division title.

Allen and Mahomes are two of the NFL’s high QBs, however have they got the supporting casts to win the Tremendous Bowl or make one other deep run?

Chiefs: The Chiefs seem prepared for one more run in January and February. The Chiefs are one of many healthiest groups on the halfway level of the common season, and that is one of many greatest advantages for Mahomes. He has his full complement of move catchers, together with tight finish Travis Kelce and receivers in Rice, Worthy, Brown and deep-threat Tyquan Thornton.

Maybe the most important motive the Chiefs are prepared for a playoff run is that they’ve appeared to resolve their greatest situation from final season: left deal with. The Chiefs reached the Tremendous Bowl final season regardless of utilizing 4 gamers — Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris, D.J. Humphries and All-Professional left guard Joe Thuney — on the place. The instability impacted Mahomes, who was sacked a career-high six occasions within the Chiefs’ blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LIX regardless of not being blitzed within the sport; Mahomes additionally had a career-worst common of simply 245 passing yards per sport final season. However this season, the Chiefs have gotten improved play from rookie left deal with Josh Simmons, their first-round choose, and Jaylon Moore, their greatest acquisition in free company.

With higher safety, Mahomes has scrambled extra usually due to need moderately than want. Every of his three landing passes in Monday’s win over the Washington Commanders occurred with him having at the least 4 seconds to throw.

“It is big once you’re getting the time to sit down within the pocket and form of undergo your reads and make that stuff occur,” Mahomes mentioned Wednesday. “It provides you confidence that you simply’re seeing the proper stuff. In case you have confidence, then you’ll be able to go on the market and throw it the best way you wish to throw it. I believe that is big, and all of it begins up entrance with the O-line.”

The primary situation for the Chiefs’ protection is the inconsistency of the move rush. Jones remains to be one of many league’s most dominant inside rushers, usually commanding two linemen to dam him always. The Chiefs may look so as to add one other lineman earlier than the commerce deadline.

The Chiefs will enter Highmark Stadium with the league’s second-best protection, which has allowed simply 16.4 factors per sport. One motive for the success is that Spagnuolo may need the league’s finest trio of linebackers in Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. The three linebackers have been efficient in limiting the manufacturing of some standout operating backs — together with Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs and rookie Ashton Jeanty. The most important check for Spagnuolo’s linebackers can be Cook dinner, who has been wonderful this season.

Though the Chiefs do not generate many turnovers, they deal with properly within the open area.

“Every week, we’re always attempting to enhance [and] get higher on the fundamentals, the methods, no matter it’s,” mentioned Danna, who recorded an interception and sack final week. “It is about weeks of preparation. We take that very critically, training with a function. There’s all the time room for enchancment. The second you are feeling such as you’re good, you get complacent, and we do not wish to take our foot off the gasoline pedal. We do not have [any] time or [any] room for that.”

Payments: A giant query in Orchard Park is that if the Payments will commerce for a large receiver earlier than the deadline for a second straight 12 months.

Second-year receiver Keon Coleman has not emerged the best way the staff had hoped. After a splashy begin in Week 1 with eight receptions for 112 yards and a landing within the win vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Coleman has averaged 25.8 yards per sport and scored only one landing. His lack of consistency is a matter.

“I simply do my job, man, do my 1/11 after which everyone else do their 1/11, and when the move sport actually is required for us to actually do what must do, we will capitalize,” Coleman mentioned.

Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats heading into the Week 8 sport vs. the Carolina Panthers, Allen had focused a downfield open receiver (passes of 10-plus air yards with 3-plus yards of goal separation) on a career-low 6.7% of his passes, the seventh-lowest price within the NFL on the time. On throws of 20-plus air yards, Allen has 9 completions (fifteenth), 238 yards (twenty third) and two interceptions.

The Payments’ offense has Cook dinner, who has been electrical this season, and was dynamic in Buffalo’s loss within the AFC Championship Recreation final season to the Chiefs. He’s coming off a career-high 216-yard dashing efficiency. Large receiver Khalil Shakir can also be fifth within the league in yards after the catch (293).

On protection, the Payments have been decimated by accidents this season, with no place hit tougher than defensive deal with. Ed Oliver is out indefinitely due to a torn left biceps, whereas DaQuan Jones (calf) will miss a 3rd straight sport.

In Sunday’s sport vs. Kansas Metropolis, Buffalo wants rookie Deone Walker and veterans Jordan Phillips and Larry Ogunjobi to be impactful contributors.

The excellent news for the protection is that linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are trending towards their returns. It additionally would not be shocking if rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston takes on a much bigger function in his second sport due to the velocity of the Chiefs’ vast receivers (Hairston ran a 4.28 40-yard sprint on the NFL scouting mix).

How have Mahomes and Allen performed up to now?

Chiefs: Mahomes is among the main MVP candidates as a result of he has recorded a league-leading 17 passing touchdowns and dedicated simply 4 interceptions — and two of these turnovers are after Kelce bobbled the ball. Not like final 12 months, Mahomes can also be utilizing his legs extra usually. He has generated 280 dashing yards and 4 dashing touchdowns. He’s on tempo to interrupt his profession excessive of 389 dashing yards, which he set in 2023.

In every of the previous six video games, Mahomes has unfold his passes to at the least six totally different teammates. A part of the rationale for Mahomes’ success is that the offensive line has given him loads of time. On move makes an attempt of over 4 seconds in final week’s win over the Commanders, Mahomes accomplished 8 of 9 passes for 149 yards and three touchdowns, based on Subsequent Gen Stats.

“His means to do it on the transfer is exclusive,” Reid mentioned Wednesday of Mahomes. “You see slightly little bit of that from Josh, too. Pat’s bought nice imaginative and prescient, and I do know [Hall of Famer] Troy Aikman talked about [that]. He goes, ‘Man, his imaginative and prescient is unbelievable.’ He says [Mahomes] appears to see all the pieces. He is blessed with that half.”

Payments: Allen definitely hasn’t been at his finest this season. The seven-year veteran mentioned within the first half in opposition to the Panthers, he was not trusting his toes or eyes sufficient.

“There’s nonetheless the need and the starvation to proceed to get higher with myself mechanically,” Allen mentioned. “And simply ensuring I am doing the proper issues and looking for myself and put myself in one of the best spots attainable to ship one of the best ball that I can to our receivers to go make performs for us.”

Allen has a 37 Complete QBR in three video games since Week 5 (twenty sixth out of 31 certified quarterbacks) and has a Complete QBR under 55 in three straight video games, tied for the second-longest streak of his profession and longest since 2019 (5 straight).

There is not any doubt he stays one of many league’s finest dual-threat quarterbacks. He has his highest completion proportion since 2020 (68%) and has stored the Payments’ offense in video games this 12 months.

Allen all the time appears to rise to the event for large video games.

What would be the key for every quarterback to win on Sunday?

Chiefs: Limiting adverse performs

In final week’s win over the Commanders, the Chiefs had two turnovers on their first two drives. They cannot afford to make comparable errors in opposition to the Payments. One motive the Chiefs have performed with the lead throughout a lot of their three-game profitable streak is that they have not dedicated many errors, whether or not it is Mahomes being sacked, him throwing an interception or certainly one of his teammates committing a penalty.

In final 12 months’s loss to the Payments, Mahomes threw two interceptions, one on the opening drive and the opposite on the finish of the sport. If Mahomes has a clear sheet, and spreads the ball to his teammates, the Chiefs ought to have an opportunity to attain 30 factors.

Payments: Josh Allen being Superman

The Payments beat the Panthers nearly solely on the power of Cook dinner and the offensive line, however that sport plan is unlikely to work in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. As an alternative, Buffalo’s finest likelihood of success is Allen having a signature standout efficiency in an enormous sport, together with Cook dinner’s brilliance on the bottom.

The query this time is whether or not the protection is wholesome sufficient to help Allen and if he has the receivers to get the job executed.