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Invoice Connelly
The school soccer season is teetering between order and chaos. On one hand, we principally have three groups assured a playoff bid at this level (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M) and one other few that merely must win video games wherein they’re closely favored to wrap issues up (Texas Tech, Georgia, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, perhaps Alabama). That does not go away many open spots.
However, these open spots have tons of semi-realistic contenders — not less than 22 groups nonetheless have a puncher’s probability — and the ACC and American convention races might nonetheless be blown open once more. The Huge 12, Convention USA, Mountain West, MAC and SEC races are removed from settled too. (After which there’s the entire “Ole Miss gearing up for a playoff bid and praying to hold on to its coach” factor.)
There’s a lot to maintain observe of Saturday, in different phrases. Keep caffeinated and preserve the distant in your hand always! This is all the things it’s essential comply with in a busy Week 13.
All occasions Jap, all video games on Saturday until in any other case famous.
An enormous one within the Huge Ten (West)
No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The old-school Huge Ten portion of Oregon’s Huge Ten schedule is over, and now the Geese will end up with previous mates USC and Washington. The 9-1 Geese nonetheless have some enterprise to deal with, playoff-wise, however they will be favored in each video games, and so they ought to nonetheless be OK at 10-2. At 8-2 and fifteenth within the CFP rankings, USC clearly has to win out to have an opportunity.
It is going to be elite vs. elite when the Trojans have the ball.
Key statistical rankings
Yards per play: USC offense second, Oregon protection third
Factors per drive: USC offense fifth, Oregon protection ninth
Success fee*: USC offense fourth, Oregon protection 18th
Yards per profitable play: Oregon protection first, USC offense eleventh
(*Success fee: How continuously an offense is gaining 50% of essential yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
USC’s Jayden Maiava nonetheless ranks first nationally in Whole QBR, as he has for a lot of the season. His mixture of sack avoidance and big-play passing is uncommon — solely 9.9% of pressures on him turn into sacks (fifth amongst power-conference QBs) and he averages 14.3 yards per completion (fourth).
In Makai Lemon, Maiava has an all-around star at receiver — he has made 61% of his catches out of the slot and 35% lined up extensive, and although he does a number of injury from screens, hook routes and different brief passes, he additionally has caught 14 of 19 passes for 517 yards and three touchdowns on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. He has an elite catch fee at almost each stage.
Final week, towards the very best protection USC has confronted this season (Iowa), Lemon caught 10 passes for 153 yards. Now comes the new finest protection the Trojans have confronted: Oregon ranks third in defensive SP+ and second in yards allowed per dropback. The Geese have but to surrender greater than 5.3 yards per play in any sport. USC has but to common lower than 5.5.
That will probably be a terrific matchup, however whether or not this can be a nice sport is determined by USC’s protection. At thirty seventh in defensive SP+, it is comfortably the very best group Lincoln Riley has fielded in Los Angeles, however towards the one two top-20 offenses they’ve confronted, per SP+ (Illinois and Notre Dame), the Trojans gave up 34.0 factors per sport and seven.2 yards per play. Oregon ranks tenth in offensive SP+.
The cross protection is stable, however the Trojans rank 126th in dashing success fee allowed and 103rd in stuff fee (run stops at or behind the road). That is fairly scary towards an Oregon staff that has grown hit-or-miss via the air however nearly all the time brings it on the bottom.
Previously 5 video games, along with his receiving corps struggling via accidents, Dante Moore‘s Whole QBR has been beneath 42.0 3 times and over 91.0 twice. However the Geese are second nationally in each dashing success fee and yards per carry, and so they have countless depth at operating again: 4 backs have rushed not less than 42 occasions, and three (Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr.) common not less than 7.0 yards per carry. Groups could make stops in the event that they drive Moore to always make performs on passing downs, however it’s onerous to ensure USC will ever knock the Geese off schedule.
Present line: Geese -9.5 | SP+ projection: Geese by 10.6 | FPI projection: Geese by 6.0
Can Oklahoma and BYU deal with their enterprise?
Oklahoma and BYU are in stable form playoff-wise, however SP+ offers the Sooners solely a 46% probability of successful their subsequent two video games, whereas the Cougars are at 52%. Now will not be the time for a misstep.
No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)
Assault the opponent’s offensive line, punish the quarterback’s inevitable errors, win the turnover battle, dominate within the purple zone. It is necessary to have an identification and Oklahoma most definitely has one. The Sooners pressured three turnovers, returned one for a landing, and gave up solely two touchdowns in 9 journeys inside their 40 as they gained by six at Tennessee. Then they pressured three extra turnovers, returned one other one for a landing, blocked a area objective try and in some way beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa regardless of being outgained by 184 yards. Of their previous six video games, their turnover margin is plus-8 in 4 wins and minus-4 in two losses.
If Missouri’s quarterback scenario have been slightly steadier, this sport can be a close to toss-up. The Tigers drive three-and-outs 42.6% of the time (fifth nationally), and although they will often be susceptible to large performs, OU does not create lots of these. They’re blissful to have interaction in area place warfare with a run sport that includes Ahmad Hardy, the nation’s main rusher, and they’re the nation’s leader in net YAC.
If this have been an old-school, rushing-and-punting battle, Mizzou would have a terrific shot, however quarterback play issues. OU’s John Mateer hasn’t been superb since his return from a September hand damage (previous 5 video games: 63.2 Whole QBR, 5.0 yards per dropback, 2-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) however he’ll give the Sooners a bonus over both of Mizzou’s two quarterbacks: A restricted Beau Pribula, who’s attempting to hurry again after dislocating his ankle 4 weeks in the past, or, extra possible, true freshman Matt Zollers, who has produced a dismal 21.9 Whole QBR in two begins.
The winner of the turnover battle most likely takes this one, and with the best way defensive finish Taylor Wein and the Sooners’ defensive entrance can create havoc — they common 10.2 tackles for loss, and nobody else tops 8.5 — errors from Mizzou’s QB of alternative will most likely make the distinction.
Present line: OU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.5
No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati (8 p.m., Fox)
Texas Tech, BYU and Utah are the three nastiest, most bodily groups within the Huge 12, and they’re a mixed 27-4 in 2025 — 3-3 towards one another and 24-1 towards everybody else. BYU responded to a loss at Tech with a 44-13 blowout of TCU; now the Cougars face a Cincinnati staff that has run aground, dropping to Utah (45-14) and Arizona (30-24), and falling to thirty seventh in SP+.
Cincy quarterback Brendan Sorsby, so good for a lot of the season, went simply 26-for-61 (43%) with two touchdowns and three picks in these losses, and never even nice manufacturing from operating again Tawee Walker might save both sport. The Bearcats’ protection has been a hindrance for a lot of the season, and all of a sudden the offense is not carrying its weight.
BYU’s offense nonetheless battles inconsistency at occasions, however towards defenses ranked thirtieth or worse in SP+ they’re averaging 38.8 factors and 6.5 yards per play. Does Cincinnati nonetheless have sufficient gasoline within the tank to match that?
Present line: BYU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 4.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 4.4
One other week of readability vs. chaos within the ACC
The present ACC title eventualities vary from easy to spectacularly messy. If Georgia Tech beats Pitt on Saturday and Virginia beats Virginia Tech subsequent week, the Yellow Jackets would nearly definitely play the Cavaliers. But when Pitt beats Tech, the Panthers might clinch with an underdog win over Miami subsequent week. SMU, in the meantime, would profit from a Pitt win, however the Mustangs have two difficult video games left (Louisville, at Cal).
Pitt at No. 16 Georgia Tech (7 p.m., ESPN)
Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel lastly seemed like a freshman final week towards Notre Dame, going 16-for-33 with an interception and 4 sacks. The run sport went nowhere, star Desmond Reid acquired damage, and an honest defensive efficiency could not stop a 37-15 loss. However as Pat Narduzzi so elegantly put it last week, that sport did not actually matter. If the Panthers win their subsequent two, they may play for the ACC title.
Georgia Tech’s protection is way, a lot worse than Notre Dame’s. The Yellow Jackets rank 99th in yards allowed per carry (no sacks) and ninety fifth in yards allowed per dropback. They’re fairly good when opponents are not on time, however these eventualities are uncommon. Pitt ought to rating an honest quantity, however the Panthers nonetheless must decelerate Tech’s star quarterback Haynes King. In his previous six begins, he has averaged 291 passing yards and 93 non-sack dashing yards per sport — almost a 4,000/1,200 tempo.
The stakes are monumental for Tech over these subsequent three weeks: It might win the ACC and get long-awaited revenge on rival Georgia after final season’s heartbreak, or it might endure double heartbreak as a substitute. No stress.
Present line: Tech -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 2.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.8
Louisville at SMU (noon, ESPN2)
Two weeks in the past, Louisville had 42% of its snaps achieve zero or fewer yards, with three sacks and a great deal of stress on Miller Moss, and suffered an upset loss to Cal. Final week, the Cardinals have been extra environment friendly however produced 10 penalties, together with 4 on offensive linemen and blocking tight ends, and fell to Clemson. Glitches up entrance have ruined their ACC title and CFP hopes (operating again accidents have not helped), and now the very best they will hope to do is smash SMU’s.
Sadly for Louisville, SMU is sweet at creating offensive line glitches. The Mustangs are twenty fifth in stuff fee and thirty seventh in sack fee, and although they will surrender large performs as a trade-off — and their secondary has battled a number of accidents — Moss must be upright to make that occur.
Louisville’s protection could have a number of the identical benefits, not less than. SMU’s offense is bettering, however the Playing cards rank within the high 20 in yards allowed per each carry and dropback. Edge rusher Clev Lubin and slot nook Antonio Watts are excellent disruptors and can give Louisville an opportunity.
Present line: SMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 2.6 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.6
Protecting playoff hopes alive
Based on common playoff odds, there’s most likely about one CFP spot out there, at most, for the quintet of No. 12 Utah, No. 13 Miami, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 15 USC and No. 18 Michigan. Apart from USC, the opposite 4 are double-digit favorites this weekend, however they face distinctive challenges.
Kentucky at No. 14 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Vanderbilt acquired per week off to relaxation a tiring protection that had given up 82 factors in its previous two video games. If the Commodores can beat each Kentucky at house and Tennessee away, they will have stable CFP odds. With quarterback Diego Pavia taking part in in addition to ever, they’ve an opportunity.
However this is not the very best time to play Kentucky: Over the previous three video games, the 5-5 Wildcats have overachieved towards SP+ projections by 24.6 factors per sport, sufficient to rapidly leap from 66th to forty third in SP+. Cutter Boley has posted not less than a 78.0 Whole QBR in 5 of his previous six video games, and backs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell have mixed for 355 yards and 7 touchdowns prior to now two. Vanderbilt is used to trace meets at this level, however the Commodores cannot afford a misstep towards a sizzling opponent.
Present line: Vandy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 11.3 | FPI projection: Vandy by 7.7
No. 18 Michigan at Maryland (4 p.m., BTN)
If Michigan wins its final two video games, the Wolverines might give the CFP committee a large headache. At 18th, they want some assist to maneuver into playoff positioning, however a win over top-ranked Ohio State can be an unlimited enhance (and would possibly sneak them into the Huge Ten championship sport).
One situation: What number of occasions have they really seemed like a playoff staff this 12 months? Twice? They have been definitely spectacular within the 63-3 win over Central Michigan, and manhandling Washington 24-7 in mid-October was wonderful, however they’ve underachieved towards projections in 5 of the previous six video games. Maryland has been outscored by a median of 38-12 in November, however it’s most likely time for Michigan to begin trying the half, and probably in wet situations.
Present line: Michigan -13.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 9.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 10.5
No. 13 Miami at Virginia Tech (noon, ESPN)
In principle, I perceive the anger relating to Miami’s No. 13 CFP rating. The Hurricanes did beat No. 9 Notre Dame within the season opener, and so they have the identical variety of losses. Nonetheless, Notre Dame has misplaced solely to the No. 3 and No. 13 groups whereas beating No. 15 USC. Miami has the win over the Irish however has misplaced twice to unranked groups — taking part in timidly late in each video games — and has no different super-impressive wins on the résumé. No sympathy right here.
That stated, the Canes seemed phenomenal final week towards NC State regardless of rising damage points. It was their finest efficiency since about Week 3, and in the event that they preserve taking part in at that stage, they might rating some type factors. Tech did not have a lot left to supply towards Louisville or Florida State, however probably sloppy climate could be an element.
Present line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 23.3 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.8
Kansas State at No. 12 Utah (4 p.m., ESPN2)
Kansas State had one thing going for a bit, successful three of 4 to leap to 4-4, however after a pummeling towards Texas Tech, the Wildcats wanted 5 takeaways to outlive a dismal efficiency towards one of many worst Oklahoma State groups of our lifetimes. Their momentum has halted, and now they must face a imply and impressive Utah staff. The Utes have crushed just one SP+ top-50 opponent, however they’re eighth in SP+ as a result of their wins have come by a median of 48-12.
Okay-State’s Avery Johnson remains to be tremendous elusive, and the Wildcats’ run protection is respectable, however it’s onerous to think about Johnson escaping star John Henry Daley all sport, and it is onerous to think about the Wildcats knocking QB Devon Dampier and the Utah floor sport off target for lengthy.
Present line: Utah -17.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 15.3
Which G5 favourite falls this week?
We’re down to 3 main contenders for the Group of 5’s assured playoff spot: 9-1 James Madison, 9-1 North Texas and 8-2 Tulane. We have misplaced a front-runner for 2 straight weeks, so the truth that Tulane is the brand new highest-ranked staff would possibly spell doom for the Inexperienced Wave, however JMU additionally faces a tough house check. SP+ offers the three favorites solely a 48% probability of all successful.
No. 24 Tulane at Temple (3:45 p.m., ESPNU)
What does Temple have left within the tank? Okay.C. Keeler’s 5-5 Owls have been a nice shock and, at their finest, get high-level passing from Evan Simon and stable pursuit from linebackers Damien Ordonez and Cam’Ron Stewart. However they could have peaked a month in the past.
Tulane, in the meantime, stays onerous to belief. The Inexperienced Wave have crushed Memphis and East Carolina however no-showed towards UTSA in between. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff is pretty much as good as marketed, however the cross protection has been disastrous at occasions. If Temple regains its sharpness following a bye week, this could possibly be difficult.
Present line: Tulane -7.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 5.6 | FPI projection: Tulane by 4.2
Washington State at James Madison (1 p.m., ESPN+)
For the third time in six weeks, Wazzu travels east of the Mississippi River — this time to play in wet situations at 10 a.m. PT. However the Cougs are sizzling, having risen from 111th in SP+ in September to 69th, and so they’ve given up solely 11.5 factors per sport in a six-game stretch that included journeys to Virginia and Ole Miss.
We’ll see if JMU is simply too sizzling for that to matter. Led by defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira, the Dukes are eighth nationally in factors allowed per drive, and after a bumpy midseason stretch, the offense has averaged 52 factors over its previous 4 video games.
Present line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 14.5 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.2
North Texas at Rice (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Like Temple, Rice is a pleasantly shocking 5-5 in Scott Abell’s first season. His choice offense has had its moments, however the protection is growth or bust, and one assumes North Texas’ explosive offense, led by potential 4,000-yard passer Drew Mestemaker and 1,000-yard rusher Caleb Hawkins, could have far an excessive amount of firepower. An upset right here can be a shocker.
Present line: UNT -18.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 21.7 | FPI projection: UNT by 16.5
Week 13 chaos superfecta
We’re as soon as once more utilizing this area to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly large level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. We whiffed final week, which dropped us to 6-6 for the season. Going by the maths, that is precisely the place we must be, however let’s win out from right here.
This week we’re taking over a playoff theme: Within the 4 video games within the “Protecting playoff hopes alive” part above, SP+ says there’s solely a 44% probability that Miami (93% at Virginia Tech), Utah (86% vs. Kansas State), Vanderbilt (76% vs. Kentucky) and Michigan (72% at Maryland) all win. Let’s remove a contender!
Week 13 playlist
Listed below are some extra video games it’s best to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.
Friday
Florida State at NC State (8 p.m., ESPN). After NC State’s sensible upset of Georgia Tech in Week 10, the Wolfpack went on bye and barely returned, struggling a 41-7 no-show loss to Miami final week. And hey, talking of immaculately irritating groups, FSU is overachieving towards SP+ projections by 12.5 factors per sport at house and underachieving by 18.0 PPG on the highway. Which of those groups exhibits up?
Present line: FSU -4.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 8.5 | FPI projection: FSU by 5.0
Hawai’i at UNLV (10:30 p.m., FS1). With Boise State imploding with out quarterback Maddux Madsen, the Mountain West race has turn into messy — 5 groups are tied for second at 4-2 (behind 5-1 San Diego State). Two of them play late Friday evening, and I will be shocked if it is not one of many extra enjoyable video games of the weekend. UNLV has hit 30 or extra factors in 9 of 10 video games, and Hawai’i has executed so in 5 straight.
Present line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 4.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.1
Early Saturday
Baylor at Arizona (1 p.m., TNT). Arizona misplaced three of 4 in midseason, however the Wildcats have gained three in a row to leap to 7-3. In comparison with 2024, they’ve improved dramatically on each side of the ball — from ninetieth to thirtieth in offensive SP+ and from 84th to thirty ninth on protection — and that ought to give them a bonus towards a Baylor staff that usually solely performs offense. Enjoyable offense, for certain, however solely offense.
Present line: Arizona -6.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 9.1 | FPI projection: Arizona by 4.8
Kansas at Iowa State (midday, FS1). This one’s projected to go right down to the wire, which is terrible information for Kansas — the Jayhawks have misplaced 9 of their previous 11 one-score video games. ISU can present hope in that regard: The Cyclones endured a 1-12 one-score run of their very own some time again however have gained 11 of 16 since. At 5-5 and internet hosting Utah subsequent week, KU most likely wants this one to guarantee bowl eligibility.
Present line: ISU -4.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 4.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.4
Minnesota at Northwestern (midday, BTN). Simply name Minnesota the Florida State of the Huge Ten — the Gophers are overachieving towards projections by 5.4 PPG at house and underachieving by 16.6 PPG on the highway. Northwestern almost stole one final week towards Michigan and returns to Wrigley Area to offer it one other go. If Minnesota exhibits up, this could possibly be lifeless even, however that is evidently quite a bit to ask for.
Present line: NU -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: NU by 1.7 | FPI projection: NU by 3.7
Rutgers at No. 1 Ohio State (midday, Fox). We’re into November and nonetheless taking part in the “Ohio State will win simply, however what would possibly we be taught concerning the Buckeyes?” sport. The OSU passing sport is coming off of a semi-disappointing efficiency — and the standing of banged-up receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate seems unsure — so perhaps we’ll be taught one thing about Julian Sayin‘s resourcefulness?
Present line: OSU -31.5 (down from -33.5) | SP+ projection: OSU by 31.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 28.4
Saturday afternoon
Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC). The return of Horns-Hogs was the most effective issues about Texas becoming a member of the SEC, and after final season’s relative dud, I say we’re owed one thing unusual. Arkansas is sweet sufficient offensively to scare (and finally lose to) nearly anybody, and Horns LB Anthony Hill Jr. is listed as questionable. Let’s have a look at how Texas responds to final week’s damaging loss to Georgia.
Present line: UT -8.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: UT by 9.8 | FPI projection: UT by 11.2
East Carolina at UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). ECU has gained 10 of 14 since changing coach Mike Houston with Blake Harrell halfway via 2024, and at 5-1 in American Convention play, the Pirates are nonetheless within the convention title race. UTSA, in the meantime, is exasperating: The Roadrunners have overachieved towards SP+ projections by not less than 12 factors 3 times and have underachieved by not less than 10 factors 5 occasions.
Present line: ECU -2.5 | SP+ projection: ECU by 5.5 | FPI projection: ECU by 3.2
Duke at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Since beating Clemson to announce itself as an ACC contender, Duke has face-planted, notably on protection, dropping two straight. The 5-5 Blue Devils must beat both UNC or Wake Forest to bowl, and this feels just like the extra possible win. UNC simply misplaced to Wake and won’t have the offensive competence to punish even a flatlining protection reminiscent of Duke’s.
Present line: Duke -6.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 6.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 7.2
TCU at No. 23 Houston (4 p.m., Fox). Houston’s 8-2 report has been propped up by success in shut video games (4-0 in one-score finishes), however the Cougars have a shot at a 10-win season and will take full benefit of the truth that TCU’s offense vanished three video games in the past. Having underachieved towards projections for 5 straight video games, the 6-4 Horned Frogs are stumbling towards the end line.
Present line: Houston -1.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 2.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.7
Jacksonville State at Florida Worldwide (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). FIU has gained two straight to get to 5-5, and a once-moribund offense is blossoming by way of effectivity from RB Kejon Owens and large performs from WR Alex Perry. Jax State has gained 14 of 15 in CUSA play relationship to final season, and RB Cam Cook is second nationally in dashing yards. This one might have some fireworks.
Present line: JSU -1.5 (flipped from FIU -1.5) | SP+ projection: JSU by 3.9 | FPI projection: JSU by 1.1
Missouri State at Kennesaw State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri State has gained 5 straight to maneuver to 7-3 in its FBS debut. The Bears aren’t eligible for the CUSA championship sport, however Kennesaw State is, and any title hopes would require a direct bounce-back after final week’s loss to Jax State. MSU quarterback Jacob Clark attempting to beat Owls corners Caleb Offord and JeRico Washington Jr. must be prime viewing.
Present line: KSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: KSU by 6.9 | FPI projection: KSU by 4.2
Syracuse at No. 9 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame is a projected favourite of not less than 31 factors in every of its final two video games, so the Combating Irish are almost assured of a 10-2 end and one other CFP berth. Statistically, their largest points in the mean time are struggling some damaging run performs and infrequently giving up large cross performs. I do not assume Syracuse can do something with that.
Present line: Irish -35.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 33.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 30.1
Saturday night
No. 20 Tennessee at Florida (7:30 p.m., ABC). Two years in the past, Tennessee misplaced as a 5.5-point favourite in Gainesville. The Volunteers, the truth is, have gained solely twice in Gainesville prior to now 50 years. There aren’t a number of stakes right here, with UT principally eradicated from CFP rivalry and Florida having clinched a dropping report. However a win in The Swamp remains to be a win in The Swamp. It does not occur typically for the Vols.
Present line: UT -4.5 | SP+ projection: UT by 9.4 | FPI projection: UT by 3.7
Nebraska at Penn State (7 p.m., NBC). Because the two-game collapse that value James Franklin his job (and, in flip, earned Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule a hefty contract extension), Penn State has been good, almost beating Iowa and Indiana, hanging with Ohio State for a half and thumping Michigan State. Can the 4-6 Nittany Lions preserve bowl hopes alive with a win over new QB TJ Lateef and Rhule’s Huskers?
Present line: PSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 5.3
No. 21 Illinois at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin’s protection has been good over the previous few weeks, and Illinois’ protection lastly confirmed up a few weeks in the past after a poor stretch. This one ought to conjure some sturdy Huge Ten West spirits, particularly if we get some precipitation to go along with the present 44-degrees-and-cloudy forecast for Saturday night.
Present line: Illini -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Illini by 16.6 | FPI projection: Illini by 6.0
Cal at Stanford (7:30 p.m., ACCN). Since 2001, the favourite on this matchup has gone 21-3. Unacceptable. I say we’re due a bizarre one, and Stanford does appear to be bettering a bit. In his previous two video games, Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has produced a Whole QBR of 20.6 (towards Virginia) and 86.0 (towards Louisville). How will he deal with his first large rivalry sport?
Present line: Cal -2.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 7.1 | FPI projection: Stanford by 0.3
Late Saturday
Washington at UCLA (10:30 p.m., NBC). Saturday’s blowout of Purdue continued a Washington theme: Towards defenses worse than fiftieth in SP+, the Huskies common 50.8 factors and eight.3 yards per play. UCLA’s protection is ranked 82nd, having given away the features it made following Deshaun Foster’s firing. UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is day-to-day due to damage, however nothing issues if the Bruins do not make any stops.
Present line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 17.9 | FPI projection: UW by 9.0
San José State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., FS1). SJSU’s once-prolific offense has vanished of late, scoring 26 complete factors in two video games. Now the Spartans must play towards a protection that has given up greater than 10 factors solely twice in eight video games. SDSU cannot rating both, however the Aztecs are MWC front-runners due to OLB Trey White and a ridiculous attacking entrance.
Present line: SDSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 17.2 | FPI projection: SDSU by 12.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shoutout for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. This is what it’s essential observe because the FCS common season wraps up and the Division II, Division III and NAIA postseasons get underway. As I say yearly round this time, the extra small-school soccer you watch, the more healthy you turn into.
Fusion Bowl: Curry School vs. Service provider Marine (Friday, 5 p.m., NSN). The 40-team D-III playoffs get underway Saturday, however it’s best to spend a part of Friday night watching quarterback Bubba Mustain and a prolific Service provider Marine choice sport dueling with 2,400-yard rusher (!) Montie Quinn and the Curry assault.
SP+ projection: Curry by 3.0
FCS: No. 10 Harvard at No. 25 Yale (midday, ESPNU). It is FCS Rivalry Week, and with the playoffs per week away, The Recreation — the winner of which is able to declare the Ivy League title and a primary computerized FCS playoff berth — is especially large. I have been speaking up Harvard (third in SP+) all season, however Yale is a wholesome thirteenth in SP+, with one of many subdivision’s finest defenses. An enormous sport, even by The Recreation’s requirements.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 7.3
FCS: No. 4 Lehigh at No. 24 Lafayette (12:30 p.m., ESPN+). With each Lehigh and Lafayette unbeaten within the Patriot League, the 161st version of The Rivalry is likely one of the largest. That is the very best Lehigh staff since not less than the Nineteen Seventies. It will be in line with rivalry nonsense if Lafayette have been to drag an upset, however that can require factors, and defensive finish Matt Spatny and the Lehigh protection do not surrender lots of these.
SP+ projection: Lehigh by 16.0
FCS: No. 2 Montana State at No. 3 Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+). My goodness, FCS is bringing it this week. Montana is unbeaten, and MSU hasn’t misplaced since an 0-2 begin. The Bobcats grade out higher on paper, however this sport ought to have one thing for everybody, from stellar quarterback play with Keali’i Ah Yat (Montana) and Justin Lamson (MSU) to deep dashing assaults to ball-hawking secondaries. And in addition there’s all the time a shocking view in Missoula.
SP+ projection: Montana by 0.6
Division II playoffs: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 4 Colorado State-Pueblo (3 p.m., local streaming). The D-II playoffs have expanded to 32 groups, and whereas the highest groups are heavy first-round favorites, the CSU-Pueblo Thunderwolves are close-game addicts. Their previous three video games featured two three-point wins and three additional time durations. UTPB, in the meantime, has gained its previous 4 by a median of 52-14. I will be disillusioned if this one is not wild and shut.
SP+ projection: CSU-Pueblo by 1.3
