The Week 13 schedule for the 2025 NFL season begins with an important slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve you lined for what ought to be an thrilling vacation. Based on ESPN Analysis, the typical over/beneath level whole of 51.2 is the best for Thanksgiving video games over the previous 40 seasons. Buckle up.
Forward of the three matchups, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside every locker room with key storylines and a glance again at every group’s historical past taking part in on Thanksgiving. ESPN Analysis offers optimistic stats for all six groups, together with betting nuggets to know. Plus, analytics author Seth Walder makes daring predictions, whereas fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy soccer intel. We even have Soccer Energy Index (FPI) recreation projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us remaining rating picks for the three video games.
Let’s begin with the Packers and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for an NFL-record twenty third time.
Soar to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Packers: They’re underdogs for the primary time this season. They’re the one group within the NFL that has been favored in every of their video games heading into Week 13. The Packers have already gained extra division video games (two) than they did all of final season, after they had been swept by the Lions and Vikings and break up with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
What we’re listening to on the Lions: Detroit might be seeking to get payback after its season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Discipline. Coach Dan Campbell and his group are trying ahead to a different shot at dealing with their NFC North division rivals on Turkey Day, the place the Lions lead the all-time collection versus Inexperienced Bay 12-9-1. “We took a loss in Week 1, so it is a divisional recreation,” edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson mentioned. “That is as huge as any recreation we’ll play within the common season.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat the Packers are grateful for: Their protection has generated stress 35% of the time this season, which is the sixth-highest price within the league. That might be particularly useful in opposition to Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose QBR has dropped by 69 factors when he has confronted stress this season (most within the NFL).
Stat the Lions are grateful for: Working again Jahmyr Gibbs has been unstoppable since getting into the NFL in 2023, and he has the possibility to affix uncommon firm Thursday. With one landing, Gibbs would turn out to be the fifth participant in NFL historical past to file 45 touchdowns (of any type) inside his first three NFL seasons. The opposite 4 are all Corridor of Famers (Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Gale Sayers and Earl Campbell). — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Hutchinson might be held to 2 or fewer pass-rush wins. He has only a 13% move rush win price at edge this season — his stress tends to return later within the play — and the Packers’ two offensive tackles each rank within the prime 15 in move block win price on the place. — Walder
Fantasy nugget: Packers extensive receiver Christian Watson is in an important spot in opposition to the Lions. He has quietly turn out to be the most secure choice in a Packers offense that ranks close to the underside of the league in move makes an attempt, clearing 45 receiving yards in each recreation since returning from injury and seeing at the very least 4 targets every week. Detroit has additionally allowed the ninth-most fantasy factors per recreation to extensive receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 0-3 outright and in opposition to the unfold when the road is between +3 and -3 this season. The Packers are 1-4 ATS on the highway this season, and their previous 4 highway video games have gone over the entire. Read more. — ESPN Analysis
Maldonado’s choose: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s choose: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s choose: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: DET, 54% (by a mean of 1.5 factors)
Thanksgiving recreation reminiscence for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023. With an apology to historical past — the 1962 recreation in opposition to the Lions is likely to be essentially the most important though it was the Packers’ solely loss in a championship season — recency bias offers the nod to this recreation. The Packers had been 8.5-point underdogs but pulled off a 29-22 win. It was a part of a closing stretch wherein the Packers went 6-2 to make the playoffs after beginning 3-6. — Demovsky
Thanksgiving recreation reminiscence for the Lions: Lions top Bears 23-20 in 2024. After three straight Thanksgiving losses as coach of the Lions, Campbell lastly ended the group’s seven-year vacation drought final season. With the win, the 11-1 Lions additionally acquired off to their finest begin in franchise historical past. For quarterback Goff, it was a “bucket checklist” second, as he loved a turkey leg following 221 passing yards and two landing passes. — Woodyard
Further stuffing: Inside Hutchinson’s contract extension … Do Packers have 1-2 punch? … Gibbs has 264 yards in Lions’ OT victory … Parsons logs 5th straight 10-sack season
1:05
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan explains why Lions coach Dan Campbell wants veteran assist with clock administration.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Chiefs: The Chiefs would possibly’ve saved their season — and their probabilities of reaching the postseason — of their comeback win over the Colts. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is aware of the Chiefs’ efforts Sunday might be wasted if they can not again it up in Dallas. “Now we simply must construct off that momentum,” Mahomes mentioned. “We’re taking part in a great group within the Cowboys. They’ll rating some factors and so they have a variety of nice gamers. It is about rebounding quick. It will be a variety of enjoyable going to Dallas and attending to play on Thanksgiving.” — Nate Taylor
What we’re listening to on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ protection has put up its finest two efforts of the season within the back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they get the problem of Mahomes. Whereas some contemplate the Chiefs’ offense to be struggling, they’re nonetheless within the prime 10 in yards and passing. “Anytime you go in opposition to Patrick Mahomes, you have to have all of your T’s crossed and I’s dotted,” defensive sort out Kenny Clark mentioned. “That boy, he is elite. You may’t let him out of the pocket and improvise, as a result of that is the place he is at his finest.” — Todd Archer
Stat the Chiefs are grateful for: They only broke their streak of not profitable one-score video games this season, defeating the Colts by a area purpose in additional time regardless of trailing by 11 within the fourth quarter. Kansas Metropolis was 0-5 in one-score video games this season after going an NFL-record 12-0 in them in 2024, together with the playoffs. — ESPN Analysis
Stat the Cowboys are grateful for: Their offense has often been at its finest when establishing the run and understanding of play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott has one of the best QBR on play-action snaps this season, and he is tied with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford for essentially the most landing passes (13) on that play sort. This Chiefs’ protection has allowed the worst completion price (82%) and third-most yards per try (9.9) on play-action. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Mahomes will file a 90-plus QBR for the primary time this season. The Chiefs have been one of the best offense within the league versus zone protection (0.27 EPA per play, a lot increased than their 0.10 in opposition to man), and the Cowboys run zone 72% of the time (second most within the NFL). — Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs ought to lean on Mahomes and their move catchers in opposition to a Cowboys protection that has allowed the second-most fantasy factors per recreation to extensive receivers this season. This clearly helps Rashee Rice, however managers in a bind also needs to contemplate Xavier Worthy, who has seen at the very least seven targets in three of his previous 4 video games regardless of averaging simply 7.9 fantasy factors throughout that stretch. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 in opposition to the unfold as underdogs this season, whereas the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS on the highway (0-3 ATS of their previous three). Read more. — ESPN Analysis
Maldonado’s choose: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s choose: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s choose: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI prediction: KC, 63.6% (by a mean of 5.1 factors)
Thanksgiving recreation reminiscence for the Chiefs: Running back Marcus Allen passes Walter Payton in 1996. The Chiefs haven’t got many fond reminiscences on Thanksgiving, however Allen handed fellow Corridor of Famer Walter Payton on the all-time dashing touchdowns checklist in Detroit. Allen recorded his 111th rating on a 1-yard dive into the tip zone within the first quarter. His efficiency, together with 73 dashing yards and two touchdowns, helped the Chiefs rally for a 28-24 comeback victory over the Lions. — Taylor
Thanksgiving recreation reminiscence for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley leads Cowboys to win over Washington in 1974. Longley’s comeback got here out of nowhere. With Roger Staubach knocked out within the third quarter, the Cowboys trailed 23-17 with lower than 30 seconds to play when Longley, generally known as the “Mad Bomber,” hit Drew Pearson for a 50-yard landing to defeat their rivals. — Archer
Further stuffing: Pacheco targeting return vs. Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) likely out vs. Chiefs … Did Cowboys’ win set the table for a playoff run? … Jones captains late defensive charge … How Prescott’s initiative saved a Cowboys exec
1:23
Why Stephen A. would not contemplate Chiefs recreation a must-win for Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the desk for the remainder of their schedule.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)
What we’re listening to on the Bengals: Turnover margin is essential to the group’s success in AFC North play. Relationship again to 2021, the Bengals are 13-14 in division play. Cincinnati has a plus-12 turnover margin in wins in comparison with minus-13 in losses. The identical precept holds true for the Ravens and Steelers, too. However will probably be particularly necessary in stopping Baltimore. “Whoever takes the ball away goes to win,” security Geno Stone mentioned. — Ben Child
What we’re listening to on the Ravens: Working again Derrick Henry wants 18 dashing yards to move Jim Brown for eleventh place on the NFL all-time dashing checklist. He’s going in opposition to a Bengals protection that’s permitting 156 yards dashing per recreation, which is the second worst within the league. “What number of recreation balls are you able to give Derrick?,” coach John Harbaugh mentioned. “Perhaps we’ll wait till he cracks the highest 10, I do not know. However he’ll get extra yards.” In his previous 5 video games in opposition to Cincinnati, Henry averaged 86.4 dashing yards per recreation and scored 4 touchdowns. — Jamison Hensley
Stat the Bengals are grateful for: Working again Chase Brown recorded his fifth straight recreation with over 100 scrimmage yards against the Patriots final week. That is at present the longest lively streak within the NFL and a welcome signal after he did not cross that mark within the first six video games of the season.
Stat the Ravens are grateful for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson is likely to be 1-2 in prime-time video games this season (gained in Week 9 on the Dolphins), however he has a 21-7 file in such video games for his profession. Because the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, the one quarterback with a greater file in prime time is Corridor of Famer Steve Younger (minimal of 15 begins). — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Ravens tight finish Mark Andrews will file at the very least 50 receiving yards for simply the second time this season. Twenty-seven % of targets in opposition to the Bengals’ protection have gone to opposing tight ends, the best price within the league. — Walder
1:09
Saturday: If Burrow is wholesome, he ought to play
Jeff Saturday says the Bengals should not sit a wholesome Joe Burrow even when the playoffs are out of attain.
Fantasy nugget: The Bengals’ protection has been a fantasy goldmine for opponents all season. This can be a dream matchup for managers with Jackson, Henry and Andrews, as Cincinnati permits the second-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks, essentially the most to working backs and essentially the most to tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: 5 straight conferences between these groups have gone over the entire. Overs are 20-8 in Ravens video games since final season, the best price within the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Analysis
Maldonado’s choose: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s choose: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s choose: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 68% (by a mean of seven.2 factors)
Thanksgiving recreation reminiscence for the Bengals: Their only appearance in 2010. The Bengals are one among 4 groups with only one Thanksgiving recreation of their franchise historical past. That recreation on the Jets, a 26-10 loss, was stuffed with eventual Corridor of Famers (Terrell Owens, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darrelle Revis and Jason Taylor). — Child
Thanksgiving recreation reminiscence for the Ravens: The sideline sidestep between Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013. The Ravens play on Thanksgiving for the primary time since they beat the Steelers 22-20 by overcoming one of the crucial controversial performs in league historical past. With the Ravens main 13-7 within the third quarter, Jones was working again a kickoff when he was slowed down by Tomlin, who stood in a restricted space that separates the sideline from the taking part in area, together with his again turned to the motion and his proper foot squarely within the area of play. Jones, who was 38 yards from the tip zone, was tackled from behind. Tomlin was later fined $100,000 by the NFL. “It is simply a kind of unlucky moments of life,” Tomlin said five years ago. “I used to be watching the jumbotron and misplaced observe of the place I used to be. Such is life.” — Hensley
Further stuffing: Jackson misses walk-through with toe injury … Chase sorry for spitting: ‘What I did was wrong’ … Bengals coach anticipates Burrow will play Thursday
