Fantasy baseball: Nine tips to help you win your league

Should you’ve performed this grand recreation of fantasy baseball for any size of time, absolutely you feel calm, knowledgeable and warranted of your skill to win your league’s title. That confidence is a key ingredient in any fantasy baseball toolbox.

However whereas the power is with you, younger Skywalker, a Jedi but you aren’t.

There are a number of extra nuances to this recreation that you’re going to have to know so as to speed up to the extent of perennial championship contender. Everyone knows that is the objective in fantasy baseball — to win championships, proper?

Listed below are 9 methods with which you will have to familiarize your self, angles that may make you a extra aggressive participant. Moreover, whereas skilled fantasy managers would possibly already be accustomed to a number of or all of those, a refresher is rarely a foul concept.

1. Use skill-indicator numbers, not ‘again of the baseball card’ stats

Rotisserie baseball rose to prominence in the course of the peak of the bubble gum card business, and likewise at a time the place tv broadcasts launched gamers with their “AVG-HR-RBI” numbers for hitters and “W-L-ERA” for pitchers.

It was a time when Pete Vukovich might win a Cy Younger Award on the energy of his 18 wins and ace standing for the eventual American League champion Milwaukee Brewers (and never, opposite to widespread Eighties films, as a result of when he sneezed he appeared like a celebration favor). Vukovich would earn the award regardless of having almost 5 fewer WAR (Wins Above Substitute) than Dave Stieb.

No matter the place you stand on the talk of what is related to postseason {hardware} voting, and even which statistics most belong in fantasy baseball, future evaluation — the very basis from which you construct your staff — has little to do with these primary, surface-level numbers, and far more to do with underlying, superior expertise indicators. Use batting common, wins and ERA to specific how a participant did — estimating the price of his previous. Nonetheless, use anticipated batting common, Barrel charge and FIP (Fielding Unbiased Pitching rating) to guage who he’s.

Listed below are a number of examples of the advantages of “trying beneath the hood” or inspecting a participant’s underlying metrics, along with his uncooked fantasy stats:

• Gavin Williams: A top-25 beginning pitcher in fantasy factors throughout a breakthrough 2025, he had the widest differential each between his ERA and Statcast anticipated ERA (4.30 xERA, minus-1.24 differential) and between his ERA and FIP (4.39 FIP, minus-1.33). Williams’ future is perhaps shiny, however with out a tangible enchancment to his uncooked stuff, he’ll be a candidate to regress.

• Dylan Cease: No ERA-qualified pitcher final season had a wider differential between his ERA and anticipated ERA (4.55 vs. 3.46, for a 1.09 hole), and he had the fourth-widest hole between ERA and FIP (4.55-3.56, 1.00). The Toronto Blue Jays absolutely observed earlier than committing $210 million to him over the following seven seasons, figuring the pendulum would swing again within the optimistic course in 2026.

• Brandon Pfaadt: He received 13 video games and had a successful report regardless of posting a 5.25 ERA, one thing no different ERA-qualified pitcher might declare in 2024 or 2025. Pfaadt can be hard-pressed to repeat the success, as he acquired a median 5.55 runs of assist, fourth most within the league, whereas PECOTA initiatives his Arizona Diamondbacks to common 0.4 fewer runs per recreation in 2026.

• Paul Skenes: He posted a 1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 216 strikeouts, but received solely 10 video games final season, becoming a member of Jacob deGrom (2018) as the one pitchers in historical past to win fewer than 16 occasions with not less than pretty much as good numbers in all three classes. (Happily, the Cy Younger voters did not dock Skenes for the poor win whole.) Skenes’ 3.38 common runs of assist had been third fewest amongst qualifiers, however PECOTA forecasts his Pittsburgh Pirates to common 0.70 extra runs per recreation in 2026.

• James Wood: A league-leading 21.2% of his fly balls cleared the fence, the very best charge by a batting title-eligible hitter in a full season since Christian Yelich in 2018 (21.6%). Wooden, who hit almost half his batted balls on the bottom, might want to appropriate that if he is to blossom right into a fantasy celebrity. As is, he cooled considerably over his last 70 video games of 2025, batting simply .210/.291/.369 with a 39.4% strikeout charge.

• Salvador Perez: His .236 batting common was his worst in a single yr since 2018, and the second worst in any season. That mentioned, Statcast estimated that Perez “ought to have hit” .269 primarily based upon his contact high quality, marking the third consecutive season that he has managed not less than a .260 xBA. His 33-point hole, the widest in that course amongst eligible hitters, ought to slim considerably in 2026.

2. Purchase low and promote excessive on the commerce market

As with the inventory market, the perceived values of baseball gamers on the fantasy commerce market can range primarily based upon quite a few components, resembling their current efficiency, well being, function and supporting solid — and the notion does not at all times match the participant’s true price.

Figuring out these gamers, whether or not under-appreciated or overrated, is usually a vital ingredient to a fantasy staff’s success. It is not merely about making the correct commerce. It will also be about making the correct commerce on the proper time.

To “purchase low” means to commerce for a participant at a low — and ideally the lowest — level on his valuation curve, whereas to “promote excessive” means to commerce away a participant at his highest level, when curiosity in buying and selling for him has reached its apex. Success with this buying and selling technique doesn’t require the 2 to be finished in tandem, and actually, insisting it to be so is likely one of the commonest missteps fantasy managers make.

Shopping for low and promoting excessive is most relevant at across the 25% mark of the season, or inside vary of the primary two weeks of Could, when seasonal statistics nonetheless symbolize a precariously small pattern measurement and fantasy managers are most definitely to be annoyed with their groups’ sluggish begins and in search of a change. That mentioned, it is a technique that may be utilized any time of yr, particularly in case you’re adept at checking a participant’s current recreation logs or splits.

To execute the technique, search gamers who’ve both vastly exceeded or underperformed expectations, and think about underlying metrics resembling those mentioned in tip No. 1. Be ready to take probabilities, since trying to purchase low requires taking a leap of religion that the participant will finally enhance.

• Cristopher Sanchez would have served an impressive instance of a pitcher to purchase low by way of commerce within the early phases of final season. A buzzworthy spring coaching performer because of his elevated sinker velocity, the left-hander had a forearm harm scare after being faraway from an April 22 begin and, by means of the season’s first month, he had a mere 3.45 ERA. Fantasy managers who acknowledged his swift restoration from the ailment at that time, and recalled his electrical stuff from throughout Grapefruit League play, might need traded for him in time to reap the rewards of his 2.18 ERA and beginning pitcher-leading 360 fantasy factors throughout his last 20 begins.

• Conversely, by means of the primary 40 video games of his season, Jacob Wilson seemed to be on the quick observe to an AL Rookie of the Yr award, batting .362 with 5 dwelling runs. A fast look beneath the hood, nevertheless, would have revealed him to be one in every of solely six gamers with top-30 numbers when it comes to BABIP (batting common on balls in play) and HR/FB proportion, indicators of a hitter’s good fortunes on batted balls. Wilson, who would have been an excellent sell-high candidate on the time, hit .285/.339/.411 over his last 85 video games — a useful stat line, however one far more consultant of his ability set as an “empty batting common” sort.

3. Stream beginning pitchers

“Streaming” a participant means to roster him for under someday (or one week, in case your league locks lineups weekly), solely to launch him the next day (or scoring interval) for the same, matchups-oriented substitute. It is a significantly widespread technique in fantasy baseball codecs resembling ESPN’s normal, the place each day transactions afford managers the posh of filling in lineup gaps attributable to days off, a pitchers off-turn within the rotation or day-to-day accidents.

The objective is to dominate counting quantity classes — HR, RBI, runs scored, wins, saves and strikeouts, mostly — in a rotisserie league, or to maximise a staff’s point-scoring potential by consistently having an lively participant in any respect lineup spots. Barring your league limiting the variety of pitcher begins or hitter video games performed in a given week or season — at all times verify your league’s guidelines to know the extent to which you’ll stream gamers — your success will rely on how attentive you’re to having high-quality, wholesome gamers with good matchups consistently lively.

Nowhere does a streaming technique profit a fantasy supervisor greater than on the pitching aspect. Pitching statistics are usually extra unstable than hitting statistics, and beginning pitchers work considerably much less usually than hitters. Since beginning pitchers usually work solely as soon as (or probably twice, if slotted on Monday/Tuesday and Saturday/Sunday) per week, streaming beginning pitchers can assist you squeeze extra begins out of your lineup, maximizing your probabilities at getting fantasy factors (or wins or strikeouts if in a roto league). In case your league caps your begins for the week (or season), streaming reduction pitchers will be one other method to maximize your pitching workers’s each day output.

In weekly leagues, significantly people who use factors, streaming two-start pitchers — those that work originally and finish of the week — is usually a equally advantageous technique.

To determine the perfect streaming candidates, exploit matchups towards the weakest-hitting offenses, in addition to pitching assignments in pitching-friendly ballparks.

Utilizing PECOTA projections, listed below are the ten groups projected to attain the fewest runs in 2026:

Utilizing Statcast’s Park Elements Leaderboard and its three-year outlook (I at all times suggest a minimal of three years of ballpark information), listed below are the ten most pitcher-friendly venues (utilizing single-year information for these solely in use in 2025, and the latest three years within the venue in any other case):

4. Quantity is king, particularly in factors leagues

Tied to the earlier advice to stream, quantity is king in fantasy baseball. You need as many alternatives to build up statistics out of your gamers as doable.

Moreover manipulating your lineup each day (or weekly), there are a number of different methods to do that. The primary is to draft or purchase hitters from the most efficient offenses. Merely put, the extra runs a staff scores, the extra runs and RBI it’s going to unfold up and down the lineup, and the extra occasions it’s going to flip the lineup over and provides your hitters one other alternative to bat. Of the 12 hitters who scored not less than 100 runs final season, 9 performed for groups that ranked among the many high 10 in runs per recreation, whereas 11 of the 16 hitters who drove in not less than 100 runs performed for top-10 scoring offenses.

One other means is to draft or purchase hitters who bat greater within the lineup. This tends to be an neglected aspect of fantasy baseball evaluation. As to the earlier level about turning the lineup over, the upper a hitter bats within the lineup, the extra at-bats he is prone to get in any given recreation. A single at-bat may not look like a lot, however over the course of the season, these collective at-bats can quantity to a noticeable quantity benefit.

Discover that the distinction in plate appearances between every of the 9 lineup spots is roughly 18 for every successive slot we transfer down. The distinction between the No. 2 and seven slots, in the meantime, is 86. Additionally think about the staff energy context, because the distinction between the perfect staff’s No. 2 and worst staff’s No. 7 slots was 128 PAs. For this reason Brendan Donovan‘s commerce to the Mariners was such a boon to his fantasy worth, as he went from main off for one of many weakest offenses within the recreation to top-of-the-line. He might achieve as many as 30 PAs within the course of.

The ultimate means is to depend on hitters who’ve the most important variety of video games (if in a league with weekly transactions) or probably the most favorable matchups in a given scoring interval, whether or not each day or weekly. Fantasy managers are usually fast to begin hitters scheduled to play video games at Colorado’s Coors Discipline, MLB’s most hitter-friendly ballpark, and so they’re at all times looking out for seven- or eight-game weekly schedules.

As with the pitchers above, here is the record of the ten groups PECOTA initiatives to permit probably the most runs in 2026, for exploiting hitters’ matchups:

Once more utilizing Statcast’s Park Elements Leaderboard, listed below are the ten most hitter-friendly venues:

• 1. Coors Discipline (Rockies)

• 2. Sutter Well being Park (Athletics)

• 3. Fenway Park (Boston Red Sox)

• 4. Nice American Ball Park (Reds)

• 5. Chase Discipline (Diamondbacks)

• 6. Goal Discipline (Twins)

• 7. Angel Stadium (Angels)

• 8. Nationals Park (Nationals)

• 9. Truist Park (Atlanta Braves)

• 10. Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City Royals)

5. Ignore the statistics, however do not sleep by means of spring coaching

Baseball followers love statistics and infrequently crave them. To have a brand new set of statistics accessible, earlier than the top of February, tantalizes us, persuades us to place a stage of religion into them that is not remotely deserved.

Right here is the cruel fact about spring straining statistics: They’re virtually nugatory — numbers drawn off a minuscule, roughly-30-day pattern measurement. And, not like stats from the common season, a superb chunk of them are accrued towards profession backups, washed-up veterans and gamers ticketed to spend the vast majority of 2026 (if not their complete careers) in Class-A ball.

Moreover, Cactus League video games in Arizona are performed at 1,000-plus-foot elevations, usually in humidity, amping up hitting numbers, whereas Grapefruit League video games in Florida are performed at sea stage, usually in bigger ballparks that favor pitchers. Veteran gamers who’re assured Opening Day roster spots, as nicely, hardly ever play full video games. They have a tendency to not see the quantity of at-bats or innings you’d count on from them in, say, June.

Nowhere is the absurdity of spring statistics extra obvious than within the saves class. Groups nearly by no means use their true closers within the function, being that groups hardly ever have their common hitters within the lineup within the recreation by the eighth inning, that means pitchers like Mason Miller, Edwin Diaz and Cade Smith will most likely get their reps within the fourth, fifth or sixth innings in March. To that time, 60 relievers managed a multi-save spring in not less than one of many final three years, however that group totaled solely 57 saves throughout these respective common seasons (26 of them by Carlos Estevez alone in 2024).

That is to not say that you need to “zone out” completely throughout spring coaching — not by a protracted shot. There are related, statistical tales to be informed in March, and fantasy managers merely want to search out them. All the time think about the context behind the numbers, which is the place Baseball Reference’s “energy of competitors” quantity is usually a helpful useful resource. The upper the quantity, the extra related the output.

• Much less confirmed and/or youthful gamers usually have managers to influence or roles to say throughout spring coaching. Gavin Sheets‘ .315/.373/.704 hitting line and 6 homers throughout 59 plate appearances final spring earned him, largely, the robust aspect of the Padres’ DH platoon, making him a viable dart throw in NL-only and deeper combined leagues and a season-long cut price accordingly.

• One other issue to think about is whether or not a participant’s strikeout or stroll charges has noticeably shifted from earlier seasons. Clay Holmes‘ addition of a kick-change to his repertoire final yr fueled a five-start spring coaching throughout which he posted a 0.93 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout charge, giving confidence that he could possibly be a profitable rotation choice for fantasy functions. Although he did decelerate over the course of the yr — one thing widespread for a reliever being stretched out right into a beginning function — he posted a 2.97 ERA throughout his first 16 begins and in the end completed forty ninth amongst beginning pitchers in fantasy factors for the yr.

6. Cut price store for saves, however tread fastidiously within the market

I hesitate to make use of the phrase do not in terms of investing in saves, being that ironclad methods result in inflexibility on the draft desk, a serious hindrance to a profitable fantasy baseball recreation plan. “Do not pay for saves” is a generally cited technique for filling the class and, whereas it has a great deal of benefit, it can also result in some harmful pitfalls.

In protection of the technique, 44% of MLB’s whole saves final season got here from pitchers who had been unquestionably not drafted in ESPN leagues (particularly chosen exterior the highest 300 on common, in addition to picked in fewer than 5% of all drafts). This group included Emilio Pagan, who completed tied for fifth within the majors in saves (32) and sixth in fantasy factors amongst reduction pitchers, and fellow top-20 fantasy relievers Will Vest and Dennis Santana. Daniel Palencia additionally saved 22 video games regardless of being completely undrafted.

This represented a stark improve within the proportion of saves that had been accrued by the broadly accessible portion of the draft pool, underscoring the significance of flexibility along with your draft-day technique. In 2024, a considerably better proportion went to the draftable pool — solely 31% went to those that went undrafted — illustrating the annual volatility of the saves market. Some years, closers (on the entire) are extra apt to take care of their roles. Different years, change is the secret.

The truth that, usually, a minimal of one-third of the league’s saves are proper on the market for the taking diminishes the necessity to sink a hearty chunk of your draft-day sources into closers. On the identical time, widespread reliance by a league “going a budget route” to fill the saves class can result in positional bargains. It might probably additionally result in huge mark-ups for nearer candidates on the FAB (free agent funds) and/or waiver entrance in-season. There may not be a better method to waste your acquisition sources than by consistently throwing them at pitchers with even a distant probability at sniffing saves.

The depth of your league additionally weighs on this resolution, as AL- and NL-only leagues deplete the participant pool considerably greater than even 15-team combined leagues do. The extra possible that your league will roster pitchers with a distant probability at saving video games upfront, the better the significance to deal with the class on the draft desk.

7. Beware the rookie hype

Everybody desires to be the fantasy supervisor who first discovers the following large factor. Particularly in recent times, rookies have made waves on the fantasy baseball entrance, from Corbin Carroll‘s first-ever 25/50 (25 dwelling runs and 50 stolen bases) season by a rookie in 2023, to Skenes’ 1.96 ERA in 2024 that was lowest by any rookie with not less than 20 begins in the course of the dwell ball period, to Nick Kurtz changing into solely the sixth rookie in historical past with not less than 30 homers and 1.000 OPS final yr.

These performances, in addition to lesser but nonetheless hearty rookie contributions from Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz (2023), Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio (2024) and Drake Baldwin and Roman Anthony (2025), illustrate the potential current inside every year’s rookie class. There isn’t any doubt that rookies and youthful gamers have better odds of success than at every other time up to now this century.

That mentioned, perceive the inherent randomness concerned with evaluating every year’s rookie class. Getting into 2024, Jackson Holliday and Yoshinobu Yamamoto had been prohibitive favorites for his or her leagues’ respective Rookie of the Yr Awards, and Holliday was Kiley McDaniel’s top-ranked prospect. Getting into final season, Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez had been among the many — and, at occasions, the — favorites to win the {hardware}, whereas Roki Sasaki topped McDaniel’s annual prospect record. Each one in every of these gamers completed considerably shy of his preseason expectations.

Tuck that away as you estimate the price of the 2026 freshman class, which is headlined by Kevin McGonigle, 2025 postseason standout Trey Yesavage, JJ Wetherholt and McDaniel’s No. 1 general prospect, Konnor Griffin. Any and all might put forth award-caliber statistics and be each bit price their draft-day value tags, however the problem each participant faces adapting to the sport’s highest stage of competitors makes every a riskier decide than equally ranked, extra skilled gamers.

8. Resist recency bias

Fantasy managers on the entire, in all sports activities, are likely to chase yesterday’s statistics. When a hitter clocks three dwelling runs on a given evening, or a pitcher throws a no-hitter, he usually turns into the most popular commodity in our recreation the next morning.

Much more skilled fantasy managers, who aren’t usually fooled by such one-night outbursts, will be fooled by lengthier, albeit still-small pattern sizes of cold and hot spells. Familiarize your self with that phrase, “small pattern measurement,” which refers to information factors that reside inside a spread of statistical variance — this might imply a day’s outcomes, or every week’s, and even as many as 40 days. There’s a cause baseball is performed over a 162-game schedule, and it is that the lengthier highway does a superb job of smoothing out the statistical noise, separating the actually nice from the not-so-much.

Lenyn Sosa‘s 2025, which positioned him fifteenth amongst second baseman on the Player Rater (and twentieth in fantasy factors), was vastly influenced by an eight-week stretch between June and August throughout which he hit 13 of his 22 dwelling runs and drove in 37 of his 75 runs for the season. Due largely to his free-swinging nature, nevertheless, he hit solely .236/.263/.386 with 5 dwelling runs over his last 32 video games, demonstrating the extent of regression to which a participant together with his ability set is topic.

That is very true in the course of the season’s early weeks, the place scorching begins could cause us to make silly choices on gamers’ full-year prospects. Cedric Mullins, usually a final-round decide candidate in normal ESPN drafts (No. 220 ADP, drafted in 42% of leagues) who averaged .244/.311/.407 charges, 16 homers and 28 steals the prior three years (2022-24), bought off to a scorching, .295/.433/.590 begin with six homers and 5 steals over his first 23 video games, giving the look of a serious bounce-back candidate. Because of his mediocre contact-quality metrics (and in the end his commerce away from helpful Camden Yards), Mullins hit solely .199/.266/.347 with 11 homers and 17 steals in 110 video games thereafter, even dropping his beginning job.

This recency bias also can adhere to complete seasons, in sure circumstances, such because the participant who had the out-of-nowhere large yr, or the previous celebrity coming off an unexpectedly depressing marketing campaign. Earlier than assuming that the most-recent season defines the participant’s future expectation, hunt down the why he carried out in the way in which he did. May his prior, lengthier observe report be the wiser measure of his ability?

Among the many higher examples of this single-year bias:

• Yordan Alvarez: Accidents ruined his 2025 marketing campaign, limiting him to solely 48 video games and leading to a career-worst .797 OPS. Sure, Alvarez’s harm historical past warrants concern, as he averaged 132 video games the prior three years, however that is nonetheless a considerably bigger quantity than final season’s, and his contact high quality metrics had been as wonderful as at all times. Alvarez ought to be due for a rebound.

• Geraldo Perdomo: He managed an impressive, top-15-overall caliber 2025, however his stage of energy output was nearly completely out of character together with his prior historical past. Perdomo stays a lots draft-worthy participant, however he is among the many high candidates to regress within the dwelling run division.

• Adley Rutschman: Sure, he faces a problem to his enjoying time from high prospect Samuel Basallo, and his 2025 was as disappointing as they arrive. That mentioned, the whole lot that made Rutschman’s points-league fantasy recreation doubtlessly nice previously remains to be current in his ability set. Plus. he is nonetheless a prime-age 28.

9. Have persistence by means of streaks, the place warranted

Pardon the cliché, however fantasy baseball is a 180-plus-day (this yr, it is 185) marathon, not a dash. As talked about with the recency bias level above, statistics are likely to even out over the course of the complete season, making persistence a real advantage in our recreation.

Study to acknowledge the distinction between cold and hot streaks and a definitive change in a participant’s ability set, method or function. Sure subsets of gamers are extra topic to excessive streaks than others, and making rash strikes with them on the improper occasions can price you on the fantasy baseball commerce market.

For instance, sluggers who hit numerous dwelling runs on the expense of many strikeouts — usually known as “three true outcomes” gamers due to the excessive chance that the outcomes of their plate appearances can be both a house run, strikeout or stroll — are usually the streakiest such gamers.

• Kyle Schwarber is a infamous such instance, his 48.9% profession charge of his PAs ending in a house run, strikeout or stroll second-highest amongst lively gamers (Aaron Judge‘s 51.1% leads). Schwarber is famend for having epic Junes, his .248 batting common, .557 slugging proportion, .911 OPS and 11.1 at-bats per dwelling run common in that month his greatest in any of the season’s six months. In the meantime, his .437 slugging proportion, .769 OPS and 16.3 at-bat per dwelling run common in April are his worst in any single month. If he will get off to a sluggish begin but once more in 2026, acknowledge that his previous historical past calls for persistence by means of it.

Schwarber, or different such sluggers as De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez or Matt Olson, additionally are usually poor suits to the aforementioned buy-low, sell-high commerce technique. Their observe data are prolonged sufficient that their fantasy managers are nicely conscious of their penchant for streakiness, making it tough to “purchase in” at low factors on their efficiency curves, and it is particularly harmful to commerce for any of them at their excessive factors, realizing {that a} dip could possibly be coming in some unspecified time in the future. These are gamers a lot better to lock into your staff for the lengthy haul, permitting their ability units to even out over time.