Biggest questions facing the men’s committee heading into Selection Sunday

We lastly made it. We’re lower than 24 hours away from among the best hours on the sports activities calendar: discovering out the 68 groups taking part in within the males’s 2026 NCAA match.

Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’re the 1-seeds? All will probably be answered earlier than Choice Sunday ends. After which, in fact, comes the enjoyable half: filling out brackets.

However first, let’s get contained in the minds of the 12 members on the NCAA choice committee, chaired by Keith Gill. Whereas many of the area is already chosen and bracketed, there are nonetheless 12 burning questions that will probably be mentioned advert nauseam within the committee room in Indianapolis. Let’s run by way of every.

1. Are the 4 1-seeds set in stone?

For just a few hours on Saturday, there was a authentic debate. Florida was comfortably headed towards the ultimate 1-seed coming into Champ Week. The Gators received 11 straight video games to finish the common season, whereas UConn misplaced at a sub-.500 Marquette within the regular-season finale and Houston misplaced three in a row late in February. Then Todd Golden’s workforce was throttled by Vanderbilt within the SEC semifinals, trailing by as many as 25 earlier than falling by 17.

The door was open for UConn or Houston to make a case by profitable a convention match championship, however each the Huskies and Cougars misplaced to 1-seeds of their respective title video games. Consequently, all logic factors to Florida becoming a member of Duke, Michigan and Arizona on the highest line.

2. Is Duke the clear No. 1 general seed?

With Duke holding off Virginia within the ACC title recreation, the Blue Devils are on observe for the highest general seed regardless of latest accidents to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II. Duke is No. 1 within the NET, within the BPI, at KenPom and BartTorvik. And the workforce ranked No. 1 within the different three metrics is Michigan, which Duke beat on a impartial court docket in Washington, D.C., just some weeks in the past.

The Blue Devils have 10 Quad 1A wins (tied for many within the nation), 17 Quad 1 wins (most within the nation) and 23 Quad 1 and a pair of wins (tied for probably the most within the nation). Their solely two losses got here within the last seconds towards Texas Tech and North Carolina.

A loss to Virginia might have made it a debate, and the Cavaliers made it attention-grabbing, but it surely’s laborious to think about anybody leaping Duke.

3. Does Miami (Ohio) get in? Is it sure for the First 4?

Miami’s good file got here to an finish within the quarterfinals of the Mid-American Convention match, falling to UMass for its first loss in 32 video games. The RedHawks completed the common season at 31-0, and the consensus appears to be that the committee will not pass over a workforce that went unbeaten within the common season. And to be truthful, their résumé metrics are spectacular, with a top-40 Wins Above Bubble mark and a top-30 Energy of Report. But, there’s motive to consider they might find yourself in Dayton.

Travis Steele’s workforce doesn’t have a typical at-large résumé. The RedHawks’ power of schedule is No. 340; their nonconference power of schedule is No. 363; they’ve extra Quad 3 losses (one) than Quad 1 wins (zero); and their finest wins are over Wright State and Akron. Their predictive metrics are additionally by far the bottom of any at-large contender, plus their KenPom rating could be the bottom or second lowest in at-large historical past. The committee sending them to Dayton to duke it out with a middling power-conference workforce is a possible compromise.

4. Does Auburn have an opportunity at a record-breaking at-large bid?

The brief reply would look like no. The committee has by no means chosen an at-large workforce with 16 losses, nor has it ever chosen an at-large workforce that is only one recreation above .500. Auburn checks each packing containers.

Sure, the Tigers’ metrics are superb. They’ve the second-best power of schedule within the nation. The common of their résumé metrics hovers in entrance of many of the last at-large groups, whereas the typical of their predictive metrics is within the mid-30s. They beat St. John’s and Florida away from house. However they’re additionally 4-13 in Quad 1 video games, 7-15 in Quad 1 and a pair of video games and have a Quad 3 loss. Yet another win may need performed it for Steven Pearl’s workforce, but it surely looks like a stretch for the committee.

5. Does VCU have to win on Sunday?

With the bubble carnage earlier within the week and VCU advancing to Sunday’s Atlantic 10 championship towards Dayton (1 p.m. ET), the Rams would look like in a great place coming into Choice Sunday. However will the committee give the A-10 three bids if VCU does lose within the title recreation? The Rams’ résumé metrics are extra stable than their predictive metrics, they usually have zero losses exterior of Quads 1 and a pair of. Their subject is a scarcity of fine wins. They performed a great nonconference schedule however misplaced to match groups Vanderbilt, NC State and Utah State, then had been swept by Saint Louis in the course of the A-10 marketing campaign. Their finest wins are over South Florida and Virginia Tech.

6. Who’re bubble groups rooting towards on Sunday?

There’s just one potential bid-stealer left on the docket, with Ole Miss’ run within the SEC match ending on Saturday towards Arkansas. That workforce is Dayton, which shocked Saint Louis within the last seconds of the Atlantic 10 semifinals and now sits one win away from the NCAA match. The Flyers will face VCU, which could have punched its ticket with its blowout win over Saint Joseph’s within the A-10 semis. However the query stays whether or not the committee will award the A-10 three bids if Dayton knocks off VCU.

7. Did San Diego State have to win for the Mountain West to get multiple bid?

Friday night time’s Mountain West semifinal between San Diego State and New Mexico was basically a bubble elimination recreation — but it surely did not essentially imply the winner was getting a bid. San Diego State superior, then fell brief towards Utah State within the title recreation. Are the Aztecs going to get a bid?

They’re 9-10 towards Quadrants 1 and a pair of, with a Quadrant 3 loss. They’ve just one win towards the projected match area, and that got here at house towards Utah State. Their metrics aren’t nice, both. It would not look like their résumé can beat that of Texas or SMU, however the query stays: Will the Mountain West actually be a one-bid convention for the primary time since 2017?

8. Will any accidents impression seeding or inclusion?

Sadly for the game, many of the extra noteworthy accidents from the previous few weeks have definitive timetables, with Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, BYU’s Richie Saunders and Michigan’s L.J. Cason all struggling season-ending accidents. All three groups have responded nicely with out their key contributors, which means none is more likely to undergo a precipitous drop on Choice Sunday.

That mentioned, there are just a few extra open-ending accidents that make issues troublesome for the committee.

SMU’s B.J. Edwards missed the final 5 video games of the season with an ankle damage, however the Mustangs say he’ll return for the NCAA match. May that impression their at-large hopes? Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. missed the ultimate 4 video games with a again damage after lacking eight video games earlier this season. He is additionally hopeful to be again for the NCAA match. UCLA’s Tyler Bilodeau suffered a proper leg damage in UCLA’s quarterfinal win over Michigan State and teammate Donovan Dent suffered a calf damage within the semifinal loss to Purdue, however each seem set to return for the Massive Dance.

Gonzaga’s Braden Huff has been out since January, and his timeline could be very a lot up within the air. Then there are the accidents to Foster and Ngongba. Foster seems unlikely to return quickly, however there’s extra optimism for Ngongba.

Yet another potential damage emerged on Saturday night time, with UConn’s Silas Demary Jr. going to the locker room late within the Massive East title recreation loss to St. John’s.

9. How excessive can Vanderbilt or Arkansas rise with an SEC match title?

At the beginning of the SEC match, ESPN’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi had Arkansas as the primary 5-seed and Vanderbilt because the second. After Saturday’s semifinals wins, Lunardi now has Vandy because the second 4-seed and Arkansas as the primary 5-seed. May both soar to a 3-seed with an SEC match championship on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)? They’d seemingly must surpass Nebraska for that spot. Vanderbilt has another Quad 1 win than Nebraska, and two extra Quad 1 and a pair of wins, with barely superior metrics. Arkansas has two fewer Quad 1 wins and the identical variety of Quad 1 and a pair of wins, however the Razorbacks haven’t got the metrics edge.

There’s additionally the query of whether or not the committee will even need to shuffle the bracket — or put together a contingency — for a Sunday afternoon recreation between two groups that would already be among the many top-four seeds.

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10. The place will St. John’s land after sweeping the Massive East titles?

The choice committee has typically rewarded power-conference groups that win each the regular-season and convention match championships, which St. John’s simply did for the second season in a row. However will the committee worth the Massive East in such a manner that strikes the Crimson Storm considerably up the bracket? The league is clearly the worst of the 5 energy conferences this season, poised to land simply three bids within the NCAA match.

Regardless of the regular-season title, St. John’s opened Champ Week because the third 5-seed in ESPN’s Bracketology on account of a scarcity of nonconference heft on its résumé. The Crimson Storm went 7-4 in nonconference play, with their finest win coming towards Baylor. Their solely wins towards the sector are towards UConn (twice) and Villanova (twice). Consequently, a 4-seed is probably going their ceiling.

11. Which information factors does the committee worth probably the most this yr?

The committee added two extra metrics previous to final yr, placing Bart Torvik’s rankings and Wins Above Bubble onto the workforce sheet. WAB has risen in significance since its arrival, with NCAA vp of basketball Dan Gavitt saying at February’s mock Selection Sunday exercise that the committee tends to lean towards résumé metrics in choosing the sector, particularly highlighting the rising significance of WAB. It helped North Carolina final March, because the Tar Heels acquired an at-large bid regardless of going 1-12 in Quad 1 video games, however had a WAB rating of No. 43. This March, a WAB focus might assist Miami (Ohio) in comparison with one other bubble workforce like, say, Texas.

Will one other information level be the difference-maker this yr?

12. Will Houston play in Houston?

This appears nailed-on to occur. The South regional takes place in Houston, however Rice changed Houston in September because the host establishment — which means Houston is allowed to play in Houston for the Candy 16 and Elite Eight if the Cougars advance. And that may nonetheless be the case even when Houston is not the 1-seed within the area. Florida is probably going the 1-seed within the South however might must face the Cougars in what quantities to a house recreation.