Early Men’s Final Four preview: Arizona-Michigan, UConn-Illinois predictions

The 2026 males’s Ultimate 4 is about!

UConn will open Saturday’s nationwide semifinals towards Illinois after mounting a profitable comeback towards Duke within the Elite Eight, adopted by a battle of No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan in Indianapolis. Who do ESPN’s school basketball consultants see advancing to the championship sport on April 6?

Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down how every group reached the ultimate weekend of the NCAA event — and their keys to advancing to the title sport. Discover their predictions beneath.

FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

8:49 p.m. ET, Saturday

What to find out about Arizona

No. 1 issue that helped Arizona attain the Ultimate 4: The Wildcats’ relentlessness within the paint has been unparalleled, and it carried them when it mattered within the NCAA event.

For the season, Arizona ranked fifth within the nation in paint factors, averaging greater than 42. It additionally led the nation in free throw makes an attempt with practically 20 factors per sport on the line. In opposition to one other dominant paint group in Arkansas within the Candy 16, Arizona had maybe probably the most environment friendly inside efficiency ever seen in March: The Wildcats had 60 paint factors and 30 factors from the free throw line, probably the most mixed factors in an NCAA event sport prior to now 20 years. Then, after Purdue matched them down low within the first half of their Elite Eight showdown, the Wildcats performed with an elevated urgency and imposed their will within the second half. The Wildcats completed with 40 paint factors and 20 factors from the free throw line, outscoring the Boilermakers by a mixed 28 factors in these areas.

It is not simply the publish scoring from Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas or the offensive rebounding from Tobe Awaka; it is also the relentless attacking from Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Coach Tommy Lloyd preaches paint factors, and it is mirrored in each a part of his group’s offense. — Borzello

play

Brayden Burries’ hustle play punctuates Arizona’s Elite Eight win

Brayden Burries dives on the ground and will get the ball to Ivan Kharchenkov for a layup to assist ship the Wildcats to the Ultimate 4.

Arizona’s keys towards Michigan: This would be the final power on power battle within the paint, however Arizona is extra reliant — and higher — at dominating the glass and ending on the rim. That is the important thing right here. The Wildcats are within the high 5 nationally in paint factors per sport and offensive rebound proportion, they usually lead the nation in free throw makes an attempt per sport. Michigan, in the meantime, is within the high 5 in 2-point protection, block price and common 2-point try distance defensively. The Wolverines additionally restrict their fouling. Can Arizona proceed to regulate the paint towards a group that may match it from a dimension and physicality perspective?

It is the identical state of affairs on the different finish of the court docket. Michigan shoots higher than 61% contained in the arc and ranks within the high 20 in paint factors and second-chance factors per sport. Arizona must win the inside battle on each ends. — Borzello

What to find out about Michigan

No. 1 issue that helped Michigan attain the Ultimate 4: The Wolverines can shortly shift gears and attain a stage few groups are capable of match. Their Elite Eight win over Tennessee was arguably probably the most full sport we have seen by any group within the NCAA event. Michigan outscored the Volunteers 48-26 within the first half and held them to simply 85 factors per 100 possessions. With 10:52 to play within the first half, Tennessee had a 16-15 lead over Michigan; the Wolverines then launched a 33-10 rally to finish the half. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes had his head in his fingers. What can anybody do when Michigan performs that means?

The Wolverines are massive, have stars and play nice protection — and when it is time to stand their floor and battle, no group is best. That is why Michigan goes to Indianapolis. — Medcalf

play

Yaxel Lendeborg will get candy and-1 to fall for Michigan

Yaxel Lendeborg drives and will get a clean reverse and-1 layup to fall for Michigan vs. Tennessee.

Michigan’s keys towards Arizona: The Wolverines must power the Wildcats to take pictures outdoors the paint and neutralize all paths to the rim. Arizona is a extremely tough group to compete towards when it may well get downhill, penetrate and assault groups within the lane. The Wildcats are within the high 10 nationally in drawing fouls and attending to the free throw line: That has been their bread and butter, they usually’re higher at that tactic than any group in Indianapolis.

On offense, Michigan has to increase Arizona’s protection by capturing nicely from the 3-point line. The Wildcats’ 4 NCAA event opponents struggled from past the arc, however the Wolverines have made 40% of their 3s since March 1. If Arizona is compelled to concentrate on what Michigan is doing on the perimeter, it would create extra room for Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. to function within the lane.

Nonetheless, towards this sturdy of an Arizona group, Michigan would possibly want Lendeborg to be the standout with a high-level efficiency corresponding to the 27-point effort he produced towards Tennessee within the Elite Eight. — Medcalf

Arizona vs. Michigan Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 82-80
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 78-76

6:09 p.m. ET, Saturday

What to find out about UConn

No. 1 issue that helped UConn attain the Ultimate 4: Tarris Reed Jr. and the expertise to keep up the kind of persistence the Huskies wanted to cope with a Duke group that had a 19-point lead within the first half has pushed them right here. Three gamers within the beginning rotation have been in coach Dan Hurley’s system for not less than two years, a rarity within the present panorama. Illinois would be the solely group in Indianapolis that may match that.

Hurley is as nice at recruiting as he’s at retention. Freshman Braylon Mullins has had an up-and-down season, seemingly by no means hitting his stride constantly, however he was a five-star recruit for a cause. When Hurley turned to Mullins, he hit the largest 3-pointer of his life with 0.4 seconds left to ship UConn again to the Ultimate 4.

The Huskies additionally held Duke to a clip of 100 factors per 100 possessions within the second half after the Blue Devils had scored at 147 factors per 100 possessions within the first half. UConn stored preventing and received. — Medcalf

UConn’s keys towards Illinois: Illinois has been the most effective offensive group within the nation, however it additionally performed elite protection towards Houston within the Candy 16 and Iowa within the Elite Eight. UConn must remedy that. The Huskies have dimension permitting them to play a restrictive zone that has stifled opponents. Houston and Iowa each made beneath 40% of their pictures contained in the arc towards Illinois, so UConn’s sport plan has to start with Reed, who has scored not less than 20 factors in three of his previous 4 video games. The Huskies’ massive man was dominant towards Duke, and he must be nice towards Illinois within the publish so the Combating Illini cannot get comfy in that zone. The Huskies additionally must exploit the pockets in Illinois’ protection; Reed’s manufacturing would be the key to attaining that.

On protection, all of it begins with guarding Keaton Wagler. The Huskies have a number of guards they’ll throw on the 6-foot-5 projected NBA draft lottery choose. They can not enable him to place up massive numbers.

Defending the rim towards one of many greatest groups in Indianapolis additionally will matter. — Medcalf

play

Keaton Wagler loses the defender then splashes a 3 for Illinois

Keaton Wagler loses the defender then splashes an open 3-pointer for Illinois.

What to find out about Illinois

No. 1 issue that helped Illinois attain the Ultimate 4: The Illini’s offense is likely one of the most effective in KenPom historical past, however it was their protection that sparked this run to Indianapolis. They held VCU to 55 factors and 0.83 factors per possession within the spherical of 32, Houston to 55 factors and 0.94 factors per possession within the Candy 16 and Iowa to 59 factors and 1.08 factors per possession within the Elite Eight. They’ve protected the rim and the paint at an extremely excessive stage, limiting all three of the aforementioned opponents to beneath 48% contained in the arc. (Iowa had solely seven 2-pointers on Saturday.)

It is a dramatic enchancment from their defensive efficiency late within the common season, when the Illini noticed six of their closing 9 opponents rating not less than 1.17 factors per possession, struggling 5 of their eight losses over that stretch. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat, however their protection all of a sudden trying like a top-10 unit has been a season-changing improvement for coach Brad Underwood’s group. — Borzello

Illinois’ keys towards UConn: The most important key might be to restrict Reed — or get him into foul bother. Reed has been some of the dominant massive males of this NCAA event, and his capacity to attain on the rim in single protection has bailed out the Huskies’ inconsistent perimeter capturing. However with Eric Reibe not practically as efficient as he was earlier within the season, UConn takes a large hit at each ends of the court docket when Reed is out.

The opposite key would be the 3-point battle. The Huskies have made double-digit 3s as soon as since Feb. 18, however they have not given up double-digit made 3s over that very same span. Illinois makes an attempt 3s at the next price than nearly any group within the nation, whereas UConn’s shotmakers — Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Mullins — have been inconsistent. The Illini may outshoot the Huskies. — Borzello

UConn vs. Illinois Predictions

Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 74-72
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn, 77-73