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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 13 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with an excellent slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we now have you coated with what you’ll want to know for the vacation’s three matchups.
Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the most important keys to each recreation, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every contest. The ESPN Analysis staff supplies an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every matchup, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X elements, and three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us last rating picks for each recreation. Plus, we have a look at the very best moments from every staff’s Thanksgiving historical past.
Let’s begin with the Bears and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for the 20th time.
Soar to a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB
12:30 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -10 (48.5 O/U)
Bears storyline to look at: Vast receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per goal in Weeks 1-10 to 1.9 after the Bears made Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets that got here behind the road of scrimmage in opposition to the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a landing. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a league excessive over the previous two weeks. Detroit’s protection has allowed 4.3 yards per goal on passes behind the road of scrimmage, which is the fourth-lowest common within the league, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Courtney Cronin
Lions storyline to look at: On a brief week, can the Lions ship their first Thanksgiving victory since 2016? Though they’re off to their greatest begin in 90 years, Detroit will attempt to restrict distractions through the annual vacation recreation, as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to relaxation, get better and concentrate on the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40-plus factors in three straight house video games and can attempt to proceed that tempo. “We have not received on Thanksgiving shortly, and that is one thing we wish to change,” quarterback Jared Goff mentioned following Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Lions would be the seventh staff up to now 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving because the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Every of the earlier six groups went on to win their video games.
Daring prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having one other nice season, with 0.9 yards per protection snap allowed, effectively under the 1.2 common for outdoor corners (per Subsequent Gen Stats). — Walder
Fantasy X issue: Lions operating again Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks twelfth in run block win price, and the staff is third in dashing makes an attempt per recreation. As David Montgomery offers with a shoulder damage on a brief week, count on the Lions to lean much more on Gibbs. The Bears’ defensive entrance ranks twenty sixth in run cease win price, so Detroit’s floor recreation may have an enormous day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-4 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) of their previous 5 video games, and 4 of their previous 5 video games have gone below the full. Read more.
Kahler’s choose: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody’s choose: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder’s choose: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (by a median of 11.0 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: That is the second-most-common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions’ 22 conferences. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving sequence 11-8, together with three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit final received in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams improving under OC Thomas Brown … Cairo Santos accepts blame for ‘stink’ with blocks … How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbooks’ worst enemy
4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to look at: The Giants are available reeling and on the verge of implosion. They’ve dropped six straight, and players called their effort “gentle” in Sunday’s 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers following the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 throughout that stretch and relied on Tommy DeVito, beforehand the third-string quarterback, final week. DeVito was sacked 4 instances and is now a long shot to play Thursday because of a forearm damage. That places Drew Lock in line for his first begin with the Giants. — Jordan Raanan
Cowboys storyline to look at: Can they put collectively a profitable streak? Can they really win a recreation at house? The Cowboys final received two straight in Weeks 4 and 5 and have but to win a recreation at AT&T Stadium this season. They’ve trailed by greater than 20 factors in every of their previous six house video games, together with the playoffs, which is an NFL document. However that is the Giants, who’re coming off an embarrassing Week 12 performance. And the Cowboys have received seven straight video games in opposition to them at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Giants defensive sort out Dexter Lawrence II had 9 sacks by way of Week 7, which was essentially the most in NFL. He has had zero sacks since then, however yet another would make him the third Giants participant with double-digit sacks by way of 12 video games up to now 15 seasons.
Daring prediction: Malik Nabers will document 90-plus receiving yards. He is nonetheless rocking a 99 open rating via ESPN’s receiver scores, the very best potential, which implies he is doing his job to get open — whether or not or not his quarterback can get him the ball. I feel Lock beginning is an efficient factor (relative to DeVito) for Nabers, particularly after he complained about not getting a first-half goal final week. — Walder
7:12
Can Mike McCarthy save his job, and is Invoice Belichick a very good match for the Cowboys?
Stephen A. Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Tedy Bruschi debate whether or not or not Mike McCarthy may have the ability to nonetheless save his job or if Invoice Belichick can be a very good match for the Cowboys.
Fantasy X issue: Cowboys large receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular-season video games without quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 12.0 targets and 16.8 fantasy factors per recreation. With Rush under center, he ought to get loads of seems, particularly as a result of the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to finish 70.8% of their passes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play groups with dropping data this season. Read more.
Kahler’s choose: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody’s choose: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder’s choose: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (by a median of 1.2 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1993, Cowboys defensive sort out Leon Lett tried to get better a blocked profitable area purpose try. The ball was booted ahead by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins on the 2-yard line. Miami related on its subsequent area purpose try and received 16-14. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for Hall of Fame, but when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild win a stepping stone to a late playoff push? … Inside the wild Cowboys win against the Commanders
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Universo/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to look at: The Dolphins are winless below coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures below 40 levels — and temperatures in Inexperienced Bay are anticipated to drop under freezing. McDaniel mentioned his staff is effectively conscious of the narrative about its incapability to play in chilly climate. However Miami is bringing one of the crucial environment friendly offenses over the previous month into this matchup. No NFL staff has scored on the next share of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins (56.3%). — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Packers storyline to look at: The Packers may need lastly ironed out their pink zone points. They scored touchdowns on all 5 of their pink zone drives (together with three scoring runs by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers after rating twenty seventh in landing share contained in the 20 earlier than the sport. As a result of the Dolphins rank seventh in pink zone protection, this Thanksgiving contest may present whether or not that is for actual or a fluke. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers compelled three or extra takeaways for the sixth time this season against the 49ers, which is essentially the most within the NFL. They scored 22 factors off turnovers, which is their most in a recreation since Week 17 of 2022.
Daring prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson will document two or extra sacks. The rookie move rusher has actually been approaching strong lately. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in move rush win price for the second straight week (42.1%). — Walder
Fantasy X issue: Dolphins operating again De’Von Achane. He’s essential on this must-win recreation for Miami, because it seems to get again into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one in every of its most harmful playmakers? Achane has scored 20-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5 video games. The Packers’ protection has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per recreation to operating backs this season, making his dual-threat talent set particularly helpful. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in video games when it is 32 levels or under below coach Matt LaFleur, together with the playoffs. Read more.
Kahler’s choose: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody’s choose: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder’s choose: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (by a median of 6.5 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: That is simply the third time the Packers have performed at house on Thanksgiving. The opposite matchups have been a 1923 win over the Hammond Execs and a 17-13 loss to the Bears in 2015. In opposition to Chicago, Inexperienced Bay was stuffed on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill’s traffic citations dismissed after officers’ no-show … McDaniel hints at ‘tantrum’ to avoid Calais Campbell trade … Jacobs, rushing game give Packers something to rely on
