BBC correspondents on the wins and potential losses

US President Donald Trump has arrived in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy, which features a much-anticipated assembly along with his Chinese language counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Prime of the agenda will likely be commerce – an space the place tensions between the world’s two greatest economies have as soon as once more been ramping up.

Trump landed within the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, as a summit for the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, begins on Sunday. He’ll then go to Japan and eventually South Korea, the place the White Home says he’ll meet Xi.

So what are the wins Trump and different leaders are hoping for, and what are the pitfalls?

Our correspondents clarify what it’s best to know concerning the week forward.

By Anthony Zurcher, North America correspondent

Inking new commerce offers that present alternatives to American companies whereas holding the tariff income flowing into the US Treasury is certain to be a central focus of Trump’s Asia journey.

Whereas there are a number of gamers within the international commerce dance, the important thing to Trump’s success or failure is China. And Trump’s scheduled assembly with Chinese language chief Xi Jinping on the sidelines of Apec – the primary since 2019 – may set the course for US-China relations for the remainder of Trump’s second time period in workplace.

Because the US president has acknowledged, draconian tariffs on Chinese language imports are unsustainable. And whereas he has not explicitly stated so, an escalating financial conflict with America’s largest buying and selling associate would have devastating penalties – for the US, for China and for the remainder of the world.

The steep tumbles within the main US inventory indexes each time China and the US seem at an deadlock underlines this actuality.

When he heads again to America subsequent week, Trump is certain to be happy if he is ready to finalise a cope with South Korea and safe new Japanese funding in US manufacturing.

However his prime precedence is certain to be convincing Xi to renew purchases of American agricultural exports, loosen latest restrictions on overseas entry to Chinese language uncommon earth supplies, give US firms higher entry to the Chinese language market and keep away from a full-blown commerce conflict.

For Trump, because the saying goes, that is the entire ballgame.

By Laura Bicker, China correspondent

When Chinese language chief Xi Jinping meets Trump on 30 October in South Korea, he desires to be the harder negotiator.

That’s the reason he has been leveraging China’s stranglehold on uncommon earths, the minerals with out which you can not make semiconductors, weapons methods, vehicles and even smartphones. It is a US weak point, and China is exploiting it – identical to it’s hurting American farmers, and Trump’s rural vote base, by not shopping for their soybeans.

Xi has additionally discovered classes from Trump 1.0 and this time, Beijing, it seems, is prepared to embrace the ache of tariffs. For one, the US, which as soon as took in a fifth of Chinese language exports, is not such an important market.

Nonetheless Xi has a steadiness to strike, between an financial battle with the US, and his wrestle with home challenges. And Washington is aware of about Xi’s troubles: excessive youth unemployment, an actual property disaster, mounting native authorities debt and a inhabitants unwilling to spend.

Analysts consider China might provide to do a deal if Trump agrees to begin exporting superior AI chips or pull again on extra navy assist for Taiwan.

However getting there will not be straightforward. One huge distinction is that it usually looks as if Trump is prepared to roll a cube and gamble – however Xi is taking part in a for much longer recreation.

So the query could also be: can Trump wait it out?

By Jonathan Head, South East Asia correspondent

The US president seems inquisitive about one factor solely throughout his go to to Malaysia: taking part in the starring position in a ceremony organized specifically for him, at which Thailand and Cambodia will signal some form of peace accord.

Variations between the 2 nations over their border stay unresolved, however, underneath strain to give you one thing, they’ve made progress in agreeing to demilitarise the border.

Neither can afford to disappoint President Trump. Again in July, once they had been nonetheless bombing and shelling one another, his risk to finish tariff talks pressured them into a right away ceasefire.

Different Asean member states will hope for Trump’s mere presence, temporary although it’s, to normalise relations with the US.

They’ve had a tumultuous yr by which their export-dependent economies had been badly shaken by his tariff conflict. Exports from the area to the US have doubled since Trump’s final go to to the Asean summit in 2017.

As soon as Trump leaves, the opposite leaders can settle all the way down to regular enterprise – the quiet, incremental diplomacy which advances the plodding progress of integration amongst them.

Additionally on the agenda is a battle that does not have Trump’s consideration – the civil conflict in Myanmar, which has haunted each Asean gathering because it was triggered by a brutal coup in 2021.

By Suranjana Tewari, Asia enterprise correspondent

Asia’s manufacturing powerhouses, which make up a lot of the world’s output, will likely be searching for respite from Trump’s tariffs.

Some have agreed offers, whereas others are nonetheless caught in talks – however none have signed an settlement.

So ink on paper, or no less than promising talks, could be welcome.

Take China. The assembly between Trump and Xi alerts progress, however the two leaders have so much to unpick, from levies and export controls, to the supply of all of it: rivalry between the world’s two greatest economies as they compete for an edge in AI and superior tech.

Any ease in these tensions would convey aid to different nations within the area who’ve been caught within the center. South East Asia will be the most trapped – it’s deeply woven into US provide chains in electronics, for instance, but closely reliant on Chinese language demand.

Exports to the US have doubled over the previous decade, however tariffs of 10% to 40% would pummel producers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

It may additionally harm US chipmakers like Micron Know-how, which operates crops in Malaysia. The nation exported round $10bn value of semiconductors to the US final yr, roughly a fifth of whole US chip imports.

Rich economies like Japan and South Korea face a distinct dilemma.

Though shut allies of the US, they’re in for an unpredictable time – and can wish to lock in tariff phrases and investments. Automakers in each nations, which see the US as a key market, are already struggling to navigate the chaos.

By Shaimaa Khalil, Japan correspondent

Trump has described Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, as a lady with nice “power and knowledge”.

This week, her skill to forge a secure, working relationship with him will likely be an early check of her management – and of Japan’s place in a shifting world order.

In her first speech in parliament, she pledged to boost Japan’s defence funds, signalling her intent to shoulder extra of the safety burden with Washington.

Trump has spoken of this earlier than and is anticipated to press Tokyo to contribute extra to US troop deployments – Japan hosts the biggest variety of American forces overseas, about 53,000 personnel.

Each side additionally wish to finalise a tariff deal negotiated by her predecessor.

Notably useful to Japan’s auto giants – Toyota, Honda and Nissan – it cuts US import duties on Japanese vehicles from 27.5% to fifteen%, doubtlessly making them extra aggressive towards Chinese language rivals.

By retaining Ryosei Akazawa as chief tariff negotiator, Takaichi is betting on continuity.

In return, Japan has pledged to take a position $550bn within the US to strengthen provide chains in prescription drugs and semiconductors.

Trump has additionally stated Japan will enhance purchases of US farm merchandise, together with rice, a transfer welcomed in Washington however unsettling for Japanese farmers.

Takaichi’s ties to the late former PM Shinzo Abe, who shared an in depth rapport with Trump, may additionally work in her favour.

Abe famously used rounds of golf at Mar-a-Lago to earn Trump’s belief – it is the form of private diplomacy Takaichi might search to emulate.

By Jake Kwon, Seoul correspondent

For South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, the urgent problem is Trump’s tariffs.

However that thunder was briefly stolen by rampant hypothesis that Trump may go to the border to see North Korean chief Kim Jong Un.

Again in August, Lee devoted most of his time within the Oval Workplace to flatter Trump as a “peacemaker”. Trump responded with enthusiasm to the prospect of sitting down with Kim, who he hasn’t seen since 2019. Kim stated final month that he nonetheless remembers Trump “fondly”.

Analysts consider Kim is hoping to legitimise his nuclear weapons programme with one other summit with the US president. There isn’t a indication {that a} assembly is within the works.

Both means, Lee has a commerce deal to barter. Talks to decrease US duties on South Korean exports from 25% to fifteen% have stalled, regardless of a number of journeys by Seoul officers to Washington. The sticking level is Trump’s insistence that Seoul make investments $350bn upfront within the US – roughly a fifth of South Korea’s economic system, such an enormous funding may create a monetary disaster, Seoul fears.

However in latest days, Korean officers have voiced hope, talking of tangible progress. And they are going to be hoping for a signed deal by the tip of Wednesday’s summit between Trump and Lee.