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Tim Vickery, South America correspondent
Qualification for the 2026 World Cup in South America kicked off with six rounds final 12 months, lower than 9 months after Lionel Messi and Argentina received the 2022 remaining in Qatar.
Since September, one other six have been performed, leaving the marketing campaign two thirds full. Any further, issues are just a little extra spaced out with double-headers in late March, early June and mid-September.
So, after the newest frantic burst of matches, what are the large questions hanging over the groups as they put together for his or her remaining push to achieve the finals within the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Argentina
1st place: 25 factors (purpose distinction, +14)
Is an excellent period coming to a detailed?
Tuesday’s 1-0 win over Peru took Argentina to 25 factors. In all the earlier 10-team campaigns, that has been sufficient to ensure sixth place. For the reason that high six groups qualify mechanically for 2026, we are able to safely conclude that with a 3rd of the matches nonetheless to go, the World Cup holders have already carried out sufficient to make sure they are going to be there in North America to defend their crown.
And but. There’s a obscure sense of unease round, maybe finest expressed by Juan Pablo Varsky, one of many nation’s main soccer writers. After final week’s 2-1 defeat to Paraguay, he wrote that the Peru sport would “signify one thing crucial — the tip of the nucleus that we now have come to know as the most effective Argentina facet ever.”
He’s referring to a sense that the present workforce could have handed its peak — that Ángel Di María is unattainable to exchange, that Messi’s worldwide future stays unsure, maybe to a view that the facet wants a rethink. Can Messi function along with each Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez? Most likely not in opposition to the most effective sides. “The second has come,” Varsky concluded, “to resume, change, search for options.” We are going to quickly discover out if coach Lionel Scaloni agrees with him.
Uruguay
2nd: 20 (+8)
Has the storm handed?
This time final 12 months, Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay had simply crushed Brazil and Argentina, and had been the continent’s in-form workforce. The coach appeared a superb match for an ageing facet in want of a altering of the guard.
However issues began to go mistaken through the Copa América. The long-term damage to Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araújo has despatched shudders all by means of the facet, after which there may be the query of the connection between a notoriously eccentric coach and his gamers. After retiring from worldwide soccer, Luis Suárez went public with an inventory of complaints that appeared to be broadly shared within the dressing room, and out of the blue Uruguay had been plunged into disaster. They failed to attain for 4 video games, even managing to lose to Peru, and extra poor outcomes this month might need made the state of affairs unsustainable. And the opponents had been powerful.
However Uruguay rallied for a dramatic win over Colombia and a battling draw away to Brazil. Bielsa’s choices paid off: leaving Manuel Ugarte, by the coach’s admission the most effective participant of his reign, out of the beginning lineup in opposition to Colombia; taking Darwin Núñez off at half-time in opposition to Brazil labored out OK. Uruguay appear to be again heading in the right direction.
Ecuador
third: 19 (+7)
Have they discovered the lacking piece?
Ecuador have a declare to be probably the most stable facet in CONMEBOL qualifying. Had been it not for a three-point penalty they’d be second within the desk. Tuesday’s 1-0 win away to Colombia may be the most effective efficiency of the whole marketing campaign — each for the best way they managed the sport for the primary 20 minutes. and likewise for a way they defended for over an hour after having Piero Hincapié despatched off.
The defensive unit is extraordinarily spectacular. Simply 4 targets conceded in 12 video games tells its personal story. Ecuador have a powerful crop of centre-backs, and Moisés Caicedo spearheads a dynamic, athletic midfield. The issue is on the different finish, the place there’s a dearth of strikers. Ecuador stay over-dependent on Enner Valencia — whose winner in opposition to Colombia was very good, however who’s now on the veteran stage. There are few options. Kevin Rodríguez is a prepared tryer, however not a constant purpose menace. Leo Campana struggles bodily at this stage.
However not less than Gonzalo Plata is again. The robust, left-footed winger was a star of Ecuador’s glorious under-20 facet of 2019. Since then his nomadic profession has proved wayward, on and off the pitch. He lately joined Flamengo in Brazil, and after an uneasy begin is starting to flower. He was a giant plus level for Ecuador on this month’s video games, and if he can keep constant he can add enormously to the workforce’s firepower.
Colombia
4th: 19 (+5)
How will the coach react to his first disaster?
Nestor Lorenzo went two years unbeaten with Colombia till falling to Argentina within the remaining of the Copa América. His workforce had been nonetheless the one unbeaten facet within the World Cup qualifiers — however they’ve now misplaced three of their final 4 matches. That is new territory for Lorenzo and his males.
True, all three had been slim, single-goal defeats. However how a lot will this sequence shake the religion of the dressing room? Will there be a severe rethink? James Rodríguez is important to the workforce, however at what level does his lack of exercise at membership stage develop into an issue? Will Jhon Durán be trusted to develop into the common first-choice centre-forward? In the meanwhile that position typically belongs to Jhon Córdoba, however the extra the coach insists with him the extra probabilities he misses.
Subsequent up, on the finish of March, with Duran as soon as extra suspended, is the go to to Brazil, a sport the place Colombia can anticipate to be severely examined. After that one, many of the remaining fixtures look simpler, however one other defeat (a fourth in 5 video games) might open up the injuries of a technology of gamers nonetheless affected by the trauma of lacking out on the Qatar World Cup. Colombia will certainly be current in 2026. A number of months in the past it appeared as if they may even journey to North America as one of many match surprises. Can they protect that perception?
1:13
What occurred to Messi in Argentina’s loss vs. Paraguay?
Herculez Gomez reacts to Lionel Messi’s efficiency in Argentina’s 2-1 loss in opposition to Paraguay.
Brazil
fifth: 18 (+6)
What’s stopping Brazil enjoying to their potential?
Lots of these current in a half-full stadium in Salvador jeered the house facet on Tuesday after Brazil had been held to a 1-1 draw by Uruguay. Fifth place after 12 video games is a poor return for a workforce with such expertise — most nationwide sides would die to have Brazil’s goalkeepers, centre-backs and particularly their wingers.
However maybe therein lies the issue. Brazil’s expertise is erratically distributed across the pitch. There are extra strikers in large areas than they will use. One in all them, Raphinha, is now working extra centrally. Once they go at velocity in area it may be exhilarating, with the opposing defence at full stretch to carry them. However it may well all be too frenetic, too direct, with out pauses and adjustments in rhythm. And likewise, crucially, the best way the facet is ready up is leaving Brazil too open in central midfield. In sport after sport they’re conceding as a result of the opposition are given an excessive amount of area in entrance of Brazil’s line of defense.
The excellent news is that there ought to be no lingering doubts about qualifying for 2026. They had been dismissed by final month’s victories over the underside two groups within the desk. This offers coach Dorival Júnior time to enhance the stability of his facet — and on the street to 2026, he ought to welcome the truth that he has some tough video games forward. Each considered one of them is invaluable follow, as a result of there may be lots of work forward if the workforce are to make good on Dorival’s promise and make all of it the best way to the following World Cup remaining.
Paraguay
sixth: 17 (+1)
How on earth have they carried out it?
After final 12 months’s six rounds Paraguay had solely 5 factors and only one purpose to their identify. Issues then obtained worse. Within the Copa América they had been knocked out within the group section after dropping all three matches. However now they appear properly heading in the right direction to make it to their first World Cup since 2010. On this 12 months’s six rounds they picked up extra factors than anybody else, regardless of a troublesome run of fixtures. This has been a unprecedented flip round, and many of the credit score has to go to Gustavo Alfaro, their third coach of the marketing campaign.
A late option to take cost of Ecuador within the final World Cup cycle, Alfaro took immediately to nationwide workforce soccer. In a prolonged historical past in his native Argentina, Alfaro had carried out finest with smaller groups who’re in a position to play on the counter-attack. This has made him an excellent match for his nationwide groups. He did a effective job with Ecuador and appears to be doing a fair higher one with Paraguay. Low-key, unflashy, he is a superb defensive organiser whose groups may carry an attacking menace.
He has been enormously boosted by the return to health of Brighton & Hove Albion‘s Julio Enciso, who missed final 12 months’s video games by means of damage. And two wins from the remaining six video games may be sufficient to get Paraguay over the road.
Bolivia
seventh: 13 (-14)
Do the numbers add up?
Bolivia all the time appeared more likely to profit from the enlargement of the World Cup. They’re so robust at dwelling — on the excessive altitude of La Paz — that they might hope to make it to their first World Cup since 1994 with out choosing up factors on the street.
However they obtained off to a disastrous begin, dropping their first two dwelling video games. The state of affairs known as for determined measures. This 12 months they’ve moved their dwelling base even increased, to the stadium in El Alto, which makes life even more durable for unacclimatised opponents. After which got here September’s shock win away to Chile, their first victory on the street in World Cup qualification for over 30 years.
It appeared, then, only a case of profitable the remaining dwelling video games. However they’ve simply dropped two factors with a 2-2 draw with Paraguay. This places the stress on. There are three extra dwelling matches. Win them and Bolivia go to 21 factors — in all probability not sufficient to complete within the high six, however more likely to be adequate to come back seventh and have the possibility of a play off.
Venezuela
eighth: 12 (-4)
On the street to heartbreak?
A 12 months in the past, after six rounds, Venezuela had been mendacity fourth within the desk — above Brazil — and dreaming of lastly making their World Cup debut. Such perception was bolstered by a promising Copa América. However the subsequent six rounds have proved extraordinarily disappointing. Venezuela didn’t win a single sport and added solely three factors, the bottom complete of any facet. The 2026 dream is in severe hazard of slipping away. There have been damage issues, particularly to Yangel Herrera, the workforce’s finest midfielder, and time is probably lastly catching up with centre-forward Salomón Rondón.
However all just isn’t misplaced. Venezuela stay robust at their dwelling base of Maturin. In the midst of these final six matches they drew at dwelling with Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil. The remaining dwelling matches embody Peru and Bolivia. After eight rounds and not using a win, Venezuela have it inside them to get again in rivalry for the playoff slot. However can they deal with a state of affairs the place a win is a necessity slightly than a bonus?
Chile
ninth: 9 (-11)
Can coach Gareca pull off a miracle?
Peru had been dreadful earlier than the arrival of Argentine coach Ricardo Gareca, and have been dreadful as soon as extra since his departure. Whereas he was in cost, those self same gamers reached their first World Cup since 1982 and got here very shut to a different.
Can Gareca do one thing comparable with Chile? His reign has been a large disappointment up to now. However Tuesday’s 4-2 win over Venezuela leaves Chile simply 4 factors behind Bolivia, who’re at present within the playoff place. This hardly appears justified. Chile have been so poor — even dropping at dwelling to Bolivia — that they’re extraordinarily fortunate to nonetheless be in with the remotest likelihood of creating it to 2026. However, as we now have seen, Gareca has a monitor report.
Maybe the larger query is that this — how come the Copa América champions of 2015 and 2016 have declined a lot? No replacements have appeared for the golden technology, youth improvement work has been substandard and the transformation of Chile’s golf equipment into enterprise, held up as a panacea 15 years in the past, has not had the specified outcomes. Nonetheless, the potential of 2026 redemption exists — though it’ll nearly definitely want a win away to Bolivia in June. If Gareca can discover a solution to win that sport, then he actually will probably be a miracle employee.
Peru
tenth: 7 (-12)
Did anybody actually anticipate something higher?
A dismal complete of three targets in 12 video games tells its personal story. Uruguayan coach Jorge Fossati, the second of the marketing campaign, has tried to make his workforce stable, along with his favorite again three system. However it has come at the price of posing an attacking menace. The unhappy reality is that he has little to work with. Approaching his forty first birthday, Paolo Guerrero continues to be the centre-forward.
Peruvian soccer goes by means of a dismal time. The final time one of many nation’s golf equipment made it out of the group section within the Copa Libertadores, South America’s Champions League, was again in 2013. Peru has simply misplaced the proper to stage the continent’s U20 competitors initially of subsequent 12 months. The president of the native soccer affiliation was lately arrested, accused of heading a legal organisation. It’s no shock that Peru sit on the backside of the desk.
