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David Hale, ESPN Employees Author
The committee has launched its second crack at the top 25, and it is (virtually) all Huge Ten on the prime.
That may appear a bit unusual to the convention that boasts probably the most playoff-caliber groups and probably the most nonconference wins towards different Energy 4 leagues, and in addition has Paul Finebaum there to remind everybody simply how offended they need to be at this affront to common sense.
With that, we’ll deal with a lot of Finebaum’s homework for him. Here is this week’s Anger Index.
1. The SEC
Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, and one factor appears abundantly clear: The SEC is the perfect convention in school soccer. Check out Invoice Connelly’s SP+ rankings, for instance, the place 9 of the highest 17 groups are from the SEC. Or use ESPN’s FPI metric, the place the SEC has spots 1, 2, 4, 5 and 9. Contemplate that the crew at present ninth within the SEC standings, South Carolina, has three wins over SP+ top-40 groups and losses to the committee’s No. 10 and 22 groups by a mixed whole of 5 factors.
Sure, the SEC’s dominance and depth appear apparent.
So, in fact, 4 of the highest 5 groups within the committee’s rankings this week are from the SEC.
Wait, no, sorry about that. We’re getting late phrase right here that, actually, it is the Huge Ten with groups No. 1, 2, 4 and 5 on this week’s rankings.
It is not that these 4 Huge Ten groups are not any good. Oregon (No. 1) has chewed up and spit out almost all comers this season. Ohio State (No. 2) is the perfect squad the gross home product of Estonia can purchase. Penn State (No. 4), nicely, the Nittany Lions nonetheless have not overwhelmed Ohio State, however we assume the remainder of the résumé is OK. Indiana (No. 5) is blowing the doorways off folks.
However that is it. The remainder of the Huge Ten is a large number. You want a magnifying glass to search out Michigan‘s QB manufacturing. Iowa lastly discovered the best way to rating and one way or the other has gotten worse. Minnesota seemed just like the next-best crew within the convention, and the Gophers have losses to North Carolina and Rutgers.
An absence of depth doesn’t inherently imply the groups on the prime usually are not elite. Certainly, the opposite groups in any convention stay impartial variables when addressing the ceiling for anyone crew. If the Kansas City Chiefs joined the Solar Belt, Patrick Mahomes would nonetheless be a magician and Andy Reid would nonetheless be saying “Bundle-a-rooskie-doo” in your nightmares.
However the chilly, onerous information are these: Indiana’s greatest win got here final week towards Michigan (No. 40 in SP+) by 3. Penn State’s greatest win (by SP+) got here by 3 towards a below-.500 USC crew that simply benched its QB. Ohio State is completely elite on paper, however on the sphere, the Buckeyes’ success is fully buoyed by a 20-13 win at Penn State, a crew we additionally know little or no about.
The SEC will get flack for boasting of its greatness routinely, and to make sure, that narrative has usually bolstered less-than-elite groups. However this yr, each cheap metric suggests the SEC’s manufacturing really matches its ego, and when Ole Miss (No. 11), Georgia (No. 12), Alabama (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 15) — all with two losses — are dogged on account of enjoying in a league the place each different crew warrants a spot within the prime 25, it undermines the complete level of getting a committee that may use its judgment quite than merely take a look at the standings.
Let’s evaluate two groups with blind résumés.
Group A: 8-1 report, No. 14 in ESPN’s power of report. Greatest win got here vs. SP+ No. 20, loss got here to a top-10 crew by 3. Has 4 wins vs. Energy 4 groups with a profitable report, by a mean of 14 factors.
Group B: 8-1 report, No. 11 in ESPN’s power of report. Greatest win got here vs. SP+ No. 28, loss got here to a top-15 crew by 15. Has one win vs. a Energy 4 crew with a profitable report, by 3.
So, which crew has the higher résumé?
This should not take too lengthy to determine. Group A seems higher by virtually each metric, proper?
Properly, Group A is SMU, who checks in at No. 14 on this week’s rating.
Group B, although? That’d be the Mustangs’ outdated associates from the Southwest Convention, the Texas Longhorns. Texas checks in at No. 3.
Maybe you’ve got watched sufficient of each Texas and SMU to suppose the attention take a look at favors the Longhorns. That is honest. However ought to the attention take a look at account for 11 spots within the rankings? In some unspecified time in the future, the outcomes must matter extra.
Or, maybe it is the model that issues to the committee. If that very same résumé belonged to a college that hadn’t simply purchased its approach into the Energy 4 this yr, it is onerous to think about they would not be within the prime 10 with ease.
Let’s dig into three completely different groups nonetheless hoping for a playoff bid, even when the chances are towards them at this level.
Group A: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ prime 40. No. 28 in ESPN’s power of report. Losses by a mixed 18 factors.
Group B: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ prime 40. No. 25 in ESPN’s power of report. Losses by a mixed 13 factors.
Group C: 7-2, no wins over SP+ prime 40. No. 24 in ESPN’s power of report. Losses by a mixed 21 factors.
You can cut up hairs right here, however the backside line is none has a very compelling résumé, they usually’re all fairly related.
So, who’re they?
Group B is Iowa State, which plummeted from the rankings after shedding two straight. However the committee is not purported to care while you misplaced your video games. Dropping in September will not be higher than shedding in November. At the least that is what they are saying.
Group A is Arizona State. Its 10-point loss to Cincinnati got here with out beginning QB Sam Leavitt and was due, a minimum of partially, to a kicking recreation so traumatic head coach Kenny Dillingham held an open tryout afterward. The Solar Devils and Cyclones are two of three two-loss Energy 4 groups unranked this week (alongside Pitt), however in contrast to Iowa State and Pitt, Arizona State is not coming off back-to-back losses. The Solar Devils’ absence appears fully correlated to the truth that nobody believed this crew can be any good coming into the season, and so few folks have seemed carefully sufficient to alter their minds that the committee feels comfy ignoring them.
The crew the committee cannot ignore, nevertheless, is Group C. That will be Colorado. Coach Prime has satisfied the world the Buffaloes are for actual, even when nothing on their résumé — a No. 77 power of schedule, worse than 7-2 Western Kentucky‘s — means that’s something near a certainty.
The Huge 12 stays large open, however it’s to the committee’s detriment that it has so eagerly dismissed two of the higher groups simply because they are not as enjoyable to speak about.
Has Missouri performed with hearth this yr? You betcha. Simply final week, the Tigers have been on the verge of falling to Oklahoma earlier than the Sooners’ woeful QB scenario reared its ugly head once more and the sport resulted in a 30-23 Tigers win.
However this is the factor about enjoying with hearth: As long as you do not flip your front room into an inferno, it is really fairly spectacular.
Missouri is 7-2 with wins towards SP+ Nos. 26 and 28, and its solely losses are to the committee’s No. 10 and No. 15 groups. SP+ has Missouri at No. 17, although we will chalk that as much as Connelly’s hometown bias. However No. 23? After a top-10 season in 2023, do not the Tigers deserve a bit good thing about the doubt? They at present path three three-loss groups (Louisville, South Carolina and LSU) and are behind Boise State, Colorado, Washington State and Clemson, who, mixed, have precisely one win over SP+ top-40 groups.
There is a good likelihood that, ought to Brady Cook not return to the lineup, Missouri will get waxed at South Carolina on Saturday, after which the argument is moot. However the committee is not purported to look forward and take guesses at what it believes would possibly occur (Florida State’s snub final yr however). It is supposed to guage primarily based on what’s on the books to this point, and placing Missouri this far down the rankings appears greater than a tad harsh.
The committee threw a pleasant bone to the non-Energy 4 colleges this week, with 4 groups ranked, together with No. 25 Tulane Green Wave. That appears deserved, given Tulane’s current run. However what’s it, precisely, that places the Inexperienced Wave forward of UNLV?
UNLV has the No. 31 power of report. Tulane is No. 32.
UNLV has the No. 98 power of schedule performed. Tulane is No. 96.
Tulane has a one-possession loss to a top-20 crew. UNLV has a one-possession loss to a top-20 crew.
The important thing distinction between the 2 is UNLV has wins towards two Energy 4 opponents — Houston and Kansas. Houston, by the best way, simply knocked off Kansas State, a crew that beat Tulane.
So maybe the committee ought to unfold a bit extra love outdoors the Energy 4.
Additionally Indignant: Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, unranked), Duke Blue Devils (7-3, unranked), Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, No. 12), Utah Utes AD Mark Harlan (the Utes can be ranked if Huge 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark hadn’t rigged the system!) and UConn Huskies (7-3, unranked and thus prohibiting us from Jim Mora Jr. giving a “You wanna discuss playoffs?!?” rant).
