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Invoice Connelly
Texas, Penn State and Clemson have been among the many preseason nationwide title favorites however fell effectively quick. Ohio State spent a lot of the season at No. 1 within the polls however misplaced to Indiana within the Large Ten championship recreation and rapidly bowed out to Miami within the Faculty Soccer Playoff. And now we all know our nationwide title recreation matchup.
The Hoosiers and Hurricanes will play within the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T on Jan. 19 in Miami’s Onerous Rock Stadium; the previous need to full an otherworldly 16-game run to win their first crown, whereas the latter have rekindled outdated magic and can play for his or her first title since 2001.
On Thursday evening within the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami watched a number of leads disappear, dropped a number of potential interceptions, dedicated penalties and nonetheless gutted its means into the CFP championship recreation with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss. Carson Beck‘s 3-yard landing run made the distinction, but it surely was an exquisite back-and-forth recreation till the tip.
On Friday night within the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Indiana did not waste any time. The Hoosiers led 7-0 after one play in opposition to Oregon and 35-7 at halftime, ultimately cruising 56-22. They’ve been the perfect workforce within the nation, and so they’ve performed their two finest video games prior to now two weeks.
Listed here are the important thing performs and takeaways from each semifinals.
Bounce to a recreation: Oregon-Indiana | Ole Miss-Miami
What simply occurred?
The very best workforce within the nation performed prefer it but once more. In entrance of a lopsided Mercedes-Benz Stadium crowd in Atlanta, Indiana scored on a D’Angelo Ponds pick-six on the primary play of the sport, and although Oregon responded with a prolonged landing drive, the Hoosiers ratcheted up the stress and cruised.
Two extra Oregon turnovers led to touchdowns, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza accomplished 17 of 20 passes, 5 for scores, and Indiana led 42-7 early within the second half. Oregon’s offense made some performs within the third quarter however could not do a lot harm on the scoreboard, and a blocked punt by sophomore Daniel Ndukwe — who additionally had two sacks and a pressured fumble in a profession recreation — arrange Mendoza’s fifth TD go of the night to make it 49-15. And the Hoosiers saved rolling from there.
Of their previous two video games, Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have overwhelmed Alabama and Oregon by a mixed 69 factors. Clearly, upsets can occur, however they are going to be comfy favorites to win the nationwide title over Miami and turn out to be the second main school soccer workforce to complete a season 16-0, becoming a member of Yale in 1894. If you have not wrapped your head across the Hoosiers’ being this rattling good, you are working out of time.
Affect performs
This was an early-round knockout.
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Indiana begins off Peach Bowl with an electrical pick-six
Oregon QB Dante Moore goes to go, however is picked off by Indiana’s D’Angelo Ponds, who takes it to the crib for a landing.
With Ponds’ first-play pick-six, Indiana’s win chance instantly jumped to 76%, and whereas Oregon would quickly tie the rating, the Hoosiers took the lead once more, then took benefit of a gifted fumble. The following TD pushed their win chance previous 90%.
0:59
Indiana scores TD after weird Dante Moore fumble
After Indiana recovers a fumble by Dante Moore, Kaelon Black punches it in for the Hoosiers just a few performs later.
Indicators have been rapidly pointing to a straightforward Hoosiers win, and Charlie Becker‘s 36-yard landing catch over Brandon Finney Jr. late within the second quarter mainly ended the sport.
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Charlie Becker makes sensational leaping seize for an Indiana TD
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza lobs it to Charlie Becker ultimately zone, who makes an unimaginable leaping catch for the rating.
One stat I centered on on this recreation was Oregon’s success charge. The Geese have been ruthlessly environment friendly in 2025, posting a 49.1% success charge on the season, ninth within the nation. However they have been at simply 34.4% within the first recreation in opposition to the Hoosiers. It had to enhance for them to have an opportunity, and it was at 46.7% once they tied the rating at 7-7. Nevertheless it was simply 25.0% for the remainder of the primary half. That, plus the turnover disasters, completed this off by halftime.
See you subsequent fall, Geese
Dan Lanning has constructed an excellent program in Eugene. The Geese are 38-5 over the previous three seasons, shedding solely to nationwide finalists (Washington twice in 2023, Oregon in 2024, Indiana twice in 2025). They’ve a top-five roster by way of recruiting rankings, and this must be the third straight yr during which they end with a top-five SP+ rating. Dynamite stuff. However the Geese have face-planted to finish the previous two seasons. After falling behind 34-0 in lower than two quarters in opposition to Ohio State in last year’s quarterfinals, they generated mainly the identical win chance chart Friday evening.
Lanning might be upset by how simple the Geese made it for Indiana within the first half. The defensive entrance six performed effectively: Linebacker Bryce Boettcher was a sideline-to-sideline disruptor as ordinary, freshman defensive finish Nasir Wyatt had an incredible sack-and-strip of Mendoza within the first half, and after gaining 41 yards on their first six carries, IU’s Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black gained solely 52 of their subsequent 22. However due to the pick-six and a few Dante Moore fumbles deep in Geese territory — together with one which was by chance pressured by working again Dierre Hill Jr. — Indiana scored its first 42 factors whereas gaining simply 255 yards of offense.
Nonetheless, you may make a great case that Oregon arrived to the semifinals forward of schedule. The Geese had a newly reconstructed offensive line and a brand new beginning quarterback (albeit a blue-chipper and potential future high NFL draft choose in Moore), and so they relied on freshmen reminiscent of working backs Jordon Davison (injured for Friday’s recreation) and Hill, receivers Dakorien Moore and Jeremiah McClellan, nook Brandon Finney Jr. and security Aaron Flowers.
We’ll have to attend and see if Dante Moore returns to Eugene, and Lanning will transfer ahead with two new coordinators after shedding Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal) to go teaching gigs. However Oregon will once more have one of the crucial loaded rosters within the nation in 2026. Principally, the one factor Lanning hasn’t engineered to date is an look within the title recreation. It would not really feel like he’ll have to attend for much longer.
(You possibly can forgive him, nonetheless, if he by no means desires to play in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium once more. Together with a 2022 loss to Georgia, his Geese have misplaced twice there by a mixed 105-25.)
What’s subsequent
Indiana will head to Miami to play for its first soccer nationwide title. The Hoosiers open as a 7.5-point favourite, in response to DraftKings Sportsbook, and if current attendance is any indication, the gang might be 50-50 at worst, despite the fact that the sport might be performed in Miami’s dwelling stadium. (In a means, it is also Mendoza’s dwelling stadium. He graduated from Miami Columbus Excessive Faculty.)
The Hurricanes clearly have lots to supply: incredible line play, sturdy ability corps expertise and a team-of-destiny really feel after a magical run of playoff wins. However Indiana is the perfect workforce within the nation and simply must show it another time.
What simply occurred?
Miami paid hundreds of thousands of {dollars} to convey Carson Beck to city, and within the drive that may outline his season with the Hurricanes, he led them 75 yards for the successful landing to ship them to the nationwide title recreation. Cash effectively spent, huh?
Beck’s 3-yard landing scramble with 18 seconds left capped a madcap fourth quarter that featured 4 lead modifications and even noticed Ole Miss drive shut sufficient for a shot on the finish zone on the ultimate play.
The Hurricanes hogged the ball for a lot of the sport — time of possession after three quarters: Miami 33:50, Ole Miss 11:10 — however dropped 4 potential interceptions, missed a subject purpose and threw a choose deep in Rebels territory. Given further life, Ole Miss took two fourth-quarter leads, first on Lucas Carneiro‘s fourth subject purpose of the night, then on a 24-yard landing go from Trinidad Chambliss to Dae’Quan Wright. However with 4 third-down conversions, Beck guided the Canes down the sector and received the sport.
Affect performs
Miami video games do not are likely to characteristic many huge performs, for or in opposition to, however chunk performs prompted some fairly huge swings on this one.
Kewan Lacy‘s 73-yard burst early within the second quarter — Ole Miss’ first good offensive play of the sport — gave the Rebels a sudden 7-3 lead. Lacy tweaked a hamstring and missed a lot of the subsequent two quarters earlier than returning, however the landing purchased Ole Miss a while.
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Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy bursts free for a 73-yard TD
Kewan Lacy goes untouched for a 73-yard landing to provide Ole Miss a 7-3 lead.
Miami leveraged the sport again in its favor. Keelan Marion scored on a bomb in opposition to busted protection late within the first half to make it 17-10. After producing simply 69 receiving yards in his first two playoff video games, he was the semifinal star of the Miami receiving corps, catching seven passes for 114 yards.
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Miami’s Carson Beck connects with Keelan Marion for a 52-yard go-ahead TD
Carson Beck hits a wide-open Keelan Marion, who walks into the tip zone to place the Hurricanes again on high.
Three Carneiro subject objectives — together with a 58-yarder on the finish of the primary half and a doinked-in 52-yarder within the third quarter — would push the Rebels again in entrance, however they wasted a golden alternative after a pair of Miami private fouls (the Canes had 10 penalties on the night) arrange a first-and-goal. Ole Miss gained solely 4 yards in three performs and settled for a 19-17 lead, which disappeared inside two minutes on Malachi Toney‘s 36-yard go off a display go.
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Miami regains lead on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard TD
Malachi Toney evades tackles on his option to a 36-yard landing to provide Miami the lead again.
Ole Miss created the third lead change of the fourth quarter with Wright’s landing however left lots time on the clock for Beck and the Canes. They used most of it, took the lead and broke up a Hail Mary.
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Miami wins after Ole Miss’ Hail Mary try falls incomplete
Trinidad Chambliss airs one out to the tip zone, but it surely’s too far and falls incomplete.
See you subsequent fall, Rebels
Probably the most thrilling and headline-grabbing Ole Miss season in current historical past ended with two straight down-to-the-wire thrillers. The Rebels performed good ball down the stretch, successful their final 4 regular-season video games by a median of 38-14 to clinch a playoff bid regardless of the waves of headlines concerning Lane Kiffin’s potential transfer to LSU. And regardless of Kiffin leaving city and making an attempt to take assistants with him earlier than Ole Miss’ season had ended, the Rebels thumped Tulane within the playoff, got here again from 9 factors down at halftime to beat Georgia within the quarterfinals, then got here again once more to almost beat Miami.
So most of the Rebels’ stars made huge performs Thursday evening. Chambliss threw for 277 yards and a landing and used an incredible 19-yard scramble to arrange Ole Miss’ final go-ahead landing. Lacy rushed for 103 yards on simply 11 carries, reentering the sport after his hamstring harm and grinding out powerful yards. Main receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III mixed for 9 catches and 117 yards, whereas junior Cayden Lee got here up huge (5 for 67) and Wright had three enormous catches, all within the second half. Carneiro’s enormous leg shined once more. On protection, Suntarine Perkins had 1.5 sacks, and linebacker TJ Dottery and security Wydett Williams Jr. made huge performs early throughout Miami’s final drive, which might have been remembered otherwise with a unique ending.
Pete Golding inherited a seemingly not possible scenario with Kiffin leaving, however Ole Miss closed ranks and got here achingly near incomes a spot within the nationwide title recreation. Higher but, stars reminiscent of Chambliss (if he’s granted an additional yr of eligibility) and Lacy have already dedicated to staying in Oxford regardless of Kiffin’s efforts to convey them to Baton Rouge. Some stars have exhausted their eligibility, however Ole Miss enters 2026 battle-hardened and stuffed with upside.
What’s subsequent
Miami will formally play in its first nationwide title recreation in 23 seasons. The Hurricanes are underdogs in opposition to Indiana, however they are going to be enjoying of their dwelling stadium, and so they must really feel just like the patented workforce of future proper about now.
Shut video games have been an enormous situation for the Canes at instances underneath Mario Cristobal, however of their previous three matchups, they’ve received at Texas A&M with a late finish zone cease, overwhelmed Ohio State by 10 with clutch execution and located a well past Ole Miss regardless of so many bounces seemingly going in opposition to them.
Beck had a putrid begin to the second half however produced late heroics. Mark Fletcher Jr. was once more good, speeding for 133 yards. CharMar Brown was once more a tough-yardage grasp, speeding for 54 yards and a landing. Marion was a secret weapon, and Toney, the proficient freshman, arrange a landing with a troublesome third-down conversion within the first half and scored one himself within the fourth quarter.
The protection could not corral Chambliss, recording just one sack, however the Canes allowed only one huge run to Lacy and the backs. They usually completely dominated third downs: Ole Miss went simply 2-for-10 whereas the Canes went 11-for-19. Credit score to the Rebels for practically successful anyway, however the Canes managed most of what they needed to regulate. They hogged the ball superbly, and when that could not win them the sport, they sped up the tempo and received a back-and-forth last quarter.
