ESPN Eliminator Challenge is among the most enjoyable video games to play this NFL season. The foundations are easy: choose one group, and so long as they win (or tie), you advance to the following spherical. In the event that they lose, you might be out. The caveat is you can not choose the identical group twice. If you’re one of many 0.7% of entries to make it this far, give your self a pat on the again.
At this level of the season, monitoring the choose availability in your group is vital, particularly in every week the place one group initiatives because the overwhelming chalk.
The Houston Texans are being picked in over half of remaining Eliminator entries early within the week. They’re accessible for 58% of Eliminator Problem entries, however that may differ for every group. The extra groups which have the Texans accessible, the extra priceless fading them turns into.
Two weeks in the past, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been in an identical state of affairs, getting about 50% of choice in opposition to the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers misplaced that recreation outright. Nevertheless, whereas the Buccaneers have been 8.5-point favorites, the Texans are laying 14.5, making it a lot much less probably that fading them pays off.
Outdoors of the Texans, the one different double-digit favorites are the Buffalo Bills. If accessible, the Payments are the popular choice as large favorites at low choice. If not, there’s a vital drop-off in win chance to the next-best groups the place it is onerous to keep away from taking Houston. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Saints are the very best of the remainder, however all carry extra threat.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
The Payments are the second-biggest favorites based on the betting market, Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. Their choice might be depressed, as solely 13% of customers nonetheless have them accessible. They host the Jets in Week 18, so there’s motive to avoid wasting them, however there needs to be different robust choices then. The Browns price out because the worst group within the NFL based on ESPN Analytics, and they’re coming off their worst offensive recreation of the season by EPA per play.
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Mike Clay likelihood to win: 78% (second)
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ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 80% (second)
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DraftKings Sportsbook line: Payments -10 (-575 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem Week 16 Choice: 7% (fourth)
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Eliminator Problem availability: 13%
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Remaining schedule: PHI, NYJ
That is probably the most lopsided matchup within the last three weeks based on Mike Clay’s mannequin. It is nearly unattainable to make a case for the way the Raiders can transfer the ball in opposition to the Texans’ second-ranked protection. The Raiders have misplaced 11 of their final 12 video games, whereas the Texans have received six straight. Every of the picks after the Texans are giving up vital win chance, so it’s onerous to rank them any decrease.
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Mike Clay likelihood to win: 93% (first)
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ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 80% (first)
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DraftKings Sportsbook line: Texans -14.5 (-1650 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem Week 16 Choice: 51% (first)
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Eliminator Problem availability: 58%
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Remaining schedule: at LAC, IND
Whereas the Lions and Steelers have the identical data, ESPN Analytics views the Lions because the second-best group within the NFL, whereas the Steelers are 18th. The betting market agrees with the hole, because the Lions are the third-biggest favorites this week. The Lions have received 15 straight video games after a loss. They’re additionally solely 9% accessible and end the season with two street video games, so they may have low choice and no future worth.
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Mike Clay likelihood to win: 69% (fifth)
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ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 66% (fifth)
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DraftKings Sportsbook line: Lions -7 (-325 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem Week 16 Choice: 1% (eighth)
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Eliminator Problem availability: 9%
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Remaining schedule: at MIN, at CHI
The Commanders have been an amazing group to fade all season. Whereas they beat the New York Giants final week, they misplaced eight video games in a row previous to that. Throughout that nine-game stretch, they rank final within the NFL in defensive EPA per play. The Eagles have been up and down all season, however in opposition to a nasty Commanders group, they grade out as one of many greatest favorites of the week, even on the street. Simply be sure that to sit up for Week 18 the place the Eagles will host the Commanders of their second assembly in three weeks.
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Mike Clay likelihood to win: 70% (fourth)
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ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 68% (fourth)
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DraftKings Sportsbook line: Eagles -6.5 (-310 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem Week 16 Choice: 17% (second)
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Eliminator Problem availability: 41%
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Remaining schedule: at BUF, WSH
Imagine it or not, the Saints are the thirrd-biggest favorites this week based on Mike Clay’s mannequin. During the last three weeks, the Jets rank backside three in each offensive and defensive EPA per play, whereas the Saints are twenty second on offense and tenth on protection. The Saints are 3-3 since turning to Tyler Shough with back-to-back wins. ESPN Analytics has a 3.3-point hole between these groups on a impartial subject, and with the Saints having home-field, they’re a positive group to pick.
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Mike Clay likelihood to win: 74% (third)
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ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 64% (sixth)
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DraftKings Sportsbook line: Saints -4.5 (-218 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem Week 16 Choice: 3% (seventh)
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Eliminator Problem availability: 99%
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Remaining schedule: at TEN, at ATL
Final week, the Chiefs opened as 11.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. Now the unfold sits at 3.5 after Patrick Mahomes‘ damage and the Chiefs elimination from playoff competition. Nevertheless, ESPN Analytics sees worth within the Chiefs, rating them because the third-biggest favorites this week. The Titans are the second-worst group within the NFL by ESPN Analytics and are the one group this season with out a residence win.
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Mike Clay likelihood to win: 67% (sixth)
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ESPN Analytics likelihood to win: 69% (third)
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DraftKings Sportsbook line: Chiefs -3.5 (-198 moneyline)
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Eliminator Problem Week 16 Choice: 6% (fifth)
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Eliminator Problem availability: 31%
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Remaining schedule: DEN, at LV
