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Mike Clay
Welcome to the Fantasy Soccer Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and, after all, simply digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to enable you to with all types of decision-making, together with sit/begin selections, last-minute waiver provides and lineup selections.
Moreover, we now have folded the Shadow Report, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns under. Utilizing our play-by-play knowledge, we’re in a position to determine defensive schemes and the place every extensive receiver and cornerback strains up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we will provide one of the best projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire strategies every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively commonplace scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Okay, 1 D/ST), though I am going to usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for not less than 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s word: Projections and rankings will align virtually completely, however typically when a projection is shut, a participant is likely to be ranked barely greater or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or threat. This column is topic to updates through the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will at all times be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI
Projected rating: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
Shadow Report: Count on A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s prime nook shadowed most weeks final season, together with a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a robust 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets within the sport. Evans was out for the Week 8 assembly between the groups, however Terrell additionally shadowed him in Week 5 again in 2022 (the place Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), in addition to in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.
Some fast math exhibits that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG within the 4 conferences with Terrell, having reached 20 factors twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan each out, Evans can be Mayfield’s prime goal and Terrell hasn’t been a lot of a detriment to his success. Evans needs to be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie operating mate Egbuka must also be in lineups.
Over/beneath: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win likelihood: Buccaneers 64% (seventh highest)
Projected rating: Bengals 27, Browns 20
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku
Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has but to signal with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford performed six full video games because the crew’s lead again final season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy factors. He was additionally the crew’s lead again for many of 2023 and completed sixteenth in RB fantasy factors (twenty fifth in PPG) whereas piling up 1,132 yards and 9 TDs. It is but to be seen how a lot Sampson will contribute, however Ford is protected to view as a RB2/flex possibility this week in opposition to a suspect Bengals protection.
Over/beneath: 47 (sixth highest)
Win likelihood: Bengals 73% (third highest)
Projected rating: Colts 23, Dolphins 22
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Shadow Report: Free company and accidents have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, just lately signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. because the possible Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a quick begin with Daniel Jones beneath middle. Improve the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight finish Tyler Warren additionally makes for a tremendous beginning possibility in his NFL debut.
Over/beneath: 44.8 (ninth highest)
Win likelihood: Colts 55% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Patriots 25, Raiders 19
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit dangerous as he makes his New England debut whereas getting back from final season’s torn ACL. The excellent news is that he has an interesting Week 1 matchup at house in opposition to a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes can be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow beginning WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte may be upgraded.
Over/beneath: 44.2 (eleventh highest)
Win likelihood: Patriots 69% (4th highest)
Projected rating: Cardinals 24, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first take a look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round choose — appeared in seven video games as a rookie and didn’t present notably effectively. He accomplished 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per try and managed 4 TDs and 5 INTs. Particularly in opposition to an improved Arizona protection, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ go catchers very dangerous fantasy performs. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on 5 profession targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are not any higher than flex choices in deeper leagues.
Over/beneath: 42.1 (fifteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Cardinals 68% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: Steelers 20, Jets 18
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy scoop: The bottom projected sport complete of the week options two good (maybe nice) defenses and never many palatable fantasy starters. That features the operating backs on each groups. You would be onerous pressed to bench Corridor after choosing him within the fourth-ish spherical (which is why he is listed as a lineup lock regardless of the robust matchup), however a Week 1 dud should not be a shock — particularly with Braelon Allen anticipated to be concerned. Jaylen Warren will work because the lead again in Pittsburgh, however he is by no means beforehand operated as a function again and figures to defer some work to Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson. Warren is greatest valued as a flex.
Over/beneath: 38 (Lowest)
Win likelihood: Steelers 60% (tenth highest)
Projected rating: Commanders 26, Giants 20
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: When you drafted effectively, you should not have to depend on any of the operating backs on this sport … and that is an excellent factor. Tracy is one of the best and most secure possibility of the bunch, however he did not sport a lot upside final season and it is but to be seen how a lot work he’ll defer to fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo. Washington traded away Brian Robinson Jr. final month and we might be taking a look at a three-headed committee with Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. Ekeler’s receiving chops make him the most secure possibility of the three, whereas Croskey-Merritt is most the explosive and Rodriguez one of the best guess to steal a landing.
Shadow Report: Marshon Lattimore may journey with Nabers within the opener. The 2 did not meet final season, however Lattimore has a historical past of shadowing prime receivers and did so in opposition to each A.J. Brown and Mike Evans after becoming a member of Washington late final season. Regardless of Lattimore’s spectacular profession résumé, he hasn’t been fairly as efficient (or constantly wholesome) lately and his presence is not sufficient to have an effect on Nabers’ fantasy enchantment.
Over/beneath: 46.2 (seventh highest)
Win likelihood: Commanders 68% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Jaguars 24, Panthers 21
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter
Fantasy scoop: Selecting between the Jaguars’ operating backs on your Week 1 RB2/flex slot? Good luck. The Jacksonville backfield is likely one of the most unsure conditions within the sport, with veterans Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby battling with rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. for work. The most probably Week 1 state of affairs is that Bigsby will tempo the unit in carries and objective line work, with Etienne a hair behind in carries and probably the most concerned again in passing conditions. Tuten may not see a lot work in his professional debut, however it may not take him lengthy to emerge if both or each of the veterans battle. That is an interesting matchup, so if you happen to’re actually digging deep, Etienne can be the best choice from this quartet.
Over/beneath: 45 (eighth highest)
Win likelihood: Jaguars 60% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: Broncos 25, Titans 18
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Tony Pollard, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
Shadow Report: A sluggish begin to the season might be to ensure that each No. 1 receivers, as shadow protection from L’Jarius Sneed (on Sutton) and Pat Surtain II (on Ridley) is possible. Sneed missed most of 2024 on account of harm, however he shadowed usually previous to getting harm, together with matchups with Garrett Wilson and Tyreek Hill. Sneed was elite as a full-time shadow nook with the Chiefs in 2023 (together with holding Sutton to a single catch on 18 routes in two conferences). Maybe the league’s prime nook, Surtain shadowed in eight video games final season and held six of these opposing receivers to single-digit fantasy factors. Each Sutton and Ridley can stay in lineups, however there’s added “bust threat” on this matchup.
Over/beneath: 43 (14th highest)
Win likelihood: Broncos 75% (Highest)
Projected rating: Seahawks 23, 49ers 22
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: The 49ers’ WR room is in a state of chaos, with Brandon Aiyuk (PUP), Demarcus Robinson (suspension) and Jacob Cowing (IR) all out, and Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins each unsure for the opener. Assuming Jennings is ready to play, he and Ricky Pearsall needs to be closely utilized, and each make for viable WR3/flex choices. Jennings carries some threat after lacking substantial offseason work, however final season’s 25% goal share suggests he’ll stay a giant a part of the offense. Pearsall got here on robust on the finish of 2024 and has operated because the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver all through the offseason. The 2024 first-round choose is well-positioned for a breakout marketing campaign.
Over/beneath: 44.8 (tenth highest)
Win likelihood: Seahawks 56% (thirteenth highest)
Projected rating: Lions 26, Packers 23
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: With Christian Watson (PUP) sidelined and Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams all battling accidents of their very own, the Packers’ WR room is a little bit of a thriller right here in Week 1. One factor we must always be capable of rely on, nonetheless, is a giant position for rookie Matthew Golden. The speedy first-round choose is anticipated to right away slide in as Jordan Love‘s prime perimeter goal, with Romeo Doubs on the other boundary and, if wholesome, Reed within the slot. Dealing with off with Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed will not be a straightforward process, however Inexperienced Bay figures to be throwing the ball loads in what needs to be a aggressive sport in opposition to Detroit. Golden is your greatest fantasy possibility from this Inexperienced Bay WR room and may be valued as a WR3/flex.
Over/beneath: 49 (fifth highest)
Win likelihood: Lions 59% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Rams 23, Texans 21
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Joe Mixon (PUP, foot) is out for not less than the primary 4 video games of the season, which opens the door for some mixture of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale and rookie Woody Marks to deal with Houston’s backfield workload. Chubb is the most secure guess to deal with the majority of the carries in opposition to the Rams, however will not get a lot work as a receiver. It is unclear if the 29-year-old may be efficient after struggling on 107 touches in Cleveland final season. You possibly can possible do higher in your flex slot. Pierce and pass-catching specialist Marks are intriguing wild playing cards and, whereas neither needs to be in fantasy lineups this week, they make for discover end-of-bench stashes.
Over/beneath: 44 (thirteenth highest)
Win likelihood: Rams 58% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Ravens 28, Payments 27
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Fantasy scoop: This sport is pretty simple from a fantasy standpoint, leaving Buffalo’s extensive receivers as the one conundrum when evaluating your WR3/flex choices. Khalil Shakir is the most secure of the bunch, however he lacks upside, primarily on account of a really restricted position close to the objective line (solely seven profession TDs and 5 profession finish zone targets). Coleman had an uneven rookie season, however the 2024 second-round choose is a breakout candidate and will shortly emerge as Allen’s prime goal. Each receivers are within the flex dialogue, however can have their arms full in opposition to a terrific Baltimore protection that features cornerbacks Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey and, if he is in a position to play, Jaire Alexander.
Over/beneath: 54.5 (Highest)
Win likelihood: Ravens 53% (fifteenth highest)
Projected rating: Bears 22, Vikings 22
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson
Shadow Report: Jaylon Johnson is a robust guess to shadow Jefferson this week. When these groups met in Week 12 final season, Johnson shadowed Jefferson on 19 of his 37 routes, together with 17 of 23 on the perimeter and two of 14 within the slot. Jefferson was held in examine, posting a 2-27-0 receiving line on 5 targets. Johnson shadowed solely a part of the time within the Week 15 showdown and Jefferson was higher (7-73-1 on 13 targets), although most of that sport was spent away from Johnson’s protection. Johnson is an efficient nook, so maybe the “bust” potential is greater than normal for Jefferson, however you are clearly beginning one of the best participant in your fantasy crew.
Fantasy scoop: Talking of Minnesota receivers, Jordan Addison is suspended for 3 video games to open the 2025 season, which positions veteran Adam Thielen for a large position in his return to the crew. Jalen Nailor and rookie Tai Felton very effectively might consider, however Thielen confirmed he nonetheless had life late final season when he averaged 7.7 targets per sport whereas posting 15-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his ultimate six outings with Carolina. We do not need to get too carried away right here, as Thielen can be no greater than third in line for targets (behind Jefferson and Hockenson) and is dealing with an excellent Chicago protection. Nonetheless, if you happen to’re eyeing a WR3/flex lottery ticket, Thielen is a viable possibility.
Over/beneath: 44.1 (twelfth highest)
Win likelihood: Bears 51% (Lowest)
