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Gaza ceasefire: What can we expect?

content@helloomylife.com by content@helloomylife.com
January 14, 2025
in MENA
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Reuters Displaced Palestinians walk along road in Gaza (file photo)
Reuters

Nearly all Gaza’s inhabitants has been displaced by the battle

Israel and Hamas are regarded as near agreeing a deal which might halt the battle in Gaza and see the discharge of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It could be probably the most dramatic breakthrough in 15 months of battle, which started when the armed Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

What may very well be in a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas?

It’s hoped {that a} ceasefire deal will imply an settlement to cease the battle which has been raging in Gaza.

Additionally it is anticipated to see an alternate of hostages and prisoners.

Hamas seized 251 hostages when it attacked Israel in October 2023. It’s nonetheless holding 94 captive, though Israel believes that solely 60 are nonetheless alive.

Israel is predicted to launch about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some jailed for years, in return for the hostages.

How would the ceasefire work?

This ceasefire is predicted to occur in three phases, as soon as a deal is introduced.

Particulars are nonetheless being ironed out. Till an settlement is finalised, it’s topic to vary.

First stage

A Palestinian official instructed the BBC that within the first stage, 34 hostages – anticipated to be civilians – can be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages can be launched right away, with the remainder of the alternate going down over six weeks.

Throughout this stage, Israeli troops would additionally start pulling out of populated areas in Gaza.

The Palestinian official mentioned detailed negotiations for the second and third phases would start on the sixteenth day of the ceasefire.

Second stage

Within the second stage, the remaining hostages – troopers and reservists – can be launched, in return for various Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel is believed to have agreed to launch, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or extra. An Israeli official instructed the BBC that these convicted of homicide wouldn’t be launched into the occupied West Financial institution.

Throughout this stage, Israel would additionally enable displaced folks now within the south of Gaza to return to the north.

Nearly all of Gaza’s 2.3m inhabitants have needed to go away their houses due to the combating.

Third stage

The third and closing stage would contain the reconstruction of Gaza – one thing which might take years.

The Israeli official mentioned Israeli forces would stay in a buffer, or safety, zone inside Gaza throughout any ceasefire.

Reuters Israeli woman holds poster of Israeli hostages while looking through fence towards Gaza (file photo)Reuters

Hamas continues to be holding dozens of hostages, seized in its assault on Israel in October 2023

What are the unanswered questions concerning the deal?

Getting up to now has taken months of painstaking oblique negotiations, not least as a result of Israel and Hamas utterly mistrust one another.

Hamas needed a whole finish to the battle earlier than it will launch the hostages, one thing which was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will in impact pause the battle whereas its phrases are carried out.

Nonetheless, it’s unclear whether or not it should imply the battle is over for good.

One among Israel’s key battle goals has been to destroy Hamas’s army and governing capabilities. Though Israel has severely broken it, Hamas nonetheless has some capability to function and regroup.

Additionally it is unclear which hostages are alive or lifeless or whether or not Hamas is aware of the whereabouts of all those that stay unaccounted for.

For its half, Hamas has demanded the discharge of some prisoners which Israel says it is not going to free. That is believed to incorporate those that have been concerned within the 7 October assaults.

Additionally it is not recognized whether or not Israel will agree to drag out of the buffer zone by a sure date, or whether or not its presence there will probably be open-ended.

Any ceasefire is more likely to be fragile.

Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas which have halted earlier wars have been shaken by skirmishes and finally damaged down.

The timetable and complexity of this ceasefire means even a small incident might flip into a serious risk.

What occurred on 7 October 2023 and what has occurred in Gaza?

A whole lot of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented assault on southern Israel, bursting by way of the border fence and concentrating on communities, police stations and armed forces bases.

About 1,200 folks have been killed and greater than 250 hostages have been taken again to Gaza. Hamas additionally fired 1000’s of rockets into Israel.

Israel responded with a large army marketing campaign, first by air after which a floor invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets throughout Gaza by land, sea and air, whereas Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

Israel’s offensive has devastated Gaza and led to extreme meals shortages, with support struggling to succeed in these most in want. Greater than 46,600 folks – the vast majority of them civilians – have been killed by Israel’s assaults, in line with Gaza’s Hamas-run well being ministry.



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