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Michael Voepel, ESPN Senior Author
The 2024 WNBA playoffs tip off Sept. 22. If the common season ended as we speak, what would it not take for every of the eight groups at present in playoff place to win the league title?
The primary-place New York Liberty, who’ve gained seven in a row and are the one group to this point to clinch a playoff spot, simply must hold being who they’ve been: the league’s finest group this season.
“I feel what I need to see from our group is simply the best way we proceed to get higher,” New York’s Breanna Stewart stated after the Liberty’s 94-74 victory over the Dallas Wings on Tuesday. “Everyone retains saying, ‘Oh, you guys clinched the playoffs. Why are you continue to taking part in arduous?’ We need to hold that 1 spot, we would like home-court benefit. And also you noticed it as we speak, with two quarters we saved Dallas beneath 20.
“I really feel like we’ve not accomplished something but. Our document is nice, after all, however there’s a lot we have to get higher at, and we do not need to peak too quickly.”
The Las Vegas Aces are in fourth place within the standings, however as two-time defending champions, they’re perceived as subsequent in line on the checklist of favorites to win the 2024 title.
Because the WNBA launched in 1997, the league hasn’t been identified for a lot of main upsets within the playoffs or sudden groups profitable the title. Nevertheless it has occurred. As lately as 2021, the No. 6 seed Chicago Sky, who had a .500 regular-season document that yr, gained the championship over the No. 5 seed Phoenix Mercury.
However because the league moved in 2016 to a playoff format that seeds the highest eight groups general — fairly than the sphere being cut up between the Japanese and Western conferences with the highest 4 groups from every — each title besides 2021 has been gained by a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Nonetheless, moving into the playoffs at the least means a group has an opportunity to win all of it. Here is a take a look at how the present high eight groups measure up as title contenders, listed so as of what we predict their odds of taking the championship are.
1. New York Liberty (24-4)
Present place in standings: 1
Earlier titles: None
New York has performed for the title 5 occasions, together with final season’s 3-1 WNBA Finals loss to Las Vegas. The Liberty reached the Commissioner’s Cup ultimate in June, falling to Minnesota after having gained the title final yr. Total, New York has been very spectacular in 2024, getting high-level performances from guard Sabrina Ionescu and forwards Stewart and Jonquel Jones. The Liberty and coach Sandy Brondello even have a superb sense of what they want and may get persistently from their bench. That confirmed once more Tuesday, as Ionescu was out with neck soreness and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton has not but returned from knee surgical procedure. However the expertise of taking part in collectively yet one more season has constructed the Liberty’s confidence, too.
The Liberty have had their disappointments as a franchise, however staying targeted on the current and the chance they’ve is the important thing. This group may be very able to doing that. New York followers have waited a very long time, however this might be the payoff.
2. Las Vegas Aces (17-9)
Present place in standings: 4
Earlier titles: 2022, 2023
The best way issues stand now, the Aces and Liberty — who completed 1 and a pair of final season within the standings — might meet within the semifinals, which might be a blockbuster. Las Vegas misplaced simply six regular-season video games final season, so this yr’s group has struggled extra. Level guard Chelsea Gray‘s absence from the lineup till July 2 as a consequence of damage had a huge impact on why Las Vegas did not play in addition to anticipated earlier within the season.
However with Grey again, A’ja Wilson within the midst of a near-certain MVP season and Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum additionally among the many league’s elite, the Aces are nonetheless a formidable power. Veteran Tiffany Hayes coming back from retirement to hitch the Aces helps, too, as does Las Vegas’ championship expertise beneath coach Becky Hammon. And perhaps it is going to profit the Aces to not be thought-about the clear favourite this yr.
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Present place in standings: 3
Earlier titles: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017
The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive score and gained the Commissioner’s Cup ultimate over New York in June. Napheesa Collier is likely one of the league’s high gamers, averaging a double-double. Fellow ahead Alanna Smith has constructed on her breakthrough season final yr in Chicago, and guard Courtney Williams, who additionally was beforehand with the Sky, has been a superb slot in Minnesota, too. Guard Kayla McBride is having one in every of her finest seasons in her eleventh yr within the league.
The Lynx simply traded for ahead Myisha Hines-Allen, who gained a title with Washington in 2019. She’s a dependable publish presence who ought to mesh effectively with what the Lynx do. Minnesota gained all 4 of its titles beneath present coach Cheryl Reeve, so she is aware of the steps to get there.
Present place in standings: 2
Earlier titles: none
The Solar’s core trio of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones has been bolstered by career-best seasons from guards DiJonai Carrington and Tyasha Harris. The Solar, who began the season 9-0, traded for guard Marina Mabrey on July 17 so as to add extra scoring spark, and he or she has performed effectively for Connecticut to this point.
The Solar proceed to be one of many league’s most reliably robust defensive groups. Can they hold that up and increase the offense slightly extra? And is there one thing this group can do some higher than previous Solar groups which have come near profitable championships however by no means been capable of break by means of? The Solar have by no means fairly gotten that one additional “break” going their method that may have tipped the scales of their favor in previous WNBA Finals appearances. However led by savvy vets Thomas and Bonner, they’ll battle to the buzzer with anyone.
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5. Phoenix Mercury (15-13)
Present place in standings: 6
Earlier titles: 2007, 2009, 2014
The Mercury realistically have not accomplished so much to deserve the advantage of the doubt to this point this season, and we checklist them right here forward of Indiana despite the fact that the Fever swept Phoenix 3-0. What offers? This might be Diana Taurasi’s final season, which may be a motivating issue for her and the group.
There’s additionally previous WNBA championship expertise with gamers reminiscent of Taurasi, middle Brittney Griner, guard/ahead Kahleah Copper (with Chicago) and guard Natasha Cloud (with Washington). The group lately added ahead Monique Billings on a seven-day contract; if she stays on the roster she is going to fill a necessity inside. Lastly, there is a feeling that the Mercury have not performed their finest, so perhaps it is nonetheless coming.
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Present place in standings: 5
Earlier titles: 2004, 2010, 2018, 2020
The Storm added veterans reminiscent of ahead Nneka Ogwumike and guard Skylar Diggins-Smith within the offseason. In addition they simply introduced aboard ahead Gabby Williams. She performed for the Storm the previous two seasons and now rejoins the WNBA after spending time getting ready with the French nationwide group that gained Olympic silver. Heart Ezi Magbegor, who gained bronze with Australia within the Olympics, has turn out to be an elite rim protector. And naturally, the Storm have star guard Jewell Loyd, a part of the USA’ gold medal group.
Can Seattle put the items collectively effectively sufficient to get a title within the post-Sue Hen period? The Storm are center of the pack in offensive score, so that they would wish to enhance there. Williams could make a reasonably good protection even higher.
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Present place in standings: 7
Earlier titles: 2012
Everyone seems to be conscious by now of some of the oft-repeated details this season: The Fever have not made the playoffs since 2016. That is their said purpose for 2024. It appeared bold throughout a tough first month. However look what has occurred after that: Since June 13, the Fever are 10-5. The run consists of three victories over Phoenix, plus wins over New York, Minnesota and Seattle. Indiana’s document in that stretch is best than the Mercury’s (9-7) and the Storm’s (9-6).
However we hold the Fever seventh on this checklist for now as a result of it is an unlimited soar to go from a seven-season playoff drought to a title, led by stars who’re solely of their first (Caitlin Clark) and second (Aliyah Boston) WNBA seasons. However there’s beginning to be actual playoff fever for the Fever, and that is step one.
8. Chicago Sky (11-16)
Present place in standings: 8
Earlier titles: 2021
After the primary week again from the Olympics, the Sky are doubtless trying extra on the group slightly below them within the standings — the Atlanta Dream — than considering the concept of profitable a title. The Dream may make a playoff surge, attempting to beat both Chicago or Indiana. The thought of the Sky happening a run something like 2021 is far-fetched, as that was a way more skilled group.
Nonetheless, rookie publish gamers Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso every have an NCAA title on their résumés, and the Sky look their finest when these two are having good video games on the identical time. Reese is already one of many WNBA’s high rebounders. Guard Chennedy Carter has led the Sky in scoring in her return to the WNBA. However Chicago as a group is within the backside three within the league in scoring, which makes it difficult to assume the Sky might win three consecutive playoff collection to take the championship.
