Men’s Final Four preview: How Auburn-Florida, Duke-Houston can win in San Antonio

Jeff Borzello
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Jeff Borzello

ESPN Workers Author
- Basketball recruiting insider.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Graduate of College of Delaware.
Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf

ESPN Workers Author
- Covers school basketball
- Joined ESPN.com in 2011
- Graduate of Minnesota State College, Mankato

Apr 3, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

A showdown of the highest two groups from the very best convention in males’s school basketball. And a battle between the nation’s finest protection and a traditionally environment friendly offense.

There is a purpose it is all chalk on the San Antonio River Stroll for the March Insanity finale — and our specialists are right here to interrupt down how every staff can win its Closing 4 matchup.

Learn their evaluation for Florida vs. Auburn and Duke vs. Houston, together with deadly flaws and gamers every semifinalist might want to step up within the remaining levels of the 2025 NCAA event.

Leap to:
Auburn-Florida | Houston-Duke

Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET, CBS

How Florida reached the Closing 4:

What we have discovered about Florida in March: Florida’s run over the second half tells the story of this staff’s season. Since Feb. 1, the Gators have misplaced solely as soon as: 88-83 at Georgia on Feb. 25. They’ve encountered extra bother than anticipated in current weeks, however we have discovered you’ll be able to by no means assume they’re out of a sport earlier than it is over.

Down late towards back-to-back nationwide champion UConn? They figured it out towards the Huskies. Alex Condon sustaining an ankle harm towards Maryland within the Candy 16? They held on till the 6-foot-11 standout returned to shut out the double-digit victory. And all of us watched the livid comeback from a 10-point deficit within the remaining minutes towards Texas Tech within the Elite Eight. The Gators have 5 wins towards top-20 KenPom groups by 14 or extra factors in March and refuse to stop towards excessive adversity. What we have discovered about them in March? They’re extremely troublesome to beat.

The participant who must step up: Alex Condon.

After his shaky defensive effort towards Texas Tech star Darrion Williams, Condon must be a greater defensive participant in house towards Auburn. The Tigers are stacked with versatile skills at 6-7 or taller who’re snug on the perimeter and within the publish. Like Texas Tech, they may strive to attract Condon outdoors then try to assault him off the dribble to get to the rim and rating. Williams was glorious at any time when Condon ended up in these eventualities, and Florida has a fleet of offensive choices. The Gators do not want each participant on their roster to attain 15 factors, however they may want 6-11 Condon to play glorious protection to advance to the title sport.

Potential deadly flaw: A power may be Florida’s potential flaw: its consolation stage in adversity.

The Gators typically execute when down — they overcame a four-minute scoring drought within the second half of their second-round win over UConn and a 10-point deficit within the remaining six minutes towards Texas Tech within the Elite Eight — however these eventualities are dicier within the Closing 4. They know they’ll catch any opponent, which is riskier at this stage than in December towards North Carolina (allowed the Tar Heels to take the lead after being up 17 factors) or in January towards South Carolina (overcame a 14-point second-half deficit to win by one level).

Does Florida have a solution to Johni Broome? I do not suppose any staff in America has a solution for Broome — a prime contender for each nationwide participant of the yr award — however Florida is provided to be assertive towards him, which is the very best opponents can do towards a participant of his caliber. The Gators have a number of gamers they’ll ship to aggressively defend 6-10 Broome with out concern that one participant’s foul bother will smash their shot at victory: Condon (6-11), Thomas Haugh (6-9), Rueben Chinyelu (6-10) and Micah Handlogten (7-1) are all choices. Even when Auburn forces Florida to change quite a lot of matchups and a Gators guard finally ends up on Broome, it will not be a horrible mismatch.

Florida will win if: The Gators play the way in which they’ve for the previous month.

They’ve made 58% of their photographs contained in the arc and 38% of their 3-point makes an attempt since March. They’ve additionally had the very best offense in America over that stretch. They know the best way to pummel opponents and may do it from each spot on the ground. And so they have a novel mixture of expertise and expertise.

Walter Clayton Jr. is an AP first-team All-American. Alijah Martin is taking part in his second Closing 4 in three years. Will Richard is one in all six upperclassmen on the staff. Plus, they’ve size that few groups can match and are tenth in adjusted defensive effectivity. — Myron Medcalf

How Auburn reached the Closing 4:

What we have discovered about Auburn in March: A 1-3 stretch coming into the NCAA event known as Auburn’s ceiling into query, however these three losses got here towards Tennessee, Alabama and Texas A&M — and we’ve since discovered that that is nonetheless the identical staff that misplaced one sport between Dec. 4 and March 4 behind the management of Johni Broome.

Sure, Alabama State had a quick lead over the Tigers within the first spherical, however the Tigers finally gained by 20. They went on to beat a great Creighton staff by 12 within the second spherical and maintain Michigan standout Danny Wolf scoreless for the ultimate 13 minutes of their Candy 16 win. Then they overcame Broome’s midgame harm at hand Michigan State its first NCAA event loss to an SEC staff below Tom Izzo.

The participant who must step up: Chad Baker-Mazara.

The 6-7 standout has battled via hip and shoulder accidents in current weeks, however the Tigers will want the very best model of the All-SEC third-team choice to supply within the remaining stage of the season. He is a necessary participant on each ends of the ground for the Tigers, who’ve gained with star energy (see: Broome) and depth. Baker-Mazara has registered double figures simply as soon as since March 4 and would not appear like he is 100%, however Auburn will want every thing he may give to avenge the February loss to one of many hottest groups within the nation.

Potential deadly flaw: Pictures from 3 haven’t been falling.

The Tigers have one in all America’s finest gamers in Broome to go together with standouts resembling Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones. They’re proficient at each place on the ground, which has been adequate all season, however they’ve gone chilly from past the arc. They’ve made simply 31% of their 3-point makes an attempt in 4 NCAA event video games, which hasn’t price them so far, however now they may face a Florida staff that went 13-for-33 (39.4%) from 3 towards them in February, when the Tigers had been simply 7-for-22 (31.8%). One other chilly night time may result in Auburn’s elimination.

How can Auburn restrict Florida from happening runs? Florida’s first-round sport towards Norfolk State showcased the extremes of its offense, America’s finest since March 1, which scored 53 factors within the remaining 16:45 of regulation. (Had that been a 48-minute NBA sport, Florida would have been on tempo to attain 151 factors.) Auburn witnessed that burst potential firsthand in its 90-81 loss to Florida in February — the Tigers had a nine-point lead within the first half earlier than the Gators ended it on a 37-18 run within the remaining 12 minutes to hold a 10-point lead into the locker room. Auburn should first concentrate on Walter Clayton Jr., typically the catalyst of these runs, and never enable him to hit the massive photographs that shift the momentum. The Tigers additionally cannot be afraid to sluggish the sport down or name an early timeout to restrict the Gators’ alternatives to get their offense rolling.

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0:54

How Bruce Pearl is motivating Auburn forward of Closing 4

Bruce Pearl breaks down his mindset going into the Closing 4 and previews Auburn’s matchup towards Florida.

Auburn will win if: The Tigers restrict Clayton’s influence on the result.

Auburn has a number of defenders it may use to corral the Florida star — and can want all of them Saturday. The NCAA event has been a showcase for the All-America guard, however the Gators are a considerably completely different staff when he has a tricky night time. If the Tigers could make it troublesome for him, they may have an opportunity towards a staff that scored 90 factors towards them in February.

Coach Bruce Pearl wants a sport plan that does not enable Clayton to do no matter he desires on the courtroom. — Myron Medcalf

Florida vs. Auburn predictions

Jeff Borzello: Florida wins, 82-79
Myron Medcalf: Florida wins, 88-84
Joe Lunardi: Florida wins, 85-80
Neil Paine: Auburn wins, 80-78

Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET, CBS

How Duke reached the Closing 4:

What we have discovered about Duke in March: There wasn’t a lot we did not find out about Duke going into the NCAA event, however the Blue Devils have lived as much as each expectation we had of them on Choice Sunday.

Should you had been involved they inflated their numbers resulting from mediocre ACC competitors, they’ve answered each query. They put forth staggeringly environment friendly offensive performances within the second spherical towards Baylor and within the Candy 16 towards Arizona, then held Alabama — the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense — to 65 factors and under 0.90 factors per possession within the Elite Eight. That was solely the second time in two seasons the Crimson Tide failed to succeed in that per-possession threshold.

One factor we did study was that the second hasn’t been too massive for Kon Knueppel, who averaged 20.5 factors and 4.0 assists with terrific performances within the Candy 16 and Elite Eight.

The participant who must step up: Tyrese Proctor.

It must be a giant night time for Proctor. One would surmise Houston’s protection will concentrate on limiting Cooper Flagg and Knueppel, which may give Proctor some shotmaking alternatives. He has been in terrific type over the previous few weeks, making 20 3s in a three-game stretch towards Louisville, Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor. Then after an off night time towards Arizona, he went for 17 factors on 10 photographs towards Alabama. He shoots higher than 41% from 3-point vary and has been enjoying with confidence. His perimeter taking pictures might be wanted to loosen up the Houston protection.

Potential deadly flaw: Relative youth.

From a personnel perspective, there’s not a lot. Duke has measurement, taking pictures, ball handlers, shot creators and shotmakers. From a steadiness perspective, there’s nonetheless not a lot. The Blue Devils are elite at each ends of the ground, possessing probably the most environment friendly offense within the historical past of the KenPom database and a top-five protection to go together with it.

If there’s something, it could be whether or not a staff that begins three freshmen can win a nationwide championship in such a transfer-heavy panorama, the place groups are routinely averaging beginning lineups with gamers who’re 22 or 23 years previous. The Blue Devils have appeared unfazed by something thrown at them up to now this season, although. Flagg and Knueppel play with such poise and confidence, and, as one ACC coach identified to me earlier than the event, Khaman Maluach would not do far more than dunk, rebound and block photographs (all at an elite stage, after all) — can a second actually be too massive for him?

What shall be key for Duke’s offense if Houston can restrict the Blue Devils’ dribble penetration? Houston has the nation’s finest protection, and the Cougars excel at stopping opponents from attacking the rim off the bounce. Duke, in the meantime, has 4 gamers on the ground always who can put stress on the protection, forcing them into rotations and to break down within the paint — earlier than both ending on the rim, kicking it out to a shooter or throwing a lob to Maluach.

Can the Blue Devils proceed to do this towards Houston’s protection? It is a legitimate query.

One space the place Houston’s protection is probably susceptible, nevertheless, is behind the arc: The Cougars enable groups to shoot 3s, rating twelfth within the Massive 12 in 3-point try price defensively. And the Blue Devils are able to benefiting from that. They took almost 45% of their subject aim makes an attempt from 3-point vary in ACC play and made almost 40% of these makes an attempt.

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1:57

Bilas explains how Duke shut down Alabama’s offense

Jay Bilas and Jay Williams break down Duke’s emphatic win over Alabama within the Elite Eight.

Duke will win if: The Blue Devils keep the course.

In the event that they play their finest sport (and even 90%), there’s not a staff within the nation that may beat them. In fact, they should proceed to do what bought them thus far. It is going to be arduous to beat Houston persistently with dribble penetration, however they need to make photographs from the perimeter. Maluach is such a presence inside, however their rim safety takes successful when he is on the bench, so that they might want to keep out of foul bother. And towards Houston’s elite offensive rebounding, in addition they have to crash the defensive glass, particularly after exhibiting some potential vulnerabilities towards Baylor and Arizona.

Duke, with its mixture of measurement, taking pictures and Flagg, ought to have all of the solutions, although. — Jeff Borzello

How Houston reached the Closing 4:

What we have discovered about Houston in March: The offensive enchancment is actual.

Prior to now few NCAA tournaments, Houston’s offense had fallen flat in massive moments. In 2022, it got here towards Villanova within the Elite Eight, when the Cougars scored simply 44 factors. In 2023, they struggled in two of three video games. And final season, they scored solely 51 factors in a Candy 16 loss to Duke. That did not occur this yr. Houston scored no less than 1.17 factors per possession in three of 4 video games, nonetheless scoring 1.08 in its worst offensive efficiency of the Dance whereas making a mean of 9 3s per sport.

We have been saying all season that that is the very best offensive staff Kelvin Sampson has had in Houston, and the Cougars are proving us proper up to now.

The participant who must step up: J’Wan Roberts.

Roberts was enjoying like a reliable All-American on the halfway level of the season. Over an eight-game stretch between mid-January and early February, Roberts averaged 16.9 factors and 6.5 rebounds whereas enjoying greater than 35 minutes per sport. He hasn’t been the identical since, averaging 8.8 factors and 5.8 rebounds over the previous 13 video games. (He missed two video games within the Massive 12 event with an ankle harm.) He must be at his finest at each ends of the ground Saturday.

Roberts has additionally picked up 4 fouls in two of his previous three video games, enjoying simply 16 minutes towards Tennessee resulting from foul bother. He has to remain on the ground. It could be an enormous carry for Houston if he may cause Khaman Maluach some points early.

Potential deadly flaw: It is not as straightforward to pinpoint because it was the previous few years.

Houston is likely one of the finest 3-point taking pictures groups within the nation, making almost 40% of its 3-point makes an attempt, after not rating within the prime 110 nationally in that class since 2018. And as we talked about earlier, it is the Cougars’ finest offense (by far) since Sampson took over in 2014.

In the event that they do lose Saturday, although, there are a few issues to observe. First is the foul disparity: Houston ranks No. 322 nationally in free throw makes an attempt per sport whereas rating within the 200s in defensive free throw price. Purdue and Tennessee shot extra free throws than Houston. The second is Houston’s propensity to permit 3-point makes an attempt: The Cougars contest 3s, however they permit groups to shoot them. All 4 opponents within the NCAA event have tried no less than 20 3s. If Duke, probably the greatest 3-point taking pictures groups within the nation, makes an attempt 25 3s, look out.

How can the nation’s finest protection sluggish probably the most environment friendly offense within the KenPom period (i.e., since 1996-97)? Houston goes to have to make use of its physicality and ball stress to take Duke out of its rhythm.

When the Blue Devils are swinging the ball round and attacking the rim off the bounce, kicking it out to their quartet of perimeter shooters, they’re unattainable to cease. However the Cougars are elite at holding groups away from the rim, permitting simply 21.8 factors within the paint per sport whereas additionally rating within the prime 5 nationally in block proportion. Duke additionally hasn’t confronted a staff within the NCAA event that may flip groups over like Houston is able to doing. The Blue Devils had some points with transition protection towards Arizona and Alabama — though that hasn’t been a seasonlong downside — and the Cougars may discover success going that route.

Houston makes offenses uncomfortable like no different staff within the nation can. Issues will not be straightforward for Duke.

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0:35

Houston takes down Tennessee to succeed in seventh Closing 4

Tennessee lets the clock run down as Houston celebrates reaching its seventh Closing 4 in program historical past.

Houston will win if: The Cougars’ physicality and expertise win out.

They’ll look to throw Duke off its sport from the opening tip. They’re bodily defensively, they’re bodily offensively, they stress the ball and so they assault the offensive glass. All the pieces is designed to make opponents uncomfortable. Duke hasn’t seen something prefer it within the NCAA event — or all season. The Blue Devils have been in a position to play with a lot freedom on the offensive finish of their previous few video games; can Houston rattle them early?

There’s additionally the expertise issue: Houston is likely one of the oldest groups within the nation, full of gamers who’ve performed quite a lot of NCAA event video games. L.J. Cryer gained a nationwide championship, and Roberts has been to a Closing 4. Sampson has coached within the semifinals earlier than. May that make a distinction sooner or later Saturday? — Jeff Borzello

Duke vs. Houston predictions

Jeff Borzello: Duke wins, 70-68
Myron Medcalf: Duke wins, 74-70
Joe Lunardi: Houston wins, 75-70
Neil Paine: Duke wins, 65-64

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