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David Schoenfield
A number of Authors
In its simplicity, baseball’s field rating is ideal at measuring the fundamental constructing blocks of the sport: scoring runs whereas making an attempt to keep away from making outs. The numbers not solely consider a participant’s efficiency but additionally provide illumination into the sport. You do not have to be a numbers particular person to get pleasure from baseball — however numbers can be utilized to inform season-defining tales, ones that assist drive our ardour for the sport.
Thus, the beginning of a brand new MLB season begs the query: Who will attain new heights in 2026?
No one anticipated Cal Raleigh to hit 60 residence runs in 2025. No one noticed Tarik Skubal coming two years in the past — not less than, not at this degree of dominance. When a aid pitcher named Garrett Crochet began on Opening Day for the White Sox in 2024, no one envisioned him changing into probably the greatest starters within the recreation. Nick Kurtz went from first-round pick of Wake Forest to celebrity slugger in lower than a 12 months. These are the tales we love — and that we observe via all 162 video games that make up a full MLB season.
What are a number of the fantastical numbers that may drive the tales in 2026? Let’s dig in with a preseason version of Actual or Not.
We begin, as one should in a dialogue about reaching new heights, with the nice Ohtani. His record 50/50 season in 2024 has an argument as the best single-season statistical achievement. To place it in perspective: Of the 53 different instances a participant hit not less than 50 residence runs, the second-highest stolen base complete is simply 24.
How can he prime that? Now that Ohtani’s able to pitch a full season once more, how about successful 20 video games to go along with what can be a 3rd straight 50-homer season. Now that can be the best season ever. Unattainable? Do not inform that to Ohtani — he is determined to have a big year on the mound.
“He looks like he is on a mission, pitching-wise,” Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman mentioned. “Each time we have seen him on a mission, good issues occur.” Catcher Will Smith agrees: “He can go on the market and win a Cy Younger this 12 months. I’ve little question about that.”
There are some apparent roadblocks right here. Ohtani is extra prone to pitch as soon as per week relatively than each fifth or sixth day. With 26 weeks within the season, that is 26 begins — and even that’s assuming the Dodgers do not give him extra day without work sooner or later.
It has been performed, nonetheless: Clayton Kershaw gained 21 video games in 2014 whereas making simply 27 begins. Pedro Martinez gained an unbelievable 22 video games in 29 begins in 1999 (and yet another in aid). So, if Ohtani has a lights-out season and the Dodgers give him run assist, successful 20 is likely to be doable even when he does not make 30-plus begins.
Verdict: Not Actual. The issue with the Kershaw and Martinez examples is that they averaged extra innings pitched per recreation than Ohtani will common, which results in extra choices. The Dodgers are nonetheless going to watch out with him and can need him prepared for October, so 26 begins really feel like absolutely the max he’ll make. Cy Younger? Maybe. Twenty wins? In all probability not.
Aaron Judge: 63 residence runs … and a Triple Crown
Greater than some other all-time nice hitter, Choose has made himself into an excellent hitter versus launching straight into stardom. Sure, he has the dimensions and power, nevertheless it took him an extended apprenticeship via school and the minors earlier than he discovered to translate that uncooked energy into recreation energy for the New York Yankees. He was 25 years previous his rookie season — particularly previous for a participant who would go on to attain his stature as probably the greatest hitters ever. Choose turns 34 in April, so though you would possibly anticipate his decline to start, he is such a scholar of the sport and is aware of his swing and course of so properly that he ought to stay essentially the most dominant hitter in baseball.
That places one other monster season in play. With a fifth 50-homer season, he would surpass Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa as the one hitter with 5 such seasons. With 63 residence runs, Choose would break his personal American League file of 62 set in 2022. He gained his first batting title in 2025, hitting .331. He led the AL in residence runs and RBIs in 2022 and 2024, so a Triple Crown can be in play. There are gamers who will battle him in all three classes: Raleigh gained the house run and RBI titles final 12 months, Bobby Witt Jr. gained the batting crown in 2024 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be prepared for an enormous season. It is powerful to drag off.
Verdict: Not Actual. I might put the chances of Choose successful the Triple Crown greater than Ohtani successful 20 video games, however there is a cause Miguel Cabrera is the one hitter to have pulled it off since 1967. And 63 residence runs? That is 10 greater than Choose hit final 12 months, when he bought off to that ridiculous begin in April and Might. Even when he does not hit 63, I am going to take 50-plus residence runs — and a fourth MVP Award.
Bobby Witt Jr.: 92 extra-base hits
Here is a enjoyable one: Alex Rodriguez holds the file for many extra-base hits by a shortstop, when he had 91 for the Seattle Mariners in 1996 (extremely, his first full season within the majors). However Witt had 88 in 2024 — tied with Jimmy Rollins for second most by a shortstop — when he hit 45 doubles, 11 triples and 32 residence runs. Witt fell off to 76 in 2025, as his batting common dropped from .332 to .295.
Count on him to enhance in opposition to fastballs in 2026 — he hit .295 with 13 residence runs in opposition to them in 2025 versus .342 with 18 residence runs in 2024 — however what we do not know is how the brand new dimensions on the Kansas Metropolis Royals’ Kauffman Stadium will have an effect on his extra-base productiveness. The fences shall be nearer by 9 toes within the corners and 10 toes within the energy alleys (heart discipline will stay at 410 toes). That ought to lead to a couple extra residence runs for Witt however would possibly remove just a few doubles and triples.
Verdict: Actual. Witt had 32 residence runs in 2024 earlier than dropping to 23 in 2025, so we all know there’s 30-homer energy right here — and possibly nearer to 40 with the brand new ballpark dimensions. He is coming into his age-26 season, a standard age for a participant’s finest season. Add 20 factors or so again to his batting common, and reaching 92 extra-base hits is in play.
Paul Skenes: Sub-2.00 ERA … once more
Season 1: 133 IP, 1.96 ERA
Season 2: 187⅔ IP, 1.97 ERA
Because the finish of the useless ball period in 1920, solely two pitchers have thrown not less than 100 innings in three completely different seasons with an ERA underneath 2.00: Sandy Koufax did it in 1963, 1964 and 1966; Kershaw did it in 2013, 2014 and 2016. Be aware that neither of them did it three seasons in a row. Skenes can do this in 2026 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Granted, Koufax averaged 323 innings in his three seasons and Kershaw averaged 194 in his three, whereas Skenes is aiming for his first 200-inning season — however that additionally leaves much less margin for error for Skenes to publish a sub-2.00 ERA. In 1963, Koufax allowed 5 or extra runs in 5 of his begins, together with one wherein he bought only one out; in 1965, he allowed five-plus runs 5 instances; and in 1966, it occurred twice, in begins of simply two and three innings. Skenes allowed 5 runs in a begin simply as soon as in 2025 — and simply 45 runs total throughout 32 begins.
Skenes is likely to be the right pitcher prototype: He is tall (6-foot-6); he throws arduous (his four-seam fastball averaged 98.2 mph in 2025) and throws strikes; he makes use of seven completely different pitches; he is devoted to his craft with an already legendary pregame routine; he is constant — in 11 months within the majors, his worst ERA has been 3.18; and he is mature and centered.
Any nitpicks? His fastball spin charge is just common, so he does not get the experience up within the strike zone — and thus does not get fairly as a lot swing-and-miss as you would possibly anticipate given his velocity. Batters nonetheless hit simply .205 in opposition to his four-seamer and .220 in opposition to his sinker. That is about it. What’s scary is there’s room for enchancment: He may decrease his stroll charge (he was twenty fourth amongst pitchers with not less than 100 innings in 2025) and pitch deeper into video games. And he’s nonetheless studying the artwork of pitching: He does not flip 24 years previous till the tip of Might.
Verdict: Actual. Once more, all it takes is a few blow-up begins, and a sub-2.00 ERA on this period turns into troublesome. Nevertheless, Skenes had 12 begins final season the place he allowed no runs. That complete ought to rise in 2026 — and I doubt there shall be many, if any, five-run outings for this ace.
Two gamers who aren’t identified for his or her pace had surprising stolen base totals in 2025: Soto swiped 38 bases in 42 makes an attempt and tied for the Nationwide League lead, and the even-slower Josh Naylor stole 30 bases in 32 makes an attempt. Soto additionally hit a career-high 43 residence runs, so he simply missed changing into the seventh participant with a 40/40 season. He particularly ran wild on the basepaths over the ultimate two months of the season, his 23 steals proof that swiping bases is as a lot about aptitude and willpower as pure footspeed.
Can he do it once more? Effectively, Soto has his sights on an MVP Award — “It is not going to be straightforward, however I’ve bought to discover a solution to beat him,” he said last month, referencing four-time winner Ohtani — and a 40/40 season would offer a daring headline to assist that occur. After a gradual begin in 2025 that noticed him hitting .224 on Might 28, the New York Mets slugger hit .285/.418/.596 over his remaining 105 video games. If he does that for six months, we’ll have an MVP debate.
Verdict: Actual. It is likely to be straightforward to say groups shall be extra conscious of Soto’s baserunning in 2026, however they have been conscious of what he was doing in August and September and nonetheless could not cease him. I believe he’ll have one other huge 12 months on the bases.
Mason Miller: Sub-.100 batting common allowed
It is going to occur considered one of these years: A reliever with not less than 50 innings will preserve his batting common allowed underneath .100. Kirby Yates got here closest, permitting a .113 common in 2024. Aroldis Chapman held batters to a .132 common final season with Miller not far behind at .139. Batters have been 28-for-202 off Miller; they would wish to go 20-for-202 to get the common all the way down to .099.
Is permitting eight fewer hits — assuming the identical variety of innings — doable? It does not really feel like that many, proper? Then think about that in his two months with the San Diego Padres, batters went 7-for-73 off Miller (together with 1-for-37 in September). That is a mean of .096. Over his remaining 4 months, Miller held batters to a mean of .092. It appears doable! Then again, solely two relievers have persistently held batters to a mean underneath .150 12 months after 12 months: Chapman (5 instances) and Craig Kimbrel (5 instances). No one else has performed it greater than twice.
Verdict: Not Actual. Contemplating he is this unhittable and his fastball averages 101 mph in brief bursts out of the pen, it is comprehensible why the Padres are protecting Miller as a more in-depth relatively than making him a starter, as rumored once they acquired him from the A’s eventually 12 months’s commerce deadline. Frankly, he is most likely slightly too wild to develop into a starter, or not less than a dominant one, anyway.
As for a sub-.100 common? Provided that Miller averaged 15.2 strikeouts per 9 innings, he is not permitting many balls in play, that is for certain. I am taking the over, since a sub-.100 common would require a mixture of domination and luck on balls in play, however this shall be one to watch.
Nick Kurtz: Second-youngest participant to hit 50 residence runs in a season
As a 22-year-old rookie, Kurtz got here up late in April with simply 33 profession video games within the minors and went on to slug 36 residence runs in 117 video games over the course of the 2025 season. He was so good that comparisons to Corridor of Fame slugger Jim Thome do not appear absurd, not that it is truthful to match a younger hitter to somebody who hit 612 profession residence runs.
However 36 residence runs in 117 video games equates to a tempo of 49 in 160 video games — and Kurtz did that regardless that he hit simply .197 in opposition to left-handers, a mark that ought to enhance with added expertise. He liked hitting in Sacramento, bashing 22 residence runs in 59 video games, which bodes properly for one more huge season as his Athletics stay there in 2026.
Prince Fielder is the one 23-year-old with a 50-homer season, hitting 50 for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007. He was born in Might, and Kurtz was born in March, making Fielder two months youthful than Kurtz of their age-23 seasons.
Verdict: Not Actual. Kurtz will hit 50 residence runs — simply not in 2026. He’ll face loads of left-handed relievers, and we have to see if these changes in opposition to lefties will occur this rapidly. I am going to predict 45 residence runs for the season.
Junior Caminero: Youngest participant to hit 50 residence runs in a season
Ah, Kurtz was only a tease to Caminero. The Tampa Bay Rays third baseman hit 45 residence runs final 12 months in his age-21 season, the second most ever at that age behind Eddie Mathews’ 47 for the Milwaukee Braves in 1953. Probably the most by a 22-year-old: 48 by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2021. With unreal bat pace, Caminero seems to have a vivid future as one of many premier sluggers within the recreation.
He made some enhancements final 12 months from his half-season in 2024. His common launch angle climbed from 6.8 levels to 10.7, so he discovered to loft the ball extra typically (though he hit loads of balls on the bottom, so there may be nonetheless room for development right here). His pull charge climbed from 32.3% to 44.4%, which is good for hitting residence runs. His swing-and-miss charge dropped from 31.7% to 24.7%, so he made rather more contact. All optimistic indicators for a younger energy hitter.
Verdict: Not Actual. My solely hesitation right here is that Caminero remains to be vulnerable to chasing out of the strike zone. Out of 146 certified hitters, he ranked 116th in chase charge. Will pitchers work out easy methods to exploit that extra in 2026? Will he hit to the alternative discipline extra this season, maybe sacrificing some energy for the next common (and fewer pulled grounders, which led to an MLB-high 31 double performs grounded into final 12 months)? Along with his bat pace, there are a number of instructions his offensive recreation may go, however I am betting on pure energy.
Like Kurtz, I believe Caminero ultimately will get to 50 residence runs, however that is an aggressive prediction for 2026, particularly contemplating the Rays are again in Tropicana Area after a season at George Steinbrenner Area, a minor league ballpark. The Trop has by no means been an excellent residence run park — and Caminero hit .313 at Steinbrenner Area final season in contrast with .218 on the street.
