In December 2020, with no followers in arenas and features of credit score and loans to house owners rising, NBA commissioner Adam Silver mentioned the league was taking a fresh look at the idea of expanding after practically 20 years.
Within the three-plus years since he floated the idea, a complete business has developed as nice anticipation has constructed. Potential possession teams have been quietly elevating cash. Two companies have introduced deliberate new arenas in Las Vegas. LeBron James has openly campaigned for Silver to award him a team. All ready for a “go” from the league.
On the Finals in June, Silver additional stoked the enlargement flames. He mentioned that after getting a brand new collective bargaining deal carried out with the gamers, which occurred final yr, and securing a brand new nationwide TV rights deal, which was finalized in July, expansion would be on the agenda.
On the annual fall board of governors assembly final week in New York, Silver supplied an replace and mentioned enlargement could be mentioned by the league “at some point this season,” although not simply but.
So when? The place? Who? Why? How?
NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst share all the newest intel from conversations with sources in and across the NBA on how this sophisticated, league-altering course of might play out.
Bounce to: Seattle, Las Vegas or … Mexico City?
Team owners? LeBron, Amazon execs in mix | Changing of the conferences?
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Adam Silver on NBA enlargement: We’re not fairly prepared but
NBA commissioner Adam Silver breaks down why he and the league’s board of governors aren’t fairly prepared to debate enlargement.
When might the NBA even have a brand new group or groups?
It is a fluid and unsure course of. The NBA final introduced enlargement in 2002, and the Charlotte Bobcats began play in October 2004. However that turnaround is not a good comparability as a result of the league did not contemplate different cities and was changing a relocated group (the Hornets moved to New Orleans that yr), which allowed for a fast turnaround.
With Silver not but absolutely committing to increasing and retaining the timeline for even starting the method undefined, each side — league sources and people who find themselves engaged on forming bidding teams — are focusing on the 2027-28 season. Though beginning in 2026-27 is not unattainable, it has turn out to be extra unrealistic.
That may appear to be a very long time, particularly for followers in cities ready for a group. However the course of may have a number of phases: deciding whether or not to develop, selecting cities, choosing possession teams in what might be an expansive bidding course of, and permitting for the brand new group or groups to construct up infrastructure.
Why develop now?
It is a query the league’s governors have been informally debating over the previous a number of years and are doubtless headed to formally debating within the close to future.
The query of enlargement is in the end an financial one. The central subject is whether or not bringing in new groups and diluting the shares of collective income, specifically the media rights, is well worth the short- and long-term rewards.
Presently all NBA groups personal 3.3% of the league and share the billions in income accordingly. Spreading that over 32 groups barely reduces the sharing, however calculated over a long time, these proportion factors imply giant sums.
However, the enlargement charge — the value the brand new possession teams pay on to the present house owners for the rights to their new groups — might internet groups a large short-term windfall, and increasing additionally might improve the league’s footprint and general fan base, which has doubtlessly optimistic long-term results.
So will it occur?
Two key issues have maybe tipped the scales towards enlargement. First, franchise valuations are in an explosion cycle. The Minnesota Timberwolves have been offered in 2021 for a $1.5 billion valuation (though that sale is still pending). Within the three years since, three groups have offered for greater than $3 billion, together with the 2023 sale of the Phoenix Suns for $4 billion.
Presently the Boston Celtics are on the market, and there are indications they might produce the very best worth ever for an NBA group, a file presently held by Mat Ishbia’s buy of the Suns. That might even additional reset the market, and that could be a contributing issue within the NBA’s resolution to go slower on enlargement and look forward to that sale to occur, league sources mentioned.
At these costs, a pair of latest enlargement groups might internet the league north of $10 billion mixed — which means each group would obtain a verify for over $300 million as the brand new groups come into the league. That’s naturally an attractive proposition and means above what Silver would’ve anticipated when he modified his stance on enlargement again in 2020.
Relying on when a possible bidding course of takes place and variables like the worldwide financial system, it is attainable forecasting $10 billion for the 2 groups might even be conservative.
Additionally, with the NBA agreeing to a new TV deal over the summer season for $76 billion over the following 11 years, any worries over mildly diluting shared revenue streams has been lowered. Nonetheless, that does not imply it is a assured factor to occur. There are a minimum of some house owners who’re skeptical of whether or not it makes monetary sense in the long run to develop.
Would enlargement charges have any influence on the wage cap?
No. The enlargement charges are paid on to the present house owners — a part of what makes the thought of enlargement doubtlessly interesting to them.
Do the gamers have any say?
The choice on whether or not to develop comes right down to the NBA’s board of governors, which must vote so as to add two members to its group. Whereas there are issues the Nationwide Basketball Gamers Affiliation has a say in — corresponding to, for instance, doubtlessly making the schedule shorter — including groups will not be certainly one of them.
That mentioned, the thought of including one other 30 jobs (36 when embody two-way contracts) is one the union could be very a lot in favor of, sources mentioned.
Which cities would get groups?
Seattle and Las Vegas have been thought of front-runners for a while. However it shouldn’t be assumed the NBA will certainly choose them.
Why Seattle?
Seattle has been the most important market with out an NBA group because the SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma Metropolis in 2008 and has turn out to be extra engaging from a professional sports activities standpoint within the interim due to a tech growth led by the league’s latest broadcast accomplice, Amazon.
For years, the problem with the NBA’s return to Seattle was the shortage of a alternative for KeyArena, deemed insufficient by the league as a part of the Sonics’ transfer. That modified in 2021 when the renovated Local weather Pledge Enviornment opened as the house of the enlargement NHL Kraken and WNBA Storm.
Regardless of the 16 years and counting the Sonics have been gone, they continue to be immensely fashionable as followers who grew up on the groups led by Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp that reached the 1996 NBA Finals have had households of their very own. A brand new fan-led group, Seattle NBA Fans, is launching with an occasion subsequent week to showcase the town’s potential to help Sonics 2.0.
Why Las Vegas?
Sin Metropolis has turn out to be the NBA’s unofficial thirty first metropolis over the previous era, with the annual Las Vegas summer season league rising over the previous decade into the NBA’s model of Comedian-Con, a large occasion that brings tons of of hundreds of followers every July. And, on high of that, Vegas is now the annual host of the championship rounds of the league’s newly created Emirates NBA Cup (previously simply known as the in-season match).
It is also a metropolis that has seen an explosion in recognition from a sports activities standpoint lately, with the Raiders arriving from Oakland, the Aces coming from San Antonio, the Golden Knights coming into the NHL as an enlargement group and, assuming John Fisher can pull it off, the Athletics (ultimately) coming from Oakland. In consequence, the town is a pure match as a possible second entry alongside Seattle.
Are there different cities that might attempt to get a group?
The widespread perception amongst league and group sources that we’ve got talked to is that Seattle and Las Vegas are the logical touchdown factors for a pair of latest enlargement groups. However that does not imply there could not be some twists and turns within the course of.
If there may be one other metropolis to leap into the combination, the more than likely one to take action is Mexico Metropolis. Essentially the most populous metropolis in North America, the capital of Mexico has been a constant host of NBA regular-season video games since 1992, and the 33 video games performed there since then are essentially the most anyplace exterior of the USA and Canada. Mexico Metropolis is residence to the G League’s Capitanes and would offer the league with a gap into the Latin and South American markets in addition to one other worldwide metropolis. Nonetheless, there are quite a lot of logistical hurdles to beat for an NBA group to exist there full time.
Cities corresponding to Montreal and Vancouver, British Columbia, have been raised as potentialities up to now, together with Kansas Metropolis, Missouri, and Louisville, Kentucky, each of which have already got NBA-caliber arenas. Different cities that might doubtlessly be residence to groups, corresponding to San Jose, California, and Austin, Texas, run into the issue of bumping up towards different groups — in San Jose’s case the Golden State Warriors, and in Austin’s the San Antonio Spurs, who already play regular-season video games there.
Who’re potential house owners in Seattle?
The Kraken’s possession group, led by proprietor Samantha Holloway and her father (founding proprietor David Bonderman), has been getting ready for a bid. That group options sturdy NBA ties. Bonderman has been a member of the Celtics’ possession group since their 2002 sale, whereas Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and the sons of former Sonics proprietor Barry Ackerley are additionally a part of Kraken possession.
In a Could letter to Kraken season-ticket holders, Holloway shared that the group was forming “a guardian model that may umbrella the Kraken model and put together for different huge alternatives.” The Kraken are on observe to formally make that announcement of a guardian firm alongside the strains of Vulcan Sports activities (proprietor of the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks) within the close to future. Moreover, they’ve used longtime NBA govt and Seattle native Rick Welts as an adviser, per sources. Most just lately president of the Golden State Warriors, Welts started his Corridor of Fame profession with the Sonics, beginning as a ball boy.
Chris Hansen, chief of a gaggle whose bid to buy the Sacramento Kings in 2013 and transfer them to Seattle was voted down by the league’s board of governors, will not be anticipated to move a bid for an enlargement group, per sources. Hansen, who has highlighted the return of the Sonics as the first aim of his efforts, stays prepared to help any profitable Seattle bidder.
Might a Seattle group be the SuperSonics? Would they maintain that franchise’s pre-2008 historical past?
In brief: sure and sure.
The deal between Thunder possession and the town of Seattle resolving a lawsuit over the group’s enviornment lease and permitting the transfer to Oklahoma Metropolis stipulated that the identify SuperSonics and all related logos, colours and trademark could be transferred to the proprietor of a brand new NBA group permitted to play at a renovated KeyArena for gratis.
That settlement laid out the phrases of shared possession of Sonics historical past, together with the group’s 1979 championship trophy and retired jerseys. Formally, the NBA combines the historical past of the 2 groups. For instance, the league acknowledges Payton as Oklahoma Metropolis’s profession chief in video games performed.
The Thunder, nevertheless, don’t cling any banners for the SuperSonics in Oklahoma Metropolis, and so they do not spotlight any Seattle stats of their media information — itemizing, for instance, Russell Westbrook because the group’s profession assists chief reasonably than Payton.
Sources mentioned that if a group have been to return to Seattle, the Thunder would cede the Seattle historical past again to the SuperSonics — simply because the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets reclaimed the Charlotte-era historical past of the New Orleans Pelicans when Charlotte switched from being the Bobcats to the Hornets in 2014.
Who’re the potential house owners in Las Vegas?
There’s one very apparent identify right here: LeBron James.
For the higher a part of a decade, James has been clear about his need to hitch Michael Jordan as all-time nice turned group governor and turn out to be a real shareholder within the NBA. James’ off-court funding choices, together with taking an fairness place with Boston Celtics, Pittsburgh Penguins and Liverpool FC possession group Fenway Sports activities, have been made with this in thoughts.
James has continued to develop relationships with deep-pocketed sports activities buyers corresponding to John Henry and Gerry Cardinale, who might be companions in making a bid for an enlargement group. Final yr, he traveled to Saudi Arabia and met with Badr bin Abdullah Al Saud, a member of the royal household and the dominion’s minister of tradition. Lately, the Saudis have been investing in Western sport. In 2022, the NBA cleared the way in which for sovereign wealth funds to speculate as much as 20% in groups.
Whether or not taking part in in exhibition video games in Vegas, profitable MVP of the first-ever NBA Cup within the metropolis or taking part in there with Staff USA, James has steadily spoken of his need to personal an enlargement group there.
The NBA has a rule that lively gamers can’t have an possession stake in a group. This got here up in 2001, when Jordan got here out of retirement and was pressured to surrender his share of the Washington Wizards. League sources mentioned that as a result of the enlargement course of hasn’t began but, there have not been concrete discussions over the principles that will govern it, together with this one.
That mentioned, if the following enlargement franchises have been to start out play within the 2027-28 season, that does line up properly with the tip of James’ present contract with the Lakers, which runs by way of the 2026-27 season.
Are there different potential house owners within the combine in Las Vegas?
Former Milwaukee Bucks proprietor Marc Lasry is placing collectively a gaggle to bid on a possible Las Vegas enlargement group, sources mentioned — a gaggle that features WNBA legend Candace Parker, amongst others. There are different teams additionally exploring the chance in each Las Vegas and Seattle, sources mentioned, though till the NBA truly suggestions off the method and provides readability on the value of franchises, there aren’t more likely to be any formal bulletins of anybody’s potential curiosity.
If two groups are added within the West, what’s going to occur to the conferences?
Presuming the 2 new groups are awarded to Seattle and Las Vegas, they might each land within the Western Convention. That will imply there could be 15 groups within the East and 17 groups within the West, necessitating one shifting from West to East to steadiness issues out.
This can doubtless come right down to a call amongst three groups: the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies. The Pelicans and Grizzlies are the easternmost groups within the Western Convention, however in addition they are brief flights from a number of Western Convention opponents (one another, all three Texas groups and the Thunder).
Minnesota, in the meantime, is a little bit farther west however is way extra geographically remoted. The Timberwolves’ closest Western Convention opponent, by air miles, is the Denver Nuggets (680 miles). By comparability, Minnesota has 5 East cities (Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit and Cleveland) which are shorter journeys than that, plus a sixth (Toronto) that’s the very same distance.
It could doubtless be a protracted combat to find out who would transfer east, however these details appear to make Minnesota essentially the most logical alternative.
What influence might enlargement have on the NBA playoff format? What in regards to the NBA Cup?
So far as the playoffs go, bumping as much as 32 groups should not change something. Every convention would doubtless add another group, and the identical guidelines would make sense to hold over to a post-expansion world. Ten groups would qualify for the postseason, six instantly and 4 into the play-in match. Six groups, reasonably than 5 now, would go on to the lottery.
Going as much as 32 groups, nevertheless, would doubtlessly end in optimistic adjustments for the Emirates NBA Cup. Presently, the league splits the match’s group stage into six teams of 5 — which means it may well’t have each group play on the ultimate day of group play as a result of there are odd numbers of groups in every group.
A 32-team pool to tug from would permit the NBA to reflect the 32-team World Cup format: eight teams of 4 groups, every of which might play one another as soon as (or twice, relying on how lengthy the league wish to have the group stage play out). Then, the NBA might have 16 groups advance to the knockout portion of the match, taking the highest two groups from every group (because the World Cup does) or it might have every group winner advance and have the identical quarterfinal-semifinal-final format it does now.
Coming Wednesday: A proof of the enlargement draft course of, plus the Hoop Collective’s mock enlargement draft.
