The AFC and NFC conference championships are right here! Sunday’s slate begins with surging rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders taking up the Philadelphia Eagles. Then the Kansas City Chiefs will host MVP contender Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Our NFL Nation reporters deliver us the largest keys to each video games, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X issue to observe, and workers author Kevin Seifert tells us what to know in regards to the officiating. The ESPN Analysis workforce additionally offers a giant stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Lastly, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us remaining rating picks for each recreation.
All the things you need to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the total convention slate.
Bounce to a matchup:
WSH-PHI | BUF-KC
3 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -6 (47.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to observe: It’s going to be attention-grabbing to see how Washington handles defensive sort out Jalen Carter and operating again Saquon Barkley. Commanders proper guard Sam Cosmi, who confronted Carter within the first two conferences towards the Eagles, tore his proper ACL towards the Lions and is completed for the season. Now it is unsure who will begin there, however the substitute will not be at Cosmi’s stage and should deal with top-of-the-line defenders within the NFL. As for Barkley, he gained 130 yards and three touchdowns on simply three of his carries versus Washington this season — and 26 others went for two yards or much less. — John Keim
Eagles storyline to observe: Quarterback Jalen Hurts injured his left knee in final week’s divisional spherical playoff win over the Rams. He rushed six instances for 71 yards earlier than being wrestled down awkwardly within the third quarter; his solely dashing stats afterward got here on a kneel-down to finish the sport. Barkley mentioned he expects “Jalen to be Jalen,” however questions stay about simply how cell Hurts can be within the title recreation. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: That is the fifth NFC Championship Sport between NFC East groups, and the primary since 1986. The earlier two winners (1982 Washington and 1986 Giants) received the Tremendous Bowl, too. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Barkley and Hurts will mix for at the least 42 dashing makes an attempt. No workforce within the league invitations opponents to hurry greater than the Commanders, who play nickel 95% of the time towards 12 and 21 personnel. Washington has a negative-10% go charge over expectation, lowest within the NFL. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Commanders huge receiver Dyami Brown. Brown has added a big-play factor to the Commanders’ go recreation as a third-level goal for quarterback Jayden Daniels. In Washington’s two playoff wins, Brown caught 11 passes for 187 yards and a landing. Search for Commanders’ offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to arrange Brown on ideas that assault each split-safety and man protection. — Bowen
Accidents: Commanders | Eagles
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-3 outright and 6-2 towards the unfold (ATS) as underdogs this season with three straight outright wins. The Eagles have received 9 straight residence video games (5-4 ATS). Read more. — ESPN Analysis
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Hochuli labored the Commanders’ Week 15 victory over the Saints. His crew flagged Washington 10 instances, together with twice for roughing the passer. He additionally labored the Eagles’ Week 6 victory over the Browns, throwing 5 flags towards Philadelphia, together with as soon as for roughing the passer. Total, he tied for the third-most flags for roughing the passer (9). — Seifert
Kahler’s decide: Commanders 31 Eagles 30
Moody’s decide: Commanders 34, Eagles 30
Walder’s decide: Eagles 30, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 63.7% (by a mean of 5.1 factors)
6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -2 (47.5 O/U)
Payments storyline to observe: Can the Payments lastly take down the Chiefs within the playoffs after shedding three straight to Kansas Metropolis within the postseason? The Payments should go towards historical past to take action, having misplaced seven straight street playoff video games. The power to restrict quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play a big function, particularly given Buffalo’s energy at forcing takeaways. In Buffalo’s regular-season win over Kansas Metropolis, Mahomes threw two interceptions. Nonetheless, the Chiefs have gone eight straight video games, together with the playoffs, with out committing a turnover. — Alaina Getzenberg
Chiefs storyline to observe: The Chiefs will put additional emphasis on third-down protection towards the Payments, who transformed 9-of-15 on third downs of their Week 11 win over Kansas Metropolis. That led to Buffalo holding a bonus of 71 offensive performs to 52 and a time of possession fringe of 34 minutes to 26. Getting Josh Allen and the Payments’ offense off the sphere will take some creativity from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a powerful go rush just like the Chiefs confirmed last week, after they sacked Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud eight instances. — Adam Teicher
2:14
Orlovsky makes ‘Rocky IV’ comparability for Josh Allen vs. Chiefs
Dan Orlovsky breaks down what’s at stake for Josh Allen’s legacy within the AFC Championship Sport between the Payments and the Chiefs.
Stat to know: The Payments have dedicated the fewest turnovers in NFL this season (8) whereas additionally producing a league-high 35 takeaways, together with the common season and the playoffs. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Chiefs operating again Samaje Perine will report at the least 4 receptions, matching a season-high mark for him. Twenty-one p.c of targets towards the Payments have gone to operating backs this yr — third highest within the league. And since I am additionally predicting a Payments victory, I feel the Chiefs will discover themselves in additional passing conditions than standard. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Chiefs defensive finish George Karlaftis. Limiting Allen’s potential to get to the sides of the pocket, the place he can create as a each a runner and thrower, is vital for the Chiefs protection. Karlaftis, who had three sacks within the divisional spherical, can be tasked with containing Allen and producing stress late within the down. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 outright and ATS towards one another. However Mahomes is 3-0 outright and ATS within the playoffs. Read more. — ESPN Analysis
Officiating nugget: Clete Blakeman has been the referee for 12 Chiefs video games since Mahomes was drafted in 2017. They’re 6-6 in these video games and 110-30 in all different video games. Blakeman’s regular-season crew led the NFL with 18.1 flags per recreation, but it surely’s price noting that Blakeman himself threw solely three flags for roughing the passer, tied for the second fewest within the league. — Seifert
Kahler’s decide: Payments 34 Chiefs 31
Moody’s decide: Payments 30, Chiefs 29
Walder’s decide: Payments 29, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 54.6% (by a mean of 1.6 factors)
