The wild-card round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is accomplished, and the divisional round matchups are set. Within the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers will play on the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday, and the Los Angeles Rams will face the Bears in Chicago on Sunday. As for the AFC, the Buffalo Bills will play on the Denver Broncos on Saturday, whereas the New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans on Sunday.
To look forward at these video games, we requested our NFL Nation reporters to select one factor we realized in regards to the groups they cowl in the course of the wild-card spherical. (For the Seahawks and Broncos, who did not play this week, Brady Henderson and Jeff Legwold offered some info from what they did in the course of the bye week.) Seth Walder additionally explored how every staff can win to advance to the convention championship video games, and we offered projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening traces.
Let’s begin with the 49ers versus the Seahawks.
Bounce to a matchup:
SF-SEA | LAR-CHI
BUF-DEN | HOU-NE
NFC
When: 8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Fox
FPI projection: SEA, 58.8%
Opening line: SEA -7 (46.5)
What we realized in regards to the 49ers within the wild-card spherical: Widespread sense would recommend {that a} staff enjoying with out so lots of its largest stars — edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and, as of Sunday, tight finish George Kittle — would ultimately run out of the magic that has outlined its unlikely postseason run. Sunday was not that day. Regardless of one other devastating harm to a staff chief, these Niners proceed to defy standard knowledge and carve a path few may have foreseen earlier than the season. Sunday’s lesson was a well-known one: So long as these Niners get to maintain enjoying, it is unwise to depend them out. — Nick Wagoner
What the Seahawks did throughout their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced exterior within the components on Wednesday and Thursday — in a light-weight rain Wednesday and with temperatures within the low 40s and the wind blowing each days — as coach Mike Macdonald tried to get his staff accustomed to enjoying within the form of climate it’d see within the postseason. “We’re not treating it like a regular-season bye week the place guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and having fun with their time,” Professional Bowl defensive lineman Leonard Williams stated. “I believe we actually celebrated that win towards the Niners. However instantly that subsequent day, you may inform guys had been like, ‘Hey, the job will not be achieved. We have got quite a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson
Why the 49ers will win: As a result of Sam Darnold will not be the identical participant he was at the start of the season. Ten weeks into the marketing campaign, the Seahawks quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). However in Week 11, Seattle misplaced on the Rams, and from that second ahead, Darnold ranked twenty seventh (36.9) in the identical metric! The 49ers won’t fall into the entice different groups have towards Seattle: matching the Seahawks’ massive personnel with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy staff, which is able to both invite Seattle to run or power Darnold into much less favorable passing conditions. And for all that went unsuitable within the 49ers’ regular-season finale, they nonetheless held the Seahawks to simply 13 factors.
Giving San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan two weeks to review movie after that loss may be sufficient for him to search out some new methods to beat that seemingly impenetrable Macdonald protection. And the 49ers have a great passing recreation; they’ve averaged 0.17 anticipated factors added (EPA) per dropback, which ranked sixth greatest amongst all groups and fifth greatest amongst those who made the playoffs. With All-Professional offensive sort out Trent Williams expected to play (he missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers undoubtedly have an opportunity right here.
Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it Week 18 within the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers’ offense with its ferocious protection, holding San Francisco to solely three factors. It was hardly an aberration: Seattle has the most effective protection in soccer, and the stats are simple. No. 1 in EPA allowed per play. No. 1 in opponent’s success charge. And considered one of my favorites: minus-30 first downs over expectation allowed on opponent runs, in keeping with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, doubling up the next-best staff within the common season (the Houston Texans at minus-15).
However there’s one more reason for Seahawks optimism: Whereas their passing recreation has not been the identical within the second half of the season, they will offset that with a extra dependable dashing assault towards a 49ers protection that’s hurting at linebacker. Warner and Tatum Bethune are out, and Dee Winters missed San Francisco’s wild-card recreation too. — Walder
Matchup background: These groups met Jan. 3 at Levi’s Stadium, with the Seahawks beating the 49ers 13-3 to clinch the NFC West and homefield benefit all through the convention playoffs. The 49ers defeated Seattle 17-13 within the season opener at Lumen Area, with San Francisco forcing a late turnover to carry on. These franchises have break up two earlier playoff matchups, with Seattle successful the 2013 NFC Championship Sport and the 49ers knocking out the Seahawks within the 2022 wild-card spherical. — ESPN
Stat to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six fumbles misplaced). That is the primary time relationship to 1978 {that a} participant on a No. 1-seeded staff has led the league in turnovers. — ESPN Analysis
1:19
Ought to Rams be involved after tight win over Panthers?
Alex Smith, Tedy Bruschi, Rex Ryan and Randy Moss focus on the Rams’ 34-31 wild-card win over the Panthers.
When: 6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, NBC
FPI projection: LAR, 62.0%
Opening line: LAR -4.5 (51.5)
What we realized in regards to the Rams within the wild-card spherical: The soccer world as soon as once more noticed why the Rams really feel so assured in these got-to-have-it conditions with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead landing drives within the fourth quarter against the Panthers, together with one with 38 seconds left. “That is why we’re advancing, due to his management,” Rams coach Sean McVay stated. Stafford now has 4 profession game-winning drives within the fourth quarter or additional time of a playoff recreation. In line with ESPN Analysis, the one signal-caller with extra since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 is Patrick Mahomes with six. — Sarah Barshop
What we realized in regards to the Bears within the wild-card spherical: The Bears proceed to be top-of-the-line second-half groups within the NFL. After trailing Inexperienced Bay 21-3 at halftime, Chicago scored 25 factors within the fourth quarter to beat the Packers 31-27. However as they have been saying all season, the Bears want to begin sooner on either side of the ball. Chicago’s protection pressured Packers quarterback Jordan Love on solely 18% of his dropbacks within the first half (versus 32% within the second half, together with 4 instances on Inexperienced Bay’s last drive). Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense struggled till the QB turned his deep-ball passing round within the second half, when Williams was 7-of-13 for 166 yards and a landing on passes of 15 or extra air yards. Within the first half, Williams was 2-for-5 for 40 yards with an interception on such throws. — Courtney Cronin
Why the Rams will win: The Rams are arguably the most effective staff in soccer — and the Bears should not. Do not get me unsuitable: Chicago deserves loads of credit score for its outstanding season, however the numbers clearly favor Los Angeles. The Rams are ranked second in EPA per play on offense, and so they have the MVP favourite at quarterback, the most effective extensive receiver in soccer in Puka Nacua and a strong offensive line that can give Stafford all day to throw towards the Bears’ missing move rush.
The Bears have a powerful operating recreation, and we have actually seen Williams have unbelievable moments. However when it comes to EPA per play, the Rams have the benefit on either side of the ball. Plus, we may argue that we did not see the true model of the Rams within the wild-card round after Stafford suffered an early finger injury (however nonetheless managed to orchestrate a comeback, anyway). And if Nacua had not had an extremely uncharacteristic drop on what certainly would have been a landing on the finish of the primary half, the Rams might need overwhelmed the Panthers extra comfortably.
And whereas the Rams’ protection will not be excellent, every of the foremost gamers on the road — Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Poona Ford — can create mayhem for his or her opponents.
2:00
Stephen A.: Broncos are sending Josh Allen residence
Stephen A. Smith and Ryan Clark debate how far Josh Allen can go this postseason.
Why the Bears will win: They’ll by no means be dominated out. Chicago added to its season of inconceivable victories with an incredible come-from-behind win over the Packers wherein the Bears entered the fourth quarter down 15 factors and exited it up 4. In between, we witnessed the Bears at their very best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth-and-8 to maintain Chicago’s hopes alive, and coach Ben Johnson used an imbalanced line to promote the display screen of a screen-and-go, fooling the Packers’ secondary and liberating DJ Moore for a landing.
However what makes Chicago so threatening is that it gained regardless of not even being the most effective model of itself. Within the common season, the Bears averaged a 48% success charge on designed runs (third greatest), however that quantity dropped to twenty-eight% towards Inexperienced Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target charge and a minus-14% completion proportion over expectation (per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats) — each solidly worse than his regular-season marks. The Bears can be residence underdogs towards the Rams, and Los Angeles’ offense ought to have a critical benefit over the Bears’ protection. However the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 within the common season. They will want extra of that turnover variance to go their approach towards the Rams, but it surely’s doable. — Walder
Matchup background: The Rams and the Bears didn’t play this season, with their most up-to-date matchup coming in Week 4 of 2024. Chicago prevailed 24-18 at Soldier Area, breaking a three-game shedding streak to Los Angeles. That is solely the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the primary in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24-0 within the 1985 NFC Championship Sport en path to the Tremendous Bowl XX title, which is Chicago’s most up-to-date NFL championship. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Rams haven’t performed a playoff recreation with freezing temperatures at kickoff since Dec. 26, 1983, on the Cowboys within the NFC wild-card spherical. The early forecast for Sunday in Chicago is 23 levels in keeping with AccuWeather. — ESPN Analysis
AFC
When: 4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, CBS
FPI projection: DEN, 51.3%
Opening line: DEN -1.5 (46.5)
What we realized in regards to the Payments within the wild-card spherical: The Payments can win on the street within the postseason. After coming into the sport towards the Jaguars with the second-longest street playoff shedding streak in NFL historical past (eight straight), Buffalo obtained its first win away from Orchard Park, New York, within the playoffs below coach Sean McDermott and the primary below any coach since 1992. Additionally they did it in comeback vogue. This can be a wanted increase for the Payments as their postseason journey continues on the street subsequent week. — Alaina Getzenberg
What the Broncos did throughout their bye week: Broncos coach Sean Payton tried to place the staff in a playoff mode in the course of the bye week, particularly in Friday’s follow, when it was starters towards starters for many of the staff drills. Payton stated he was “salty” on the offense’s efficiency in Denver’s regular-season finale, when it did not rating a landing and was 0-of-3 in crimson zone journeys in a 19-3 win. Payton stated the offense “must be higher” for any postseason run. He believes it will likely be essential for the Broncos to be aggressive offensively, including that “we’ll undoubtedly stretch the ball down the sphere. We’ll be aggressive in how we name these video games.” — Jeff Legwold
Why the Payments will win: Josh Allen. Forgive simplicity, however the thesis for Buffalo is that Allen is the most effective quarterback within the playoffs and might put the staff on his again. That’s precisely what he did within the wild-card spherical towards the Jaguars.
Allen was battered and bruised all through, but it surely did not cease him from compiling an astounding 87.3 QBR and plus-9% completion proportion over expectation, per Subsequent Gen Stats, together with a passing landing and one other on the bottom. Regardless of all of the knocks he took from Jacksonville, Allen nonetheless delivered two vital blows on the Payments’ last drive. He related on a 36-yard shot to Brandin Cooks below stress from a free rusher after which — thanks in main half to his linemen — powered a 10-yard tush push to the purpose line.
Will these types of performances be harder to drag off towards a harmful Broncos protection that may mitigate Allen’s affect each on the bottom and thru the air? You wager. However the actual reply to this query will not be truly simply Allen. It is Allen, his operating backs and one of many higher offensive traces within the league. Final season’s MVP will not be on the market alone, and the Broncos’ defensive entrance won’t look fairly so dominant towards Buffalo’s assortment of expertise.
Why the Broncos will win: As a result of Denver’s protection is the proper antidote to Buffalo’s offense. Allen desires to throw the ball? He should go towards the No. 1 protection when it comes to success charge towards opposing dropbacks, because of a feisty move rush and All-Professional cornerback Pat Surtain II. Ought to Buffalo resolve to lean on its sturdy operating recreation, it is not a lot better, because the Broncos rank fourth in success charge towards them on designed runs.
Nevertheless it’s not simply protection that favors the Broncos. Quarterback Bo Nix might be enjoying the most effective soccer of his professional profession. Since Denver’s Week 12 bye, Nix has a 67.2 QBR (seventh greatest), with low interception (1.2%) and sack (4.0%) charges. And with one of many league’s greatest offensive traces in entrance of him, Nix ought to have loads of time to work. — Walder
Matchup background: The Payments and Broncos final met within the 2024 wild-card spherical, as Buffalo defeated Denver 31-7 within the Broncos’ first playoff recreation in eight seasons. They’ve performed one different time within the playoffs, because the Payments narrowly edged the Broncos within the 1991 AFC Championship Sport to advance to Tremendous Bowl XXVI. — ESPN
Stat to know: Allen turned the second participant in NFL historical past with a go-ahead passing landing and go-ahead dashing landing within the fourth quarter of the identical playoff recreation, becoming a member of 49ers quarterback Alex Smith within the 2011 NFC divisional spherical towards the Saints. — ESPN Analysis
0:36
Bullock intercepts Rodgers and returns it for a 50-yard TD
Calen Bullock intercepts Aaron Rodgers and takes it 50 yards to the home to provide the Texans a 30-6 lead vs. the Steelers.
When: 3 p.m. ET, Sunday, ABC/ESPN
FPI projection: NE, 52.1%
Opening line: NE -3 (41.5)
What we realized in regards to the Texans within the wild-card spherical: That the protection can carry them to the Tremendous Bowl. On Monday night, Houston turned the second staff in playoff historical past to attain a number of defensive touchdowns in a recreation with out permitting a landing, becoming a member of the Chicago Bears within the 1940 NFL Championship Sport vs Washington. The Texans’ protection compelled Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers right into a 14.3 Whole QBR, his worst mark in 22 profession playoff begins. It has been the theme this season, and it is why there is no argument for some other protection being thought to be the NFL’s greatest. — DJ Bien-Aime
What we realized in regards to the Patriots within the wild-card spherical: They’ll win a defensive, field-position battle. The Patriots have not been in lots of low-scoring video games this season and obtained an enormous effort from their protection towards the Chargers, particularly contemplating their first landing did not come till the fourth quarter. Rookie kicker Andy Borregales was excellent on his three area purpose makes an attempt, and the protection sacked Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 5 instances and held Los Angeles to 207 yards of complete offense. — Mike Reiss
Why the Texans will win: Their move rush towards Drake Maye. Maye fumbled twice towards the Chargers’ middling move rush Sunday. That is not a great signal coming into this recreation, as Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter current a extra substantial menace. The Patriots’ offensive line is okay (64.7% move block win charge via Sunday, 14th greatest), however Hunter and Anderson are particular. If the Texans are going to win, it will likely be by having these two — together with defensive backs Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre — decelerate the Patriots’ potent passing offense. Add a strong recreation from quarterback C.J. Stroud, and this recreation is winnable for Houston.
Additionally, for nearly as good because the Patriots have been this season, their 14 regular-season wins got here towards the NFL’s softest schedule. Getting into Monday’s recreation, ESPN’s Football Power Index thought-about Houston a greater staff than the Patriots going ahead on a impartial area. So, the Texans may pull off the street victory.
Why the Patriots will win: Their passing assault. With Maye — whom I imagine is the deserving MVP — on the helm, the Patriots racked up 0.26 EPA per dropback this season, greatest within the NFL. One other solution to put it? Each 4 instances the Patriots known as a designed move, they gained a internet level in expectation. That is outstanding, no matter whom they performed. Do not imagine the numbers? Rewatch Maye’s 28-yard landing dime to Hunter Henry in Sunday night time’s wild-card win over the Chargers.
The remainder of the Patriots’ staff will not be excellent. New England struggled to run the ball early within the season (however ranked fourth in success charge on designed runs from Week 12 on), and its protection has been strong however not particular in the course of the season (although it seemed fairly good towards the Chargers). Having defensive Milton Williams again — his presence was felt towards Los Angeles with a vital late sack — helps, too.
However the Patriots know what fuels their success. They lean on their passing assault (second-highest move charge over expectation in the course of the common season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats), and it pays dividends. I anticipate it should once more within the divisional spherical, even when the Texans current a harder pass-rushing problem than the Chargers did. — Walder
Matchup background: Houston and New England haven’t performed since Week 6 of the 2024 season, a 41-21 Texans win. The Patriots have gained each playoff conferences between the groups, most lately prevailing in a 2016 divisional spherical recreation. — ESPN Stat to know: The Texans turned solely the second staff to carry a Rodgers-led squad to fewer than 20 factors within the playoffs in Rodgers’ 22 profession postseason begins. — ESPN Analysis
