Premier League 2025-26 mega-preview: Team-by-team analysis

Are you able to imagine we’re already again? Properly, neither can we.

It looks as if simply final week Liverpool had been celebrating their second Premier League title — and their first one in entrance of followers. And it looks as if simply yesterday that Chelsea had been celebrating successful Gianni Infantino’s beloved inaugural FIFA Membership World Cup.

However our warped perceptions of time is not going to cease the Premier League from marching ahead. And the 2025-26 kicks off Friday, when defending champions Liverpool host Bournemouth at Anfield.

Regardless of what looks as if a barely existent offseason, a ton has modified. Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester Metropolis have made important investments forward of what is anticipated to be a three-team title race. Chelsea have made important investments as a result of that is simply what they do. Tottenham have a brand new coach and an enormous Son Heung-Min-shaped gap on the roster. Newcastle are having a stand-off with their celebrity striker. And Manchester United are spending cash with solely obscure considerations for concepts reminiscent of participant worth, age, squad development, techniques and the long run.

OK advantageous, that final half is not new, however there’s a lot that’s, so Ryan O’Hanlon and Invoice Connelly are again with their 20-team mega-preview. As they do yearly, they’ve every predicted the end-of-the season desk from prime to backside, averaged their predictions collectively, and produced one closing collective prediction. Here is how they see the season enjoying out, with a rundown on what has modified for every membership over the summer time.

(Notice: All switch values come from Transfermarkt.)

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• Final season’s end: first (84 factors, plus-45 purpose differential)
• Key ins: AM Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen, €125m), CF Hugo Ekitike (Eintracht Frankfurt, €80m), LB Milos Kerkez (Bournemouth, €46.9m), RB Jeremie Frimpong (Bayer Leverkusen, €40m)
• Key outs: LW Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich, €70m), CF Darwin Núñez (Al-Hilal, €53m), CB Jarell Quansah (Bayer Leverkusen, €35m), GK Caoimhín Kelleher (Brentford, €14.8m), RB Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid, €10m)

Key stat

After years of Jurgen Klopp’s high-risk, high-reward model, Liverpool had been extra affected person below Arne Slot in 2024-25, and it reaped immediate dividends.

Liverpool, 2023-24: 0.157 xG per shot (eighth), 0.152 xG allowed per shot (third)
Liverpool, 2024-25: 0.179 xG per shot (second), 0.134 xG allowed per shot (third)

The Reds continued to generate way more pictures than their opponents, however they improved their shot high quality and tamped down on the breakdowns. It produced a surprisingly straightforward league title.

One huge query: Does an offensive rebuild throw off the stability?

It was straightforward to consider final season’s run as a one-off — a considerably growing old group constructed by one other regime rolls to a title after Manchester City falls aside and Arsenal suffers the fallacious accidents on the fallacious time. Sadly for the remainder of the league, maybe, Liverpool imagined it this fashion, too. They re-signed each Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk, spent over €200 million on two of the sport’s brightest younger attackers (Wirtz and Ekitike) and inked replacements for each growing old fullback Andrew Robertson (Kerkez) and the Madrid-bound Trent (Frimpong). Additionally they continue to pursue Newcastle’s Alexander Isak.

Salah led the Premier League in targets (29) and assists (18). He loved one in all the greatest contract years we have ever seen in any sport. With Díaz and Núñez leaving (and, after all, the dying of Diogo Jota in a car crash), he’ll have a totally completely different supporting forged. He could be extra of a supporter, too, discovering fewer alternatives for himself.

Will this new attacking expertise negate Salah’s brilliance to a level? And can the attack-minded Frimpong’s presence put additional stress on the remainder of the Liverpool protection? (We should always by no means take greater than we have to from the Group Protect, however Crystal Palace averaged 0.15 xG final Sunday).

If Liverpool disappoint in 2025-26, defensive breakdowns most likely would be the trigger, although the rumored impending additions of Marc Guéhi (Crystal Palace) and Giovanni Leoni (Parma) actually present that Liverpool are trying to move that off as properly. Regardless, uncooked expertise means they begin this season the place they completed the final one: atop the league. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: second (74 factors, plus-35 purpose differential)
• Key ins: DM Martín Zubimendi (Real Sociedad, €70 million), CF Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting Lisbon, €65.8 million), RW Noni Madueke (Chelsea, €56 million), CB Cristhian Mosquera (Valencia, €15 million), DM Christian Norgaard (Brentford, €11.6 million), GK Kepa Arrizabalaga (Chelsea, €5.8 million)
• Key outs: DM Thomas Partey (Villarreal, free), LB Kieran Tierney (Celtic, free), DM Jorginho (Flamengo, free), RB Takehiro Tomiyasu (out of contract)

Key stat

In line with the transfer-value estimates from the location Transfermarkt, Arsenal have eight gamers price no less than €60 million on their present roster. Of these eight gamers, not a single one performed 90% of the Premier League minutes for Arsenal final season. William Saliba led the group’s outfield gamers with 88.9%, whereas Declan Rice performed 82.6% of the time, after which everybody else was beneath 70%: Gabriel Magalhães (69.1%), Martin Ødegaard (68%), Kai Havertz (54.8%), and Bukayo Saka (50.6%). The 2 different €60-million-plus gamers, Zubimendi and Gyokeres, weren’t on the group final 12 months.

Arsenal ought to be higher this season for one fairly easy cause: Their greatest gamers are most likely going to play at lot extra in 2025-26.

One huge query: Can Arsenal generate sufficient high quality probabilities to win the league?

After I wrote Arsenal’s preview final season, I asked the exact same question. And, properly, I am asking it once more as a result of the reply for the 2024-25 season wasn’t simply “no.” The reply was “no, and it may be even worse.”

In 2023-24, Arsenal generated 46 pictures price no less than 0.33 anticipated targets — or what the analysts Jamon Moore and Carlon Carpenter have referred to as “nice pictures.” That was sixth most within the league. In 2024-25, the variety of nice pictures dropped all the best way right down to 36:

The Gunners once more had the perfect protection within the league. They’ve allowed 63 targets over the previous two seasons — 15 fewer than another group within the league over that stretch. This can be a genuinely elite defensive aspect; for my cash, the perfect on the earth at that finish of the sector. That provides them such a excessive flooring. (See: three straight second-place finishes.) However till they determine how you can elevate their ceiling by persistently creating extra high-quality probabilities, they don’t seem to be going to win the Premier League. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: third (71 factors, plus-28 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CM Tijjani Reijnders (AC Milan, €55.0 million), LB Rayan Aït-Nouri (Wolves, €36.8 million), RW Rayan Cherki (Olympique Lyon, €36.5 million), GK James Trafford (Burnley, €31.2 million), CM Sverre Nypan (Rosenborg, €15.0 million)
• Key outs: RB Yan Couto (Bor. Dortmund, €20.0 million), DM Máximo Perrone (Como, €13.0 million), AM Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli, free), RB Kyle Walker (Burnley, free), FW Jack Grealish (Everton, season-long mortgage)

Key stat

Over the previous three seasons within the Premier League, Manchester Metropolis’s anticipated purpose differential is 0.85 targets per 90 minutes higher when Rodri is on the sector, in comparison with when he isn’t. For context, Liverpool led the league with a plus-1.15 xG differential per recreation final season, whereas no different group was north of plus-0.67. Put one other method: Metropolis completed final season with a plus-0.54 xG differential. Apply the Rodri Impact, they usually’re proper there with Liverpool in a title race.

One huge query: Uh, guys, what concerning the protection?

Final 12 months, Manchester Metropolis managed possession at the same price to what they’ve usually finished below Pep Guardiola. However they did so by actually slowing down the sport. Over the course of the season, their matches featured 2,715 possessions for every group, whereas the earlier low in Guardiola’s tenure was 2,920. Regardless of giving their opponents fewer alternatives on the ball, Metropolis allowed 356 pictures and 743 touches inside their penalty space — each method greater than the earlier highs of 301 pictures and 598 touches contained in the field below Guardiola.

The best clarification: no Rodri, and a bunch of growing old midfielders reminiscent of Ilkay Gündogan, Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo Silva. Rodri is supposedly coming again in September, however he is 29, simply had one other damage setback, and is coming off of a torn ACL. And whereas Metropolis have spent some huge cash this summer time, none of it has gone to anybody who will likely be remotely useful at shoring up the huge comfortable spot in the midst of the sector.

Except Rodri comes again totally wholesome or Guardiola finds the tactical answer he could not see in any respect final season, then the transition protection goes to be an issue for the second season in a row. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: fourth (69 factors, plus-21 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CF João Pedro (Brighton, €63.7m), LW Jamie Gittens (Borussia Dortmund, €56m), LB Jorrel Hato (Ajax, €44.2m), CF Liam Delap (Ipswich, €35.5m), RW Estêvão (Palmeiras, €34m), DM Dário Essugo (Sporting CP, €22.3m)
• Key outs: RW Noni Madueke (Arsenal, €56m), CF João Félix (Al-Nassr, €30m), GK Djordje Petrovic (Bournemouth, €28.9m), DM Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley, €28.7m), CM Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton, €28.7m), CF Armando Broja (Burnley, €23m), CM Mathis Amougou (Strasbourg, €14.5m), LB Bashir Humphreys (Burnley, €14m), GK Kepa Arrizabalaga (Arsenal, €5.8m)

Key stat

Over the previous seven seasons, the eventual Premier League champion averaged simply 2.6 main additions (which we’ll outline right here as acquisitions of €10 million or extra). Chelsea have had eight main additions this summer time, and it would not appear as if the Blues are finished wheeling and dealing on this window.

That is, after all, nothing new for Chelsea. In truth, it is a slowdown — within the first three years of BlueCo possession, the Blues averaged 11.7 main acquisitions per season. The limitless expertise churn continues. Nevertheless it brings up an apparent and very important query.

One huge query: When will they resolve the roster is prepared?

Chelsea received each the Convention League and Membership World Cup final season. Whereas that required defeating solely two groups presently within the prime 50 of the Opta power rankings (Paris Saint-Germain and Benfica), trophies elevate expectations of extra trophies, particularly once you look pretty much as good as they did against PSG.

Regardless of a spring ending funk, Cole Palmer completed with 18 targets and 13 assists in all competitions, and midfielder Moisés Caicedo started residing as much as the hype that got here along with his €116 million 2023 switch — he was first within the league in ball recoveries and prime 10 in each progressive passes and fouls suffered. Enzo Maresca established stable possession rules, and whereas further warning tamped down high-quality alternatives for each Chelsea and their opponents, it was straightforward to start out envisioning Chelsea as one thing approaching a completed product and title contender. After which the membership made 1,000,000 new strikes and shuffled the roster all over again.

Are you able to make a serious Premier League run with none semblance of stability? And can summer time wear-and-tear drag the Blues down ultimately? — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: eighth (61 factors, plus-7 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CF Charalampos Kostoulas (Olympiacos, €35.0 million), LB Maxim De Cuyper (Club Brugge, €20.0 million), LW Tom Watson (Sunderland, €12.0 million), CB Diego Coppola (Hellas Verona, €11.0 million), RW Do-young Yoon (Daejeon Hana C., €2.0 million), CB Olivier Boscagli (PSV Eindhoven, free)
• Key outs: CF João Pedro (Chelsea, €63.7 million), LW Simon Adingra (Sunderland, €24.4 million), LB Pervis Estupiñán (AC Milan, €17.0 million), CM Valentín Barco (R. Strasbourg, €10.0 million), CF Evan Ferguson (AS Roma, €3.0 million mortgage charge), GK Kjell Scherpen (Union SG, €2.0 million), RB Odeluga Offiah (Preston, €1.6 million)

Key stat

Final season, eight gamers who had been 22 or youthful initially of the season performed no less than 1,000 minutes for Brighton. Over the previous 20 Premier League seasons, just one group had extra: Chelsea, in 2023-24, with 9. And within the Premier League final season, nobody else had greater than 5.

Simply to maintain all of it constant, their supervisor, Fabian Hurzeler, is 32 — eight years youthful than any of his fellow coaches. In truth, he is a full 30 years youthful than Everton’s David Moyes, the elder statesman of Premier League managers.

One huge query: Will somebody escape?

The foremost advantage of being such a younger group: There are such a lot of gamers who can get higher, and there is an outdoor probability that everybody will get higher on the identical time. However to be clear, Brighton wants somebody to get higher if they are going to end this excessive within the desk. Final season, they completed eighth on factors, ninth on purpose differential, and tenth on anticipated purpose differential. For all of the thrilling expertise sprinkled all through the squad, this was a midtable group by each definition of the phrase.

Now, there have been some outlines of higher-level efficiency: Solely final season’s prime 4 managed extra final-third possession and solely final season’s prime 5 generated extra touches contained in the opposition penalty space. Brighton simply could not flip that territorial dominance right into a requisite stage of chance-creation dominance. Roughly, 0.5 non-penalty anticipated targets+assists is the marker of above-average attacking efficiency — and never a single Brighton participant, together with summer time exit Joao Pedro, reached that mark final season. If one in all their younger attackers, say Yankuba Minteh or Georginio Rutter, take a leap this season, all of that final-third possession ought to flip into much more targets. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: fifth (66 factors, plus-21 purpose differential)
• Key ins: RW Anthony Elanga (Nottingham Forest, €61.4m), CB Malick Thiaw (AC Milan, €40m million), CB Malick Thiaw (AC Milan, €35m), GK Aaron Ramsdale (Southampton, mortgage)
• Key outs: CB Lloyd Kelly (Juventus, €17.2m), CM Sean Longstaff (Leeds United, €13.8m)

Key stat

Alexander Isak scored 35% of Newcastle’s league targets final season and had 12% of their assists. The season begins Saturday, and we do not know if he’ll play for the group this season or, if he would not, who will change him. That appears suboptimal.

One huge query: Who scores the targets?

Till UEFA agrees {that a} author’s private comfort is a very powerful precedence and at last arranges to shut the switch window earlier than the season begins, we’ll should preserve writing previews of groups that may quickly look fully completely different.

Newcastle ended final season in pretty kind: After a sluggish begin, Eddie Howe’s Magpies produced the second-best level whole and purpose differential within the league after Dec. 7. They received the EFL Cup, too, their first trophy in 56 years. Isak produced 27 targets and 6 assists in all competitions, and regardless of an up-and-down season from Anthony Gordon, Newcastle nonetheless bought robust winger contributions due to a mixed 18 targets and 18 assists from veterans Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes.

The protection improved regardless of the group struggling a couple of extra excessive turnovers, and Newcastle entered the summer time able to spend some cash. Because the season approaches, they nonetheless have strikes to make. Liverpool each thwarted them for Ekitike and have fully unsettled Isak. This has not been the summer time they deliberate.

However Elanga is a stable addition. He recorded the highest velocity within the league final 12 months at 36.1 km/hr, in accordance with Gradient Sports (previously PFF FC), and coated the fifth-most distance by way of sprints. He’ll solely improve their counterattacking prowess, and with sturdy choices reminiscent of midfielders Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali and middle backs Dan Burn, Fabian Schär and Sven Botman (again from damage), this group’s flooring will stay greater than most. However we can’t learn about this group’s attacking potential till no less than Sept. 1. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: sixth (66 factors, plus-7 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CF Evann Guessand (OGC Nice, €30.0 million), CB Yasin Ozcan (Kasimpasa, €7.0 million)
• Key outs: RB Kaine Kesler-Hayden (Coventry, €4.0 million), DM Enzo Barrenechea (Benfica, €3.0 million mortgage charge), AM Philippe Coutinho (Vasco da Gama, free), GK Robin Olsen (Malmö FF, free)

Key stat

Over the previous eight Premier League seasons, 35 gamers have accomplished no less than 20 by balls in a season. That averages out to slightly over 4 per season, or about 0.2 per group. That’s, until you are final season’s Aston Villa.

Morgan Rogers accomplished 22 by balls final season, and Youri Tielemans landed 24 passes behind the opposition protection. Rogers, particularly, was one of the bold passers we have seen in a very long time. The six gamers aside from Rogers who accomplished no less than 20 by balls final season averaged about 1,700 tried passes between them. Rogers tried solely 907.

One huge query: Is that it?

In a summer time during which groups are spending between $60 million to $80 million on strikers who’ve by no means performed in a Huge 5 league or strikers who’ve by no means persistently scored targets, Villa’s transfer for 24-year-old Evann Guessand from Good appears to be like like one of many savvier offers of the summer time. He is simply getting into his peak years, and he is coming off a full season during which he averaged 0.51 non-penalty anticipated goals-plus-assists in a league that, regardless of its poor aggressive popularity, really interprets fairly properly to the Premier League.

It is simply … that is it. Villa have not introduced in another potential contributors, they usually additionally have not moved anybody on for important charges.

This is similar group that spent a reasonably sizable chunk of money on mortgage charges for Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Axel Disasi in January, after which proceeded to provide all of them quite a lot of enjoying time. These guys are all gone now. Other than the arrival of Guessand, a better schedule with out Champions League matches, and potential improvement from Rogers and different pre-peak-age contributors reminiscent of Amadou Onana and Jacob Ramsey, Villa nonetheless have not given themselves that many paths towards enchancment. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: ninth (56 factors, plus-12 purpose differential)
• Key ins: GK Djordje Petrovic (Chelsea, €28.9m), LB Adrien Truffert (Rennes, €13.5m)
• Key outs: CB Illia Zabarnyi (PSG, €63m), CB Dean Huijsen (Actual Madrid, €62.5m), LB Milos Kerkez (Liverpool, €46.9m)

Key stat

From Nov. 30 to Feb. 15, Bournemouth recorded the league’s third-highest level whole and purpose differential. They performed on the highest tempo, with essentially the most lively protection, and compelled a great deal of excessive turnovers. Accidents and fatigue waylaid them down the stretch, they usually misplaced three thrilling younger defenders to larger golf equipment this summer time. However for a couple of weeks, we noticed supervisor Andoni Iraola’s imaginative and prescient in full bloom.

One huge query: Do the Cherries have endurance?

Even with Zabarnyi, Huijsen and Kerkez now elsewhere, they nonetheless have pre- or early-prime gamers reminiscent of wingers Antoine Semenyo, Dango Ouattara and Marcus Tavernier, attacking midfielder Justin Kluivert, ahead Evanilson and defensive midfielder Tyler Adams. However had been accidents and fatigue unhealthy luck or just the results of trying a pedal-to-the-metal model in essentially the most demanding league within the sport?

Bournemouth have made just one main outfield addition, and whereas kids reminiscent of midfielder Alex Scott and defenders Julián Araujo and James Hill may play bigger roles, it is laborious to say that depth is best now than it was a 12 months in the past.

If there’s hope, it is that the remaining stars may nonetheless have one other gear. Semenyo did final season, as he elevated his purpose contributions whereas blossoming into one of many league’s most profitable dribblers.

Semenyo, who signed a prolonged contract extension this summer time, raised his mixed goals-and-assists whole from 10 to 16, had extra progressive carries than any attacker not named Jérémy Doku and offered extra worth along with his passing than anybody exterior of Salah/Fernandes/Saka territory. If different returnees pull a Semenyo in 2025-26, maybe the ridiculously entertaining Cherries may nonetheless transfer a bit additional up the ladder. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: seventeenth (38 factors, minus-1 purpose differential)
• Key ins: RW Mohammed Kudus (West Ham, €63.8m), CF Mathys Tel (Bayern Munich, €35m), CB Kevin Danso (Lens, €25m), CB Luka Vuskovic (Hajduk Cut up, €11m), CB Kota Takai (Kawasaki Frontale, €5.8m), DM João Palhinha (Bayern Munich, mortgage)
• Key outs: LW Son Heung-Min (LAFC, €22m), DM Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (Marseille, €13.5m)

Key stat

I’ll reuse a graphic from another piece as a result of it is one of many damnedest outlier charts you may see:

There is a stable correlation between your efficiency in shut and not-so-close video games — groups that do properly within the latter often have the ability to prevail within the former. In 21 matches determined by zero or one targets, Spurs ought to have produced about 28-30 factors; they produced eight. That is the way you play like a mid-table group on paper however end seventeenth as a substitute. Development towards the imply is sort of inevitable in 2025-26.

One huge query: What does development towards the imply seem like?

OK, Spurs ought to have been midtable. That is not adequate contemplating how a lot they spend to assemble their squad. A rebound is sort of assured? Nice, however does that imply a run on the prime 5 or, say, twelfth place?

The membership did a pleasant job of shoring up its protection, signing some high-upside middle backs with a low-risk mortgage for Palhinha. However with Son leaving and James Maddison tearing his ACL (and Dejan Kulusevski most likely out some time too), they could want way more for his or her assault than Kudus, an incredible dribbler who hasn’t contributed a lot past that, and Tel, a prospect who appears to be like the half however hasn’t but delivered.

New supervisor Thomas Frank crafted overachievement at Brentford by fast strikes, set items and a dedication to forcing opponents into low-quality pictures. How a lot will he have to vary to win in North London? — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: twelfth (53 factors, plus-0 purpose differential)
• Key ins: LB Borna Sosa (Ajax, €2.3 million), GK Walter Benítez (PSV Eindhoven, free)
• Key outs: CB Rob Holding (Colorado, free), LM Jeffrey Schlupp (Norwich, free)

Key stat

If we chop off all the matches that came about in 2024, then the highest of the Premier League would not actually change that a lot. Utilizing adjusted purpose differential (a mix of 70% targets and 30% anticipated targets), the three greatest groups in England’s prime flight had been Liverpool, Manchester Metropolis and Arsenal. However guess who was fourth?

Whereas it was stunning to see a group that completed the season in twelfth and conceded as many targets as they scored win the FA Cup, it wasn’t as stunning once you thought of Palace’s play within the second half of the season. Oliver Glasner’s aspect was genuinely top-of-the-line groups in England in 2025.

One huge query: Are they going for it?

Over the eight seasons after they had been promoted from the Championship in 2013, Crystal Palace had been outscored by 100 targets however managed to keep away from relegation by some mixture of excellent luck, Luka Milovojevic penalties, and market forces that meant Wilfried Zaha would not make more cash at any of the Champions League golf equipment he’d be adequate to start out for. However this was a largely unspectacular membership and not using a actual identification that bought by with growing old veterans enjoying out some conservative, reactive techniques.

Over the previous 4 seasons, although, they have been outscored by solely six targets, they’ve an thrilling younger supervisor in Oliver Glasner, they usually’ve carved out an identification: They’re the membership for the younger stars of the decrease leagues in England to go to in the event that they need to get Premier League enjoying time. The strategy led to an FA Cup victory and, in flip, a spot within the Convention League.

The authorized whiplash round what ought to’ve been their place within the Europa League led to what you noticed above: barely any gamers acquired or despatched away. However with all of that sorted out, Palace now face the query that comes for any group that escapes the relegation battle and finds some success greater up the desk: Do you money in on the gamers who bought you there? Or do you spend some cash and attempt to win a trophy or sneak into the Champions League in some way? — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: Fifteenth (42 factors, minus-10 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CF Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig, €76.5 million), RW Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford, €75.0 million), AM Matheus Cunha (Wolves, €74.2 million), LB Diego León (Cerro Porteño, €4.0 million)
• Key outs: LW Marcus Rashford (Barcelona, mortgage), CB Victor Lindelöf (contract expired), CM Christian Eriksen (contract expired), CB Jonny Evans (retired)

Key stat

The corporate Gradient tracks quite a lot of new contextual statistics. Certainly one of them is the variety of pictures a participant takes when there’s a greater passing choice accessible. Final season, Cunha led the league with 57 pictures when a greater choice was accessible, whereas his new teammate Bruno Fernandes ranked fourth with 44.

Enjoying for Brentford, a membership extra obsessive about shot high quality than another on the earth, Mbeumo nonetheless managed to take 29 pictures with a greater choice accessible — tied for twelfth most within the league. And whereas we do not have entry to Bundesliga information, Sesko’s common distance from purpose on his pictures with RB Leipzig was 17.3 yards — an eighth-percentile mark amongst all forwards throughout Europe’s Huge 5 leagues.

One huge query: A midfielder? Any midfielder?

United have fully revamped their ahead line with Cunha, Mbuemo and Sesko. And whereas there are main questions round both the age profiles, manufacturing profiles, or each, for all three of these gamers, this group scored 44 targets final season — greater than solely Everton and the three relegated sides. They should rating extra targets.

However they now head into the season with Fernandes, Manuel Ugarte, Kobbie Mainoo and Casemiro as their 4 senior-level midfielders. Maybe midfield depth is not as necessary in a system like Ruben Amorim’s that makes use of solely two fairly than the extra widespread midfield three. However there are key questions on all 4 of these gamers. Fernandes is de facto an attacking midfielder, not somebody you possibly can depend on as a part of a midfield two. Ugarte struggled to do something aside from hit folks final season. At 20, Mainoo continues to be a tertiary participant who’s most impactful across the field. And Casemiro is 33, sliding headfirst down the age curve.

At a time when all the greatest groups on the earth have invested closely in younger, cell, bodily midfield expertise, United have checked out that a part of the sector and largely simply shrugged. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: seventh (65 factors, plus-12 purpose differential)
• Key ins: RW Dan Ndoye (Bologna, €42m), CF Igor Jesus (Botafogo, €19m), CB Jair Cunha (Botafogo, €12m)
• Key outs: RW Anthony Elanga (Newcastle, €61.4m), DM Danilo (Botafogo, €23m), LW Ramón Sosa (Palmeiras, €12.5m)

Key stat

Forest scored 58 targets from pictures price 46.6. That is an overachievement of 11.4 targets, simply essentially the most within the league. However the magic ran out in April: Scoring eight targets from pictures price 8.6 xG, Forest took solely eight factors from their final eight matches and tumbled from third to seventh within the desk.

One huge query: What occurs when Chris Wooden comes again to earth?

I mentioned Forest overachieved above, however most of it got here from 33-year-old Chris Wood, who scored 20 targets, 10 of which gave Forest the lead. However these targets got here from pictures price simply 13.4 xG, which means he overachieved by 49%. His profession xG overachievement was virtually precisely +0.0% earlier than final season, which suggests this heater will likely be laborious to duplicate, particularly with the departure of Elanga, who assisted 5 of these targets.

Elanga’s substitute, Dan Ndoye, is a superb particular person participant who drew essentially the most fouls in Serie A final season, and Forest fended off Tottenham Hotspur to carry onto Morgan Gibbs-White (seven targets, eight assists). However their assault was based mostly on a selected recipe that may not be replicable.

This could nonetheless be a good group. Nuno Espirito Santo’s group added defensive depth with the 6-foot-6 Cunha, who was excellent within the Membership World Cup, and their normal “muddle the field and counterattack” recipe has labored for well-executing groups for ages. (So has “be actually good on set items.”) However they’re including Europa League play to the docket and possibly already did not have sufficient depth. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: eleventh (54 factors, plus-0 purpose differential)
• Key ins: GK Benjamin Lecomte (Montpellier, €0.5 million)
• Key outs: CF Carlos Vinícius (Grêmio, free), LW Willian (contract expired)

Key stat

As measured by the group’s common age weighted by minutes performed, Fulham had been the oldest group within the Premier League final season, with a mean age of 28.1 years. That quantity was really barely down from the season earlier than, once they had been additionally the oldest group within the league, simply with a mean age of 28.4 years. Fulham have settled into a really good league-average maintain over the previous three seasons — 164 targets scored, 168 conceded — however they’ve to show this roster over in some unspecified time in the future.

One huge query: Do you actually need to let Rodrigo Muniz go?

Over the previous two seasons, Rodrigo Muniz has been extremely constant and efficient. In 2023-24, he put up 0.61 non-penalty anticipated targets plus assists per 90 minutes. And final season? You bought it: 0.61 non-penalty anticipated targets plus assists per 90 minutes. That will’ve been the Fifteenth-best mark within the league final season … if he’d performed sufficient.

However the 24-year-old performed solely 964 minutes after that includes in 1,500-plus the season earlier than. On condition that he is simply getting into his prime and he nonetheless hasn’t began video games for a full season, there’s one fairly apparent method that Fulham may out of the blue get rather a lot higher — and rather a lot youthful — subsequent season. Besides, it appears as if the membership is contemplating letting him change golf equipment within the closing weeks of the switch window. In the event that they do, their center-forward choices will likely be 34-year-old Raul Jimenez … and no one else. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: tenth (56 factors, plus-9 purpose differential)
• Key ins: AM Antoni Milambo (Feyenoord, €20m), RB Michael Kayode (Fiorentina, €17.5m), GK Caoimhin Kelleher (Liverpool, €14.8m), DM Jordan Henderson (Ajax, free switch)
• Key outs: RW Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United, €75m), DM Christian Norgaard (Arsenal, €11.6m), GK Mark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen, €10m)

Key stat

Brentford ranked first in xG per shot final season (0.18) and first in xG allowed per shot (0.13). They tried fewer pictures than opponents, however they took all the great ones. The affect of analytics has mainly turned basketball right into a dunks-and-3-pointers recreation, and essentially the most analytics-friendly group in England has mainly crafted a dunks-and-3s recreation for itself.

One huge query: Can Brentford preserve Brentfording regardless of who leaves?

In 4 Premier League seasons, the Bees have completed between ninth and sixteenth every time. With their set piece glory and distinctive model of play, they’re turning into EPL mainstays. Or no less than, they did earlier than they misplaced supervisor Thomas Frank (Spurs), star Mbeumo (Manchester United) and captain Norgaard (Arsenal). What occurs now?

Set piece coach Keith Andrews was so good at his job — and Brentford is so assured in its course of — that Andrews was promoted to interchange Frank. It is secure to say they will proceed to dominate set items and stop high-quality alternatives, which ought to be sufficient to avoid wasting them from a relegation battle.

However whereas ahead Yoane Wissa may run a stable assault, it seems he is pushing for a transfer to Newcastle or Liverpool and won’t be in a Brentford shirt when the window closes. That will imply they’d return just one participant with greater than 5 targets final season (Kevin Schade) and one with greater than 4 assists (Mikkel Damsgaard). That will undoubtedly make this a “simply survive” season. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: thirteenth (48 factors, minus-2 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CF Thierno Barry (Villarreal, €30.0 million), CM Kiernan Dewsbury-Corridor (Chelsea, €28.7 million), CM Carlos Alcaraz (Flamengo, €15.0 million), LB Adam Aznou (Bayern Munich, €9.0 million), GK Mark Travers (Bournemouth, €4.6 million), FW Jack Grealish (Man Metropolis, seasonlong mortgage)
• Key outs: CF Neal Maupay (Marseille, €4.0 million), CB Mason Holgate (Al-Gharafa, free), GK João Virgínia (Sporting CP, free), RB Ashley Younger (Ipswich, free), GK Asmir Begovic (Leicester, free), CF Dominic Calvert-Lewin (contract expired), AM Abdoulaye Doucouré (contract expired)

Key stat

Ten gamers began no less than half of the Premier League video games for Everton final season. And 40% of these gamers have left the group — for nothing. Abdoulaye Doucoure (31 begins), Ashley Younger (19 begins), and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (19 begins) had been all allowed to depart after their contracts expired, whereas Jack Harrison (24 begins) has returned to Leeds after their promotion and his two-year mortgage to Everton.

Throw within the departures of loanees Jesper Lindstrom (15 begins) and Orel Mangala (15 begins), and the group that takes the sector at Hill Dickinson Stadium goes to be fairly completely different from the one which wrapped up the ultimate season at Goodison Park.

One huge query: Is there one thing we do not learn about Thierno Barry?

This previous season, there was one gigantic, 6-foot-5 striker who put up incredible numbers in his age-21 season — and it wasn’t Benjamin Sesko. It was Thierno Barry:

Amongst gamers 21 and below who performed no less than 2,000 minutes this previous season, solely 4 produced greater than Barry’s 0.6 non-penalty anticipated targets plus assists per 90 minutes: PSG’s Bradley Barcola, Strasbourg’s Emmanuel Emeagha, Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal and Manchester Metropolis’s Rayan Cherki.

Barcola would require a nine-figure switch charge to accumulate, Emeagha performs for what is basically Chelsea’s farm group, Yamal could be the perfect teenage soccer participant ever, and Cherki simply moved to Manchester Metropolis. In some way, Everton acquired the most efficient, accessible 21-and-under participant in Europe for simply €30 million. Additionally, Barry did this in La Liga. That is the hardest league exterior of England.

With David Moyes and new possession seemingly eradicating Everton from relegation fears, Barry is the form of good-and-maybe-soon-great participant at a premium place who may push Everton up the desk — or result in a windfall and assets for a bigger roster overhaul a few years down the road. — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: sixteenth (42 factors, minus-15 purpose differential)
• Key ins: RW Fer Lopez (Celta Vigo, €23m), RW Jhon Arias (Fluminense, €17m), LB David Moller Wolfe (AZ Alkmaar, €12m)
• Key outs: CF Matheus Cunha (Manchester United, €74.2m), LB Rayan Aït-Nouri (Manchester Metropolis, €36.8m), LW Goncalo Guedes (Actual Sociedad, €4m), RB Nélson Semedo (Fenerbahce, free switch), RW Pablo Sarabia (Al-Arabi SC, free switch)

Key stat

After Vitor Pereira was employed final December, Wolves had been an virtually completely league-average group, ending tenth in factors per recreation (1.5) with a plus-1 purpose differential and middle-of-the-road stats in most classes. The one place they actually stood out? Floor duels. They received extra of them than anybody within the league, they usually suffered the third-most fouls (and received a lot of free kicks) due to it. However two of their three main duelists — Ait-Nouri and Cunha — are gone.

One huge query: What are they good at?

After a cool begin to the season during which each they and their opponents overachieved dramatically in opposition to their xG numbers, Wolves certainly stabilized below Pereira. However their assault was beneath common by way of each shot high quality and shot amount — unsustainably superior ending from Cunha and Jorgen Strand Larsen helped to beat that — they usually weren’t practically aggressive sufficient defensively to justify their random defensive catastrophes (they ranked nineteenth in xG allowed per shot below Pereira).

Strand Larsen and aggressive (and infrequently efficient) midfielder João Gomes return, however changing Cunha and Ait-Nouri with both unproven (Lopez and Wolfe) or unspectacular (Arias) choices is slightly bit scary. Wolves had been properly above relegation territory final season, nevertheless it’s laborious to make the case that this group is best in any space, and if regression strikes within the ending division, Wolves could be close to the highest of the Susceptible Incumbents listing. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: 14th (43 factors, minus-16 purpose differential)
• Key ins: CB Jean-Clair Todibo (OGC Good, €40.0 million), LM El Hadji Malick Diouf (Slavia Prague, €22.0 million), GK Mads Hermansen (Leicester, €20.8 million), RB Kyle Walker-Peters (Southampton, free), CF Callum Wilson (Newcastle, free)
• Key outs: RW Mohammed Kudus (Tottenham, €63.8 million), RB Vladimír Coufal (TSG Hoffenheim, free), LB Aaron Cresswell (Stoke Metropolis, free), CB Kurt Zouma (contract expired), CF Danny Ings (contract expired), CF Michail Antonio (contract expired), GK Lukasz Fabianski (contract expired)

Key stat

Final season, Kudus averaged 0.35 non-penalty anticipated targets plus assists per 90 minutes. Amongst gamers who performed no less than one-third of their group’s minutes, that ranked 71st within the Premier League. He turned these pictures and probabilities into 0.28 non-penalty targets+assists per 90 minutes, which ranked 87th within the Premier League. West Ham bought €63.8 million in change for his switch to Tottenham.

One huge query: Can Graham Potter get one thing extra out of this roster?

Whereas the morale appeared to enhance after Potter changed Julen Lopetegui halfway by the season, that was about it. Here is how the group in contrast below the 2 managers:

Lopetegui: 1.2 factors per recreation, minus-0.6 purpose differential/recreation, minus-0.28 xG differential/recreation
Potter: 1.1 factors/recreation, minus-0.1 purpose differential/recreation, minus-0.28 xG differential/recreation

Lopetegui really bought barely higher outcomes, the video games had been a lot nearer below Potter, however by way of creating and stopping probabilities, it was virtually the very same below the 2 managers. If we strip out penalties, then Potter’s xG differential improves to minus-0.24, and Lopetegui’s drops to minus-0.4. That is an enchancment, nevertheless it nonetheless can be the worst mark within the league among the many nonrelegated sides.

Below Potter, the protection improved considerably by nearly each metric, however that was paired with a really sluggish and conservative assault. In truth, the sluggish and conservative assault is a part of what made the protection higher. So, that is the key problem in his first full season in cost: Can West Ham keep the second-half defensive enchancment whereas discovering a option to try greater than 10 pictures per recreation? — O’Hanlon

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• Final season’s end: first within the English Championship (100 factors, plus-65 purpose differential), automated promotion
• Key ins: DM Anton Stach (Hoffenheim, €20m), CB Jaka Bijol (Udinese, €18m), GK Lucas Perri (Lyon, €16m), CM Sean Longstaff (Newcastle, €13.8m), LB Gabriel Gudmundsson (Lille, €11.6m), CB Sebastiaan Bornauw (Wolfsburg, €6m), CF Lukas Nmecha (Wolfsburg, free switch)
• Key outs: RB Rasmus Kristensen (Eintracht Frankfurt, €6m), LB Junior Firpo (Real Betis, free switch), CF Mateo Joseph (Mallorca, mortgage), CF Joe Gelhardt (Hull Metropolis, mortgage)

Key stat

Leeds generated 100 factors and a plus-65 purpose differential within the Championship final season. They had been most likely the perfect second-division group since 2005-06 Studying (106 factors, plus-67). Will that matter in a world during which promoted groups all instantly go proper again down?

One huge query: What does a promoted group have to do to remain up?

After struggling relegation in 2023, Leeds simply stored more-or-less spending like a Premier League group and held onto quite a lot of key gamers. It paid off: After practically incomes promotion once more in 2024, they did so with relative ease final spring.

Now comes the laborious half. Parachute funds have allowed not too long ago relegated groups to yo-yo again up, however the previous six promoted groups (and 10 of the previous 15) have all been despatched proper again down. Leeds seem like essentially the most well-suited to buck the pattern, and supervisor Daniel Farke actually has expertise relating to constructing a enjoyable identification and making an attempt to maintain a not too long ago promoted group up. (Notice: I mentioned making an attempt.) You are not going to tilt the pitch and dominate possession in opposition to Premier League groups — simply ask Vincent Kompany’s 2022-23 Burnley — so Leeds most likely must determine how you can get by with defensive group and random bursts of high quality attacking. Will it’s sufficient? — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: fourth within the English Championship (76 factors, plus-14 purpose differential), promoted by way of playoff
• Key ins: CM Habib Diarra (Strasbourg, €31.5m), LW Simon Adingra (Brighton, €24.4m), CM Enzo Le Fée (Roma, €23m), RW Chemsdine Talbi (Membership Brugge, €20m), CM Noah Sadiki (Union Saint-Gilloise, €17m), DM Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen, €15m), GK Robin Roefs (NEC Nijmegen, €10.5m), LB Reinildo Mandava (Atletico Madrid, free switch), LB Arthur Masuaku (Besiktas, free switch), CF Marc Guiu (Chelsea, mortgage)
• Key outs: CM Jobe Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund, €30.5m), LW Tom Watson (Brighton, €12m)

Key stat

Here is a quantity for you: 40,704. That is Sunderland’s common attendance final 12 months. It was first within the Championship and would have slotted them proper into the highest 10 within the Premier League. It is good to have you ever again for no less than a 12 months, Black Cats.

One huge query: What extra may they’ve finished this summer time?

Sunderland had been worse than Leeds or Burnley final season, however additionally they performed with extra of an underdog model that was much less reliant on ball domination. That could be extra more likely to translate. They had been third within the Championship in counterattacks and fouls suffered, first in ball recoveries, second in defensive interventions, second in progressive carries and third in progressive passes. Below Regis Le Bris, they ran laborious and ran rather a lot.

The membership did in addition to it may so as to add depth, plucking primarily from golf equipment identified to develop younger expertise properly. Throw in a lift of veteran management from Xhaka and Mandava, and this was a splendidly logical offseason. Their reward for mentioned logic: the second-worst odds of relegation (-250 per ESPN BET, equal to a 71% probability). It will be nice to know that good funding and a enjoyable enjoying model had been sufficient to really stick within the Premier League. Would not appear possible, although. — Connelly

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• Final season’s end: second within the English Championship (100 factors, plus-53 purpose differential), automated promotion
• Key ins: DM Lesley Ugochukwu (Chelsea, €28.7 million), CF Armando Broja (Chelsea, €23.0 million), RW Loum Tchaouna (Lazio, €15.2 million), LB Bashir Humphreys (Chelsea, €14.0 million), RW Marcus Edwards (Sporting CP, €10.0 million), LW Jaidon Anthony (Bournemouth, €9.5 million), LB Quilindschy Hartman (Feyenoord, €9.0 million), CF Zian Flemming (Millwall, €8.3 million), LW Jacob Bruun Larsen (VfB Stuttgart, €4.0 million), GK Max Weiß (Karlsruher SC, €4.0 million), RB Axel Tuanzebe (Ipswich, free), RB Kyle Walker (Man Metropolis, free), GK Martin Dúbravka (Newcastle, free)
• Key outs: GK James Trafford (Man Metropolis, €31.2 million), CM Han-Noah Massengo (FC Augsburg, €3.0 million), LW Dara Costelloe (Wigan, €0.4 million)

Key stat

Excluding loans, per Transfermarkt information, Burnley have introduced in 13 new gamers this offseason — two greater than another Premier League aspect. They’ve additionally spent €125.65 million on switch charges — greater than all however seven different groups within the league. In contrast to final time they had been promoted, once they introduced in virtually solely pre-peak-age gamers, quite a lot of this summer time’s signings are of their primes or, like Kyle Walker, properly past these years between 24 and 28.

One huge query: Can these 13 gamers make up for the lack of James Trafford?

The principle cause Burnley had been promoted final season is that their opponents transformed their pictures into targets at an traditionally low price. The location FBref has superior information for 17 skilled leagues, extending again to someplace between 2017 and 2019 for each. Final season, Burnley’s opponents scored a freakishly low 16 targets throughout 46 video games. However these 16 targets got here from probabilities conceded price 39.1 xG. That hole of 23.1 targets is the second-biggest in the whole dataset behind Millwall within the Championship in 2021-22.

And properly, the largest cause why Burnley had been capable of preserve dodging bullets? He now performs for Manchester Metropolis. Per Stats Carry out’s post-shot anticipated targets mannequin, Trafford saved 12.6 targets price of pictures when in comparison with what the common keeper can be anticipated to do in the identical state of affairs.

Now, Trafford’s shot-stopping efficiency is a once-in-every-couple-years-type of factor, and it nonetheless barely accounts for half of Burnley’s overperformance in opposition to their anticipated targets conceded. Their efficiency was already more likely to regress closely — after which they misplaced their greatest participant and bought bumped up into essentially the most aggressive league on the earth. — O’Hanlon