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Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
With three weeks left within the 2024 regular season, the NFL playoff picture is unusually settled. Seven groups have clinched postseason berths — three within the NFC and 4 within the AFC — leaving seven spots up for grabs.
Which groups will fill these spots? Primarily based on 10,000 simulations utilizing ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to simulate the end to the season, there have been 4,393 distinctive combos of playoff groups and seeds. The main target under, nonetheless, is on one particular situation: chalk.
The ESPN FPI mannequin produced the exact set of groups and seeds more than likely to happen. This situation is not all that doubtless as the precise seeds for the 14 groups under occurred in 73 simulations. That is lower than 1% however is extra doubtless than some other mixture. Individually, the AFC seeds under have an 11% probability to happen, and the NFC seeds have a 6% probability.
From the set of simulations that yielded the chalk playoff area, I selected one at random to point out the way it all performed out — within the common season and past. Once I did this train a year ago, the simulation appropriately recognized the individuals and outcome for each convention championship video games and the Super Bowl.
Can this situation match that? Welcome to simulation No. 812. That is how the remainder of the 2024 NFL season might unfold:
Soar to:
Scores projections by week: 16 | 17 | 18
Last standings: AFC | NFC
The playoffs: Who will win Super Bowl LIX?
Projected Week 16 scores
DEN-LAC: Chargers 22, Broncos 20
HOU-KC: Chiefs 28, Texans 24
PIT-BAL: Steelers 30, Ravens 24
NYG-ATL: Falcons 33, Giants 30
NE-BUF: Payments 19, Patriots 8
DET-CHI: Lions 28, Bears 22
CLE-CIN: Browns 33, Bengals 30
TEN-IND: Colts 24, Titans 9
LAR-NYJ: Jets 16, Rams 13
PHI-WSH: Commanders 20, Eagles 17
ARI-CAR: Panthers 17, Cardinals 16
MIN-SEA: Seahawks 30, Vikings 20
JAX-LV: Jaguars 24, Raiders 16
SF-MIA: 49ers 24, Dolphins 14
TB-DAL: Buccaneers 21, Cowboys 14
NO-GB: Packers 27, Saints 24
What occurred: Essentially the most essential end in Week 16 got here within the AFC North rivalry sport between the Steelers and Ravens. Contemporary off a loss to the Eagles, Pittsburgh acquired off the mat and took down Baltimore. Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson as soon as once more created explosive performs downfield, locking up the AFC North for Pittsburgh and relegating the Ravens to a wild-card berth.
In a battle between doubtless AFC wild-card groups, the Chargers narrowly topped the Broncos, giving Los Angeles the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver. That might show essential in avoiding the Payments (or Chiefs) within the playoffs.
Elsewhere, the Commanders difficult the Eagles’ quest for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. That was a part of a banner week for the Lions, who strengthened their maintain on the highest spot with a win over the Bears and the Vikings getting upset by the Seahawks. Seattle’s win, coupled with a Rams loss to the Jets, put the Seahawks again in first place within the NFC West. Two extra weeks to go.
Projected Week 17 scores
KC-PIT: Steelers 20, Chiefs 17
BAL-HOU: Texans 34, Ravens 14
SEA-CHI: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
NYJ-BUF: Payments 25, Jets 24
GB-MIN: Vikings 24, Packers 16
LV-NO: Raiders 24, Saints 7
CAR-TB: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 3
TEN-JAX: Jaguars 27, Titans 14
DAL-PHI: Cowboys 17, Eagles 10
DEN-CIN: Broncos 34, Bengals 20
ARI-LAR: Rams 17, Cardinals 10
LAC-NE: Patriots 45, Chargers 14
IND-NYG: Giants 31, Colts 14
ATL-WSH: Falcons 26, Commanders 15
MIA-CLE: Dolphins 21, Browns 13
DET-SF: Lions 38, 49ers 31
What occurred: The Chiefs put their maintain on the AFC’s No. 1 seed in danger, shedding to the Steelers whereas the Payments (barely) took care of enterprise towards the Jets. That put Buffalo inside one sport of Kansas Metropolis with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, that means the Payments might snag the highest seed in Week 18 with a win over the Patriots and a Kansas Metropolis loss to the Broncos.
The Falcons, led by new beginning quarterback Michael Penix Jr., upset the Commanders to maintain the stress on the Buccaneers within the NFC South, however Tampa Bay responded with a dismantling of the Panthers.
And the Rams and Seahawks each received by a landing over the Cardinals and Bears, respectively, establishing a Week 18 showdown at SoFi Stadium for the NFC West crown.
Projected Week 18 scores
CAR-ATL: Panthers 31, Falcons 10
WSH-DAL: Commanders 27, Cowboys 24
KC-DEN: Chiefs 33, Broncos 27
MIN-DET: Lions 30, Vikings 21
CHI-GB: Packers 10, Bears 3
HOU-TEN: Titans 31, Texans 28
JAX-IND: Jaguars 20, Colts 9
LAC-LV: Chargers 34, Raiders 20
SEA-LAR: Rams 16, Seahawks 7
BUF-NE: Payments 45, Patriots 15
MIA-NYJ: Dolphins 30, Jets 17
NYG-PHI: Eagles 34, Giants 17
SF-ARI: 49ers 19, Cardinals 10
CIN-PIT: Bengals 23, Steelers 7
NO-TB: Buccaneers 27, Saints 13
CLE-BAL: Ravens 36, Browns 10
What occurred: The Chiefs held on to the No. 1 seed … by a thread. With the Payments obliterating the Patriots 45-15, Kansas Metropolis wanted to beat Denver. It got here all the way down to the wire, with the ball in Bo Nix‘s hand down six factors on the ultimate drive. However the Chiefs acquired the cease they wanted, holding on for a win to earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
The Bucs clinched the NFC South for the fourth season in a row, cruising to a victory over the Saints. They did not must win to seize the division title, although, because the Falcons misplaced to the Panthers in a shock blowout to finish Atlanta’s playoff hopes.
Within the battle for the NFC West title and the one playoff spot out of the division, the Rams beat the Seahawks in a defensive battle. Los Angeles grew to become the primary workforce in NFL historical past to achieve the postseason in back-to-back years regardless of being three video games underneath .500 at one level, per ESPN Analysis.
1:01
May Lions’ accidents be a knockout blow to their Tremendous Bowl possibilities?
Jeff Saturday explains why the Lions’ accidents are a devastating blow to their Tremendous Bowl possibilities.
Projecting the AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
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8. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-10)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11)
12. New York Jets (5-12)
13. Tennessee Titans (4-13)
14. Cleveland Browns (4-13)
15. New England Patriots (4-13)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Chiefs grasp on to No. 1 seed: Kansas Metropolis weathered the storm of a Patrick Mahomes ankle harm, a loss to the Steelers and a red-hot Payments workforce simply behind them to clinch that essential No. 1 seed. It turned out it took each a kind of wild Chiefs finishes — from Isaiah Likely‘s toe being barely out of bounds in Week 1 to the blocked area purpose try towards the Broncos in Week 10 to Aidan O’Connell‘s fumble within the remaining seconds on Black Friday — to get that high spot.
Ravens get well to earn No. 5 seed: After the Steelers slammed the door shut on the Ravens within the AFC North, Baltimore needed to set its sights on a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup on wild-card weekend. However that grew to become an actual query as soon as the Ravens misplaced to the Texans in Week 17. They recovered in Week 18, beating the Browns handily for a 10-win season and the 5-seed through head-to-head wins over the Chargers and Broncos. With that, the Ravens have been set to face the weaker Texans (versus the Payments or Steelers) within the playoffs and retained an out of doors shot at a house sport down the road.
Chargers, Broncos spherical out AFC playoff area: On this situation, the Chargers and Broncos each completed 10-7 (together with the Ravens), however the Chargers acquired the 6-seed through head-to-head tiebreaker by beating the Broncos twice. That units up the Chargers to face the Steelers within the wild-card spherical, whereas the Broncos should journey to Buffalo.
Projecting the NFC
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
6. Green Bay Packers (12-5)
7. Washington Commanders (11-6)
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8. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
10. San Francisco 49ers (8-9)
11. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
12. Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-12)
14. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
15. Chicago Bears (4-13)
16. New York Giants (3-14)
Lions coast to No. 1 seed: Although it seems to be questionable proper now due to injuries, Detroit’s maintain on the 1-seed rapidly grew stronger in simulation No. 812, when it received in Week 16 whereas its two rivals for the highest spot — Minnesota and Philadelphia — misplaced. The highway to the Tremendous Bowl within the NFC will run by Ford Discipline.
Buccaneers keep scorching, win NFC South: The Baker Mayfield present rumbled on, with the Buccaneers closing out the common season on a seven-game successful streak. The Falcons wanted to win out and for the Bucs to drop a sport, however neither occurred.
Rams take NFC West in remaining sport of standard season: With the Seahawks and Rams battling for a division title and the only NFC West playoff spot, the league moved their Week 18 matchup into the Sunday night time spot. The nation watched as Jared Verse, Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske acquired after Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, giving the Rams a win to maintain their season alive because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Commanders earn wild-card berth: Outdoors the NFC West, a lot of the NFC area was settled heading into Week 16. The Commanders nonetheless had some enterprise to maintain to safe their postseason spot, beating the Eagles and Cowboys within the remaining three weeks to complete with 11 wins and the 7-seed.
Giants earn No. 1 total choose: Extremely, all the highest No. 1 choose contenders — the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars and Panthers — received a minimum of one in every of their remaining three video games. That left the Giants and Raiders because the lone three-win groups. On this simulation, the Giants received the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker to land the highest choose within the 2025 draft.
What to anticipate within the playoffs
Projected wild-card matchups:
Broncos (7) at Payments (2)
Chargers (6) at Steelers (3)
Ravens (5) at Texans (4)
Commanders (7) at Eagles (2)
Packers (6) at Buccaneers (3)
Vikings (5) at Rams (4)
Who goes all the best way? Keep in mind that this can be a single simulation. The chalk a part of this train ended on the common season and from there, it is pure (weighted) randomness. I nonetheless needed to know the way it pans out, although, and I am guessing you do, too.
Within the AFC, the Payments and Steelers received their residence wild-card video games, however the Ravens went on the highway and beat the Texans in a slender 27-24 contest. The No. 5 seed additionally received within the NFC, with the Vikings beating the Rams. Elsewhere, the Buccaneers beat the Packers, and the Eagles barely acquired by the Commanders 30-28.
Within the divisional spherical, favorites reigned … with one exception. The Ravens beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead 27-7, ending Kansas Metropolis’s hopes of a three-peat. The Eagles beat the Bucs by two touchdowns, and the Payments and Lions acquired previous the Steelers and Vikings, respectively, in one-score video games.
The AFC Championship Recreation was a good, back-and-forth affair between the 2 MVP leaders, however Josh Allen and the Payments prevailed 24-23 to go to the Tremendous Bowl for the primary time in 31 years. Within the NFC, the Lions’ protection shut down A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and the Eagles in a 23-10 win to safe the franchise’s first Tremendous Bowl berth.
Projected Tremendous Bowl LIX matchup: Buffalo (2) vs. Detroit (1)
Identical to within the Week 15 showdown between the Payments and Lions, Buffalo acquired out to a two-score lead and by no means gave it up. Using an unbelievable speeding efficiency from Allen and elite play from their secondary, the Payments beat the Lions 27-13 to win their first Tremendous Bowl title.
ESPN’s Hank Gargiulo contributed to this report.
