Projecting the 2026 College Football Playoff bracket

One cycle ends, the following one begins. The circle of life and whatnot. With the 2025 school soccer season within the books, we now transfer on to 2026. Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 is out, so it is time for the following step within the predictions course of: Let’s discuss who will make the College Football Playoff.

Granted, we extremely do not know for certain what subsequent yr’s CFP will look like for sure — hey, you may’t rush this stuff, we’d solely want one other three or 4 years of debates in fancy resort ballrooms earlier than reaching an apparent reply. Since, nevertheless, a 12-team playoff has turned out to be lots of enjoyable, we stick to 12 for some time longer. If we merely used Schlabach’s rankings for this train, we would be a 12-team area resembling this:

First spherical

• 9 Ole Miss at 8 Miami (winner performs 1 Indiana)

• 12 ???* at 5 Oregon (winner performs 4 Georgia)

• 11 BYU at 6 Ohio State (winner performs 3 Notre Dame)

• 10 Texas A&M at 7 Texas Tech (winner performs 2 Texas)

(* There was no Group of 5 consultant in Schlabach’s listing as, between the teaching carousel and the expertise drain that’s the switch portal, there is no apparent standout within the pool.)

By way of expectations, that is a wonderfully sound place to start out. However this sport likes to scoff at best-laid plans generally — simply ask Texas (No. 2 on Schlabach’s listing final January), Penn State (No. 3), Clemson (No. 7), LSU (No. 8) and South Carolina (No. 10). We get lots of issues proper, however this sport nonetheless units us as much as whiff loads. Protecting expectations in thoughts, then, let’s discuss how this race will actually go. Every convention title race brings sure guidelines to the desk; for that matter, so do the battles for at-large bids and the Group of 5 auto bid.

So here is what we’ll do: As a substitute of merely “Who’re one of the best groups on paper?” we’ll create some guidelines, some old-school heuristics, to information us by way of exactly how this CFP race will play out. I loved this train last year; certain, it appropriately predicted solely 4 of 12 playoff groups, however hey, utilizing the Manner-Too-Early solely predicted three! These items’s laborious! And final yr’s guidelines do not even have to vary that a lot.

Large Ten champion

The rule: It will likely be gained by one of the best crew not named Ohio State.

We’ll begin with the convention that has produced the previous three nationwide champions. Ohio State gained the nationwide title in 2024 and spent most of 2025 at No. 1, however the Buckeyes extremely have not gained a convention title since 2020 (after they gained their fourth in a row). Michigan managed to get its nostril in entrance and win three straight (2021-23), and whereas the Wolverines faltered in 2024, they nonetheless stored Ohio State out of the title recreation with a late-season upset. And in 2025, it was Indiana’s flip to surpass school soccer’s most persistently sturdy program.

As a result of I do not decide in opposition to a streak, as an instance we’re a sixth straight non-Buckeyes champ in 2026. Per Schlabach, the almost certainly title candidates are No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon, with a drop right down to No. 13 USC, No. 16 Iowa, No. 18 Michigan and No. 19 Washington. Oregon must be dynamite, I am truthfully very inquisitive about USC, and Iowa was a sequence of gut-wrenching shut losses from an impressive season. However we’ll preserve issues easy right here.

The decide: Indiana. I am making an attempt this new factor the place I do not underestimate Indiana, so let’s go together with the Hoosiers. We do not but know the place school soccer’s biggest turnaround story will finish, and Curt Cignetti has already landed his subsequent set of key veteran transfers in guys like quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU), operating again Turbo Richard (Boston Faculty) and receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State). To illustrate for now that IU’s run continues.

SEC champion

The rule: It needs to be gained by both Kirby Sensible (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Sensible (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).

This was the rule final yr, and Sensible’s Georgia backed it up with a 3rd title in 4 seasons. With as a lot as school soccer may need modified in recent times, the Bulldogs stay the ultimate boss within the Southeastern Convention, and it is proved very tough to knock them off their perch.

With Nick Saban now two seasons into retirement, there aren’t many SEC head coaches who’ve proved they will take down the large dangerous from Athens. Actually, there are solely three: Ole Miss’ Pete Golding (whose Rebels gained an exciting 2025 CFP quarterfinal), Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer (who has all types of holes to fill in Tuscaloosa however has overwhelmed Georgia twice in three tries) and, after all, LSU’s Lane Kiffin (whose Ole Miss crew beat the Dawgs in 2024).

Texas is likely to be No. 2 within the Manner-Too-Early, however Steve Sarkisian remains to be making an attempt to determine the right way to clear the Georgia hurdle. The one semi-cohesive logic I can pull from his hire of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is Muschamp’s data of Georgia’s interior workings (he has spent the previous 5 seasons fulfilling numerous roles in Athens); it may possibly’t be his observe report, as he hasn’t produced an elite protection as a solo coordinator since 2009. The world has modified only a bit since then. For now, the Longhorns are ineligible, and the one groups that may win the convention are due to this fact Manner-Too-Early No. 4 Georgia, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 15 LSU or No. 21 Bama.

The decide: Georgia. Whereas I’ve fairly a number of questions concerning the Dawgs’ offensive upside in 2026, I’ve only a few questions on a protection that shifted right into a uncommon gear late in 2025 — CFP loss apart — and returns burgeoning stars like linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson and nook Ellis Robinson IV. Their ceiling stays excessive, and a Sensible crew will all the time know the right way to brawl. We’ll say the Dawgs win a 3rd straight title.

Large 12 champion

The rule: Both flip the shut video games round … or go together with the cash.

I used to be each proper and improper concerning the Large 12 in final yr’s CFP projections. On one hand, I nailed Utah’s turnaround — the Utes had fallen to 5-7 in 2024 due to a pointy downturn in close-game outcomes (they misplaced 5 video games by a complete of 23 factors), they usually certainly turned that again round. The Large 12 enjoys a stage of roster parity few others can match, and it is tough to win (or lose) all of your shut video games two years in a row. I believed Utah would have an amazing yr, and that is what occurred.

One other factor additionally occurred, nevertheless: Texas Tech whipped out the proverbial checkbook and spent massive to construct a implausible roster. Thanks partially to 2025 newcomers like edge rushers David Bailey and Romello Height and cornerback Brice Pollock, the Pink Raiders surged to the highest of the Large 12 pile, bettering slightly on offense and a ton on protection. And their 2026 switch class seems awfully thrilling, too — sufficient so that they are No. 7 on the Manner-Too-Early regardless of dropping lots of 2025’s finest gamers.

In 2026, then, it is going to be Tech versus one of the best of the close-game turnaround groups. And two groups stand out in that pack. Kansas State went 2-5 in one-score finishes in 2025, 1-4 in Large 12 play, and between shut losses and all the brand new calls for of contemporary roster administration, head coach Chris Klieman retired and was changed by up-and-comer (and former Ok-State quarterback) Collin Klein. His first Wildcats roster will look awfully totally different, with over 30 gamers transferring out and 25 coming in (up to now), however he did maintain onto hot-and-cold quarterback Avery Johnson.

In the meantime, Oklahoma State went 0-4 in one-score finishes, 0-3 in convention play, and it turned what was destined to be a foul season into a really terrible one. The Cowboys went 1-11, despatched Mike Gundy out to pasture, and introduced in Eric Morris (who, in flip, introduced in lots of his latest North Texas stars).

The decide: Texas Tech. One other predictable decide. The Pink Raiders are a far safer decide than both Ok-State or OSU, and after the extent of domination they confirmed in 2025 (common rating of Tech’s Large 12 contests: Tech 38, opponent 11) we’ll journey the new hand. I do determine their protection takes a step backward, however the signing of quarterback Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati), the addition of receivers like Malcolm Simmons (Auburn) and Donte Lee Jr. (Liberty) and the return of a pair of sturdy operating backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) may guarantee that offensive enchancment offsets any defensive regression.

ACC champion

The rule: It needs to be gained by both Clemson (2011, 2015-20, 2022, 2024) or a crew that beat Clemson within the common season (2012-14, 2021, 2023, 2025).

This was final season’s rule, and due to the funky tiebreakers that put Duke within the ACC championship recreation (which the Blue Devils gained over Virginia), we get to maintain it for 2026 regardless that Clemson’s total place inside the ACC seems awfully shaky in the intervening time following the Tigers’ worst season since 2010. Subsequently, of the 17 groups within the ACC, solely 9 are eligible for the crown: Clemson, Clemson’s 4 2026 dwelling opponents (Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech) and Clemson’s 4 away opponents (Cal, Duke, Florida State, Syracuse).

The ACC has three groups ranked on the Manner-Too-Early listing — No. 8 Miami, No. 14 Louisville, No. 17 SMU — and just one performs Clemson. So this one’s fairly simple, huh?

The decide: Miami. The Hurricanes lose fairly a number of difference-makers, however with operating again Mark Fletcher Jr. and receiver Malachi Toney returning and, presumably, Duke’s Darian Mensah taking up at QB (although that would get awfully messy), the defending nationwide runners-up are nonetheless comfortably the ACC’s most confirmed amount heading into 2026. The ACC is changing into fairly adept at throwing surprises our approach — SMU reached the CFP in its first season within the league in 2024, and Duke’s title final yr definitely defied many strands of logic — however we all know who the highest canine is to start out.

(In fact, another rule may win the day in 2026: It is an even-numbered yr, and due to this fact Clemson will win the league. The Tigers did so in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024, in any case. And it could be identical to Dabo Swinney’s delinquent squad to do the deed a yr after falling aside underneath enormous expectations.)

Greatest Group of 6 champion

The rule: The most effective crew to schedule a number of power-conference opponents wins.

Granted, the phrase “schedule” is essential right here — Boise State technically scheduled a number of power-conference opponents when it added Washington State and Oregon State to its nonconference docket (which already included Oregon) for 2024, even when the Cougars and Beavers have been power-conference cast-offs by the point these video games formally occurred.

I’ve just about given up on the committee strategy for figuring out CFP rankings at this level. The CFP committee’s job is to craft a high 25 every week, however at this level it clearly thinks its job is to artisanly handcraft a listing of playoff groups as an alternative. Miami acquired into the CFP as a result of there wasn’t a crew separating the Hurricanes from Notre Dame on the listing, and due to this fact their head-to-head win over the Irish abruptly carried triple the burden that it could have had BYU or Alabama been separating the 2 within the rankings; that is insanity. So is the truth that the committee so totally makes use of the “Ain’t performed no one” rule to find out its Group of 5 consultant.

It is fairly laborious for a superb mid-major program to schedule power-conference opponents — these energy groups are most likely in search of a win, in any case — and it is going to get even trickier with the SEC and ACC (sort of) transferring to nine-game convention schedules. There at the moment are fewer whole slots accessible, and there is even much less motivation to schedule a troublesome mid-major recreation. However the committee will nonetheless clearly favor the groups that managed to snag a type of contests.

James Madison was fairly a bit higher than Tulane on paper in 2025: The Dukes completed the yr twenty seventh in each SP+ and the FPI, whereas the Inexperienced Wave have been merely forty fifth and 54th, respectively, and JMU had fewer regular-season losses, too. However Tulane was all the time going to rank forward of JMU as a result of the Inexperienced Wave had gone 2-1 in opposition to power-conference groups whereas the Dukes had gone 0-1. Granted, JMU acquired in anyway due to Duke’s shock ACC title, and whereas neither shined within the CFP, the Dukes nonetheless confirmed extra of a pulse in opposition to Oregon (they misplaced 51-34) than Tulane did in opposition to Ole Miss (41-10).

It is clear that the sting for touchdown the Group of 6’s assured playoff bid — and sure, it is now the Group of 6, with the Pac-12 fleshing out its roster — will go to the groups which have managed to schedule nicely. By my rely, 14 G6 packages have not less than two power-conference opponents lined up for 2026, and maybe not surprisingly, most of these groups have been fairly dangerous final season.

Solely 5 of the 14 completed .500 or higher: 11-3 Tulane (2026 opponents: Duke and Kansas State), 9-4 Hawai’i (Stanford and Arizona State), 7-6 Georgia Southern (Clemson and Houston), 7-6 Washington State (Washington, Kansas State and Arizona) and 7-7 Miami-Ohio (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati). As a lot as I might like to make the case for a playoff push from, say, 5-7 Kent State (South Carolina and Ohio State) or 4-8 Tulsa (Oklahoma State and Arkansas), we should always most likely stick with semi-known portions and provides the decide to one of many 5 respectable groups.

The decide: Hawai’i. Shock! Choosing Tulane would have been too simple — plus, I did not essentially love the varsity’s new head coaching rent Will Corridor — so let’s go together with some new blood. Timmy Chang’s Rainbow Warriors each started and ended the 2025 season with wins over power-conference opponents (even when it was simply Stanford and Cal), they usually have been awfully enjoyable to observe. Granted, they misplaced star receiver Jackson Harris (LSU) and dynamite punter Billy Gowers (Indiana) to the portal, however coordinator Dennis Thurman’s protection was their higher unit in 2025, and if quarterback Micah Alejado can stay wholesome (he missed two video games and performed harm in others), he is a firecracker. So we’ll say Hawai’i beats Stanford and Arizona State, wins the new-look Mountain West and turns into a playoff success story.

At-large bids

We’d like two guidelines to account for the CFP’s seven at-large bids.

Rule No. 1: Six groups from the Manner-Too-Early High 25.

Precisely six of seven at-larges have been accounted for in Schlabach’s listing in each 2024 and 2025. (The 2025 listing: Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama, Texas A&M, Miami and Ole Miss.) We have already handed auto-bids to a couple of 2026’s high groups — No. 1 Indiana, No. 4 Georgia, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 8 Miami — however that leaves us a reasonably large listing from which to decide on six groups.

The picks:

Notre Dame. I used to be aggravated that the Combating Irish have been neglected of the 2025 CFP, each due to the logic concerned — see the “bodily separation” dialog above — and since I believed they have been adequate to win the nationwide title. They lose some key gamers like everybody else, together with star operating backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and receiver Malachi Fields, an enormous difference-maker in 2025. However the protection seems loaded, quarterback CJ Carr was dynamite for a lot of the season and, nicely, Notre Dame all the time has good operating backs.

Throw within the gross new “Notre Dame is routinely in with a top-12 rating” rule and a a lot simpler early-season schedule and you’ve got perhaps the one almost certainly CFP crew of 2026.

Oregon. Like Georgia, the Geese’ protection thrived forward of schedule, with a reasonably younger core, in 2025. I used to be skeptical of the addition of switch quarterback Dylan Raiola (Nebraska), however with the introduced return of quarterback Dante Moore and a wonderful crop of 2025 freshmen, the Geese must be loaded as soon as extra. Nobody’s a certain factor in school soccer now, however Dan Lanning’s crew is very shut, even when it nonetheless wants to deal with that “getting blown out by the eventual nationwide champion within the CFP annually” factor.

Ohio State. OK, perhaps Ohio State is a certain factor. The Buckeyes could not shift their offense out of Warning Mode when it counted in 2025, and it was expensive. And whereas Ryan Day made what turned out to be a wonderful new defensive coordinator rent in Matt Patricia a yr in the past, he has an equally essential rent to make on offense within the coming days or even weeks. However it doesn’t matter what, the Buckeyes will nonetheless have receiver Jeremiah Smith catching passes from Julian Sayin, with operating again Bo Jackson — who improved considerably all through his freshman yr — within the backfield. There won’t be a greater start line for any roster within the sport.

Texas. I used to be skeptical of the Longhorns, or not less than their credentials for being the preseason No. 1 crew, heading into 2025, and that skepticism proved warranted, as quarterback Arch Manning — the least-proven preseason Heisman favourite ever — had classes to be taught and each an unproven receiving corps and rebuilt traces struggled at occasions. However even when they’re ineligible for the SEC title due to the Kirby Sensible rule, it is laborious to not acknowledge that (A) Manning was No. 1 in Complete QBR from Nov. 1 onward and (B) Texas nonetheless gained 10 video games and went 3-2 in opposition to the ultimate SP+ high 15. Even with Sarkisian taking an enormous attain along with his defensive coordinator rent, this can be a extra confirmed crew heading into 2026.

Texas A&M. Simply as I used to be skeptical of Texas, I used to be larger than most on Texas A&M, so let’s journey that for an additional season. Mike Elko’s Aggies fell aside offensively late within the yr, which turned an 11-0 begin into an 0-2 end, they usually’ll have to interchange star cross rusher Cashius Howell. However the return of veteran quarterback Marcel Reed and underrated star receiver Mario Craver, together with a portal-fortified offensive line and loads of stellar defensive choices, ought to guarantee a reasonably excessive stage of play once more in Faculty Station. The SEC is not loaded with certain issues heading into 2026, however A&M has loads to supply.

USC. Heading into 2025, it appeared that, receiver Makai Lemon apart, most of USC’s finest gamers can be scheduled to return in 2026. “Metal your self for some severe USC hype this time subsequent yr, I suppose,” I wrote in final summer season’s Big Ten preview. The lack of Lemon and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn maybe alleviated a few of that potential hype, as did the truth that they underachieved late in 2025 and missed out on a 10-win season.

However Lincoln Riley signed ESPN’s No. 1 2026 recruiting class so as to add to a roster that returns quarterback Jayden Maiava, two sturdy operating backs and a splendidly skilled offensive line. There are all the time justifiable questions on Riley’s protection, and the convention schedule options Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Penn State, so if you wish to stay a USC skeptic, it is warranted. However life’s about taking dangers, proper? Combat on.

Rule No. 2: A crew that had a dropping report final season.

We’ve got to save lots of room for some nonsense. The 2024 CFP featured an Indiana crew that had gone 3-9 the season earlier than. The 2025 CFP featured Oklahoma, which had managed only a 6-7 report in its first SEC marketing campaign. Virginia additionally practically made it after three straight dropping seasons.

Granted, I threw a North Carolina Hail Mary in final yr’s CFP projections, and that got here up only a wee bit quick, however somebody bizarre will most likely thrive, and there aren’t many apparent candidates. What’s your taste: Florida (4-8 in 2025), Auburn (5-7) or South Carolina (4-8) from the SEC? Wisconsin (4-8) or, I do not know, Maryland (4-8) from the Large Ten? Florida State (5-7) or Virginia Tech (3-9) from the ACC? Baylor (5-7) or Kansas (5-7) from the Large 12?

Not one of the above. If we’re getting bizarre, let’s get actually bizarre.

The decide: Oklahoma State. Hear me out! Have been the Cowboys abjectly hopeless in 2025? Completely. They plummeted to 1-11 with what was, per SP+, their worst crew since 1963 (they usually had some awfully dangerous groups within the Nineteen Nineties). However they made a doubtlessly dynamite rent in Eric Morris — one in all my favorite hires of the cycle — and he has mainly imported his dynamite North Texas offense, bringing in 17 former Imply Inexperienced gamers together with stars in QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins and WR Wyatt Young. OSU will rating loads of factors in 2026, and if the Cowboys’ close-games luck flips as nicely, they may very well be an enormous turnaround story.

Big sufficient to make the CFP? Virtually definitely not. However I’ll join on one in all these outlandish picks sooner or later, and I’ll be so unbearable about it when that occurs.

The CFP for the 2026 season

So we’ve our CFP area for 2026. Aiming for essentially the most aesthetically pleasing pairings doable, we’ll say the seedings line up like this:

1. Indiana

2. Georgia

3. Texas Tech

4. Notre Dame

5. USC

6. Texas A&M

7. Ohio State

8. Miami

9. Oregon

10. Texas

11. Oklahoma State

12. Hawai’i

First-round matchups

9 Oregon at 8 Miami (winner performs 1 Indiana). The Mario Cristobowl, with a built-in 2025 CFP rematch within the quarterfinals.

12 Hawai’i at 5 USC (winner performs 4 Notre Dame). Micah Alejado vs. Jayden Maiava is sort of the tantalizing matchup, and this fashion we perhaps nonetheless pressure the school soccer universe to present us a USC-Notre Dame recreation.

11 Oklahoma State at 6 Texas A&M (winner performs 3 Texas Tech). The New and Outdated Large 12 portion of the draw.

10 Texas at 7 Ohio State (winner performs 2 Georgia). We get yet one more Texas-Ohio State recreation (to go together with the 2024 semifinals and 2025-26 home-and-home sequence), plus both one other Sark vs. Sensible recreation or a rematch of the fabulous 2022 Georgia-OSU semifinal within the quarters.

Predictions

• First spherical: Oregon over Miami, USC over Hawaii, A&M over Oklahoma State and Texas over Ohio State.

• Quarterfinals: Oregon over Indiana (revenge!), Notre Dame over USC, Texas Tech over Texas A&M, Georgia over Texas.

• Semifinals: Notre Dame over Oregon, Georgia over Texas Tech.

• Finals: Notre Dame over Georgia.

I by no means know which groups I believe the very best of till I pressure myself to make some predictions. Apparently 2026 is Notre Dame’s yr. You heard it right here first. The Irish seem loaded on paper, and whoever beats Oregon within the CFP has to win the entire thing. It is the rule at this level.