Tariffs, trade and visas to dominate talks

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and meets President Donald Trump later this week, there will likely be some heat hugs and shared laughs. However that won’t be all.

Trump and Modi have developed a robust private rapport through the years, marked by high-profile conferences and joint appearances.

Since their first assembly in Washington in 2017, their bond has grown by different occasions, together with joint appearances at large rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from shared worldviews and politics and a mutual strategic concentrate on countering China, a priority that has additionally strengthened the broader US-India partnership.

Not surprisingly, Trump has usually criticised India, however he has by no means criticised Modi.

And so, throughout Modi’s visit, the 2 leaders will in all probability spend time mapping out subsequent steps within the US-India strategic partnership, which is already in an excellent place.

Modi will reportedly meet a number of members of Trump’s cupboard, in addition to US enterprise leaders and members of the Indian-American neighborhood.

He can also meet SpaceX and Tesla chief Elon Musk. Modi, eager to scale up India’s burgeoning electrical autos sector, could be pleased if Musk opened a Tesla manufacturing facility in India.

And but the Trump-Modi conviviality and heady discuss of strategic partnership might masks a sobering actuality: throughout Modi’s go to, the connection’s transactional facet will come into sharp reduction with every chief, particularly Trump, armed with an array of calls for.

Delhi is aware of Trump properly. Lots of Modi’s present cupboard ministers additionally served throughout his earlier time period, which overlapped with a part of the primary Trump administration. That familiarity has been on show since Trump’s inauguration final month: Delhi has publicly signalled its willingness to decrease tariffs, take again undocumented Indian immigrants and purchase American oil.

It has already lowered some tariffs and brought again 104 undocumented Indians, with the primary airplane arriving in India final week. These pre-emptive steps are supposed to forestall Trump from making particular calls for of India and to cut back the probability of tensions with the brand new Trump administration.

Nonetheless, Trump might ask Modi to make extra tariff reductions, to additional chip away at a US items and providers commerce deficit with India that has approached $46bn (£37.10bn) lately. However an impediment may turn into a chance: Modi might name on Trump to enter into bilateral talks on an financial partnership accord meant to cut back tariffs on either side.

In recent times, Delhi has proven a rising willingness to pursue trade deals. The Trump administration might show to be a extra keen interlocutor than the Biden administration, which imposed heavy environmental and labour-related situations on new commerce agreements.

Trump can also ask Modi to take again extra undocumented Indians. On condition that some estimates put the quantity at more than 700,000 – the third-largest such group within the US – this will likely be a tough and delicate difficulty for Delhi to navigate.

Final week, India’s Overseas Minister S Jaishankar told parliament that the federal government was working with the US to make sure Indian residents weren’t mistreated whereas being deported after studies of them being shackled sparked anger.

Trump can also name on Modi to purchase extra American oil.

In 2021, India was the top destination for American oil exports, however the Russian invasion of Ukraine introduced main adjustments in international oil markets and prompted Delhi to ramp up imports of low-cost oil from shut companion Russia. The value level will decide how a lot oil India is keen to purchase from the US.

Modi can also come along with his personal vitality ask: put money into Indian nuclear vitality. Delhi is amending its nuclear legal responsibility regulation and has introduced a brand new nuclear vitality mission, in an try and sharpen worldwide curiosity within the gasoline.

India goals to satisfy half its vitality necessities by renewable vitality by 2030. Asking Trump to put money into nuclear gasoline quantities to a possible pleased medium: it’s cleaner than fossil fuels, however far faraway from the photo voltaic and wind energy that will not strike the Trump administration as a sexy funding.

Know-how will in all probability be mentioned as properly.

This was a fast-growing area for bilateral relations within the Biden period, due to the 2022 implementation of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), which either side view as a brand new cornerstone for strategic partnership. iCET is supposed to be straight overseen by the 2 nationwide safety advisers – to keep away from getting slowed down in paperwork – which implies they need to every be personally invested in it.

Modi will seemingly search assurances from Trump and his Nationwide Safety Adviser Mike Waltz that they continue to be dedicated to this. Given Washington’s concentrate on countering China by making India a much bigger a part of tech international provide chains, they in all probability will.

Additionally on the tech co-operation entrance, Modi might make a pitch for Trump to keep up the H-1B visa regime. These visas for extremely expert international staff, closely criticised by some influential Trump supporters, have been awarded to giant numbers of Indian tech staff within the US.

Different international locations can also come up throughout Modi’s conversations in Washington. Iran may loom particularly giant.

Delhi is partnering with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar metropolis – a part of a broader Indian technique to strengthen connectivity hyperlinks with Central Asia, by way of Iran and Afghanistan. However final week, the US administration launched a presidential memorandum outlining Trump’s “most stress” marketing campaign on Tehran, which hints at eradicating sanctions waivers for these conducting business actions in Chabahar. Modi might search readability on what this implies for Delhi.

Trump can also gauge Modi’s place on a giant international coverage precedence: ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has a robust curiosity in these wars winding down. Modi’s place on the struggle in Ukraine – calling for an finish to the battle with out criticising Putin or Russia – echoes that of Trump.

India’s particular relationship with Russia and shut ties with Israel might immediate Trump to see if Modi would wish to play a third-party mediator function as properly. Modi would in all probability be snug doing so provided that the events are receptive to outdoors mediation.

However regardless of some probably delicate discussions this week, each leaders will wish to preserve a constructive tone.

In that regard, the Indo-Pacific Quad will likely be simply what the physician ordered.

Trump strongly backs this group which consists of the US, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on countering Beijing.

In his first time period, Trump elevated the Quad’s annual conferences to the international minister degree and Biden elevated them additional to the leaders’ degree.

India is scheduled to host this 12 months’s Quad assembly and Modi might invite Trump to Delhi to attend this.

Trump reportedly is not a big fan of worldwide journey however India is a visit he’ll in all probability be eager to make – to deepen his private relationship with Modi and to advance a multifaceted bilateral partnership that extends properly past the transactionalism that may carry the day in Washington this week.

Michael Kugelman is the director of the Wilson Heart’s South Asia Institute in Washington

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