Russia editor
ReutersThere are occasions in historical past when nations are gripped by election fever.
January 2025 in Belarus isn’t one among them.
Drive round Minsk and you will see no large billboards selling the portraits of candidates.
There may be little campaigning.
The gray skies and sleet of a Belarusian winter add to an overriding sense of inactivity.
And inevitability.
The result of the 2025 presidential election isn’t doubtful. Alexander Lukashenko, as soon as dubbed “Europe’s final dictator,” who has dominated Belarus with an iron fist for greater than 30 years, might be declared the winner and safe a seventh time period in workplace.
His supporters name it an train in “Belarusian democracy”. His opponents reject the process as “a farce”.
Even Mr Lukashenko himself claims to lack curiosity within the course of.
“I am not following the election marketing campaign. I’ve received no time,” the Belarusian chief informed employees on the Minsk Vehicle Plant this week.
The employees introduced him with a present: an axe for chopping wooden.
“I am going to attempt it out earlier than the election,” promised Mr Lukashenko, to rapturous applause.
4-and-a-half years in the past, at a distinct enterprise, the chief of Belarus acquired a a lot cooler reception.
One week after the 2020 presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko visited the Minsk Wheels Tractor Plant. Leaked video confirmed him being jeered and heckled by employees. They shouted ‘”Go away! Go away!”.
In 2020 the official election end result – of 80% for Mr Lukashenko – had sparked anger and big protests throughout the nation. Belarusians poured onto the streets to accuse their chief of stealing their votes and the election.
Within the brutal police crackdown that adopted, 1000’s of anti-government protesters and critics had been arrested. Ultimately the wave of repression extinguished the protests and, with assist from Russia, Mr Lukashenko clung to energy.
The UK, the European Union and america refuse to recognise him because the authentic president of Belarus.
Alexander Lukashenko’s staunchest opponents (and potential rivals) are both in jail or have been pressured into exile.
That’s the reason this week the European Parliament handed a decision calling on the EU to reject the upcoming presidential election as “a sham” and declaring that the election marketing campaign has been happening “in an surroundings of extreme repression which fails to satisfy even the minimal requirements for democratic elections”.
I bear in mind interviewing Alexander Lukashenko last October, on the day the date of the presidential election was introduced.
“How can these elections be free and democratic if the leaders of the opposition are in jail or overseas?” I requested.
“Do you really know who the leaders of the opposition are?” Mr Lukashenko hit again.
“An opposition is a gaggle of people that ought to serve the pursuits, on the very least, of a small variety of individuals within the nation. The place are these leaders you communicate of? Get up!”
Alexander Lukashenko isn’t the only candidate. There are 4 others. However they appear extra like spoilers, than severe challengers.
I drive 4 hours from Minsk to satisfy one among them. Sergei Syrankov is the chief of the Communist Occasion of Belarus. Within the city of Vitebsk I sit in on one among his marketing campaign occasions. In a big corridor Mr Syrankov addresses a small viewers, flanked by his celebration’s emblem, the hammer and sickle.
His marketing campaign slogan is uncommon to say the least: “Not as a substitute of, however along with Lukashenko!”
He’s a presidential candidate who brazenly backs his opponent.
“There isn’t any various to Alexander Lukashenko because the chief of our nation,” Mr Syrankov tells me. “So, we’re collaborating within the election with the president’s staff.”
“Why do you assume there is no such thing as a various?” I ask.
“As a result of Lukashenko is a person of the individuals, a person of the soil, who has carried out the whole lot to ensure we do not have the form of chaos they’ve in Ukraine.”
“You are preventing for energy your self, however you help one other candidate. That’s…uncommon,” I recommend.
“I’m sure that Alexander Lukashenko will win a thumping victory. However even when he wins and I do not, the Communists would be the winners,” responds Mr Syrankov.
“The primary Communist in our nation is our head of state. Lukashenko nonetheless has his outdated membership card from the times of the Soviet Communist Occasion.”
Additionally on the poll is Oleg Gaidukevich, chief of the right-wing Liberal-Democratic Occasion of Belarus. He, too, is not working to win.
“If anybody dares to recommend the end result of the election is not identified, he is a liar,” Mr Gaidukevich tells me.
“It is apparent that Lukashenko will win. He has an enormous score….We will battle to strengthen our positions and put together for the following election.”
Mr Lukashenko’s critics reject the assertion that his reputation is “large”. However there is no such thing as a doubt he does have help.
On the sting of Vitebsk is the little city of Oktyabrskaya. Speaking to individuals there I detect concern {that a} change of chief could spark instability.
“I desire a secure wage, stability within the nation,” welder Sergei tells me. “Different candidates make guarantees, however won’t maintain them. I wish to maintain what I’ve received.”
“The state of affairs right this moment could be very tense,” says Zenaida. “Perhaps there are different individuals worthy of energy. However by the point a youthful chief will get his toes below the desk, makes these essential connections with with different nations, and together with his personal individuals that can take a very long time.
“God forbid we must always find yourself like Ukraine.”
In Belarus right this moment there may be concern of instability, concern of the unknown, and concern of the federal government. All work in Alexander Lukashenko’s favour.
