The UFC’s plan was to make a powerful first impression in 2025 by placing its greatest foot ahead. The yr’s pay-per-view schedule would start with a two-title-fight card headlined by MMA’s greatest fighter.
A lot for the most effective laid plans.
Islam Makhachev, No. 1 within the ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, will nonetheless defend his light-weight championship in the primary occasion of UFC 311 on Saturday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV). However as an alternative of preventing a rematch with Arman Tsarukyan, Makhachev (26-1) will as an alternative face a late alternative, Renato Moicano, after Tsarukyan injured his back on Thursday night.
This can be a important downgrade in problem for Makhachev, who has received 14 fights in a row and is the longest-reigning present champion within the UFC. Tsarukyan, on a 9-1 run since a unanimous determination loss to Makhachev in his UFC debut in 2019, is No. 2 within the ESPN light-weight rankings, proper behind Makhachev. Moicano (20-5-1) is method down at No. 7.
Makhachev already was a betting favourite to retain his crown, however by Friday afternoon his odds had ballooned to 13-to-1 per ESPN BET.
This is the reason the UFC likes to top-load its pay-per-views with a number of title fights. Then once more, the co-main occasion between males’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and 18-0 Umar Nurmagomedov presents a unique kind of twist within the betting odds.
Dvalishvili (18-4) shall be placing his belt on the road as a +230 underdog (as of Friday), regardless of being on an 11-fight successful streak. How unusual are these odds? Not unprecedented, however shut. Just one earlier UFC champ — strawweight Carla Esparza (+280), defending towards Zhang Weili in 2022 — has been a +250 or longer underdog within the 18 years that ESPN Analysis has been monitoring odds. (That doesn’t rely title defenses towards interim champs or rematches of upset dethronings.)
Past the 2 title fights, UFC 311 additionally includes a conflict of former champions, as Jiří Procházka (30-5-1) and Jamahal Hill (12-2) jostle for place amongst gentle heavyweight contenders. Each are angling for a return to the highest of the mountain, however there’s room for only one. Who’ll or not it’s?
These three fights stand above all others on this weekend’s card. However how does the combat lineup as a complete stack up? This is a rundown.
Good issues occur in threes
Males’s bantamweight championship: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov has fought six occasions within the UFC and has by no means been taken down. Solely two of his opponents have even tried, nonetheless, and so they had been a mixed 0 for 3. So let’s simply say his takedown protection is essentially untested — outdoors of a coaching fitness center filled with elite Dagestani wrestlers. Nurmagomedov’s coaching camp preparation shall be put to the take a look at by Dvalishvili, who has takedowns in all however considered one of his 13 journeys contained in the Octagon and has hit double figures 4 occasions. A kind of fights was in 2023 towards former champ Petr Yan, who surrendered 11 takedowns — on 49 tries! Sure, “The Machine” is relentless.
Nonetheless, if a fighter is piling up double-figure takedowns in three- and even five-round bouts, which means his opponents handle to climb again to their ft lots. Little doubt Nurmagomedov has been smothered every day in camp by his top-heavy teammates, all so he can work his method again to standing on this combat and put his pinpoint-accurate hanging to good use.
Title bout by the numbers
1,950: Strikes landed within the UFC by Dvalishvili, essentially the most in bantamweight historical past.
72: Takedowns for Dvalishvili in UFC bantamweight fights, most ever within the division. His total UFC whole of 85, which incorporates one catchweight combat, places him 5 behind all-time chief Georges St-Pierre.
63.1: Vital hanging accuracy proportion for Nurmagomedov, the most effective ever amongst UFC 135-pounders.
Gentle heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
When Hill final fought in April, Alex Pereira knocked him out. When Procházka final fought in June, Pereira additionally knocked him out — for the second time in lower than a yr. Each of those former champions have set their sights on one other date with the present champ, and so they’ve talked about that greater than they’ve dwelled on this combat with one another. However the street to Pereira leads by way of this stepping stone, so there is not any use getting forward of oneself.
Each males are confirmed finishers, however Procházka is aware of no different method than hunt-’em-down abandon, with 26 knockouts and three submissions amongst his 30 wins. His recklessness didn’t serve him effectively in his losses to Pereira, but it surely might draw the hubris-laden Hill out of his usually disciplined strategy and into an ill-advised brawl. It must be enjoyable discovering out.
Light-weight championship: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano
This essential occasion belongs within the high tier of UFC 311 solely as a result of it options the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter within the sport. That, in itself, is considerably of a uncommon deal with for followers.
Even together with his place on the high of the rankings and his stardom-by-association Khabib Nurmagomedov connection, Makhachev would not have fairly the aura of the person proper under him within the pound-for-pound hierarchy, Alex Pereira. The sunshine heavyweight champ has boosted his profile in an enormous method by placing on present after eye-opening present in fast succession. Makhachev, against this, fought solely as soon as final yr and twice in 2023. He makes an impression each time, although, so whereas a late change of opponent douses the keenness, it is all the time enjoyable watching the most effective within the sport go to work.
The percentages are stacked as excessive as Kilimanjaro towards Moicano, however he has received 4 in a row, most not too long ago a TKO of Benoît Saint Denis in September. Can he make this some of the surprising nights within the sport’s historical past?
Title bout by the numbers
13: Consecutive light-weight wins for Makhachev, the longest streak in division historical past. His total win streak of 14 — together with a catchweight bout — places him third in UFC historical past, behind Anderson Silva (16) and Kamaru Usman (15).
60.3: Vital strike accuracy proportion of Makhachev, the most effective ever amongst UFC lightweights.
0-16: Mixed document of fighters 35 or older in UFC light-weight title bouts. Do I even need to inform you how outdated Moicano is?
Digging a little bit deeper for gems
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Holland is all the time entertaining — until you are locked within the Octagon with him and he is speaking, speaking, speaking. De Ridder, competing within the UFC for simply the second time, absolutely by no means noticed (or heard) anybody corresponding to Holland throughout his 5 years with One Championship, the place he as soon as held the titles at gentle heavyweight and middleweight concurrently. Focus, Reinier, focus.
Males’s bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
The 26-year-old Talbott is a scorching prospect, 3-0 within the UFC and 9-0 total, with seven knockouts. He earned his roster spot in 2023 in his solely combat to go the gap, setting a “Dana White’s Contender Collection” bantamweight document by touchdown 145 important strikes towards Reyes Cortez Jr. Barcelos has misplaced 4 of his final six fights, however is there a greater turnaround alternative than a date within the cage with a golden boy?
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
This is a tip for preventing Almeida: Don’t let him get his palms on you. This is a dose of actuality: It is virtually inevitable. In his eight UFC fights, Almeida has spent 87.3% of his time controlling his opponent, essentially the most by far in UFC historical past in any weight class. In actual fact, no different energetic heavyweight has spent even half of his cage time in management. Spivac truly ranks fourth amongst present heavies … at a paltry 37.2%.
Light-weight: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Ferreira has rotated his profession in a charming method. After dropping three straight fights in 2021, he has received his final two and been awarded efficiency of the night time bonuses each occasions. To make it three in a row, he must keep away from getting trapped beneath Dawson, who has spent 61.2% of his time as a UFC light-weight in high place, the best proportion ever within the division. Retaining a distance goes a great distance.
The remainder of the names … and numbers
Gentle heavyweight: Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
0: Choice wins by Guskov (16-3), who has two submissions and 14 knockouts. He has 12 first-round finishes and has been to a 3rd spherical solely twice. Go seize a espresso, cageside judges.
Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
4: First-minute finishes by Reese in 9 professional fights, together with a 20-second knockout of Julian Marquez final June for his first UFC win. One other (fast) espresso break for the judges?
Ladies’s bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
2.22: Placing differential (strikes landed for each one absorbed) within the UFC by Rosa, the most effective in division historical past. Sure, that is the load class as soon as dominated by the GOAT of ladies’s MMA, Amanda Nunes.
Males’s bantamweight: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
6: Professional fights it took Nakamura to earn a UFC roster spot. Since then, he’s 3-0 contained in the Octagon. The 29-year-old began in MMA lower than 4 years in the past after successful the under-23 wrestling world championship.
Males’s bantamweight: Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
29: Season of “The Final Fighter” on which Turcios received the bantamweight match. Coached by Alexander Volkanovski, Turcios defeated teammate Brady Hiestand by break up determination within the August 2021 finale.
Males’s flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
47: Share of Ulanbekov’s fights (8 of 17) that he has received by submission. He trains with Makhachev below coach Khabib Nurmagomedov, which is all you have to know concerning the Dagestani’s floor sport.
ESPN’s Andres Waters contributed to this text.
