It is mid-November, and qualification for the 2026 World Cup — to be hosted by the USA, Mexico and Canada subsequent summer time — is in its ultimate dramatic phases, with many automated spots to be stuffed over the following week and several other different nations vying for a spot in March’s intercontinental playoffs.
Earlier than we get there, although — and earlier than we get to the World Cup draw, which shall be held in Washington D.C. on Dec. 5 — let’s ask ourselves a easy query: If the World Cup began at present, who would win it?
ESPN FC’s writers and analysts had been requested precisely that, so here is how they really feel concerning the state of the match proper now and which groups look able to stroll away with the trophy.
Final World Cup win: 2010
FIFA rank: 1
Mark Ogden: The 2026 World Cup goes to be gained by the crew which may greatest cope with the situations of a stifling scorching summer time within the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Spain tick extra containers than some other contender. They’re the reigning European champions — their pedigree is unquestioned — however Luis de la Fuente’s aspect will win the World Cup as a result of they will dominate possession and put on down their opponents.
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They’ve two world-class goalkeepers in Unai Simón and David Raya, a confirmed protection and a midfield together with Martín Zubimendi, Pedri and Rodri. Additional ahead, on high of the consistency and reliability of Mikel Oyarzabal and Dani Olmo, the unpredictability and purpose menace of Ferran Torres and Samu Aghehowa, there’s winger Lamine Yamal, who’s able to main Spain to glory in his first World Cup. The ultimate is scheduled simply six days after his nineteenth birthday; what a present that will be.
Tom Hamilton: Spain have loads of large match pedigree regardless of falling on penalties within the UEFA Nations League ultimate to Portugal in June. Their final aggressive defeat in 90 minutes was approach again in 2023, after they misplaced to Scotland. Pedri missed a lot of the Euro 2024 knockout phases via damage, however he is again and firing, which provides to the world-class depth — and exquisite mix of youth and expertise — that De la Fuente can name upon.
Different groups like France, England and Argentina will push them shut, plus we count on Brazil to click on at some stage, particularly with Carlo Ancelotti on the helm. As we noticed in 2022, there’s more likely to be a Morocco-esque shock bundle, however proper now, Spain are on the entrance of the pack. Key to their probabilities, although, is getting Rodri again as much as full working order. Manchester City have been gradual to reintroduce him, but when he will get again to his world-class greatest…
Sam Marsden: Time for me to make an entirely authentic decide! Plenty of nations have loads of expertise, however proper now, none, for me, are higher than La Roja for 2 causes.
Firstly, they’ve a transparent enjoying model, which isn’t all the time simple to seek out in worldwide soccer. Secondly, it feels just like the roles throughout the crew are so effectively outlined and understood throughout the squad that they are best-equipped to cope with dropping gamers to accidents or suspensions. Nonetheless, that resilience and adaptability could possibly be examined if Ballon d’Or runner-up Yamal finally ends up lacking video games. He is maybe the one participant within the squad whose high quality, unpredictability and match-winning potential is tough to interchange.
1:49
Yamal state of affairs playground stuff’ from Barcelona and Spanish FA
Julien Lauren believes the Lamine Yamal state of affairs could possibly be “simply discovered” if each Barcelona and the Spanish FA “communicate to one another” to kind it out.
Alex Kirkland: Am I biased, residing as I do in Madrid? Maybe. However listed below are the information: Spain gained Euro 2024, beating Germany, France and England alongside the best way. Earlier than that, they gained the 2023 UEFA Nations League. Since then, they’ve reached the 2025 Nations League ultimate — solely to be crushed in a penalty shootout by Portugal. They’ve simply matched the longest unbeaten run of their historical past, going 29 aggressive video games with out defeat (counting that Portugal ultimate as a draw). They’ve additionally obtained Pedri, Yamal, Nico Williams, and so many midfield choices that Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz and Rodri are competing for only one spot.
Are there weaknesses? A number of: Oyarzabal is not your dream middle ahead, however he is obtained seven objectives for Spain in 12 months. And if he isn’t scoring, then Arsenal’s Mikel Merino — six objectives in World Cup qualifying — will. De la Fuente is not solely convincing, however you possibly can’t argue with outcomes, and his crew play a extremely clear, cohesive, well-established model of play. If Pedri and Yamal keep match: no different crew comes shut.
Cesar Hernandez: I believe there is not any wanting previous the Euro 2024 champions. If we’re not counting the outcomes of penalty shootouts (although it was a dramatic one with Portugal earlier this yr), they’ve gone 24 consecutive video games with out a defeat in regulation or additional time. They’re additionally breezing via World Cup qualifying with out a loss or purpose allowed.
Granted, if the World Cup was beginning this week, there’s additionally an assumption that the fitness management of Yamal can be in a way more supreme state as he is shifted between Barcelona and nationwide crew duties, however who is aware of. Maybe this back-and-forth continues via subsequent yr, which might result in a distinct prediction for 2026.
Lizzy Becherano: At this time limit, Spain need to be thought of the frontrunners. Successful Euro 2024 was a masterclass, one which additionally provided useful expertise to the youthful gamers on the squad. The likes of Yamal and Fermín López are higher for enduring the stress and excessive stakes on the worldwide stage, which is essential to being profitable at a World Cup. Sure nations boast particular person stars that may drive victories, however Spain stand robust sufficient in every place to energy via probably the most tough challenges the upcoming World Cup will pose.
James Olley: Spain! They lifted the Euro 2024 trophy by turning into the primary crew ever to win all seven matches with out requiring penalties. And the caliber of the groups they beat — Italy, Germany, France and England amongst them — urged it was no fluke.
Williams and Yamal are two years older with extra expertise; Rodri must be comparatively contemporary assuming he recovers from his persistent damage issues, but when not, Zubimendi — who deputized for Rodri within the Euros ultimate in opposition to England — has arguably taken his sport to a different degree at Arsenal thus far this season. Spain do want different gamers to kick on — Dean Huijsen switching his allegiance from Netherlands final yr could possibly be a serious increase if he thrives at Real Madrid — however they nonetheless look the crew to beat.
ENGLAND (3 votes)
Final World Cup win: 1966
FIFA rank: 4
Julien Laurens: The largest issue right here moreover England’s expertise is that they lastly have a supervisor who is just not afraid of constructing large calls and being trustworthy about it. Thomas Tuchel can cope with large egos higher than anybody else, having labored in all places from Chelsea to Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich. He has intensive expertise managing sad gamers and abandoning anybody who is not on board along with his philosophy and crew spirit. The most effective tacticians in world soccer, Tuchel is the fitting man to lastly lead England to victory.
The Three Lions have some of the gifted squads of gamers, and baggage of expertise on the membership degree, for him to select from — lots of whom had been a part of England’s run to the finals on the final two European Championships. Striker Harry Kane is within the type of his life, there’s depth in loads of positions and a contemporary technology of younger stars pushing arduous for a beginning spot or a spot on the aircraft subsequent summer time. (Severely, take your decide from Elliot Anderson, Alex Scott, Adam Wharton, Morgan Rogers … want I say extra?)
0:59
Marcotti questions Tuchel’s feedback about Bellingham, Kane and Foden
Gab Marcotti believes Thomas Tuchel ought to “by no means say” Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Phil Foden cannot play collectively.
Cole Palmer will come again from damage contemporary and rested, able to have a big effect whether or not as a starter or as a sub. And leaders like Kane, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice or Marc Guéhi will shine.
Tuchel additionally explained the obvious this week: Kane, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden cannot begin collectively. It did not work up to now, and it will not work on the World Cup this summer time. The crew wouldn’t be balanced sufficient and on this construction, it’s not potential to have them three collectively from the beginning. This England crew shall be constructed otherwise, on and off the pitch and that would be the motive for his or her success.
Invoice Connelly: They at present have one of the best mixture of expertise, depth, teaching, center-forward play and good well being. (Spain can be my reply, if not for these final two elements.) Tuchel’s mixture of warning and individualized techniques ought to work in addition to something in an extended mixture with so many knockout rounds, and whereas he most likely would not have the complete again state of affairs discovered in addition to he would favor, nobody does.
It is a battle-tested squad with a bench loaded with gamers would begin for all however probably the most elite nations on the earth. They’re in nice form, and if the general well being of the squad hasn’t fallen aside seven months from now, they will have every part they want.
Gab Marcotti: I am making use of the method of elimination right here. Proper now, Yamal and Pedri are injured (sorry, Spain); Brazil have so much to show beneath Carlo Ancelotti; Argentina look good, however we have not had repeat champions in my lifetime.
Proper now, logic says England or France, besides after 12 years of Deschamps, I can not assist however really feel issues is perhaps getting a bit stale for Les Bleus. So no matter, I will chunk.
Why not England? Why not Tuchel to make historical past as the primary overseas supervisor to raise a World Cup? Why not an finish to 60 years of harm and humiliation? Darn, cannot imagine I stated that. However you probably did ask for “proper now,” so …
FRANCE (2 votes)
Final World Cup win: 2018
FIFA rank: 3
Beth Lindop: Whereas I believe Spain are probably probably the most balanced crew in world soccer, I am choosing Les Bleus. They’re no strangers to World Cup success, having adopted up their 2018 triumph by reaching the ultimate in 2022.
By way of attacking firepower, I believe they’re fairly unmatched on the worldwide degree. Kylian Mbappé has been in tremendous scoring type for Actual Madrid this season, whereas Ousmane Dembélé is now formally one of the best participant on the earth due to his Ballon d’Or win, although his marketing campaign thus far has been disrupted by damage. With the likes of Hugo Ekitike, Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué within the squad, Didier Deschamps has a humiliation of attacking riches at his disposal. And, on the different finish of the pitch, Dayot Upamecano, Theo Hernández and William Saliba are additionally in nice type. The squad is actually robust in all departments.
2:04
Why is Kylian Mbappe feuding with a French rapper?
Julien Laurens explains why the feud between Kylian Mbappe and French rapper Orelsan is perhaps all the way down to a misunderstanding.
Ryan O’Hanlon: They’ve made the final two World Cup finals, and the final time they misplaced a knockout sport at a World Cup, Barack Obama was nonetheless president of the United States and England was nonetheless a part of the European Union. Their potential entrance three of Mbappé, Dembele, and Michael Olise is best than something any membership crew can supply. Their beginning middle backs are at present beginning for membership groups which have allowed 11 mixed objectives via their first 21 matches of home play.
This would be the most gifted crew on the match subsequent summer time — and it will not be shut.
ARGENTINA (1 vote)
Final World Cup win: 2022
FIFA rank: 2
2:24
Followers encompass Argentina bus to observe Messi practice
Lots of of followers collect as Lionel Messi and the Argentina crew practice in Spain forward of the Angola pleasant.
Rob Dawson: Managing the local weather within the U.S., Mexico and Canada shall be key for whoever lifts the trophy and the European nations are going to wrestle. Argentina obtained over the road in Qatar and the core of that squad remains to be right here. Lionel Messi — if he performs — is unlikely to have the identical impression as final time, however they have Emiliano Martínez, Cristian Romero, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández and Julián Álvarez round him. It is a formidable backbone to the crew.
World Cups are gained by sides that may develop right into a match, and Argentina have gotten invaluable inexperience from 4 years in the past. They’re those to beat.
