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Invoice Barnwell
For those who’re positive about something within the NFL, simply wait just a few weeks. Heck, for those who had been positive about something from Week 7‘s Giants-Broncos game, ready just a few minutes of actual time appeared to work simply as properly. After six months of ready for the NFL to return over the offseason, what we see within the first few weeks of motion feels stickier and extra significant than the rest, and we kind opinions rapidly.
After all, we must always know that what occurs in September would not at all times imply very a lot by the point we get to the postseason. Patrick Mahomes trying like a celebrity within the first few weeks of the 2018 season? Necessary. The Eagles hitting their bye at 2-2 a 12 months in the past after losing to the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and getting blown out by the Bucs? Nope. Philly casually went 16-1 the remainder of the best way, profitable by a mean of practically two touchdowns per contest.
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Everybody has their opinions and emotions about what we noticed over the primary month of the 2025 season. What number of of these ideas truly ring true as we hit the center of October? Some issues that appeared apparent or important have light into the September void, whereas different opinions solely really feel like they’ve hardened and calloused.
Right now, let’s run via 4 of these September emotions and see how Week 7 impacted what we knew — or thought we knew — about among the NFL’s most attention-grabbing groups.
Bounce to a September take:
The Chiefs’ offense was broken
The Jaguars’ defense could support the offense
The Colts’ offense would regress
The Bills would have a clear path in the AFC
What we stated in September: “This offense is damaged.”
Nicely, it was. The Chiefs appeared like a large number via their 0-2 begin, and whereas they got here up with a victory in Week 3 to get their season again on observe in a 22-9 victory over the Giants, the offense nonetheless felt virtually fully dependent upon Mahomes scrambles and out-of-structure magic. We knew issues had been going to be at the least a little bit higher as soon as Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice returned to the fold, however the Chiefs appeared like they had been going to wrestle to stay as much as even the 2023 and 2024 editions of their offense, not to mention the halcyon days when Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill had been at their peaks.
Over the previous 4 weeks? The Chiefs are fourth in EPA per play, a determine which rises to first after we take away rubbish time (these performs the place one crew’s probabilities of profitable are beneath 10%) from the equation. They’re second in factors scored per drive. And if we once more take away rubbish time drives, the Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 56% of their possessions because the begin of Week 4. The league common is 26%.
With Rice returning to the lineup for the primary time in over a 12 months Sunday after a knee injury and six-game suspension, the Chiefs lastly acquired to discipline the first-string offense they’d been ready to unveil because the begin of 2024. Rice, Worthy and Hollywood Brown had been within the lineup collectively for the primary time. Exterior of rookie left deal with Josh Simmons, who’s away from the crew coping with a private matter, the Chiefs had everybody on their offensive depth chart out there against the Raiders.
The outcomes had been dramatic. Even whereas sitting Mahomes for the whole lot of the fourth quarter, the Chiefs scored 31 factors and racked up 30 first downs. The Raiders ran solely 30 performs, the second fewest by any crew in a recreation since the 1970 merger. The Chiefs averaged 0.38 EPA per play with Mahomes on the sector; that is one of the best their offense has carried out with Mahomes on the sector in a regular-season recreation since Week 3 of the 2023 season. And this was the ninth-most productive regular-season efficiency of the Mahomes period by that metric.
Immediately, the Chiefs’ offense is prospering. And whereas it is simple to chalk that as much as the return of Rice or the presence of a hapless Raiders protection (particularly after Maxx Crosby went down injured), this actually began again in a win against the Ravens in Week 4. The next week against the Jaguars, Mahomes threw a game-changing pick-six on the Jacksonville objective line, which swung that recreation towards the Jags (whom we’ll get to in a bit), however the Chiefs scored 28 factors and had six drives of fifty yards or extra in opposition to an excellent protection. Then, they dropped 30 factors on seven significant drives against the Lions, punting as soon as all recreation.
What has modified? Lower than you would possibly suppose. The designed run recreation has been about as environment friendly because it was, for those who account for rubbish time. The Chiefs have not modified how typically they throw in impartial recreation scripts (rather a lot, each earlier than and after the Giants recreation). They’ve gotten higher after the catch, although not considerably so; their uncooked yards after the catch are up fairly a bit, however in taking a look at NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ metric yards after catch over expectation (YACOE), the Chiefs had been twenty eighth via three weeks and will not land a lot increased over the following 4 video games.
The 2 most notable variations, at the least to start out, come via the passing recreation and the work of the receivers. For one, the Chiefs are doing a greater job of bringing in Mahomes’ passes. They’d a -6.7% catch price over expectation via three video games, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. The one groups operating a decrease price over that span had been the Titans, who simply fired their coach, and the Jaguars, who’re nonetheless a large number.
Since Week 4, that has jumped to 0.8%, which is correct across the center of the pack. The Chiefs aren’t snatching balls out of skinny air, however their receivers are holding their very own and never letting their star quarterback down.
1:07
Why Daniel Dopp says Rashee Rice has WR1 upside on any given week
Daniel Dopp congratulates fantasy managers who stashed Rashee Rice and highlights why he has WR1 upside on any given week.
The larger issue, although, is what has been lacking across the Chiefs’ receivers: defenders. By way of three video games, simply over 46% of Chiefs passes had been thrown to open receivers. That determine was good for twenty second within the league. After we think about that the Chiefs had been taking part in with out their prime two wideouts and had Mahomes attempting to suit throws to guys like Brown and Tyquan Thornton in tight quarters, the underwhelming catch price may not be an excessive amount of of a shock.
Over the previous 4 video games? That determine has risen to 62.8%, one of the best mark within the NFL.
The early-season difficulties in getting receivers open appear to be a historic outlier. Between 2018 and 2024, the Chiefs ranked no decrease than fourth within the league in open goal price in any given season. Given what number of receivers have come via Andy Reid’s offense in that span, and the way the Chiefs have developed stylistically to account for groups taking away massive performs excessive, it is onerous to not give a good portion of the credit score for these enhancements to Mahomes. He has a tremendous means to determine pure areas with open pockets in coverages after which create explosives out of construction.
With receivers as open because the Chiefs have been over the previous 4 weeks, Kansas Metropolis is operating an astronomical anticipated completion price. Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ mannequin, a mean group of receivers could be anticipated to show 73.6% of Mahomes’ makes an attempt into completions over the previous month, additionally tops within the league. Offenses can run a excessive anticipated catch price by throwing the ball quick, because the Raiders are doing over that point span, however the Chiefs are averaging a shade underneath 7 air yards per try.
And now, after the returns of Rice and Worthy, the Chiefs haven’t got a mean set of receivers. For the primary time in years, Reid can actually stretch the sector and create not possible binds for opposing defenses. Rice acquired a 2-yard rating on a faucet move, however the different touchdowns had been merely mismatches. Rice was remoted in opposition to oft-picked-on nook Kyu Blu Kelly for a back-shoulder TD within the second quarter Sunday. Later within the recreation, when the Raiders blitzed Mahomes and performed Cowl 0, the legendary blitz-defeating quarterback had no bother discovering Brown within the slot for a rating. These are simply simple completions with out a lot danger for Mahomes.
The tight ends acquired within the combine Sunday, too. A blown protection on a deep crosser led to a 44-yard catch-and-run for Kelce, whereas Noah Gray picked up 28 yards on a faux screen-and-wheel up the sideline. The Chiefs have struggled out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) this season, however they’d a 61% success price with two or extra tight ends in opposition to the Raiders, their finest mark of the season.
And the move safety issues that plagued Mahomes in 2024 have not been as current this season. Over the previous month, Mahomes has handled fast pressures on simply 6% of his dropbacks, comfortably the bottom price within the league (common is about 15%). He is doing that whereas holding the ball at a price properly above league common, so it is not merely a product of getting the ball out quick.
With Mahomes taking sacks on simply 3% of his dropbacks over the previous month and turning the ball over simply as soon as (on that aforementioned pick-six within the Jaguars recreation), the Chiefs are emulating the Payments and changing into a optimistic play manufacturing facility. Final season, slightly below 47% of the Chiefs’ performs on first and second down had been profitable by EPA. That was ninth within the NFL.
Over the previous 4 weeks, the Chiefs are second in success price on early downs, trailing solely the Payments. Final 12 months’s crew wanted to thrive on third right down to survive, and with few explosive performs and an enormous blinking mild of an issue at left deal with, too many Chiefs drives ended in need of the tip zone as a result of they could not depend on Mahomes to make it via 4 or 5 third downs with out having the play blown up from his blind aspect. Now, with each improved offensive line play and extra success on first and second down, third-and-long hasn’t been as urgent of a problem. The Chiefs confronted third down with greater than 4 yards to go simply 3 times whereas Mahomes was within the recreation Sunday.
Will all of this stick? Possibly not fairly as intensely because it has over the previous 4 video games. The Chiefs have gone 12-for-14 scoring touchdowns in goal-to-go conditions over that point after going 1-for-4 in those self same spots over the primary three weeks of the season. Mahomes has gotten away with a dropped interception or two, together with a choose that ought to have been made by the Raiders within the second quarter on a drive that ended with Rice’s second landing of the sport.
With Rice and Worthy within the combine and Mahomes taking part in spectacular soccer, although, this appears and feels just like the Chiefs who’ve terrified the league on offense as soon as once more.
What we stated in September: “The protection can maintain up a sloppy offense.”
For all of the optimism and explosive performs popping out of Jacksonville’s 4-1 begin to open the season, it was fairly clear to anybody paying shut consideration that Trevor Lawrence and the offense weren’t holding up their finish of the cut price. That offense was producing the occasional massive play or highlight-reel second, however the operation merely wasn’t as much as what ought to have been sensible expectations.
Even via that 4-1 begin, the Jags led the league in procedural penalties, the form of unforced errors which have little to do with what occurs after the snap. They had been stricken by unlawful shifts and false begins. The offense took delay of recreation penalties, even in crucial spots or from dead-ball moments. Lawrence threw an unlawful ahead move after touring past the road of scrimmage in Week 1 against the Panthers, then did it once more in Week 5 against the Chiefs.
On prime of that, the Jags had been sloppy with the soccer. Lawrence misplaced what a crucial fumble attempting to leap over the pile for a fourth-and-short landing in opposition to the Chiefs, solely to have the ball punched out of his arms. Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with drops, which has led to picks for Lawrence; the QB appeared to throw one brutal interception per recreation, which normally got here within the second half.
The protection coated up these issues by forcing gobs of takeaways. Turnover regression towards the imply was one of many greatest causes I included the Jags as considered one of my groups most likely to improve in 2025, however no person noticed Jacksonville forcing 15 takeaways via its first 5 video games. A type of takeaways turned a landing, as Devin Lloyd now-famously took Mahomes’ solely turnover of the previous month 99 yards the opposite approach, dramatically flipping that recreation again in Jacksonville’s favor.
The opposite 14 turnovers helped create shorter fields for the Jags. By way of these first 5 video games, the Jaguars had 14 drives begin on their very own 40-yard line or nearer to the opposition finish zone. These drives produced 5 touchdowns, 4 discipline targets and three failures through a missed discipline objective or fourth-down stuff. (The opposite two resulted in kneel-downs to seal up victories.) The Lions and Colts had been the one groups to start out extra typically in what’s typically thought-about to be optimistic discipline place.
However over these previous two losses? The Jaguars have had one quick discipline, which got here against the Rams on Sunday in London. It rapidly evaporated after an unlawful man downfield penalty and a 13-yard sack on a free rush the place Lawrence did not have a scorching reply and tried to scramble his approach out of stress. As a substitute, the Jags had been knocked out of discipline objective vary and needed to punt down 21-0.
Not a lot has modified on the lengthy drives. The Jaguars had been twenty fourth in factors per possession on drives beginning inside their very own 40-yard line in the course of the 4-1 begin, and so they’re twenty seventh by that very same metric on those self same possessions over the previous two weeks. The protection hasn’t been in a position to drive any turnovers over that span, although, and that has put all the stress on the Jaguars’ offense to maintain lengthy, profitable drives.
That is the place the procedural penalties proceed to chunk. The Jags have added 10 extra procedural penalties on offense to their ledger over the previous two video games, tying them for the league lead. That is with out contemplating penalties like offensive holding and unlawful blocks above the waist — the form of calls environment friendly offenses ideally keep away from as a lot as attainable.
0:30
Travis Hunter hauls in 34-yard move for 1st NFL TD
Trevor Lawrence airs one out to Travis Hunter for Hunter’s first profession NFL landing.
Probably the most pointless of these penalties got here against the Seahawks in Week 6. As Thomas wrestled a 50-50 ball away from Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe for a landing within the third quarter, a flag hit the opposite aspect of the sector, with rookie hybrid participant Travis Hunter getting flagged for being offside. The penalty did not matter a ton within the massive image, because the Jaguars continued the drive and finally scored a landing anyway, however different much less conspicuous calls do make a distinction.
Drops, an issue plaguing the Jags seemingly since Lawrence arrived into city, proceed to be a priority. Thomas got here underneath scrutiny earlier within the season for shrinking in tight quarters and failing to make some powerful catches. I am unsure these complaints had been utterly warranted, however I did suppose that story was behind us now. As a substitute, that is nonetheless a problem.
Thomas had three probably catchable balls fall to the bottom Sunday, together with a dig the place the move was knocked out of his arms by an enormous hit from Kamren Kinchens and an out that was practically introduced in by a leaping Thomas. And final week, Thomas did not do a ok job of bringing in a dig thrown at his helmet, producing a three-and-out and punt in an eight-point recreation within the fourth quarter.
The Jags have the second worst catch price over expectation of any offense within the NFL this season, forward of solely the Bears, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And whereas it is simple to select on Thomas given his stardom, everyone seems to be guilty. Tim Patrick had a foul drop in opposition to the Chiefs that ought to have produced a choose, just for three totally different Kansas Metropolis defenders to exaggeratedly whiff on catching the ball. Dyami Brown dropped a would-be landing move that hit him within the arms against the Bengals.
When groups commit too many penalties and haven’t got quick fields, they find yourself inevitably needing to transform third-and-long — typically greater than as soon as on a drive — to attain factors. The Jags confronted third-and-10 or extra eight instances Sunday, with Lawrence selecting up a type of makes an attempt. The Jags failed on third-and-short, too; they got here up quick on a third-and-2 when a Thomas flat route picked up only one yard, on a third-and-3 Thomas drop and on a third-and-2 throw from an empty set that Lawrence sailed whereas attempting to hit backup tight finish Johnny Mundt.
Liam Coen nonetheless appears to be discovering the suitable locations to suit his gamers on offense. Mundt might be not the man you need break up out catching hitches on third down. I am fairly positive I noticed a Hunter Long alternative route earlier this season. The Jags began the season with Thomas operating loads of in-breaking routes and struggling earlier than modifying his route tree. Hunter’s function has appeared to fluctuate from week to week, although he did have his greatest recreation as a professional in London, turning 14 targets into eight catches for 101 yards and a rating. And Travis Etienne Jr., who was drafted two teaching regimes in the past for his relationship with Lawrence and skill as a move catcher, has 14 catches for 80 yards.
There’s expertise right here, however the Jags make too many errors to reliably and constantly win video games with their offense proper now. The protection has proved its means to cleared the path, nevertheless it’s at all times going to be powerful for groups within the trendy NFL to drive a number of takeaways each week. When the onus has fallen on the offense, the Jags have typically fallen aside this season. Till they clear issues up, that is not going to alter.
What we stated in September: “They’ve a transparent path to the highest seed within the AFC.”
The Payments are on what turned a well-timed bye this week, however after a disappointing loss to the Falcons on “Monday Night time Soccer” final week, their sudden downshift is price discussing right here.
When Buffalo rolled off a dramatic comeback win over the rival Ravens within the opener, it appeared just like the Payments had been in nice place to verify the convention bracket would journey via Buffalo. The Chiefs would land at 0-2, the Ravens would finally fall all the best way to 1-5, and the Payments had what gave the impression to be a really beneficiant schedule. Having to face the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons earlier than the Week 7 bye, it appeared like Buffalo may not have a lot bother beginning 7-0. Throw in a win against Carolina on further relaxation in Week 8, and Payments followers may envision a world the place they had been 8-0 earlier than hosting the Chiefs in early November.
Nicely, schedules could be a humorous factor. The Payments did win their first 4 video games over that span, though the Dolphins put up a battle in Western New York in Week 3, and the Saints acquired inside two factors in the course of the fourth quarter earlier than Josh Allen finally pulled away. A bit sloppy, maybe, however the Payments had been stacking wins, and that is what mattered.
After which the stack fell over. The Payments could not get into prime gear in opposition to a feisty Patriots crew, and when Drake Maye made a few big-time performs on the ultimate drive to get the Pats into discipline objective vary, a 52-yard kick by Andy Borregales handed the Payments their first lack of the season. Every week later, the offense could not get comfy whereas dealing with a Falcons crew that had been blown out by the Panthers earlier within the season, with the Payments mustering simply two scores in a 24-14 defeat. Immediately, 4-0 was 4-2, and the Payments had been out of the highest spot within the AFC.
What has gone improper for the Payments? I am going to begin with the only attainable clarification: They have been in a position to lean on a formulation that no person else within the league has managed to match, and that formulation has come undone, particularly over the previous two video games. If anybody is able to rounding again into that kind, it is the Payments, however what they had been doing was principally unprecedented in league historical past.
It is the turnovers. The offense merely by no means gave away the soccer. Between their bye week in November final 12 months and the win over the Dolphins, the Payments performed 12 video games. Their offense turned the ball over precisely one time. That has by no means occurred earlier than, and it has by no means even been approached. No person else in league historical past has a stretch of 12 video games with fewer than 4 turnovers on offense, and the crew that pulled that off was final season’s Eagles.
We stay in an period the place turnovers are at historic lows, however NFL groups aren’t supposed to have the ability to play three months of soccer and switch the ball over one time. That interception, which got here last year against the Patriots, was a third-and-16 deep ball from Allen that was picked off in the long run zone and amounted to an arm punt. The Payments primarily had not handled a significant turnover since their final regular-season recreation against the Chiefs.
Over the previous three video games, the Payments have six turnovers. Allen threw an interception in opposition to the Saints when he could not step right into a throw to get as a lot as he needed on a gap shot, permitting Jonas Sanker to make a pleasant play for his first profession INT. And as soon as that occurred, instantly, the spell gave the impression to be damaged. Allen made an terrible choice to drive a throw into double protection within the crimson zone for an additional choose. One other compressed pocket led to an impacted throw and a choose on the finish of the primary half in opposition to the Falcons, whereas one other Allen move was tipped and picked within the remaining minute to seal the 10-point margin of defeat.
Past Allen, the Payments fumbled an change on a jet sweep and could not fall on the soccer in opposition to Atlanta, whereas a Keon Coleman fumble contained in the 10-yard line gave the Patriots a crucial quick discipline early of their street win. The Payments had one other ball hit the turf in opposition to the Falcons on a third-and-1 jet sweep to Elijah Moore, and whereas he recovered the fumble, he was stopped behind the road for a loss.
A few of that is Allen throwing in unexpectedly adverse recreation scripts. And a few of it was their luck being sure to alter; throughout that 12-game streak, the Payments recovered 11 of their very own fumbles on the offensive aspect of the ball. A few of these are unhealthy exchanges which are likelier to finish up again with the offense than different fumbles within the open discipline, however the Payments could not depend on constantly falling on the ball.
With Allen taking sacks at traditionally low charges for many of final season and the early a part of this season, and coordinator Joe Brady being very comfy going for it on fourth down, the Payments had been an much more intense model of the optimistic play machine I referred to earlier with the Chiefs. Over our 12-game span, Allen took sacks on simply 3.1% of his dropbacks, which he greater than made up for along with his means to increase performs and scramble for important yardage.
0:52
Jeff Saturday: Payments’ loss to Falcons a foul signal
Jeff Saturday explains his considerations in regards to the Payments after their loss to the Falcons.
Along with the six turnovers over the previous three weeks, Allen has taken eight sacks at a 9.2% price that almost triples what he had been doing over the prior three months. Once more, recreation script issues right here, however there is a a lot totally different formulation underpinning the Payments’ offense from the one which had led Allen to the MVP nod final season.
With Allen avoiding sacks and making so many out-of-structure performs, he was the uncommon quarterback who was higher underneath stress than he was figuring out of a clear pocket. Once more taking a look at that span, Allen’s 87.6 QBR underneath stress was practically 15 factors higher than that of anyone else. Over the previous three video games, with sacks and takeaways changing into a problem? Allen’s QBR has dropped to 12.2 underneath stress, twenty fifth amongst quarterbacks. He has gone 8-of-21 for 90 yards, a landing throw and three picks over that span.
In case your offense is not a relentless on-schedule machine that by no means will get off observe, it’s good to create explosive performs on offense to outlive. Allen’s clearly able to doing that, however the recreation scripts and the added yardage wanted for conversions leaned into Buffalo’s lack of playmakers within the passing recreation. James Cook III has been superb this season, and there have been considerations that the Payments do not get him the ball typically sufficient, however Brady has already leaned extra closely into the run. The Payments are 18th in neutral-script run rate on early downs, simply narrowly off from seventeenth the 12 months prior. Even throughout this tough patch, the Payments are second within the NFL in success price on offense.
The Payments’ offense wants extra explosives and fewer takeaways. However the Payments’ protection must go in the other way. If something, the protection has been extra depending on forcing turnovers in recent times to thrive. Earlier this 12 months, I wrote about the way it’s tough to maintain turnover charges within the prime 5 on protection, simply given how a lot variance can swap takeaway figures.
Nicely, listed here are two essential rankings for the Payments. The primary one is how typically they ended opposing drives with takeaways. The second is the place they ranked in factors allowed per possession on drives that did not finish with a fumble or interception. You may discover a sudden drop-off:
This was a wonderful protection between 2021 and 2023. In 2024? The Payments weren’t nice at stopping opposing offenses, however they created extra turnovers than another crew within the league on a per-drive foundation, so the stops they did give you had been disproportionately helpful.
This 12 months, although, the Payments have solely 5 takeaways in six video games. They’ve but to have a multiturnover recreation on protection after producing 10 of them within the 2024 common season, 9 of which yielded Payments victories. They’ve misplaced the turnover battle in consecutive weeks after profitable or tying it in each considered one of their regular-season and postseason video games of final season.
Strain hasn’t been an issue for the Payments, as a resurgent 12 months from Joey Bosa has helped Buffalo maintain the league’s second-best stress price this season. With out stress? The Payments have been putty. They’re twenty eighth in opponent QBR allowed with none form of stress getting dwelling, simply forward of the Commanders, Cowboys, Titans and Ravens — all of whom are going via their very own crises within the secondary.
The Payments are going via one as properly, even when coach Sean McDermott refuses to acknowledge as a lot. This merely has not been a unit as much as their requirements. A few of that has been injury-related; the Payments have not had first-round choose Maxwell Hairston, who has been out all season to date with a knee injury. And in flip, veteran Tre’Davious White — a cap casualty in Buffalo two years in the past — has allowed a 100.6 passer rating, a determine that does not embody the move interference penalty he took in the long run zone in opposition to the Patriots to assist arrange a rating on the finish of the primary half.
The safeties have been each bit as disappointing, and there is not the identical damage excuse. Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp had been Buffalo’s two finest safeties on paper, and so they’ve been on the sector all season. They’re simply not in a position to make performs. Rapp could not even get shut sufficient to make deal with makes an attempt at instances on Derrick Henry within the opener, and Bishop has made each psychological and tackling errors. By way of two seasons, his profession missed deal with price is nearly 12%, an unsustainable quantity for any security. It is one factor to take a tough angle and miss a deal with on Bijan Robinson‘s 81-yard landing scamper, however Bishop whiffed on a deal with of Stefon Diggs within the fourth quarter of the Patriots recreation, turning what ought to have been a 6-yard achieve on a third-and-5 right into a 30-yard gain and a first-and-goal alternative. The Patriots scored a landing to go up 10 and by no means trailed the remainder of the best way.
There are two methods to go from right here. One is to get again on the outdated formulation — dominate the turnover battle, eradicate the adverse performs and win by making fewer errors than their opponents. The opposite is to discover a new formulation. The Payments can work out different methods to win, however with a resurgent Chiefs crew coming to city in two weeks, they should discover or redefine their id and quick.
What we stated in September: “The Daniel Jones-led offense is a flash within the pan.”
Nope. After their 38-point shellacking of the Chargers on Sunday afternoon, I am unsure how one can actually poke many holes in what the Colts are doing on offense. They’re one of the best offense within the league, and it actually is not significantly shut. They’re scoring 3.5 factors per possession, and by that metric, the second-placed Chiefs are nearer to thirteenth than they’re to the Colts in first.
The Colts additionally lead the league in EPA per play, forward of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers and Lions. It’d really feel as if that is going to fade, and there are no ensures that the Colts would be the finest offense in soccer over the remainder of the season, however we have now seen them dominate opposing defenses for 419 snaps in 2025. And whereas seven video games is not even half of a season of knowledge, it is normally sufficient to know {that a} crew is not about to instantly collapse and fall to the underside half of the league.
Going again via 2010, the league chief in EPA per play after seven weeks has typically continued to play properly all through the rest of the season. They’ve, on common, been the league’s seventh-best offense from Week 8 onward. No EPA chief has been worse than 14th in EPA per play after Week 7 onward. That crew, the 2012 Giants, completed the common season ninth in EPA per play over your complete 12 months. They’re the one chief via seven weeks since 2010 that did not end the common season within the prime 5.
Barring an damage to Jones, which would depart the Colts with rookie Riley Leonard underneath middle, the Colts haven’t got some form of deadly flaw or underlying metric ready to trace towards their collapse. They’ve recovered three of 4 fumbles on offense, however the sign there may be fumbling solely 4 instances in seven video games, which is spectacular. They’re third within the league in third down conversion price and seventh in crimson zone landing price, that are on the excessive aspect however hardly out of whack for an offense that is rolling on early downs and outdoors the crimson zone, too. Will the Colts go 17-for-17 in goal-to-go conditions the remainder of the 12 months? In all probability not, however they do not want to do this to be an excellent offense.
A few of the arguments that may have been truthful to convey up in regards to the Colts throughout their scorching begin in September do not actually apply now. Let’s run via them:
They’ve confronted a simple schedule. It was actually one factor when the Colts dropped 33 factors on a hapless Dolphins protection within the opener. Even then, it was clear that Miami had punted on constructing an NFL-caliber secondary and had been going to be a goal for opposing offenses all season. The Browns, who’ve been an offensive mess all season, scored 24 factors in opposition to the Dolphins on offense yesterday. The Panthers ran for 239 yards on Miami. No person must be launching their nice offensive marketing campaign on beating the Dolphins.
Nicely, in Week 2, the Colts scored 29 factors and racked up 473 web yards on the Broncos, who’ve an incredible protection. Whereas Indy has loved among the league’s simpler defenses (Titans, Raiders) round a 20-point, three-turnover efficiency in a loss to the Rams, Sunday was one other prove-it recreation in opposition to a Chargers protection that ranked tenth in EPA per play earlier than dealing with the Colts. Indianapolis had what was arguably its finest offensive efficiency of the season, scoring 38 factors and topping 400 yards.
0:20
Daniel Jones flicks TD move to Michael Pittman Jr.
Daniel Jones connects with Michael Pittman Jr. to increase the Colts’ lead over the Chargers.
The Colts began the sport with three landing drives, all of which went 70 yards or extra, together with a 17-play epic within the second quarter. After a punt, they kicked a discipline objective and drove downfield for 2 extra touchdowns. After one other punt, the Colts chewed up the ultimate three-and-a-half minutes of clock to seal a two-TD victory.
It is one factor to spike a few massive performs or reap the benefits of just a few quick fields, however the Colts had been constantly explosive and in a position to create massive play alternatives all through this recreation. Even dealing with a Chargers crew that has a quarterback and a set of receivers recognized for his or her means to create these massive performs, the Colts had been simply the extra explosive crew of the 2.
After Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense struggled to piece collectively an 11-play, 76-yard drive to get inside two scores within the third quarter, the Colts simply hopped on the sector and moved the ball with ease. Tyler Warren leaked into the flat, shrugged off a deal with from security Derwin James Jr. and turned upfield for 29 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. picked up 11 yards. Alec Pierce went for 14. And with the Colts simply coming into discipline objective vary, Jonathan Taylor made up for an earlier run for no achieve on the drive by taking the ball 19 yards to the home. They moved 73 yards on 5 performs, merely overwhelming an excellent Chargers protection alongside the best way.
Jones is not going to maintain making this many massive performs. At his finest in New York underneath Brian Daboll, Jones had developed into some extent guard and fast distributor. Daboll dialed up run-pass choices, quick-game stuff and one-read ideas that allowed Jones to both get the ball out rapidly or get to scrambling. That offense labored in 2022, at the same time as Jones threw the shortest common move of anyone within the league, nevertheless it was much less efficient in 2023 and 2024.
There aren’t any such limitations this time round. Jones is averaging 8.4 air yards per throw, the seventh-highest determine for any quarterback within the NFL. He is a comparatively modest twelfth within the league in yards per try on deep passes, however Jones would not should be early-career Mahomes or Philip Rivers by way of selecting groups aside downfield to thrive on offense. He simply must be ok to present opposing defenses pause, and Jones has greater than met that prerequisite this season.
Shane Steichen has helped make life simpler for Jones in working off play-action. Jones is taking a play-fake on 33.5% of his dropbacks this season, comfortably the very best price within the league. (Second, coincidentally, is Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.) Owing partially to how devastating the Colts’ run recreation has been, Jones is averaging 9.5 yards per dropback with play-action this season, the fifth-best price within the league. On Sunday, Jones was 10-of-13 with play-action for 130 yards and a landing move.
There is not any disgrace in saying that the Colts playmakers are serving to gasoline a few of these massive performs with what they do after the catch, too. Taylor has been one of the best again in soccer (alongside Bijan Robinson), whereas each considered one of Indy’s playmakers has leveled up and appears as if they are a tier above the place they had been with Anthony Richardson Sr. at quarterback.
0:28
Daniel Jones and Tyler Warren hyperlink up for an additional Colts TD
Daniel Jones fires one other dart, this time to Tyler Warren, because the Colts prolong their lead over the Chargers.
I am unsure any offensive participant has been extra enjoyable to look at from a movie perspective this season than Warren, whose function within the offense would possibly as properly be Steichen’s Coach of the Yr submission. No person performs extra significant roles throughout the offense and will get the ball from a wider vary of locations, with Puka Nacua as the one potential competitors for that title. Warren has picked up first downs operating the triple possibility and operating the famed Nacua Sail route out of the backfield via the offensive line. He has been a lead blocker and a Wildcat quarterback. And in opposition to the Cardinals, Warren lined up because the wing tight finish after which took the handoff on a counter on third-and-5 for a 6-yard run, organising his landing catch on the following first-and-goal snap.
Jones will take too many sacks. The Broncos and Chargers do not precisely have mild move rushes, and Jones has managed to outlive. The identical quarterback who ran an 8.5% sack price in New York, together with a 15.8% mark in a six-game pattern in 2023, is taking sacks on simply 2.6% of his dropbacks this season. That is one of the best mark within the league, and it may be one of many single greatest enhancements any participant has made out of season-to-season.
There was a little bit little bit of magic the place gamers collide, and Jones someway manages to keep away from the fray and run ahead for a primary down, however he has legitimately been superb about discovering the road between extending performs with the hopes of making one thing explosive and giving up on a play on the proper time. Jones has held onto the ball for 5 seconds or extra simply 3 times all season. For context, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward are tied for the league lead with 20 such performs.
Jones can also be much less concerned within the run recreation than he has been in previous years. Taking kneel-downs out of the equation, Jones has 22 carries for 86 yards via six video games. These numbers aren’t going to look good in comparison with what the 2019 first-round choose was in a position to do at his finest with the Giants, nevertheless it’s additionally a safer technique to stay. Jones took hits on practically 31% of his dropbacks between 2023 and 2024 in New York, a determine topped solely by Justin Fields. That determine is down to simply over 21% this season. Fewer hits imply fewer alternatives to get injured.
Accidents might be an issue. No person can predict accidents, nevertheless it’s truthful to at the least be aware that Jones has performed only one full season of soccer in his professional profession because the starter with out lacking time. That risk goes to hold over the Colts, particularly on condition that the untested Leonard is one unhealthy Jones hit away from being their beginning quarterback. On the similar time, including a veteran with a wholesome résumé is not a assure, both; Kirk Cousins had been wholesome for a lot of the prior decade earlier than tearing an Achilles. And Indianapolis’ O-line has been wonderful all through the season. Exterior of dropping Taylor or one thing, the Colts and Jones must be fantastic.
They will not have the ability to throw in adverse recreation scripts. This would possibly find yourself being true. The issue is that no person is ready to get out to a large enough result in discover out. Jones hasn’t taken a single snap trailing by multiple rating all season. Once they have fallen behind, Jones and Taylor have carried out an incredible job of getting the Colts instantly again into the sport. And as soon as they’ve gotten forward, Jones and Taylor have sometimes carried out a wonderful job of maintaining them there.
1:13
Jonathan Taylor goes off with a trio of TDs for Colts
Jonathan Taylor torches the Chargers’ protection, discovering the tip zone 3 times for the Colts.
At 6-1, the Colts are instantly in first place in your complete AFC, not to mention the South. Jones has been one of many gamers of the 12 months to date. It is rapidly changing into harder to poke holes in his success with Steichen and Indianapolis. With one other spectacular win over one of many league’s extra imposing defenses, Jones is firmly establishing himself as a part of the quarterback reclamation class of 2025. He would possibly even find yourself being valedictorian.
