Will Paige Bueckers be an immediate star as a WNBA rookie?

Final 12 months, Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark went from No. 1 choose within the WNBA draft to a top-five end in MVP voting and a spot on the All-WNBA first team. Contemporary off main UConn to its first nationwide championship since 2016, can Paige Bueckers make an identical impression because the presumptive No. 1 choose in Monday’s draft?

Clark did expertise a few of what fellow No. 1 choose Diana Taurasi termed “reality,” notably throughout a brutal start to the schedule. With the Fever schedule front-loaded in opposition to a few of the WNBA’s high groups, together with three matchups every with the Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty within the first 13 video games, Clark shot 37% from the sector and had almost as many turnovers as assists whereas Indiana began 3-10.

By the point Clark returned from the WNBA’s Olympic break, nonetheless, she was one of many league’s most beneficial gamers down the stretch. Over that span, Clark averaged 23.1 PPG and eight.9 APG because the Fever reached the playoffs for the primary time since 2016.

Let’s break down Bueckers’ efficiency at UConn alongside these of Clark at Iowa and different school stars to get a greater thought of what the Dallas Wings can count on in the event that they certainly make her the No. 1 choose Monday.

Selective, environment friendly scorer

In comparison with Clark, a pure scorer, Bueckers is a little more reserved in that regard. She peaked at 21.9 PPG as a junior earlier than dropping to 19.9 as a senior with the arrival of freshman Sarah Strong and the return of Azzi Fudd to the lineup. Bueckers’ highest utilization charge at UConn was 29%; Clark was at 36.5% or increased all 4 years of her school profession.

When the Huskies wanted it, nonetheless, Bueckers confirmed the power to ramp up her scoring — notably throughout the 2025 NCAA match. Having topped 32 factors simply as soon as in her profession (in opposition to Arkansas early in her sophomore season), Bueckers surpassed that mark back-to-back in a second-round win over South Dakota State that was additionally her remaining recreation in Storrs after which in UConn’s Candy 16 win over Oklahoma.

The latter recreation showcased how Bueckers can rating from all three ranges. She shot 6-of-12 on 2-point jumpers, largely pull-ups with the Sooners preserving their publish gamers again in drop protection in opposition to the pick-and-roll, and hit six 3-pointers — matching her profession excessive — in eight makes an attempt.

Though Bueckers could not probably all the time preserve the effectivity of that recreation — when she wanted simply 27 shot makes an attempt and three foul photographs to attain 40 factors — doing extra with much less was a constant theme all through her profession. Bueckers posted a .628 true capturing proportion (TS%), which measures the capturing proportion crucial on completely 2-point makes an attempt to match the entire factors scored, together with 3s and free throws, and was by no means beneath .600.

Amongst guards drafted with the highest choose prior to now 20 years, solely Kelsey Plum‘s senior season at Washington (.657 TS%) has been extra environment friendly than Bueckers’ finest seasons. Earlier than that, it is again to UConn’s 2001-02 title crew, when Taurasi and Sue Chicken had been extra environment friendly than Bueckers as a part of a star-studded beginning 5 that included Naismith Corridor of Famer Swin Money, All-Star Asjha Jones and longtime WNBA starter Tamika Williams-Jeter.

Enjoying on such a stacked crew, Chicken leaned a little bit extra pass-first than Bueckers, averaging 14.4 PPG and 5.9 APG whereas successful nationwide participant of the 12 months honors as a senior with a 21% utilization charge. Nonetheless, she could be one of the best historic comp for Bueckers as a scorer.

Chicken by no means averaged greater than 14.7 PPG within the WNBA, however she equally took over video games together with her scoring when crucial — most notably with 14 points in the fourth quarter of the Seattle Storm‘s Recreation 5 win over Taurasi and the Phoenix Mercury en path to the 2018 WNBA championship.

“It’s virtually assured that Paige Bueckers would be the No. 1 total choose.”@Andraya_Carter and @chiney break down why Paige is anticipated to be the primary off the board within the WNBA draft pic.twitter.com/FLN53ytfRy

— espnW (@espnW) April 8, 2025

Harmful pick-and-roll operator

It is attainable Bueckers has extra offensive potential as a WNBA participant than she confirmed at UConn. In any case, Bueckers wasn’t used as ceaselessly as a pick-and-roll ball handler as Clark. Per Synergy Sports activities monitoring, Bueckers averaged simply 6.4 pick-and-rolls per recreation as a senior that led on to both a shot, journey to the free throw line or turnover by both her or from her preliminary cross.

Distinction that to Clark, who ran 9.3 such pick-and-rolls per recreation as a senior at Iowa, after which was put in these conditions much more ceaselessly within the WNBA. Based on Second Spectrum digital camera monitoring, which incorporates all pick-and-rolls whatever the end result, Clark’s 30.4 per recreation final season led the WNBA.

As a result of we do not but know precisely how first-time head coach Chris Koclanes will run the Dallas offense, we will look to the observe document of Wings government vice chairman and GM Curt Miller as a information. Earlier than becoming a member of the USC teaching workers in 2023, Koclanes spent 5 seasons as an assistant coach beneath Miller with the Connecticut Solar and Los Angeles Sparks. Because the Sparks’ head coach final season, Miller known as for the second-most on-ball screens per recreation within the WNBA, in line with Second Spectrum.

When UConn coach Geno Auriemma did put Bueckers in pick-and-roll conditions this season, the outcomes had been extraordinary. The Huskies averaged 1.2 factors per play, better of any ball handler with at the very least 100 qualifying pick-and-rolls, and shot an efficient 62% from the sector (counting 3-pointers as 1.5 area objectives to mirror their added worth). That is the very best common for any pick-and-roll ball handler on that degree of quantity since Oregon‘s Maite Cazorla in 2018-19.

As a result of Bueckers is a critical scoring risk, WNBA groups will usually be pressured to commit two defenders to her in a pick-and-roll, creating alternatives for Bueckers to seek out open teammates as a distributor. That is one of many large evolutions we noticed from Clark throughout her rookie season. She went from 6.0 APG over the opening 13-game stretch to 9.7 the rest of the schedule. Solely Courtney Vandersloot, with 10.0 per recreation in 2020, has ever averaged extra.

Versatile defender

Once I compared Bueckers to Clark entering the 2024 Final Four, protection was the purpose in her favor. On an injury-plagued UConn crew that sometimes began only one participant (2024 first-round choose Aaliyah Edwards) 6 ft or taller, 5-11 Bueckers stepped ahead as an unbelievable paint defender, main the crew in blocks per recreation.

With Robust’s arrival and 6-4 freshman Jana El Alfy wholesome, Bueckers returned to a extra conventional defensive position on the perimeter. Nonetheless, Bueckers’ mixture of steals and blocks was spectacular. She posted a career-high 3.5 steals per 100 opponent performs and blocked 3% of opponent 2-point makes an attempt.

The listing of top-five picks in my database who’ve reached each of these thresholds is affected by stars: Money, Jones, Taurasi, Alana Beard, Angel McCoughtry, Maya Moore, Candace Parker, Devereaux Peters and Gabby Williams. (By the way, LSU ahead Aneesah Morrow will even qualify if she’s taken on this 12 months’s high 5.)

Given Bueckers’ small stature and what’s going to probably be a heavy offensive load, I doubt she will likely be a defensive standout like a few of the gamers in that group. Nonetheless, it is one other indication of how Bueckers’ skill to learn performs and measurement for some extent guard make her worthwhile. Enjoying in what could possibly be an undersized perimeter trio with 5-8 Arike Ogunbowale and 5-11 stopper DiJonai Carrington with the Wings, Bueckers can be able to sliding down to protect some small forwards when Carrington is serving as an on-ball defender.

Expectations as a rookie

Chicken and Clark share the excellence of being the lone WNBA rookies straight out of faculty ever to common 10 PPG and 5 APG of their first season, a bunch Bueckers ought to aspire to hitch. Simply 11 gamers, together with Ogunbowale, reached these marks final season. Add in Bueckers’ effectivity and defensive contributions and doing so would instantly put her within the higher half of WNBA level guards.

Like Clark, Bueckers might moderately get her crew again to the playoffs as a rookie. Dallas is 2 seasons faraway from going 22-18 in 2023, and whereas the Wings have misplaced two key members of that crew in forwards Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally, they’ve added Carrington and forwards Myisha Hines-Allen and NaLyssa Smith.

Bueckers herself would possibly show the most important improve, given how little manufacturing Dallas acquired from level guards Jacy Sheldon and Sevgi Uzun, each now departed. They mixed for 9.8 PPG and 5.5 APG, manufacturing Bueckers alone might plausibly match whereas dramatically enhancing upon their 28% 3-point capturing.

It is not lifelike for Bueckers to place up the sort of monster per-game stats Clark did as a rookie, when she completed within the high 10 in WNBA scoring and led the league in assists. Bueckers would possibly by no means attain these heights, and Chicken’s Naismith Corridor of Fame profession exhibits it is attainable to be one of many league’s finest gamers anyway. There’s precedent for what we will count on, however Bueckers will carve her personal path as a professional.