Hungary’s newly elected chief, Peter Magyar, stormed to energy final weekend after campaigning to, amongst different issues, take a step again from Russia.
As a substitute, Magyar has promised voters he’ll steer Hungary again in the direction of the European Union, following the 16-year rule of far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who went to nice lengths to deepen ties with Russia.
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Underneath Orban, Hungary opposed a lot of the European Union’s stances in opposition to Russia and blocked sanctions and obstructed army help for Ukraine.
Above all, he and his Fidesz get together entrenched Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil.
Now, following a large electoral turnout and a landslide victory, Magyar – as soon as a devotee of Orban and now chief of the centre-right Tisza get together – has promised to finish Russian oil imports by 2035. However how real looking a aim is that? And may he obtain it?
How a lot does Hungary rely on Russia for power?
Hungary has been central to holding Russian oil and gasoline flowing into the EU, whilst Europe and the US banned some imports and imposed sanctions on anybody paying greater than $60 a barrel for Russian oil.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU banned seaborne imports of Russian oil however stored land flows authorized. That allowed Hungary to proceed importing most of its crude by pipeline through Ukraine.
The EU first introduced plans to section out Russian power imports in Might 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In December 2025, a binding settlement was made for member nations to fully section out Russian oil and gasoline imports by late 2027. However, as a substitute of diversifying from Moscow, Hungary elevated its dependency.
In keeping with a 2026 report by the Heart for the Examine of Democracy (CSD), Hungary had expanded its reliance on Russian crude from 61 % in 2021 to 93 % by 2025.
A lot of the crude oil Hungary imports from Russia comes through the Druzhba pipeline. It is among the key pipelines that ensures the continued movement of Russian crude to each Hungary and Slovakia. At 5,500 km (3,420 miles) lengthy, it begins in Almetyevsk in western Russia and runs into Belarus. It splits at Mozyr, with one department going to Poland and Germany and the southern department goes by means of Ukraine into Slovakia, Hungary and Czechia.
In January, the part of the pipeline operating by means of Ukraine suffered important injury. Ukraine blamed a Russian airstrike – Moscow denies that.
Hungary and Slovakia have complained that Ukraine has been intentionally sluggish to restore the injury. Because of this, in March, Orban vetoed a 90 billion euro ($106bn) mortgage from the EU to Ukraine till the pipeline reopens.
On Tuesday this week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned oil will movement once more by means of the conduit by the tip of April as he expects the brand new Hungarian management to carry its veto on the mortgage by then.
As for gasoline, Hungary stays one of the crucial dependent EU member states on Russian pure gasoline, accounting for roughly three-quarters of its annual imports, the CSD report reveals.
For the reason that begin of Russia’s invasion, Hungary has imported an estimated 15.6 billion euros ($18.4bn) value of Russian gasoline. Lengthy-term contracts with Russia’s state-owned Gazprom, the continued reliance on TurkStream – a pure gasoline pipeline operating from Russia to Turkiye – and “the weak use of different interconnectors have locked the nation into Russia’s reconfigured gasoline export system”, the CSD report states.
Nuclear power dependency is yet one more subject. Hungary granted Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear power company, the development contract for the enlargement of its Paks atomic plant, 100km (62 miles) southwest of Budapest on the Danube River. Russia, in flip, supplied Hungary with a state mortgage to finance a lot of the improvement of latest reactors. The European Fee accredited the plan in 2017 and building began in February.
Now, Magyar says he intends to reassess the undertaking’s financing. However the Paks plant offers 40 to 50 % of all electrical energy generated in Hungary. The enlargement plans will improve that to between 60 and 70 %, which might lower reliance on imported power, however preserve Hungary tied to Russia.
In keeping with a 2025 joint research paper by the Heart for the Examine of Democracy and the Heart for Analysis on Vitality and Clear Air, Hungary may doubtlessly diversify its power provide by importing non-Russian oil through different sources such because the Adria pipeline. It transports crude from the Adriatic Sea to refineries in Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia. Their refiners, that are managed by Hungarian oil and gasoline firm MOL, are able to processing non-Russian crude, the analysis paper mentioned.
Russian oil has been coming in at a reduced charge on account of Western sanctions, so any diversification will seemingly be costlier.
Can Hungary wean itself off its dependence on Russian oil?
It gained’t be simple, and Magyar is aware of it. “The geographical place of neither Russia nor Hungary will change. Our power publicity may also be right here for some time,” he mentioned earlier than final weekend’s election. And in an interview with the Monetary Occasions, Magyar insisted that Russian imports ought to stay an choice. “This doesn’t imply that by ending dependence on somebody you not proceed to purchase from them,” he mentioned.
Magyar will search to strike a steadiness between respecting present contracts with Moscow to make sure Hungary’s power safety, whereas establishing political distance, mentioned Pawel Zerka, a senior coverage fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations.
“I’d count on this authorities to not be pro-Russia within the sense of going to Moscow and holding ties with the Russian authorities, however they don’t have simple choices to interchange Russian gas with one thing else, particularly contemplating the worldwide state of affairs with the Center East,” Zerka mentioned, referring to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz within the Gulf which has blocked the transport of 20 % of the world’s oil and LNG provides.
Zerka added that the newly elected chief won’t have political room to be notably cordial with Russian President Vladimir Putin, contemplating the disapproval of Russia by his electoral base. A current ballot by the European Council on Overseas Relations shows {that a} majority of Tisza’s voters see Russia as an adversary or rival to compete with.
“It is going to be attention-grabbing to see how he combines this with power wants,” Zerka mentioned.
How does the EU view Hungary’s power ties to Russia?
The sturdy power ties between Russia and Hungary have lengthy brought about friction with the EU. Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European bloc has labored to chop imports of Russian oil and gasoline. Budapest has achieved the other.
In January, the EU handed laws to fully section out Russian gasoline and LNG imports by late 2027.
Orban’s authorities had referred to as for all restrictions on Russian oil to be lifted on account of the worldwide power disaster triggered by the warfare within the Center East. Whereas Trump has made some concessions on Russian oil already loaded on tankers at sea – inflicting a number of heading for China to head to India instead – EU leaders have maintained they may maintain agency on sanctions.
Within the lead-up to final weekend’s election, Magyar’s manifesto referred to as the dependence on Russian power a “systemic danger” and he would wean Hungary off its reliance by 2035. However whether or not he can try this in time to beat the EU’s 2027 deadline is more likely to provoke dialogue in Brussels.
