The journey started in August with 136 groups hoping to style postseason glory. Throughout 15 weeks of twists and turns, the solid was narrowed to 12. Prior to now month, favorites have fallen, heroes have emerged, and finally, simply two groups have discovered their approach to Exhausting Rock Stadium in Miami, the place a champion shall be topped.
Miami and Indiana will face off (7:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 19) to find out this season’s champion, a matchup few would possibly’ve anticipated when the yr started. So many big moments have turned on a mystifying scramble or a shoestring deal with or, often, a bit of luck. However what’s clear after watching the Hurricanes and the Hoosiers march by means of the 2025-26 season is these two groups have earned their place within the title recreation, and the matchup figures to be probably the greatest this season has to supply. — David Hale
When: Jan. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we realized within the semifinal: Carson Beck can carry this staff. Few gamers have endured the extent of criticism Beck has up to now two years, for struggles actual and perceived, on the sector and off. He has managed it with grace, endearing himself to his teammates, and, regardless of two irritating midseason failures, he has delivered Miami to the promised land. If there had been any doubts about whether or not Miami gained due to, or despite, Beck, the QB provided an emphatic answer within the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, driving the Canes 75 yards on 15 performs and capping a game-defining and program-altering scramble into the top zone that carried Miami previous Ole Miss. Beck confronted 15 third downs within the recreation. He transformed 11 of them, finishing 7 of 9 throws and working for 25 yards. “The final two video games, you in all probability hadn’t seen him throwing it sufficient,” receiver Keelan Marion stated after the Fiesta Bowl win, “however the run recreation — that was the sport plan. We needed to make the most of what they offer us. However we knew he might do that.”
X issue: The cross rush. Within the first two playoff video games, Miami’s defensive entrance, led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr., dominated, racking up 12 sacks. Towards Ole Miss within the semifinal, Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels’ fast cross recreation stymied the Canes’ aggressive unit, and it completed with only one sack — on the primary drive of the sport. Bain and Mesidor had been largely restricted all through. Chambliss and the Rebels might need provided a blueprint for methods to negate Miami’s greatest weapon within the loss. That the Canes’ D additionally flubbed not less than 4 probabilities at interceptions and price itself some critical subject place with penalties — together with a backbreaking name late within the fourth quarter that arrange an Ole Miss rating — solely underscored the priority. However activate the tape from the earlier six video games, and it is easy to see that Bain & Co. will not be held at bay eternally. They’re too good, too robust, too relentless to let the Canes’ season finish with no battle.
They’ll win if… The Canes could be the extra essentially sound staff. To look at the Fiesta Bowl was a research in frustration for Miami followers. The ability run recreation dominated, however too usually, the Canes received cute on offense and a drive fizzled. Beck appeared to have a receiver working open for a rating on two events, just for the throw to be off-target. The cross rush that had been dominant was hemmed in by Ole Miss’s recreation plan. The protection was strong, however allowed too many chunk performs, together with Kewan Lacy‘s 73-yard landing run. The DBs, so efficient earlier within the playoff, dropped one potential interception after one other which may’ve turned an in depth recreation right into a blowout. Miami missed its fourth subject aim try of the postseason. The Canes had 10 penalties, lots of them in vital moments. Miami gained regardless of all that, however the recreation was way more dramatic than it ought to have been. Within the title recreation, Miami is unlikely to have the identical luck in overcoming its self-inflicted miscues, and so the sport plan and execution need to be much better. The story of Miami’s current historical past has been, too usually, that of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That it escaped one other catastrophe within the Fiesta Bowl is proof of Miami’s expertise and likewise a reminder that the margin for error at this level within the yr is razor-thin. — Hale
What we realized within the semifinal: The Hoosiers are an absolute juggernaut. Indiana cornerback D’Angelo Ponds picked off a cross from Oregon quarterback Dante Moore on the primary snap of the sport and coasted in for a landing, setting the tone for the approaching onslaught. As they’ve all season, the Hoosiers dominated the road of scrimmage on each side of the ball. The protection rattled Moore and shut down the Oregon working recreation whereas leaping to a 35-7 halftime lead. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, in the meantime, was practically flawless, finishing 17 of 20 passes for 177 yards. By way of two playoff video games, Mendoza, the presumptive No. 1 decide within the upcoming NFL draft, has extra landing passes (8) than incompletions (5). For the reason that begin of the Rose Bowl in opposition to Alabama, the Hoosiers have totaled 94 factors, piled up 770 yards of offense and blasted the Crimson Tide and Geese by a mixed margin of 69 factors. The Hoosiers even delivered an exclamation level within the fourth quarter with a blocked punt, which arrange yet one more Mendoza landing. Indiana is now one win from finishing one of the beautiful — but resounding — championship runs in faculty soccer historical past.
X issue: The Hurricanes characteristic an elite defensive position, led by a pair of blue-chip cross rushers in Mesidor and Bain. However Indiana’s defensive entrance has additionally been smothering, particularly this postseason. Since its Large Ten championship victory over Ohio State, Indiana has taken away the working recreation and harassed the quarterback. The Buckeyes, Crimson Tide and Geese mixed to hurry for simply 174 yards whereas averaging solely 2.5 yards per carry in opposition to the Hoosiers. Indiana’s swarming stress additionally pressured Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (a Heisman finalist), Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and Moore — each projected to go within the first spherical of the draft — into their worst performances of the yr. The Hurricanes’ gifted and bruising offensive line figures to offer the most important take a look at but for Indiana’s relentless defensive entrance. However the Hoosiers will take a look at Miami within the trenches, too.
They’ll win if… The Hoosiers maintain enjoying the way in which they’ve performed all yr. The Hurricanes are formidable, particularly up entrance. Beck has been spectacular in Miami’s previous two playoff wins, particularly on third down and in key conditions. The Hurricanes additionally boast a number of dynamic playmakers, headlined by working again Mark Fletcher Jr. and receiver Malachi Toney. However does Indiana have any weaknesses? The Hoosiers have outscored opponents by 473 factors this yr. Based on ESPN Analysis, that ties 2019 Clemson for the most important level differential coming into a nationwide championship recreation within the playoff period, courting again to 2014. Indiana would be the betting favourite within the title recreation for a cause. — Jake Trotter
