It has been lower than two weeks for the reason that 2026 males’s NCAA event subject was set — and it is already right down to the Elite Eight.
ESPN’s school basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their predictions for Saturday’s Illinois-Iowa and Arizona-Purdue matchups. Additionally they break down the keys to every crew advancing to the Remaining 4.
6:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Illinois, 72-66
Medcalf’s prediction: Illinois, 77-70
How Illinois can advance to the Remaining 4: If Illinois can proceed its current defensive type, it ought to beat Iowa and have an actual probability at successful a nationwide championship. The Illini held VCU and Houston to 55 factors apiece of their previous two video games, and have now held 5 of their previous 10 opponents to fewer than one level per possession. The physicality of Kylan Boswell on the level of assault mixed with their dimension and size on the wings, and their rim safety, means they’ve sufficient to at the least try to take Bennett Stirtz out of his recreation. Stirtz had solely 12 factors on 17 pictures within the first assembly between the 2 Massive Ten groups.
Offensively, Illinois can have the sting on the offensive glass — the Illini rank within the high 5 nationally in second-chance factors per recreation. Iowa additionally ranked final within the convention in defensive free throw fee. One other key could possibly be whether or not Illinois has success attending to the foul line.
0:49
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 3 Illinois recreation preview
Take a look at some stats on Illinois’ Elite 8 matchup with Iowa within the NCAA males’s event.
How Iowa can advance to the Remaining 4: Iowa’s largest power within the NCAA event has been its means to manage the tempo. The Hawkeyes’ first-round recreation in opposition to Clemson featured 54 possessions — the slowest recreation both crew performed all season. Their second-round win over Florida noticed the fewest possessions the Gators have had all season. And their Candy 16 win over Nebraska was the slowest recreation the Cornhuskers have performed all season. Can Iowa do the identical to Illinois? The primary assembly between the 2 Massive Ten groups was nearer to the Illini’s most popular tempo, though the Hawkeyes falling behind early and never being constructed for comebacks was the larger issue.
Two extra keys for Iowa: Stirtz has to win the purpose guard battle in opposition to Boswell and Keaton Wagler, and the Hawkeyes should maintain Illinois — the Massive Ten’s finest offensive rebounding crew — from dominating second-chance alternatives. — Borzello
8:49 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Arizona, 81-74
Medcalf’s prediction: Arizona, 85-82
How Arizona can advance to the Remaining 4: Although Purdue has extra curiosity in enjoying protection than Arkansas, Arizona will nonetheless have an advantageous matchup in opposition to the Boilermakers at that finish of the courtroom. Purdue gave up practically 1.27 factors per possession to Texas within the Candy 16, and the Boilermakers have given up at the least 1.05 factors per possession in 10 of their previous 11 video games. They had been solely 14th within the Massive Ten in 2-point protection. In different phrases, Arizona simply wants to stay to its identification and look to assault the paint at each alternative.
Brayden Burries or Jaden Bradley ought to be capable of get into the lane off the dribble persistently, and Motiejus Krivas, Tobe Awaka and Koa Peat ought to have probabilities within the submit. Arizona does not shoot many 3s, but it surely’s price noting that Purdue was one of many worst 3-point defenses within the Massive Ten, so the Wildcats might get a few further open pictures.
Defensively, it is about Bradley and Burries not letting Braden Smith function with freedom within the half courtroom. They’re each bodily sufficient to make life troublesome for him.
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No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona recreation preview
Take a look at some stats on the matchup between Purdue and Arizona within the males’s NCAA event.
How Purdue can advance to the Remaining 4: The point of interest of their recreation plan needs to be retaining Arizona from utterly dominating the paint at each ends of the courtroom. The Wildcats are dominant on the offensive glass, across the rim and get to the free throw line at an extremely excessive fee. Purdue, which had the second-best defensive rebounding share within the Massive Ten, must maintain its personal on the backboards whereas staying out of foul hassle. Daniel Jacobsen‘s struggles down the stretch of the season have put rather more urgency on Oscar Cluff to remain on the courtroom. If he’s compelled to sit down for lengthy stretches, that will not bode properly for the Boilermakers.
Offensively, Fletcher Loyer would be the key. Purdue has to get scorching from 3 to maintain up with Arizona’s 2-point effectivity, and Loyer has made 4 3s in every of the Boilermakers’ three NCAA event video games. — Borzello
