College Football Playoff 2025 first-round takeaways

The primary spherical of the 2025 College Football Playoff is full. After final yr’s run of residence blowouts, we noticed the other within the first two video games: a pair of nip-and-tuck ballgames with wild particular groups swings and, thanks largely to turnovers, a pair of highway victors (after residence groups had been 4-0 within the first spherical final yr). Alabama pulled off a 17-point comeback to beat Oklahoma 34-24 on Friday evening, then Miami survived the last word battle of attrition in School Station, beating Texas A&M 10-3.

That wasn’t the case within the remaining two video games. Ole Miss overwhelmed Tulane of their first recreation with out coach Lane Kiffin. Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss accounted for greater than 300 complete yards and three touchdowns within the 41-10 victory. Oregon jumped out to an enormous first-half lead towards James Madison and cruised to a simple 51-34 win.

Listed below are the primary takeaways from the primary spherical.

Bounce to a recreation: JMU-Oregon | Tulane-Ole Miss | Miami-A&M | Bama-OU

What simply occurred?

Over the previous three seasons, Oregon has gone a mixed 37-4, with losses solely to a nationwide champion (2024 Ohio State), a nationwide finalist (2023 Washington, twice) and the present unbeaten No. 1 seed (Indiana). When you aren’t a real title risk, you evidently haven’t got an opportunity towards the Geese, and James Madison most definitely did not have an opportunity Saturday evening in Eugene.

The Dukes, making their playoff debut, acquitted themselves effectively sufficient on offense, ultimately gaining 509 yards and scoring 34 regardless of leaving a number of factors on the board with failed pink zone alternatives. However their protection, so good throughout the Solar Belt, obtained obliterated by an limitless early stream of Oregon big-play threats. JMU pulled off a fairly high-wire act in 2025, taking dangers, maintaining defenders within the field and leaving their perimeter defenders in remoted conditions. The Dukes obtained away with it towards Louisville, permitting simply 264 yards and 21 offensive factors. However Oregon’s offensive line is far, a lot better than Louisville’s, and JMU could not create any disruption. That solely left the large performs. Within the first half, the Dukes created zero tackles for loss and gave up 5 positive factors of 30-plus yards.

Oregon scored touchdowns on its first 5 possessions and did not punt till halfway by way of the third quarter. Dante Moore made nice throws, and when he did not, his receivers made nice catches as his first 13 completions gained 307 yards. JMU made issues annoying in rubbish time, gaining 194 fourth-quarter yards and giving Oregon coach Dan Lanning a number of issues to yell about over the following few days, however the Geese had this one put away early.

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Dante Moore lets it fly to Malik Benson for a TD

Dante Moore finds Malik Benson to increase Oregon’s lead vs. JMU.

Influence performs

As with Ole Miss-Tulane, whenever you’re closely favored and instantly lay the hammer down, “win chance added” is not a really useful idea. However as a result of I am a completionist, here is the win chance chart. JMU wanted a quick begin and obtained the other.

See you subsequent fall, Dukes

The monetary hole between mid-majors and the richest energy convention applications has grown immensely over the previous 15 years or so, significantly with the upward stream of expertise on this transfers-and-NIL universe (to not point out coaches, reminiscent of JMU’s UCLA-bound Bob Chesney). It’s tougher than ever for a Group of 5 group to trace at elite play like Boise State, TCU and Utah did within the late 2000s. (That stated, a reminder: The Dukes would have been projected favorites over ACC champion Duke. We nonetheless might need gotten a greater playoff for his or her inclusion.)

JMU is constructed to proceed to play at a excessive degree throughout the Solar Belt, particularly with new coach Billy Napier, the creator of a very bodily and spectacular run at Louisiana earlier than his tenure at Florida. However the Dukes obtained a fairly clear indication of what may await if or after they make one other run towards the CFP. Can they elevate their recreation additional?

What’s subsequent

When the playoff discipline was revealed two weeks in the past, the very first thing that caught my eye was the tantalizing prospect of an Oregon-Texas Tech quarterfinal. Oregon continues to be comparatively new cash so far as faculty soccer bluebloods go, and Tech is model spanking new cash. They’re each top-four in SP+, and so they have achieved a number of the finest portal work within the nation of late. They’ll meet within the Orange Bowl early on Jan. 1.

Can Oregon play the identical sort of exact and ridiculously quick ball towards a Texas Tech defensive entrance that hasn’t been crushed a lot this season? Can Behren Morton and Tech’s explosive, however inconsistent, offense take what they’re given and keep away from forcing the difficulty an excessive amount of towards an Oregon protection that forestalls large performs effectively and punishes impatience (however did somewhat an excessive amount of bending towards JMU)? It is probably the most fascinating quarterfinal matchup.

What simply occurred?

Ole Miss‘ offense was simply too sharp, and Tulane‘s Jake Retzlaff was simply too error-prone. In entrance of a file Vaught-Hemingway Stadium crowd of 68,201, the host Rebels gained 135 yards on their first seven snaps and bolted to a 14-0 lead. Tulane held up for the remainder of the primary half and, trailing 17-3 at halftime, had an opportunity to get again into the sport to start out the second half. As a substitute, the Inexperienced Wave punted, turned the ball over on downs and misplaced two fumbles, each by Retzlaff. The Rebels had been comfortable to capitalize on quick fields and run up the rating.

As his former college, Ferris State, was nearly concurrently profitable one other Division II nationwide title, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss performed an nearly good recreation. Regardless of lacking a number of snaps due to harm on the finish of the primary half, he accomplished 23 of 29 passes for 282 yards and a landing whereas gaining 51 yards on 4 non-sack rushes. Operating again Kewan Lacy additionally missed time due to a shoulder harm, however returned to the sport and completed with 87 yards in simply 15 carries. A deep receiving corps obtained robust video games from three receivers: Deuce Alexander, De’Zhaun Stribling and tight finish Dae’Quan Wright mixed for 16 catches and 230 yards. Tulane’s offense made far too many errors, but it surely most likely wasn’t going to matter: The Rebels had been going to attain an excessive amount of regardless.

Influence performs

Once you begin as the favourite, instantly leap out to a stable lead and do not actually look again, we aren’t going to see many enormous performs from a win chance standpoint. However after the Rebels went up 7-0, Tulane put collectively a stable 10-play drive in response. However Jaylon Braxton picked off a poor move from Retzlaff, and after a brief return and a horse collar penalty, the Rebels began their second drive at their 40. That popped their win chance up from 87.2% to 91.4%. 4 performs later, it was 14-0. Their win chance did not drop under 91% for the remainder of the sport.

See you subsequent fall, Inexperienced Wave

This was clearly a very disappointing end to the Jon Sumrall period. The newly employed Florida coach led the Inexperienced Wave to twenty wins in two seasons, plus a convention title (and wins over Northwestern and Duke) this season. However his group simply wasn’t sharp Saturday. Missed tackles, dropped passes and quarterback errors weren’t an excellent reflection of how effectively they performed down the stretch to safe a bid.

Nonetheless, Tulane has positioned itself as one of many strongest applications within the Group of 5. The Inexperienced Wave have gained 43 video games in 4 seasons underneath first Willie Fritz after which Sumrall. Now, Will Corridor, a former Fritz and Sumrall assistant, takes over. He’ll need to climate the switch portal strikes as energy convention applications come for profitable G5 expertise, however the Inexperienced Wave are as well-positioned as anybody to maintain profitable.

What’s subsequent

Ole Miss performed effectively down the stretch as rumors swirled round Lane Kiffin’s potential departure, and of their first recreation post-Kiffin, they had been completely dynamite. And now they get an opportunity to avenge their solely lack of 2025. In a 43-35 resolution at Georgia in Week 8, the Rebels led by 9 into the fourth quarter till the Dawgs turned the tables late. Now, Ole Miss and Georgia will face off within the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

The important thing to revenge might be the Ole Miss run protection. Georgia cranked out 221 speeding yards towards the Rebels, organising Gunner Stockton with wholesome downs and distances, and he responded by going 26-for-31 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns (plus 59 speeding yards of his personal). Run protection has been a weak point all season, and Tulane’s Jamauri McClure discovered some success on Saturday night, speeding 15 instances for 84 yards. Chambliss definitely discovered some classes in Athens, and the Rebels’ offense definitely would not thoughts a monitor meet. However forcing the Dawgs off-schedule might be key to an upset and a visit to the semifinals.

What simply occurred?

Three of the sloppiest, windiest, most war-of-attrition quarters in current faculty soccer historical past adopted by an unbelievable, dramatic fourth quarter. Miami’s Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed 17 instances for 172 yards, and his 56-yard cost with 4:01 left arrange the sport’s solely landing, an 11-yard jet sweep from Malachi Toney. It regarded as if A&M would power extra time — or rating and go for 2 factors and the win — however Bryce Fitzgerald picked off a misplaced Marcel Reed move ultimately zone with 23 seconds left, and the Hurricanes kneeled out a highway win.

In a recreation performed in extraordinarily windy circumstances, the primary three quarters featured extra missed discipline targets (4) than factors (3), however a pleasant run of passes from Reed arrange Randy Bond‘s game-tying 35-yarder. Toney’s fumble close to midfield with 7:11 left appeared to set the Aggies up for a significant alternative. However Rueben Bain Jr. recorded his third sack of the sport to power a punt that arrange heroics from Fletcher and redemption for Toney.

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Miami’s INT in finish zone seals CFP First Spherical victory

Marcel Reed makes an inaccurate throw and Bryce Fitzgerald picks it off ultimately zone to seal Miami’s win over Texas A&M.

A&M outgained Miami 326-278 and completed six drives in Canes territory, however Reed turnovers ended two of these probabilities and a missed discipline objective ended one. Miami did not cowl itself in glory on this regard, both — six drives completed in A&M territory, producing solely two scores — however two scores are better than one. Quarterback Carson Beck completed the sport 14-for-20 for 103 yards and, technically, a landing move off of the jet sweep. However he prevented essential errors and that ended up being a deciding issue. Reed produced extra yards (he completed 25-for-39 for 237 yards, plus 27 speeding yards), however the turnovers had been devastating.

Influence performs

The win chance chart barely moved over the course of the primary three quarters, but it surely reached 67.1% for A&M following Toney’s fumble. Nevertheless, some key performs made it lurch in Miami’s route. As was the case for many of 2025, A&M completely owned third downs, going 8-for-18 (44.4%) whereas holding the Hurricanes to simply 3-for-12 (25%). However Toney’s third-down rating and Fitzgerald’s third-down decide obtained the job achieved.

See you subsequent fall, Aggies

Generally you peak somewhat too early. Texas A&M moved to 9-0 in early November with demonstrative wins over LSU and Missouri, however the Aggies underachieved towards SP+ projections by a median of 18.1 factors per recreation over their final 4. They wanted an enormous comeback to beat South Carolina, then scored simply 20 mixed factors in losses to Texas and Miami. The protection had a big-play problem at instances — one thing Fletcher definitely took benefit of — however whenever you quit 10 complete factors, it is best to win each time.

Nonetheless, a disappointing end would not negate the truth that the Aggies had been forward of schedule this fall. Beginning Mike Elko’s second season at nineteenth within the AP ballot, A&M gained 11 video games for the primary time because the Johnny Manziel-led 2012 marketing campaign. The Aggies went 12-13 in Jimbo Fisher’s final two years, however Elko is now 19-7, and A&M most likely will not be beginning a season nineteenth or decrease for fairly some time. Elko will head into 2026 with two new coordinators after defensive coordinator Jay Bateman was allowed to go away for a similar place at Kentucky and offensive coordinator Collin Klein took the Kansas State head teaching gig (Elko promoted Lyle Hemphill and Holmon Wiggins, respectively, as replacements). Elko should change some severe expertise within the trenches, too, led by star defensive finish Cashius Howell. However the passing recreation contains primarily underclassmen, and the move speeding expertise would not cease at Howell. Elko’s constructing job ought to proceed.

What’s subsequent

The Hurricanes meet No. 2 Ohio State within the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31. With Bain’s unbelievable play and Miami’s usually implausible defensive efficiency, there’s motive to consider they may maintain the Buckeyes’ level complete tamped down. However Ohio State’s protection is one of the best within the nation; it held Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and Indiana to 13 factors within the Huge Ten championship recreation and has allowed 300 complete yards simply twice in 13 video games. The Buckeyes will not supply Fletcher the identical large run alternatives, so Beck should make all of the performs he did not make Saturday afternoon. Can he?

These are questions for New Yr’s Eve. For now, Miami will get to have a good time its most momentous win since when, 2002? Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes fell simply in need of the CFP in 2024 and really simply may have missed out on this go-round as effectively. However they snagged a bid, and in a windy battle of wills in School Station, they held their nerve and prevented the errors that A&M couldn’t. From relations to Michael Irvin, Cristobal was discovering too many individuals to have a good time with to pay a lot consideration to his postgame interview. He can most likely be forgiven, huh?

What simply occurred?

Oklahoma’s offense had solely 20 minutes in it. The Sooners had been good out of the gate, bursting to a 17-0 lead towards an Alabama group that regarded fully unprepared for the second. However the Crimson Tide adjusted and rallied, and OU had solely a short reply. From 17 down, Bama outscored its hosts 34-7 from there.

We use the phrase “momentum” far an excessive amount of in soccer, however this was an extraordinarily momentum-based recreation.

1. Over the primary 19 minutes, Oklahoma went up 17-0 whereas outgaining Bama by a shocking 181-12 margin. It may have been worse, too, because the Sooners’ Owen Heinecke got here inside millimeters of a blocked punt that may have produced a security or a landing.

2. Over the following 21 minutes, Bama outscored the Sooners 27-0, outgaining them 194-59. Freshman Lotzeir Brooks caught two landing passes — the primary on a fourth-and-2 to lastly get Bama on the board (after he caught an enormous third-down move earlier within the drive), and the second TD got here on a 30-yard lob that put the Tide up for good. The Tide protection obtained stress on John Mateer, and his footwork and composure vanished. An egregious pick-six thrown on to Zabien Brown tied the rating, and Bama scored the primary 10 factors of the second half as effectively.

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Zabien Brown stuns OU with game-tying pick-six earlier than halftime

Zabien Brown takes a big-time interception 50 yards to the home to tie the rating earlier than halftime.

OU responded briefly, reducing the margin to a few factors early within the fourth quarter because of a 37-yard Deion Burks landing. However the Sooners’ offense could not do sufficient, and kicker Tate Sandell, the Groza Award winner, missed two late discipline objective makes an attempt to guarantee a Bama win.

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Tate Sandell’s back-to-back FG misses assist Alabama safe 1st-round win

Tate Sandell misses a pair of late discipline targets as Alabama holds on to beat Oklahoma 34-24 within the CFP first spherical.

Influence performs

Oklahoma beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in November — within the recreation that ultimately licensed the Sooners’ CFP bid — because of a pick-six and particular groups dominance. However the tables turned fully in Norman. Brown’s pick-six was enormous, and particular groups deserted the Sooners, each with Sandell’s misses and a botched punt within the second quarter.

The botched punt was the second of a two-part sequence that turned the sport towards the Sooners. First, Mateer handed up a simple third-and-3 conversion to throw downfield to a wide-open Xavier Robinson, however Mateer short-armed the move and Robinson dropped it. On the following snap, punter Grayson Miller dropped the ball whereas transferring into his punting movement. Bama’s Tim Keenan III recovered the ball on the OU 30, and although OU’s protection held the Tide to a discipline objective, what may have been a 24-3 OU lead was a 17-10 benefit. That set the desk for Brown’s pick-six and every little thing that adopted.

The blown early lead leaves Oklahoma with fairly the ignominious feat: Within the historical past of the School Soccer Playoff, groups are 28-2 with a 17-point lead: OU is 0-2, and everybody else is 28-0. Ouch.

See you subsequent fall, Sooners

We knew that every time Oklahoma’s season ended, offense could be the first motive. The Sooners survived enjoying with nearly no margin for error for many of the yr. Their No. 49 rating in offensive SP+ was the worst of any CFP group, however they obtained sufficient protection (third in defensive SP+), particular groups (twenty first in particular groups SP+) and high quality pink zone play to beat it.

The Sooners’ protection nonetheless performed effectively Friday evening — Bama gained solely 260 complete yards (4.8 per play) — however the particular groups miscues put extra stress on the offense, and after an excellent begin, it ran out of steam. Mateer started the sport 10-for-15 for 132 yards with a landing, 26 speeding yards and a speeding TD, however his final 31 move makes an attempt gained simply 149 yards with 5 sacks and the decide, and his final 9 non-sack rushes gained simply 15 yards.

Brent Venables heads into the offseason going through some selections. OU’s offense technically improved after the big-money additions of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and Mateer, however Mateer was scattershot earlier than his midseason hand harm and poor after it. Do the Sooners run it again with the identical roster core, hoping that higher well being and a theoretically improved run recreation can provide the protection what it must take OU to the following degree? Does Venables hit the reset button once more? Can he ever get all of the arrows pointed in the appropriate route on the identical time?

What’s subsequent

Alabama’s reward for the comeback win is a visit out West: The Tide will meet unbeaten and top-seeded Indiana within the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Bama’s protection will clearly face a stiffer take a look at from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ assault, however Bama’s protection has been principally up for the take a look at this season. The Tide’s capability to drag an upset might be decided by Ty Simpson and the Alabama passing recreation.

Simpson started Friday evening’s win simply 2-for-6 with a sack, and although he improved from there and did not throw any interceptions — his remaining passing line: 18-for-29 for 232 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 sacks (6.0 yards per try) — his footwork nonetheless betrayed him fairly a bit throughout the recreation, and he misfired on fairly a number of passes. Oklahoma’s move rush is fearsome, however Indiana’s protection ranks seventh in sack charge, and with nearly no blitzing. The Hoosiers generate stress and clog passing lanes, and so they held Oregon‘s Dante Moore and Ohio State‘s Julian Sayin to five.1 yards per dropback with 11 sacks, 2 touchdowns and three picks. Bama might be an underdog for a motive.

However kudos to the Tide for getting off the mat. They had been lifeless in the beginning, lacking tackles and blocks and looking out as unprepared as they did of their season-opening loss to Florida State. However Brooks’ playmaking lit the fuse, and Bama charged again.