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Invoice Connelly
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry video games and a great deal of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we try to separate the distinction. This week provides us high-stakes helmet video games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry video games each bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, typically, foolish (Ole Miss-Arkansas). However most of all, it provides us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and will not have a ton of high quality win alternatives to beat a possible 0-2 begin. Clemson and Georgia have not regarded the half but and may very well be severely punished if they do not shift into gear. Supposed Large 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a mixed 2-3 and may’t wait for much longer to show into the groups they had been presupposed to be. And each Florida and Virginia Tech performed their coaches onto extremely scorching seats with jarring second-half collapses final week. So many fan bases are both fuming or about to be.
The primary two weeks had been enjoyable in numerous methods. Now it is time to get anxious. Here is every little thing you have to comply with in Week 3.
All occasions are Japanese, and all video games are Saturday until in any other case famous.
Bounce to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
Extra:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Scorching seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and final Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, permitting simply 10.4 factors per sport and, presumably, enjoying head coach Billy Napier off of the recent seat.
Then the Gators misplaced to USF. They settled for area objectives early and gave up simply sufficient large performs (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It occurred the way in which quite a lot of upsets occur, and USF would possibly turn into an superior workforce. However Florida now faces an absurd run that includes journeys to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a go to from No. 7 Texas, within the subsequent month. Napier went from fairly protected to all but done in a heartbeat.
He isn’t alone, not less than. Beginning the season towards South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech bought outscored by a mixed 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. In contrast to Florida, they’ve a rebound alternative with dwelling video games towards Previous Dominion and Wofford, however ODU has been awfully fascinating to begin the season.
First issues first: If LSU had performed USF as an alternative of Louisiana Tech final week, the Tigers might have been in bother too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging simply 4.9 yards per play, and with the run sport struggling (because it did for a lot of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky choices, taking three sacks with a decide and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds effectively to an indignant week in Gainesville, do not be stunned if we get an upset.
Till we see Florida’s response, nonetheless, nothing else issues. Quarterback DJ Lagway remains to be kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging simply 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run protection might very effectively dominate, but it surely’s the cross protection that issues towards LSU, and the Gators rank simply 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After video games towards Lengthy Island and USF, that is fairly foreboding, regardless of how iffy Nussmeier regarded final week.
Present line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I do not fake to be a physique language professional, however when Vanderbilt scored to begin the second half towards Virginia Tech final week, the Hokies’ offense had simply concerning the worst physique language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the sphere. It was unhealthy sufficient that I really observed it and made a psychological observe, and it occurred about proper right here on the sport’s win likelihood chart.
The Hokies offense did not rating one other level, and the Hokies protection did not make one other cease. Tech will in all probability get again on observe this week, however Previous Dominion landed some strong punches early towards Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved towards SP+ projections by a mixed 46.4 factors in its first two video games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making large performs together with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, issues might get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Present line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It is time to appear like you had been presupposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has solely misplaced to the No. 3 workforce within the nation. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State final week however might clearly nonetheless win the Large 12. All 4 of those groups had been within the preseason high 15, and three nonetheless are. If they begin trying just like the groups they had been presupposed to be, they’re going to all have good seasons with strong playoff possibilities.
If they do not flip it on this week, nonetheless, issues will get very difficult. They’ve mixed to underachieve towards SP+ projections by a mean of 10.4 factors per sport. Georgia has barely made any large performs, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in factors per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been capable of throw or defend the cross. On Saturday, all 4 groups play opponents that would completely beat them if they do not discover their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked by a 28-6 win over Austin Peay final week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had extra turnovers (two) than 20-yard positive factors (one), and whereas APSU appears to be like like an awfully sturdy FCS workforce, this was nonetheless certainly one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in fairly some time.
Does that matter? Georgia principally treats the season like an NFL common season, understanding it is proficient sufficient to keep away from any actual missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the change and roll over Tennessee, it will not shock a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve received eight straight within the collection, in spite of everything, and have received of their previous 4 journeys to Knoxville by a mean of 41-10. However it’s arduous to have a lot confidence in a Georgia offense that confirmed subsequent to no explosiveness towards Marshall and APSU.
And it isn’t as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes not less than 20 yards downfield, however he has accomplished only one. Granted, he has accomplished 76% of all his different passes, and Georgia has been fairly environment friendly. However the big-play spigot must open fairly rapidly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen loads of large performs so far, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, 5 TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a powerful run sport, nonetheless, and he won’t be capable of lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed simply 2.2 yards per carry (not together with sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee might discover itself delayed fairly incessantly, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his largest take a look at of the season by far.
Present line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, however the distinction between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback manufacturing has been dramatic: The highest 5 QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are presently thirty fifth (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Whole QBR.
For youthful gamers like Manning and Sellers, a sluggish begin would possibly make sense. However Klubnik was presupposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to learn from everybody else’s inexperience. With unproven working backs and an already banged up O-line, nonetheless, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After video games towards among the finest (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down throughout the board. He is getting blitzed continually, he is offering no menace together with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success price has plummeted from thirty seventh to a hundred and fifth. Both that adjustments now, or Clemson’s 2025 objectives begin to collapse. A loss Saturday would nearly clinch that the Tigers should win out to succeed in the School Soccer Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a protection that has overachieved twice towards SP+ projections and an offense that was almost excellent final week towards Gardner-Webb regardless of forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King needs to be good (sufficient) to go Saturday, and although the Clemson protection might disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets nonetheless would possibly rating sufficient to win if Clemson’s offense would not begin trying prefer it was presupposed to look.
Present line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First issues first: If Vicari Swain desires to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I am sport.
1:05
Home name! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Home name! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of 5 punt returns in 2025, and it has created an odd steadiness: Together with a fumble return rating, South Carolina’s protection and particular groups have scored as many touchdowns (4) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success price, and LaNorris Sellers is taking much more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with much less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, with out query, been the higher of those two groups to this point. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (in comparison with South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a impartial area), they usually rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored extra TDs within the second half towards Virginia Tech (5) than the Gamecock offense has managed in 4 halves.
We do not draw everlasting conclusions after two video games, however both South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks start a really humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in 4 of their subsequent six video games. Lose this one as a favourite, and you may in all probability kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Present line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Final 12 months, Arizona State survived quite a lot of early shut calls, then regarded spectacular late. However the god of shut video games is fickle, and the Solar Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville final week.
They might clearly nonetheless attain the CFP by successful the Large 12, however with video games towards Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they have to begin trying the half, and on Saturday night time, they face an explosive Texas State workforce that almost took them down final 12 months. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU ought to run the ball effectively towards a shaky Texas State defensive entrance, however Sam Leavitt — presently 92nd in Whole QBR with a 57% completion price, three INTs and 4 sacks — has someway turn out to be much more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks eighty fifth in yards allowed per dropback. ASU almost overcame a horrible begin in Starkville, but when TXST’s offense will get rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it’d by no means decelerate.
Present line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘In all probability do not wish to lose when you’ve got CFP hopes’ panic
We won’t name many Week 3 video games true must-wins within the CFP period, however Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Large 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three video games aren’t must-win, they’re manufactured from a fairly must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a fairly conflicting impression in Week 1’s slender loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was respectable however unspectacular in his debut begin, whereas the protection restricted Miami’s big-play potential however allowed a 49% success price, which implies it presently ranks 126th in that class. The offensive and defensive traces carried out worse than anticipated, and the run sport was first underwhelming after which forgotten.
The Irish had every week off to arrange for a powerful Texas A&M workforce that has underachieved a hair due to defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his model of almost mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and working backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The protection has knocked opponents off-schedule effectively, but it surely has certainly been hit by eight positive factors of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something towards each UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame is not a lot of a “observe meets” type of workforce, and Carr threw nearly all of his passes near the road of scrimmage towards Miami. However he related on each of his lengthy passes. May the Irish get aggressive and take a look at A&M’s glitchiness?
It is easy to see this sport turning into certainly one of trench warfare, although random chunk performs might inform the story. A technique or one other, the Irish actually do want a win right here. Even when they had been to lose after which win out to complete 10-2 — not a given contemplating how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have regarded to this point — their résumé would possibly function just one or two wins over ranked groups, they usually might discover themselves on the backside of a pile of 10-2 groups. That is actually not the place you wish to be.
Present line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game shedding streak, then received its first Large 12 title two months later. You possibly can overcome a sluggish begin, however Ok-State has already nearly run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Military (much less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run sport has been dreadful with out injured star Dylan Edwards — he’s cleared to play Friday — and whereas quarterback Avery Johnson has been respectable, solely opponents are making large performs: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, however, has been spectacular, overachieving towards SP+ projections by a mixed 34.0 factors and enjoying like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing marketing campaign by no means occurred. Noah Fifita is averaging almost 18 yards per completion, and the protection has picked off 5 passes whereas permitting simply two completions over 12 yards.
As soon as once more: We do not draw conclusions after two weeks, however Arizona has carried out infinitely higher than Ok-State to date. If that continues Friday night time, Ok-State shifts to only making an attempt to go 6-6 and Arizona publicizes itself as a Large 12 contender.
Present line: Ok-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to place Alabama on this part when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? In all probability. However I needed to spotlight that the Crimson Tide have been possibly the single-most risky workforce within the nation by two weeks, first underachieving towards SP+ projections by 28.3 factors in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then successful almost each play and overachieving by 41.4 factors in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin won’t be wonderful this 12 months, however the Badgers are nearer to FSU than ULM, not less than on protection. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two video games — sure, towards Miami (Ohio) and Center Tennessee, however nonetheless — they usually’ve created critical havoc, rating fourth in sack price and fifteenth in stuff price. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been environment friendly filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., however the Wisconsin offense in all probability will not threaten Bama a lot. The protection will drive the Tide to place in a shift, nonetheless, and show that final week’s efficiency was far nearer to what we must always count on from Bama transferring ahead.
Present line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is stuffed with devastating losses’ panic
The Yard Brawl is fairly in-your-face about how superior and wild it’s. I imply, “Brawl” is true there within the title. It is loud and brash sufficient that you’ve nearly no selection however to assume, “Inform me once more why we aren’t enjoying this sport yearly?” about as soon as per quarter. Wealthy Rodriguez’s return to WVU has introduced a wave of sentimentality … and reminiscences of 2007, when Pitt scored probably the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, however severely, inform me once more why we’re not enjoying this sport yearly?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, in the meantime, would not actually actually have a identify and wasn’t performed yearly till the Eighties. You possibly can in all probability discover loads of Razorbacks and Rebels followers who do not even contemplate this a real rivalry. Superb. However previously 14 years alone, this sport has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many video games I sit up for extra, and I can name it no matter I would like.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the next lack of working again Jahiem White to season-ending damage — may need lowered the stakes right here, however Milan Puskar Stadium will likely be buzzing all the identical. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a mixed 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run protection. The WVU protection has been higher than I anticipated, although, and it’ll take solely a few turnovers to flip this one within the dwelling workforce’s favor.
Present line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a little bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky final week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary appears to be like nice, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all however one remaining sport. We may very well be watching a playoff plan come collectively, however a trio of dwelling video games towards Arkansas, Tulane and LSU within the subsequent three weeks might present any variety of plot twists.
Arkansas is as much as twenty first in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging almost 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. However the Razorbacks had been within the high 30 final September, too, earlier than issues went off the rails. If they’ve endurance this time, they may ship us one other very foolish Rebs-Hogs sport.
Present line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t desire the in-state upstart to wreck our nice begin’ panic
Should you do not knock USF out early, you’ll pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on 4 of its first six possessions however turned the ball over twice, scored as soon as and ultimately bought accomplished in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break protection early however settled for 3 area objectives, then threw an interception in its subsequent journey throughout the 50. Given sufficient alternatives, USF hit on a few chunk performs and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is permitting opponents to win the effectivity battle this 12 months however is stopping large performs and ultimately making a lot of its personal. This formulation has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is splendidly environment friendly. By way of two video games, together with one towards Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are fifteenth in dashing success price and ninth in passing success price. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are protecting them on schedule superbly, they usually have a No. 5 rating to indicate for it. They have not made a ton of huge performs, although, and the protection has given up positive factors of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (seventieth nationally). Absolutely the USF formulation is not going to work once more, proper?
Present line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We’re unstoppable! We’re as soon as once more utilizing this area to aim to will chaos into existence, 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly large level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity, and due to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s higher than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down one other ranked workforce. SP+ says there’s solely a 48% likelihood that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Regulate your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Listed below are some extra, much less panicky video games it is best to take note of if you wish to get essentially the most out of the weekend, from each data and leisure views.
Friday night
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed 9 whole factors and three.0 yards per play in two video games, and Colorado is evidently making an attempt to determine which of three totally different quarterbacks is the way in which ahead. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in solely two extra video games this season, so now could be an excellent time to kick into gear.
Present line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (midday, Fox). Northwestern has defended the cross effectively this 12 months, however (A) Oregon’s passing sport is an improve over these of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t actually accomplished something else effectively. Oregon has accomplished every little thing effectively to this point. This one will want some critical upset magic to be fascinating within the second half. (However hey, not less than Northwestern’s wonderful and momentary Lake Michigan stadium will get loads of display screen time.)
Present line: Geese -28.5 | SP+ projection: Geese by 27.1 | FPI projection: Geese by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (midday, ESPN2). Solely Oregon, USF and (in a single sport) TCU have overachieved towards SP+ projections greater than Temple to this point; coach Ok.C. Keeler is making a right away affect in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is definitely second nationally in Whole QBR. It is in all probability a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, nonetheless.
Present line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (midday, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 workforce in SP+, but when Tae Meadows and the Troy run sport get rolling, the Trojans and what needs to be a fairly spicy dwelling crowd might make this one robust. (See: Tulane’s slender escape towards South Alabama final week.)
Present line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas final week, however seven of the Tigers’ final 10 video games are projected inside one rating. This is not certainly one of them, however Louisiana ought to be capable of take a look at Mizzou on the road of scrimmage, not less than, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week earlier than South Carolina involves city.
Present line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a pleasant offensive rhythm, albeit towards cakey competitors. However now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its remaining 10 video games are towards groups ranked thirty third or higher in SP+, together with 5 ranked 18th or higher (together with USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a shock?
Present line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in final week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech workforce that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We do not know what the Purple Raiders do unsuitable but as a result of they’ve accomplished nearly nothing unsuitable. What can OSU do to sluggish them down?
Present line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of high quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, however the Cyclones have not actually gotten their run sport going but. Now’s the prospect. ASU’s passing sport has some pop, however the protection … would not. Now’s an opportunity to ascertain a rhythm and take some stress off Rocco Becht.
Present line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU definitely manhandled Florida A&M final week and is working Zach Kittley’s offense on the nation’s quickest tempo, however Willie Simmons’ first FIU workforce has overachieved towards projections in every of its first two video games. Can the Golden Panthers finish a seven-game rivalry shedding streak?
Present line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday night
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is one other large early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and bodily. The blitz-happy Bobcats protection will attempt to throw some haymakers too. They in all probability will not land many, however they may take a look at Julian Sayin and a few of Ohio State’s much less skilled gamers.
Present line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve mentioned it earlier than, and I am going to say it once more: Once I’m in control of all faculty soccer scheduling, I am sending a ranked energy convention workforce to Laramie’s Conflict Memorial Stadium yearly. It may be a cauldron. Utah ought to prevail in its first journey up there in 15 years, however the Cowboys will hit arduous and make their transformed offense work more durable than they’ve needed to to date.
Present line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new workforce hits the highway to face his previous workforce, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away a chance to beat Illinois final week, they’re going to should rebound rapidly to keep away from falling to 1-2. Tulane has already crushed one energy convention workforce (OK, it was Northwestern, however nonetheless). It appears to be like the a part of a big-time squad.
Present line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early assessments as Cal’s true freshman QB, finishing 69% of his passes and taking nearly no sacks. However Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after video games towards Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates strong stress with out having to blitz a lot. The diploma of problem ramps up significantly now.
Present line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s as soon as once more save a shoutout for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. Listed below are three video games it is best to observe.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove Metropolis (1 p.m., YouTube). After beginning the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton workforce, Mount Union heads to Grove Metropolis, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders rating sufficient towards a Grove Metropolis protection that pressured seven turnovers towards 2023 nationwide champ Cortland final week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Effectively, you possibly can’t query UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. Every week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield workforce, the Titans return to the Midwest to tackle Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would instantly be a aggressive FCS program, however it is a tough season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is among the FCS’ most dependable applications and needs to be sturdy once more this fall, however North Dakota has begun 2025 by almost beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies higher be prepared for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
