Judging 5 early-season men’s college basketball overreactions

The 2024-25 season is not even two weeks previous. However in males’s school basketball, we’re usually fast to research groups, gamers and coaches primarily based on restricted outcomes. It is already taking place.

North Florida seems to be like a scary Cinderella candidate after wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech final week. Get your brackets prepared. Cooper Flagg? He is unimaginable. However a bunch of detractors have already used one rocky stretch towards him. In a loss to Baylor, John Calipari’s Arkansas squad, taking pictures 25% from past the arc, regarded just like the Kentucky groups that grappled with late-game executions in Calipari’s last seasons there.

And No. 1 Kansas won’t be No. 1? Why could not Alabama rating for nine-plus minutes towards McNeese? Does Houston have Closing 4 expertise after dropping All-American Jamal Shead?

We’re simply right here so as to add gasoline to these flames. We’re going that can assist you determine if a number of the early declarations concerning the high groups, coaches and gamers of this season are honest or overblown. We’re prepared to affix you in a season filled with overreactions.

Kentucky is a nationwide championship contender once more

With new head coach Mark Pope, the No. 19 Wildcats averaged 101.5 factors of their first two video games — wins over Wright State and Bucknell. However victories over a pair of sub-150 groups on KenPom supplied a restricted alternative to judge this workforce’s ceiling. After which, the Wildcats met No. 6 Duke on the Champions Basic in Atlanta on Tuesday. They left State Farm Area with an exhilarating 77-72 victory after they corralled Cooper Flagg within the last possessions of the sport.

Kentucky needed to get well from a double-digit deficit however Pope’s group by no means wilted underneath the strain towards a top-10 opponent. A 40% clip from past the arc — Kentucky began 9-for-20 from the 3-point line — and the collective effort from Otega Oweh (15 factors) and Andrew Carr (17 factors) helped safe among the best wins of the season to date.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It is early. Very early. Let’s begin there. However, at this level, the pool of potential title contenders — in a males’s school basketball local weather that may not characteristic the identical dominant UConn workforce we have seen over the previous two seasons — is huge. On Tuesday night time, Kentucky proved it belongs in that blend. That grind-it-out effort over a Duke workforce with three projected NBA draft lottery picks was spectacular due to the best way the Wildcats received. It was a battle down the stretch, they usually made late performs to get the victory.

However there are considerations. Kentucky doesn’t but have a participant who can constantly get his personal shot in clutch conditions. The Wildcats will want that to make a Closing 4 run, it appears. Till then, they’re taking pictures at a wonderful clip from the 3-point line, they usually’re exhibiting sturdy defensive capabilities. It seems Pope has the items to deal with the Wildcats, who would possibly put the lukewarm ending of Calipari’s reign behind them.

Flagg, younger stars will doom Duke‘s nationwide title aspirations

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Cooper Flagg’s expensive turnovers doom Duke in loss to Kentucky

Cooper Flagg commits a pair of expensive turnovers late within the second half to seal a Kentucky win over Duke.

The one-and-done period has not produced many one-and-done nationwide championship stars. And but three potential top-10 NBA draft picks — Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach — anchor what could possibly be Jon Scheyer’s most profitable season as Duke’s head coach.

Towards Kentucky on Tuesday, the freshman trio mixed to attain 50 factors. And the Blue Devils had a wholesome lead — till cramping points started to have an effect on Maluach’s efficiency. General, the younger gamers have been fabulous, as they’ve been to start out this season. However Flagg’s late turnovers and tunnel imaginative and prescient within the last seconds supplied a reminder that it is by no means simple to make a Closing 4 run — or win a giant recreation — with a roster led by youngsters.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

First, every little thing that Flagg did Tuesday — earlier than these late missteps — justified the entire preseason buzz. He was a terrific defender. He performed level guard on a number of possessions. He was a drive within the paint and he was essentially the most impactful participant on the courtroom. It is unfair to take a look at his last possessions and query something about his recreation, when the rationale Duke even had an opportunity to seal a win late was due to that effort. Knueppel and Maluach had elite contributions on the massive stage, too.

Not all one-and-done prospects are created equal. However Duke’s group could possibly be particular, and this trio proved as a lot all through most of Tuesday night time. The three will proceed to develop. Although solely Kentucky (2012) and Duke (2015) have received nationwide titles with freshman leaders within the post-2006 NBA draft years (the one-and-done period), Duke definitely appears to have younger management that would assist this system be a part of that quick checklist.

Kyle Neptune’s tenure is in severe jeopardy at Villanova

In 2022, Jay Wright abruptly retired after successful nationwide titles in 2016 and 2018. Wright left simply as NIL guidelines and the expansive influence of the switch portal had begun to alter the panorama of the game. Neptune, who’d been a Villanova assistant underneath Wright and the top coach for a yr at Fordham, was employed as his successor.

For essentially the most half, each legendary coach’s successor has struggled. UCLA had 4 coaches in 10 years after John Picket retired. Matt Doherty understood the North Carolina tradition as a former participant, however he could not maintain the observe report established by Dean Smith. And Kevin Ollie received a nationwide title at UConn after Jim Calhoun retired, however his tenure ended after back-to-back sub-.500 seasons. Neptune is 2-2 in his third season, after losses to Columbia and Saint Joseph’s, a pair of sub-100 groups on KenPom. It feels as if he wants his first NCAA event look to avoid wasting his job.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Wright, who received 520 video games with the Wildcats, established a robust commonplace any successor would have struggled to increase. It is why so many teaching candidates select towards following a legend. Neptune accepted the job as school basketball was being reshaped in actual time. That has been an impediment for many coaches, together with the veterans. However Neptune didn’t have loads of expertise as a head coach — which didn’t assist his trigger.

After the Wildcats’ loss to Columbia — their second consecutive loss to an Ivy League opponent — Neptune mentioned, “It’s what it’s.” A remark that didn’t sit nicely with some supporters, who’re looking for an indication of hope for his or her workforce’s season.

The 39-year-old head coach is now 37-34 in his tenure, with out a postseason look. And the report is just not the one concern. Legacies do not matter as a lot on this NIL and portal period; a heralded program can lose each key participant from one season to the subsequent and turn out to be an afterthought. The truth of the game will solely improve the pressures on Neptune, who clearly wants a turnaround to be ok with his job safety.

Kansas‘ rotation is overcrowded

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Hunter Dickinson drops 28 as Kansas tops Michigan State

Hunter Dickinson does all of it for the Jayhawks with 28 factors and 12 boards in a win over the Spartans.

After Kevin McCullar Jr. sustained a foot harm within the second half of final season, he barely may follow with the workforce. A pissed off coach Invoice Self acknowledged that 2023-24 workforce simply lacked the depth to compete with out the all-Huge 12 choice. He vowed to keep away from the identical state of affairs sooner or later.

So he introduced in Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State), AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Rylan Griffen (Alabama) and David Coit (Northern Illinois) to reinforce a Kansas rotation that helped safe a top-10 win over North Carolina in Lawrence final week and defeat Michigan State within the Champions Basic.

The latter recreation additionally featured some sloppy moments, although, as gamers proceed to be taught their roles for the No. 1-ranked Jayhawks. Self lastly has the depth he has craved however does he have room for the entire new expertise?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This workforce already has an All-American heart in Hunter Dickinson and a pair of veterans (Dajuan Harris Jr., KJ Adams Jr.). On Tuesday, Self admitted his workforce would wish extra time to construct chemistry to reply in key moments.

However there’s room for each participant, too, even when that does not imply at all times taking part in a major position because the season progresses. Storr, Coit and five-star prospect Flory Bidunga give Kansas a rotation that will not expertise a significant drop-off when Self turns to his bench, and there are a number of scorers who may help the Jayhawks climate the storm in robust occasions.

Mayo did every little thing for South Dakota State final season. Issues are completely different for him in Lawrence. Griffen, Self mentioned, has to get extra comfy within the offense, and Storr should additionally adapt by taking part in an environment friendly recreation as a substitute of speeding some pictures the best way he has by way of three video games. This isn’t a rotation subject, although. The Jayhawks simply want extra time collectively to solidify a lineup that could possibly be nation’s finest.

It is too early to evaluate John Calipari’s begin at Arkansas

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Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: Sport Highlights

Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: Sport Highlights

Throughout his introductory information convention within the spring, Calipari mentioned he had no workforce, as each participant on the roster had entered the switch portal. He constructed a workforce from scratch with five-star prospects and key transfers, equivalent to former high prospect D.J. Wagner and former Florida Atlantic star Johnell Davis.

What was purported to be a strong roster has additionally handled a large number of accidents, although. Tennessee switch Jonas Aidoo has performed restricted minutes whereas recovering from an offseason harm whereas ahead Trevon Brazile performed solely 9 minutes within the workforce’s win over Troy earlier this week. Calipari has mentioned they’ve needed to follow with solely 5 gamers at occasions. The harm bug has already been a major storyline for the Razorbacks in Calipari’s first season. Ought to we be frightened?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Arkansas has linked on solely 30.8% of its 3-point makes an attempt, and ended the week ranked within the 60s on KenPom in adjusted offensive effectivity. Final season, Calipari had the highest 3-point taking pictures workforce within the nation — and nonetheless misplaced within the first spherical of the NCAA event. The Razorbacks, who’re a top-10 defensive workforce, haven’t been in sync to date. That is OK. They will enhance, particularly as soon as they’re wholesome.

However school basketball can be an extended, five-month affair, and Arkansas has solely 9 standout gamers when absolutely wholesome. These accidents are an ominous signal for an already shorthanded crew. Calipari has expertise in Fayetteville — he simply won’t have sufficient to get this group to the end line. Which is why the early critiques of this workforce appear affordable. Arkansas won’t have the depth to achieve its ceiling over the subsequent 30-plus video games.