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Neil Paine
A number of Authors
The 2026 males’s NCAA match is quickly approaching, which implies the query prime of thoughts for a lot of followers is: Will your group be in or out? Groups have roughly 4 weeks till Choice Sunday to strengthen their instances. Till then, we’re right here to trace how every group on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a wide range of metrics as guides, classifying groups primarily based on how seemingly they’re to make the sphere of 68 as one of many 37 at-large choices — conditional on not profitable their respective convention tournaments for one of many 31 computerized qualifying bids (AQs). To that finish, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a mixture of knowledge sources — together with my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics similar to NET rankings that the choice committee will consider — to guage a group’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of phrases and sources, click here or scroll to the underside of this story.)
We’ll kind groups in at-large rivalry into the next classes:
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Locks: Groups that would want a big change in momentum to overlook the lower. 28 present groups
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Needs to be in: Groups monitoring above the cutline, although their fates usually are not but clear. 11 present groups
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Work to do: The truest “on the bubble” groups, as a result of their chances are high closest to a coin flip. 15 present groups
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Lengthy photographs: There’s little — although not zero — probability they make the Large Dance as an at-large.
Let’s go convention by convention — so as of which venture to have probably the most NCAA match bids — to rank the groups in every class primarily based on their probabilities to safe an at-large bid.
Notice: All occasions Japanese.
Bounce to a convention:
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
BIG TEN
9.8 anticipated bids; 8.8 at-large
Locks (5)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Needs to be in (3)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 7:17 a.m.
Recent off of an additional time win at Illinois on Tuesday, the Badgers grabbed one other Quadrant 1A win on Friday night time, flat out dominating Michigan State at dwelling. That newest victory was the Badgers’ third Quadrant 1A win of the season, which improves a résumé that now sits round thirtieth within the nationwide consensus rating (sixth in a Large Ten presently monitoring for 10 bids). Their remaining schedule will get a bit bit higher after another Quadrant 1A opponent (Ohio State in Columbus) subsequent week, and that — plus their current résumé-boosting W’s — has boosted Wisconsin within the consensus at-large forecast from 79% to 96% previously two weeks.
Subsequent sport: at Ohio State (Tuesday)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 7:11 p.m.
Iowa was trying like a possible “lock” candidate after profitable six in a row, however the Hawkeyes’ at-large probabilities have fallen after back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue. The Hawkeyes nonetheless personal a résumé within the mid-30s nationally, and they’re borderline prime 25 in our common of predictive scores, each of which bode effectively for his or her match hopes. However their schedule will get harder, leaping from 63rd thus far to ninth from right here on nationally (third hardest within the Large Ten), in keeping with the BPI.
Subsequent sport: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 8:17 p.m.
Coming off a run of 5 wins in six video games — together with three over Quadrant 1 and a couple of opponents — Indiana’s sizzling streak cooled with a 20-point loss at Illinois on Sunday. The Hoosiers stay the darlings of the forecast fashions, which common out to provide them a conditional at-large likelihood north of 80%, and their portfolio holds up subsequent to different bubble groups in what’s trying like a 10-bid Large Ten. With a borderline top-30 rating within the predictive metrics and the seventh-hardest remaining schedule within the convention, they’ve an opportunity to maintain constructing their case.
Subsequent sport: at Purdue (Friday)
Work to do (3)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 10:29 p.m.
A stretch of 5 wins in six video games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large probabilities close to 80% — however that sizzling streak cooled off in a current tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive video games. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé nonetheless ranks within the 40s nationally, and their predictive score is best than their résumé provides them credit score for. However even when the convention will get 10 bids, it is now not as clear that the Bruins can be in line for one of many final of these, particularly since troublesome matchups towards Illinois and Nebraska stay.
Subsequent sport: vs. Illinois (Saturday)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 10:55 p.m.
After lacking on a major alternative to lift their at-large probabilities towards Virginia on Saturday in Nashville, Ohio State didn’t let issues slip away on Tuesday with a giant résumé-boosting dwelling win over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes nonetheless sit proper on the bubble, rating mid-40s within the nationwide résumé rankings and proper on the cutline of what’s trying like a 10-bid Large Ten. They’re additionally 0-8 towards Quadrant 1 opponents, making them much less of a tournament-bound group as they appeared earlier within the season. However they’re higher than their present résumé signifies, rating inside the highest 40 of the predictive scores. The primary difficulty is that they’ve had no constant momentum this season, a development that even continued Tuesday. After beating the Badgers, the Buckeyes have alternated wins and losses in 19 of their previous 21 video games.
Subsequent sport: at Michigan St. (Sunday)
Up to date: Feb. 12, 7:14 a.m.
Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s current win streak helped pad its bubble case. However in a vital go to to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans had been unable to hold on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large probabilities beneath 60%. If the season ended immediately, they’d nonetheless seemingly safe one of many Large Ten’s final entries with the eighth-best résumé rating in what’s monitoring to be a 10-bid convention. In fact, their important drawback stays future outcomes. which is why the fashions are much less bullish. USC is a high-40s group within the predictive scores, with the nation’s twenty third most troublesome remaining schedule. The subsequent three weeks will likely be a wild journey for Eric Musselman’s group.
Subsequent sport: vs. Illinois (Wednesday)
Lengthy photographs
SEC
9.6 anticipated bids (8.6 at-large)
Locks (6)
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
Needs to be in (2)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 10:47 p.m.
Auburn’s fortunes continued to slip with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. Whereas the Tigers’ 4 straight defeats have come towards Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they’ve dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and sophisticated what as soon as appeared like a robust match case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have 4 Quadrant 1 wins (together with two Quadrant 1A) towards the nation’s fourth-most troublesome schedule per the BPI, and so they stay mid-30s within the nationwide résumé rating common. On paper, these varieties of groups are inclined to obtain an at-large name, although the BPI is projecting them to probably not even attain 18 wins. They are going to be an interesting litmus take a look at for a way a lot the committee values document versus schedule energy.
Subsequent sport: at Mississippi State (Wednesday)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 7:29 a.m.
Within the highest-leverage bubble showdown on Saturday’s slate, the Longhorns beat Missouri convincingly on the highway to proceed a pointy upward trajectory in current match projections. They graduate from “work to do” to “must be in” because of this, with the consensus forecast giving them a 77% at-large probability after the victory. The Longhorns are nonetheless tenth within the convention within the résumé rankings (borderline prime 50 nationally), however their outcomes are catching up with their predictive score, which constantly has been within the prime 40. They nonetheless face a tricky slate with 4 of their remaining six regular-season contests towards Quadrant 1 opponents. Their match hopes would possibly nonetheless relaxation on the SEC getting 10 bids, however the Longhorns are in vastly higher form now than at any level previously six weeks.
Subsequent sport: vs. LSU (Tuesday)
Work to do (3)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 3:15 p.m.
Texas A&M’s consensus at-large probabilities reached effectively into the 80% vary after opening SEC play on a 7-1 run, however the Aggies have dropped 4 straight — together with Saturday’s loss at Vanderbilt — and their odds have gone tumbling. They now examine in beneath 70%, downgrading them from “must be in” to “work to do.” They’re nonetheless projected by the BPI to clear 20 wins by common season’s finish, however additionally they rank ninth within the résumé rating common out of what may very well be solely a nine-bid convention — even when it is extra seemingly 10 — and the hole between them and the remainder of the SEC’s “work to do” tier has mainly vanished.
Subsequent sport: vs. Mississippi (Wednesday)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 7:29 a.m.
After profitable 16 of their first 19 video games, the Dawgs have been on the decline, notching their fifth loss in six video games after a second-half collapse at Oklahoma on Saturday. They’ve fallen from a 97% consensus at-large probability to 66% previously three weeks and now sit fortieth within the total résumé rankings — with a quartet of wins towards the BPI prime 50 — and eighth in résumé common amid what’s trying like a nine- or 10-bid SEC. The current bounce in schedule issue has taken its toll, with loads of robust matchups left.
Subsequent sport: at Kentucky (Tuesday)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 11:17 p.m.
On the heels of three straight wins (and 4 in 5 video games) to revive what had been a flagging at-large likelihood, Missouri had a golden alternative so as to add one other résumé win over bubble nemesis Texas at dwelling on Saturday. However the Tigers had been outscored 52-37 after halftime, dropping the vital matchup by 17 factors. They rank simply eleventh amongst SEC groups within the résumé common — a tricky spot to be in with the convention projected for 10 match entries by most accounts. They do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and 5 towards the BPI prime 50, however even when their résumé is on par with Texas and Texas A&M, the Tigers are a lot decrease within the predictive metrics — and play a good more durable remaining schedule per the BPI.
Subsequent sport: vs. Vanderbilt (Wednesday)
Lengthy photographs
ACC
8.1 anticipated bids; 7.1 at-large
Locks (5)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers
Needs to be in (3)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 9:09 p.m.
After satiating our standards for a “lock,” with a 98% consensus at-large probability after a run of eight wins in 9 video games (together with a pair of Quadrant 1A victories), back-to-back losses to Louisville and Miami pushed NC State again in “must be in” territory. However that change might not final lengthy: the Wolfpack struck again with a dominant 82-58 dwelling win over UNC on Tuesday, re-affirming why the metrics had been initially so excessive on them. They nonetheless rank borderline prime 30 nationally within the predictive and résumé scores, together with sixth on the résumé record in an ACC monitoring for eight bids. However additionally they nonetheless face a considerably more durable remaining schedule (third hardest within the convention) than the ACC’s different bubble hopefuls. After video games like Tuesday, it might not matter.
Subsequent sport: at Virginia (Tuesday)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 10:11 p.m.
The Hurricanes are formally on a roll in ACC play after three straight résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and, on Tuesday night time, fellow Bubble Watch entry Virginia Tech. Their at-large odds had already pulled roughly even with SMU’s going into the day, with Miami boasting the superior résumé high quality (seventh within the ACC vs. eighth for the Mustangs), and the Hurricanes’ consensus mannequin at-large probabilities is up roughly 30% over the previous three weeks, a really constructive development at a vital level within the season. The BPI has them going through the 68th-hardest remaining schedule, with three extra probabilities to attain Quadrant 1 wins (of which they have already got 4). With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight NCAA bids, the Canes at the moment are in good condition to seize a kind of.
Subsequent sport: at Virginia (Saturday)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 9:09 p.m.
Simply when the Mustangs took a success in our projections by faltering late as highway favorites at Syracuse on Saturday, blowing a double-digit second-half result in lose for the third time in 5 video games, they rebounded with a double-digit dwelling win over Louisville on Tuesday. After just lately falling behind Miami, they rank eighth in what could also be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And whereas they’re seventh within the convention (thirty seventh nationally) within the predictive rating, they’ve the nation’s 73rd-hardest remaining schedule, which is nice for managing a established order that seemingly resides above the bubble if the bracket had been set immediately with a consensus at-large probability within the mid-80% vary.
Subsequent sport: vs. Boston School (Saturday)
Work to do (2)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 10:11 p.m.
It is all the time high-stakes when two Bubble Watch groups face off at this stage of the season — as was the case when the Hokies visited Miami on Tuesday — and it is laborious to stroll away the loser, which Virginia Tech was when it got here up quick towards Tre Donaldson’s heroics. Coming off an enormous highway win over a Quadrant 1A foe in Clemson final Wednesday, Virginia Tech is trending again within the improper course with losses towards Florida State and now Miami. The Hokies nonetheless have ammunition of their battle to be presumably the final ACC group referred to as to the brackets, together with three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé score that’s borderline prime 50. However their conditional at-large probabilities have been sliced roughly in half over the previous three weeks, suggesting they’re in critical limbo proper now.
Subsequent sport: vs. Wake Forest (Saturday)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 1:53 p.m.
Again-to-back losses to Clemson then in double additional time to Syracuse splashed chilly water on Cal’s hopes, however a convincing victory at Boston School acquired the Golden Bears shifting again in the proper course. They nonetheless sit outdoors the highest 50 on the résumé rating, however additionally they have 4 Quadrant 1 wins (together with one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s best remaining schedule. Both approach, with a consensus at-large likelihood within the teenagers, the Bears definitely have “work to do.”
Subsequent sport: vs. Stanford (Saturday)
Lengthy photographs
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Syracuse Orange
BIG 12
7.4 anticipated bids (6.4 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
Needs to be in (1)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 9:15 p.m.
With so lots of the Large 12’s anticipated bids being efficient locks — the six groups listed above every have not less than 99% conditional at-large probabilities within the mannequin consensus — the convention’s bubble image actually begins with who may very well be the seventh bid. The Knights had been dropping their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, however they regained a few of it with Tuesday’s essential win over bubble rival TCU. The victory pushed their full-season projection again over 20 wins, and helped them shut again in on the highest 30 within the résumé common. ( place to be, since no different non-“lock” from the Large 12 is even inside the highest 50). With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule within the convention, the Knights are again within the driver’s seat even when the Large 12 solely receives 7 bids, not less than for now.
Subsequent sport: at Utah (Saturday)
Work to do (2)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 9:16 p.m.
The Horned Frogs had performed themselves right into a critical battle for one of many Large 12’s remaining at-large nods with a trio of massive wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the highway in additional time. However that progress hit a snag with Tuesday’s loss at UCF, a consequence that put a critical dent of their match odds. Not that TCU’s case is not fascinating: Though it sits with a consensus at-large probability within the 35-40% vary, the Horned Frogs have 5 Quadrant 1 wins (together with a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State) and one final probability so as to add one other arising towards Texas Tech on March 3. They’ve a case to be the Large 12’s eighth match group, but when seven is the convention’s magic quantity, TCU is in bother.
Subsequent sport: vs. West Virginia (Saturday)
Up to date: Feb. 14, 8:31 p.m.
West Virginia nonetheless faces an uphill battle to return to the match for the primary time since 2023, however its win at UCF on Saturday definitely helps. The mannequin consensus nonetheless units the Mountaineers’ probabilities at an at-large bid round 25%, and they’re barely flirting with the highest 60 in résumé rankings whereas solely a bit higher within the predictive rating. However they do have 4 wins towards Quadrant 1 foes — together with one towards Quadrant 1A Kansas final month — and could have an opportunity to manage their future by including extra within the coming weeks.
Subsequent sport: vs. Utah (Wednesday)
Lengthy photographs
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Baylor Bears
Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
BIG EAST
3.2 anticipated bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Needs to be in (0)
None
Work to do (1)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 8:17 p.m.
Simply when the season appeared to be slipping away from Shaheen Holloway and his group with six losses in eight video games, Seton Corridor outlasted Windfall on Wednesday then scored a résumé-boosting comeback win on Sunday at Butler in a sport that will have plunged the Pirates into “lengthy shot” territory had they misplaced. They nonetheless have a steep hill to climb, with at-large probabilities sitting beneath 30% within the forecast composite whereas rating outdoors the highest 50 nationally in résumé common with solely two Quadrant 1 wins. A case will likely be laborious to make if the Large East receives solely three bids, which is the present Bracketology expectation, although the Pirates could have a few alternatives to pad their résumé if they’ll upset UConn (Feb. 28) or St. John’s (March 6).
Subsequent sport: vs. DePaul (Wednesday)
Lengthy photographs
OTHERS
Locks (3)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Convention)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Needs to be in (1)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA match since 2022, so it is robust to think about that streak coming to an finish, with the Gaels sitting thirty second within the résumé rankings. But they’re right here as a result of they carry a consensus 84% at-large likelihood — not fairly a “lock” — seemingly pushed by the perennial query of what number of WCC groups the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One potential bother spot: Whereas their résumé is best than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels misplaced the primary of the groups’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels additionally have no Quadrant 1 wins — and sure will not, except they get revenge for his or her loss at Gonzaga when the 2 meet once more on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.
Subsequent sport: at Seattle (Wednesday)
Work to do (5)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 9:12 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t obtained a number of bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the identical yr Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Candy 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah within the first two rounds. Might historical past repeat? After Arizona misplaced earlier this month, Miami is the only real remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the highest 40 on résumé because of this. The forecast fashions do not fairly know methods to deal with the RedHawks, although the committee has by no means excluded an eligible group with fewer than 4 losses in a non-pandemic season. It’s true that Miami is a mid-80s group within the predictive scores (Akron truly nonetheless ranks larger within the MAC) that has run up an undefeated document towards the 331st-hardest schedule within the nation. However wins are wins, and Miami acquired even nearer to working the desk on Tuesday, surviving a little bit of a second-half scare to beat UMass in what may need been its hardest remaining take a look at.
Subsequent sport: vs. Bowling Inexperienced (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will likely be fixed down the stretch, as we debate whether or not the WCC might get three bids, which has occurred solely as soon as previously 13 seasons. The Broncos’ probabilities had been on the rise after a current stretch of 9 consecutive wins (and 13 in 14 video games), however a tricky back-and-forth loss to Gonzaga on Saturday dropped their consensus at-large probabilities to 66%. They personal the Forty first-best résumé rating and a head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s however are projected to complete with two fewer wins than the Gaels. Santa Clara’s destiny might relaxation on the Feb. 25 rematch at Saint Mary’s, and the way a lot the choice committee values head-to-head wins.
Subsequent sport: at San Francisco (Saturday)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 8:10 a.m.
The Aztecs beat Nevada on Saturday to seize their third straight win sport however are nonetheless one of many bubbliest of bubble groups. They sit forty fifth nationally within the résumé rankings and their consensus at-large chances are high 65%. The convention might feasibly ship three groups to the match — it hasn’t fallen beneath that threshold in 5 seasons — and with a reasonably sizable hole in at-large probabilities over the next-best Mountain West group (New Mexico at 43%), San Diego State would determine to be in respectable sufficient form if it retains profitable.
Subsequent sport: vs. Grand Canyon (Tuesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Up to date: Feb. 15, 8:10 a.m.
Searching for a 3rd straight NCAA match journey for the primary time in additional than a decade, the Lobos now not have the within observe to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant with their consensus at-large odds sitting beneath 50%. The first blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they will not have an opportunity to avenge till they play host on Feb. 28.
Subsequent sport: vs. Air Drive (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Up to date: Feb. 17, 10:25 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments for the reason that Will Wade period practically a decade in the past, and the forecast fashions (which sit within the borderline 30% consensus at-large vary) stay lower than bullish on that streak ending this season, partly as a result of the Rams are 0-4 towards Quadrant 1 opponents with just one remaining shot at altering that (at Saint Louis on Friday). Nevertheless, they’re proper in the course of bubble territory in total résumé (mid-40s nationally), and their remaining schedule is delicate sufficient for extra wins, to allow them to definitely strengthen their case. After pulling away from George Washington on Tuesday night time, the Rams have now received a powerful 10 in a row and 15 of 17. Their subsequent sport towards the Billikens — who simply suffered a uncommon loss to a different set of Rams (Rhode Island) — will likely be large for his or her at-large resume.
Subsequent sport: at Saint Louis (Friday)
Lengthy photographs
Boise State Broncos (MW)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Liberty Flames (C-USA)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
Glossary of phrases
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Mannequin consensus: A mix of the conditional at-large bid odds discovered through BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
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Résumé rating: A median of rankings in energy of document (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
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Predictive rating: A median of rankings within the Basketball Energy Index (BPI), KenPom scores (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” scores, TeamRankings’ energy scores and Sports activities-Reference’s SRS scores.
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Energy of schedule and projected information are in keeping with the BPI.
