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David Schoenfield
We have began to see some high free brokers come off the board because the MLB offseason has gotten rolling: Kyle Schwarber again to the Philadelphia Phillies, Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles and Dylan Stop to the Toronto Blue Jays. The nearer market additionally moved rapidly: Devin Williams to the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz then ditching the Mets for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Robert Suarez to the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Helsley to Baltimore.
That also leaves seven of the highest 10 free brokers from Kiley McDaniel’s top-50 ranking unsigned. Let us take a look at that group and see the place issues stand. The staff on the heart of every part proper now’s the Mets: They have needs to fill and cash to spend and will likely be a key participant in how the remainder of this offseason performs out.
We’ll listing Kiley’s contract projections for every participant — together with up to date projections for the 4 remaining large free agent hitters, based mostly on how the deals for Schwarber and Alonso have reset that market. Then, in fact, we’ll make some predictions that can actually be appropriate.
2025 free agent rating: 1
Preliminary projection: 11 years, $418 million
New projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)
Crew that is perhaps out: Phillies. The Phillies crossed off their high agenda merchandise, re-signing Schwarber, after which crammed a gap within the outfield with a one-year deal for Adolis Garcia. On the Garcia press convention, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski mentioned the Phillies’ outfield is “fairly effectively set,” with Brandon Marsh in left area (at the very least towards right-handed pitching) and rookie Justin Crawford getting the possibility to win the job in heart area.
What in regards to the Mets? The Mets rapidly changed Alonso with Jorge Polanco, however they’ve holes within the outfield, the place Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor and prospect Carson Benge are the present candidates to swimsuit up alongside Juan Soto. The payroll is a few $42 million beneath the place it was in 2025, by way of Roster Useful resource at FanGraphs, however the Mets nonetheless want a front-line beginning pitcher and bullpen depth.
Does the reluctance to give Diaz and Alonso long-term contracts preclude signing the youthful Tucker? Not essentially, however it’s clear president of baseball operations David Stearns is working with a disciplined mission this offseason, specializing in upgrading the staff’s protection and never getting trapped into longer offers that may rapidly go awry. Plus, with Soto getting into the second 12 months of a 15-year contract, does it make sense to provide one other long-term deal to an outfielder? Most likely not.
What in regards to the Dodgers? The Dodgers might shift Teoscar Hernandez to left area and signal Tucker to play proper area, particularly with the payroll about $43 million beneath the place it was in 2025. However do the Dodgers consider that a lot in Tucker to provide him a megadeal? Sooner or later, they do must weave some youthful place gamers into the lineup — and their high prospects are all outfielders: Josue De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope. Tucker on a shorter cope with a better AAV may work if an extended one is not on the market for him.
Prediction: Blue Jays. The Jays are doubling down on their World Sequence look thus far, signing starters Stop and Cody Ponce, who’s coming off Korean League MVP honors, in addition to reliever Tyler Rogers. With George Springer within the last 12 months of his deal, Tucker may be considered as Springer’s alternative within the outfield (with Anthony Santander because the DH). The Jays even have a number of different cash coming off the books after 2026 (Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Myles Straw and Yimi Garcia). Together with Springer, that is $78 million, to allow them to take up the long-term implications of a Tucker deal.
2025 free agent rating: 2
Preliminary projection: 6 years, $168 million
Crew that is perhaps out: Blue Jays. With Bieber exercising his participant choice after which the Jays signing Stop and Ponce, the rotation appears settled for 2026.
What in regards to the Mets? Final offseason, Stearns tried the second-tier route to repair the rotation, signing Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, Clay Holmes for 3 years and $38 million, and Frankie Montas for 2 years and $34 million. It did not precisely work. Holmes was fantastic, however Manaea had a 5.64 ERA in 12 begins whereas Montas made simply seven begins and the Mets launched him after the season. Provided that Mets starters ranked twenty seventh within the majors, let’s have a look at if Stearns swims in deeper waters this time and indicators the highest starter on the market, one who has averaged 192 innings the previous 4 seasons. However does Stearns have the urge for food to signal a pitcher for longer than three years? Stories appear to counsel the reply to that query is not any — and {that a} commerce is extra seemingly.
What in regards to the Orioles? Signing Alonso should not forestall the Orioles from going after one of many high remaining beginning pitchers. Certainly, after signing Alonso and buying and selling for Taylor Ward (a free agent after 2026) the urgency to win now has solely elevated. The payroll is $22 million beneath 2025’s $160 million. Is that sufficient room to signal Valdez? A extra seemingly choice is perhaps a starter simply exterior the highest 10 free brokers, comparable to Ranger Suarez or Michael King.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs. The Cubs want a top-of-the-rotation starter, a man they really feel extra assured handing the ball to in a playoff recreation than they did with Matthew Boyd or Shota Imanaga. In addition they have the payroll flexibility to do it, sitting about $22 million beneath final season’s whole.
2025 free agent rating: 3
Preliminary projection: 6 years, $165 million
New projection: 6 years, $180 million
Crew that is perhaps out: Cincinnati Reds. Not that the Reds have been ever in on Bellinger, however they have been in on Schwarber. Though Bellinger suits a necessity within the outfield, the Reds’ curiosity in Schwarber was apparently solely as a result of possession’s perception the Ohio native would assist promote tickets.
What in regards to the New York Yankees? It has been a quiet offseason thus far for the Yankees, however basic supervisor Brian Cashman reiterated on the winter conferences that the Yankees nonetheless need Bellinger again after a stellar 5.1-WAR season within the Bronx. Whereas they do not essentially need to quit on Jasson Dominguez, there’s nonetheless loads of room for Bellinger, particularly since he can play heart — which permits New York to hedge towards Trent Grisham regressing from his stunning 2025 numbers. Bellinger might additionally fill in at first base or play proper area when Aaron Judge wants a DH day.
Prediction: Mets. Stearns is clearly emphasizing protection — bringing in Marcus Semien to play second base and ditching Alonso. Bellinger suits in that regard, particularly in left area, the place he could be a plus defender, and he can deal with heart as effectively. The Dodgers may very well be within the combine right here as effectively, however that outfield gap for the Mets is obtrusive. If they don’t seem to be going to signal Tucker and if they are not keen to provide a long-term deal to a pitcher, Bellinger is the most effective match for them on the high of the market.
Would the Mets give Bellinger an even bigger contract than the one Alonso acquired from the Orioles? Bellinger is barely a 12 months youthful, however over the previous three seasons he has averaged 4.0 WAR whereas Alonso averaged 3.1
2025 free agent rating: 4
Preliminary projection: 5 years, $160 million
New projection: 5 or 6 years, $170 million
Crew that is perhaps out: Detroit Tigers. Bregman and the Tigers felt like the right match final offseason when Bregman was a free agent, however Buster Olney lately reported on an episode of the Baseball Tonight podcast that negotiations turned a “little bit nasty” final 12 months, making it much less seemingly for a match this time round.
What in regards to the Mets? This was a well-liked prediction on the outset of free company, however the Mets now appear dedicated to Brett Baty at third base. Bregman’s age — he is getting into his age-32 season — additionally makes him a dangerous guess, and Stearns is clearly anti-risk.
What in regards to the Cubs? The Cubs went exhausting after Bregman final season and there have been experiences of curiosity as soon as once more, although Matt Shaw performed significantly better within the second half of his rookie season (.258/.317/.522).
Prediction: Boston Red Sox. In the long run, a return to Boston nonetheless makes essentially the most sense. The Purple Sox went after Schwarber and Alonso, they usually want Bregman’s right-handed bat to assist steadiness out the lefty-heavy lineup.
2025 free agent rating: 5
Preliminary projection: 6 years, $135 million
Crew that is perhaps out: Dodgers. After initially declaring he needs to take the Dodgers down, Imai has doubled down on his need to beat the Dodgers — not be part of them. “With the variety of pitchers they have already got, they do not want me,” he advised a Japanese information outlet. In the meantime, Tyler Glasnow advised MLB Community Radio on Sunday that he spoke with Andrew Friedman, and the Dodgers’ exec advised him, “You are not going anyplace.” Looks like the Dodgers will follow their rotation.
What in regards to the Mets? If the Dodgers are out, Imai touchdown with a big-market East Coast staff actually seems like a robust risk. However, there’s nonetheless the problem of whether or not Stearns will give a pitcher a long-term deal — and Imai is predicted to get 5 – 6 years.
What in regards to the Yankees? Imai has until Jan. 2 to sign, so this might occur any day. The rotation is not actually a necessity for the Yankees — they completed fourth in rotation ERA in 2025 with out Gerrit Cole, who needs to be again in some unspecified time in the future within the first half of the 2026 season after present process Tommy John surgical procedure in March of 2025. However they’re undoubtedly the entire Dodgers’ Japanese starters with envy, plus there are rumors of the Yankees going after a beginning pitcher (comparable to a return engagement with King).
Prediction: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are going to be within the combine for a number of of those high guys — Tucker, Bellinger and the pitchers. Heck, if Imai needs to beat the Dodgers, how about becoming a member of a staff the place he can face them 4 or 5 instances a season? The Giants’ payroll is barely $8 million below 2025’s whole, however that 2025 determine was about $30 million beneath 2024. They’ve room to pay, they want a beginning pitcher and Robbie Ray is a free agent after 2026.
2025 free agent rating: 7
Preliminary projection: 5 years, $130 million
New projection: 5 years, $150 million
Crew that is perhaps out: Braves. With the one-year deal given to Ha-Seong Kim for $20 million to return to Atlanta, the place he performed 24 video games on the finish of the season, the Braves would seemingly be out on Bichette. They’ve Kim at shortstop, Ozzie Albies at second and Mauricio Dubon in a utility position.
What in regards to the Mets? Bichette’s age — he is getting into his age-28 season — makes him the sort of free agent that is perhaps extra enticing to Stearns, though the Mets have their double-play combo set with Francisco Lindor and Semien. However what about Bichette transferring to 3rd? His vary at shortstop is subpar anyway, and that was earlier than the knee harm in September. Executives love his high-contact charge that ought to translate effectively to October baseball — and he would make for a terrific No. 3 hitter behind Lindor and Soto. Baty would then grow to be commerce bait for pitching or outfield assist. Do not sleep on this one.
What in regards to the Blue Jays? A return actually suits, with Andres Gimenez taking on at shortstop and Bichette sliding to second base on a everlasting foundation. However do the Jays have an urge for food to signal each Tucker and Bichette? They do additionally produce other infield choices, with Addison Barger enjoying third base after splitting time between third and proper area in 2025 and Ernie Clement enjoying second on a full-time foundation.
Prediction: Yankees. We’re attempting to learn the tea leaves right here and people Jazz Chisholm Jr. commerce rumors preserve popping up. Maybe the Yankees try to clear area for a brand new infielder? Bichette might both present another choice at shortstop to Anthony Volpe, who struggled on the plate in 2025 and noticed his protection regress as effectively, or play second, with Jose Caballero nonetheless round to again up each positions.
2025 free agent rating: 10
Preliminary projection: 5 years, $80 million
Crew that is perhaps out: Mets. Murakami and the Mets have been linked early on, however given Stearns’ defensive emphasis and the signing of Polanco to play first base — the place many scouts consider Murakami is finest suited to play — there would not appear to be a transparent match, until the Mets flip him right into a full-time DH (and Mark Vientos remains to be round for that position or might share it with Polanco).
What in regards to the Purple Sox? The Purple Sox have clearly been on the prowl for a slugger and Murakami’s energy potential is big — though it should include a number of swing-and-miss. If the Purple Sox are bored with Triston Casas‘ continued harm points, Murakami is a match at first base. His age — he turns 26 in February — additionally makes him enticing, regardless of the strikeout threat.
What in regards to the Seattle Mariners? On the winter conferences, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto mentioned the Mariners have been nonetheless all in favour of including another hitter. That clearly will not be re-signing Polanco. They have been talked about in commerce rumors for Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte. However what about conserving their prospects and simply signing Murakami to play third base and DH? The Mariners may not need to add one other strikeout-prone hitter, but when the bidding for Murakami does fall beneath 9 figures, possibly they get within the combine.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox. Murakami’s deadline to sign is Dec. 22, so we’re working out of time. His market nonetheless appears broad open. The Phillies is also an attention-grabbing match, or possibly the Los Angeles Angels need to do one thing. Certainly, if any of those high 10 free brokers land in a stunning spot, Murakami is perhaps the one. The White Sox have cash to spend — their present estimated payroll is simply $68 million and that features $20 million for Luis Robert Jr., who is perhaps traded. They’ve a determined want for energy and Murakami suits at both third or first, relying on the place Miguel Vargas finally ends up. This could be a pleasant roll of the cube for a White Sox staff that appears to be on the rise.
