In Sunday’s AFC divisional recreation, the Houston Texans journey to Foxborough, Massachusetts, for a matchup with Mike Vrabel’s New England Patriots. With each groups coming off wild-card wins — and each that includes top-10 defenses — let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the personnel and anticipated recreation plans.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and affords his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder share their greatest bets, evaluation and DFS performs that will help you get in on the motion.
Word: Odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook and topic to alter.
When the Texans have the ball
Bowen: With Nico Collins (concussion) out, Christian Kirk, who had 144 yards receiving within the wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Xavier Hutchinson and rookie Jayden Higgins will transfer up as targets for quarterback C.J. Stroud. With a Houston dashing assault that includes Woody Marks and a heavy zone-scheme strategy, the Texans can mirror the move recreation to arrange play-action throws for Stroud, as they must generate explosive performs down the sector.
Edge: Patriots
Greatest guess: Woody Marks OVER 53.5 dashing yards (-110). Marks has rushed for no less than 70 yards in two of his previous three video games, together with 112 yards versus Pittsburgh final week. I see a Texans offense that’s going to deal with the run recreation.
When the Patriots have the ball
Bowen: Led by quarterback Drake Maye, the Patriots will want solutions for man protection and two-deep zone versus a loaded Texans protection. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can scheme for Maye to play as a three-level ball distributor, whereas working backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have the dual-threat means to make affect performs for this offense.
Edge: Texans
Greatest guess: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-112). Stevenson has 55 or extra receiving yards in two of his previous three video games. He would be the checkdown/outlet for Maye, plus he can produce on display ideas.
Employees picks, greatest bets and props
Patriots -3 (-120)
Maldonado: The Patriots have extra methods to outlive an unsightly recreation. Houston’s protection is actual, however the Texans are banged up and on the street. Asking C.J. Stroud to play clear soccer with out a lot margin is a tall ask. The Patriots can take sacks, commerce punts and nonetheless discover sufficient explosive performs to separate late. With each groups struggling within the crimson zone, this comes all the way down to area place, stress and who makes the massive mistake. That doesn’t favor Stroud on the street.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-112)
Moody: Stevenson has cleared this line in 5 consecutive video games whereas averaging 3.4 targets per contest over that span. His function as a receiver ought to assist neutralize the Texans’ aggressive move rush by giving Maye a dependable security valve. Stevenson has additionally bested this quantity in 4 of his previous 5 house video games, additional strengthening the case for the over.
Woody Marks OVER 1.5 receptions (-110)
Loza: Marks didn’t convert his lone goal at Pittsburgh final Monday evening, however this week’s matchup leans in his favor. Although New England’s protection stays stout versus the run, the squad struggled to defend working backs by way of the air, permitting the fifth-most catches (a mean of almost 5 per recreation) to the place in the course of the common season. Chargers backup RB Kimani Vidal registered two grabs at Foxborough final weekend. The bar right here is low sufficient for Marks to clear.
Kyle Williams OVER 5.5 receiving yards (-108)
Moody: The Texans’ secondary has been glorious at containing opposing move catchers, however it will likely be busy with Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, and that would open alternatives for the rookie. Williams has flashed as a key deep-ball playmaker for Maye and the Patriots this season, averaging 20.9 yards per reception, which suggests he primarily wants only one catch to clear this line. He has the pace and route nuance to win downfield, and with Maye’s mobility, it is simple to ascertain this duo connecting no less than as soon as towards Houston. Williams has cleared this quantity in six of his previous 10 video games.
Kayshon Boutte 80+ receiving yards (+720)
Walder: There may be one quantity that stands out about Boutte: 30% of his routes are both deep fades or go routes. That is the very best amongst all broad receivers with no less than 300 routes by far, with the following highest being Quentin Johnston at 23%. As such, I have been making an attempt to guess Boutte’s lengthy shot alternate receiving yards traces all 12 months. Have I accomplished it solely within the weeks he hasn’t panned out? Positive. However why not strive as soon as extra?
Each day fantasy ideas for DraftKings Captain Showdown
1:23
Why Stephen A. has doubts C.J. Stroud can lead Texans previous Patriots
Stephen A. Smith explains why the percentages are stacked towards C.J. Stroud and the Texans heading into their AFC divisional spherical recreation towards the Patriots.
Loza’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): Drake Maye ($16,800). The Texans’ protection is arguably the very best within the league. However Maye’s versatile talent set makes him probably the most dependable facilitator of factors.
Additionally in my lineup: Andy Borregales ($7,500) closed out the common season with only one missed kick. He was excellent within the wild-card spherical, making all three area aim tries and an additional level versus the Chargers. Dealing with a Texans protection that limits scoring alternatives in what’s projected to be a low-scoring contest, Borregales’ leg figures to remain heat.
Maldonado’s suggestions
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy factors): Drake Maye ($16,800) creates fantasy factors even when drives stall due to scrambles, damaged performs and late-game urgency. Houston’s stress will trigger sacks, however Maye’s legs and downfield aggression maintain his ceiling intact.
Additionally in my lineup: C.J. Stroud ($10,200). His street splits are ugly, however he nonetheless touches the ball each snap and shall be pressured to throw if Houston trails. Even inefficient quantity counts in fantasy. Rubbish time and second-half passing maintain him viable.
