NFL playoffs: 11 key plays that decided the divisional round

The NFL playoffs divisional round did not lack drama. There have been tears, damaged bones, comprehensive blowouts, dramatic comebacks, lots of snow and a controversial name or two.

Younger quarterbacks put some profession highlights on their reel, and we even got here fairly near having three class of 2024 quarterbacks among the many 4 starters within the conference championship games subsequent weekend. After all, we ended up with just one, as Bo Nix suffered a season-ending broken ankle late within the Broncos’ overtime win over the Bills, whereas Caleb Williams got here up simply brief after an additional time interception helped the Rams pull out a victory in Chicago. The one quarterback from the 2024 draft class that we’ll see subsequent weekend is Drake Maye, who had the worst efficiency of the three this weekend regardless of the Patriots’ win against the Texans.

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I’ve highlighted 11 performs or moments that stood out to me from the divisional spherical, and sized up how they determined the video games we watched. We’ll go roughly chronologically by beginning with Payments-Broncos from Saturday afternoon.

Bounce to a sport:
Bills-Broncos | 49ers-Seahawks
Texans-Patriots | Rams-Bears

The state of affairs: First-and-10 from the Denver 32-yard line, Payments up 7-3 with 13:27 to go within the second quarter

There’s lots to unpack right here. Let’s begin with the Broncos’ protection. There have been actual considerations about how this unit performed after the bye, together with a four-game stretch by which it ranked twenty seventh in EPA per play earlier than going through a pair of backup quarterbacks in Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance to finish the season. Josh Allen is clearly a particular expertise, however permitting the Payments to attain 30 factors on 11 drives and never punt will not quell these considerations.

Groups have discovered methods to assault the weak spots within the Denver protection by stretching the linebackers and getting them in house as a repeated goal. The Payments had loads of success there on this sport. They used tosses and pin/pull sweeps to get the run sport working. Allen tormented the Broncos along with his legs, together with a 26-yard acquire on the play earlier than this fumble, when he feigned making an attempt to flee the pocket to the left, drew Singleton that manner after which broke upfield. And the Payments used misdirection and eye sweet to distract Singleton, notably on the 25-yard acquire to Dalton Kincaid on a leak idea, when the linebacker did not match to the tight finish’s delayed route.

what makes up for lots of that? Thwap. On this pitch to Prepare dinner, Singleton was initially blocked by Dion Dawkins, however the left deal with knocked the Broncos linebacker one hole over. Singleton did an incredible job of regaining his footing, steadying himself and delivering an ideal driving deal with on Prepare dinner, who misplaced the ball. Talanoa Hufanga did not have his greatest sport, however he was quickest to leap on the ball, giving the Broncos a key fumble restoration.

Broncos ball! Alex Singleton forces the fumble 😳

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— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2026

Simply as forcing a fumble could make up for some tough work within the open subject, dropping a fumble can overwrite many constructive moments for a working again. Prepare dinner had an excellent sport on the entire, working 24 instances for 117 yards and including a 24-yard catch on a fast throw to the flat. He led the league in dashing this season, racking up 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns. And Prepare dinner features way more yardage even when he would not get room to run as a result of his imaginative and prescient on duo and talent to search out and stretch cutback lanes to create further yardage on zone runs are actually particular.

And but, Prepare dinner completed the season with minus-12.6 dashing EPA. He ranked One hundred and twentieth amongst all backs in cumulative EPA, behind guys comparable to Dylan Laube, who had seven carries for 9 yards as a little-used backup for the Raiders. After all, the rationale was fumbles. Prepare dinner fumbled six instances through the common season, greater than every other again. Getting 309 carries will increase the chance of fumbling, however fumbling as soon as each 51.5 makes an attempt is a significant setback. Not all fumbles are recovered by the opposing protection, but when they’re, they take potential factors off the board and hand the opposition the ball with favorable subject place.

EPA means that the influence of these fumbles erases a large quantity of the great Prepare dinner brings to the offense. I do not imagine Prepare dinner is the One hundred and twentieth-best again within the NFL, nor do I believe he was much less worthwhile or productive than Laube this season. Up to now, when even nice backs comparable to Barry Sanders and Shaun Alexander have been routinely fumbling 4 instances per 12 months, fumbling six instances wasn’t an enormous deal. Now, although, when the remainder of the league’s backs are fumbling as soon as each 161 carries — as they did this previous season — Prepare dinner fumbling 3 times as a lot doesn’t assist.

And it performed an enormous function on this sport. The Payments have been marching up and down the sphere on the Broncos early on. Buffalo led 7-3 and had the ball in subject objective vary with a brand new set of downs. If the Payments go up 14-3, does the sport change? As a substitute, the Broncos took over on their 31-yard line and marched downfield with no need a 3rd down till the ultimate play of the drive, when Bo Nix hit backup lineman Frank Crum within the flat for a 1-yard landing.

Fumble luck is one thing nerds like me say is significant, and it performed an enormous function in deciding this sport. There have been seven fumbles within the sport. A Jaleel McLaughlin fumble contained in the 5-yard line was recovered by the Payments, nevertheless it was wiped off due to an offside penalty by Larry Ogunjobi. Nix ought to have had a landing move shortly thereafter, however a drop led to a subject objective. The Broncos got here away with three factors.

The opposite six fumbles all counted, although. 4 of them went Denver’s manner. Along with the Prepare dinner fumble, Allen misplaced a pair of fumbles to Broncos star Nik Bonitto, with Denver turning each of these recoveries into subject objectives. Allen recovered a fumble on a foul snap by backup middle Alec Anderson, who was in for Connor McGovern, which led to a sack. (McGovern acquired damage making an attempt to get better Prepare dinner’s fumble.) The Broncos recovered a ball that hit the bottom on a damaged flea-flicker, and the Payments picked up one other Allen fumble later within the sport.

These three subject objectives helped ship the sport to additional time. And although some fumbles cannot be prevented, sending Allen out with 17 seconds to go within the first half and no timeouts was clearly an ill-advised determination. It might be one factor to launch a ball to the sideline, however even when Allen had gotten down after the scramble, the Payments would not have had time for something greater than a Hail Mary. It was terrible situational soccer from a veteran group that ought to know higher.

Coach Sean McDermott hadn’t gotten a lot worth for these timeouts. The Payments used one on offense after the primary play of the sport, the second on protection after they had 12 males on the sphere after a Broncos timeout and the third after the subsequent play, when Cam Lewis made a deal with and could not get off the sphere after struggling a cramp. And when that occurred, the sport swung once more …

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The state of affairs: Second-and-10 from the Buffalo 29-yard line, rating tied 10-10 with 0:22 to go within the second quarter

Lewis was in the course of doing an admirable job. He is usually within the combine at slot nook, however the Payments determined midweek to shift Lewis to security. After losing Taylor Rapp in October, the Payments turned to veteran Jordan Poyer, however the 34-year-old went down with a hamstring injury final week against the Jaguars. Rookie fifth-rounder Jordan Hancock crammed in, however McDermott thought Lewis could be higher with per week of prep. He had a stable sport, each earlier than the damage and as soon as returning after halftime.

When Lewis went down cramping, although, the Payments have been compelled to show to security Darnell Savage, who was cut in-season by Jacksonville and spent a lot of the 12 months in Washington. Savage joined the Payments in December, performed one defensive snap against the Eagles, a full sport in Week 18 alongside backups against the Jets after which got here on the sphere for a grand complete of three defensive snaps towards the Broncos. The third and last defensive snap will hang-out Savage and Payments followers for a very long time.

On the play, the Payments present single-high protection earlier than dropping right into a two-deep shell. The Broncos boot Nix out to the correct aspect and are flooding that aspect of the ball with routes, a standard development for Denver all through the season and through this sport. They’ve Marvin Mims Jr. working a go route, Courtland Sutton coming throughout the sphere on a deep over route and Tyler Badie within the flat. Savage acknowledges this route mixture, and we are able to see him working to squeeze excessive on Sutton’s deep crosser.

The issue is there is a fourth move catcher, and he is heading the opposite manner. Humphrey runs his route vertically out of the slot, and when Savage begins to show towards the over route, Nix and Humphrey know they’ve a chance. Humphrey cuts his route again towards the other pylon, and Nix launches into his throw. Savage almost runs into Humphrey, and whereas he turns round to attempt to contest the throw, he is too late. Humphrey’s 29-yard landing gave the Broncos a 17-10 lead. That lead grew to 10 factors after Allen’s fumble on the subsequent play from scrimmage.

Redemption for Lil’Jordan Humphrey!

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Nice teaching by Sean Payton, proper? Wait till you hear about when he pulled the identical trick once more! Within the fourth quarter, with the Broncos trailing by 4 factors and driving for a possible game-winning landing, the Payments misplaced cornerback Tre’Davious White briefly after a third-down conversion by Nix. In got here veteran cornerback Dane Jackson, a longtime Payments participant who had been known as again to the constructing after spending 2024 with the Panthers. Jackson performed a complete of three defensive snaps through the common season. This was his first and solely snap of the postseason.

The Broncos known as timeout earlier than the play, giving Payton time to hatch his plan. Earlier than the snap, Denver uses motion to kick Jackson exterior and isolate him towards Mims, the group’s quickest wideout after Denver misplaced Troy Franklin to an in-game hamstring injury. The Payments ship a five-man rush, maintain a sixth man spying Nix and have a security within the deep center of the sphere, leaving them with man protection all over the place else. With Cole Bishop flying to the flat to take his man, Jackson has no assist towards Mims, who runs a double transfer to the pylon. It isn’t unhealthy protection, however Mims is simply fast sufficient to get a half-step on Jackson, and Nix delivers an incredible throw.

There is a lengthy checklist of issues Payments followers will rue about this sport. There are causes to be annoyed with McDermott (who was fired Monday morning), GM Brandon Beane, Allen and a bunch of others. However generally, an damage on the incorrect time ruins your probabilities. Return to the second 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl and you will see Chris Jones working free on the quarterback to explode a vital third-down play in additional time when Spencer Burford — who was in for the injured Jon Feliciano — blew an task and let the most effective defender in that sport run free. The 49ers misplaced Dre Greenlaw to a torn Achilles, and the Chiefs repeatedly threw at his substitute, Oren Burks.

Nice coaches adapt and reap the benefits of weaknesses. The Payments did it, too; would they’ve been so aggressive blitzing Nix within the second half if it weren’t for the Broncos dropping Franklin and Pat Bryant to in-game accidents? Payton did not have an ideal sport — the Broncos had all of 1 designed run with their working backs towards a porous Payments run protection after the third quarter — however he got here up with two key performs to assault lacking Buffalo defenders to assist get the Broncos to the subsequent spherical.

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3. Allen misses an open Dawson Knox

The state of affairs: Third-and-10 from the Denver 32-yard line, Broncos up 30-27 with 0:16 to go within the fourth quarter

This is not the primary crushing postseason loss for the Payments in recent times, however I am undecided we have ever seen Allen have the response he did on the podium after the game, with the star quarterback holding again tears in entrance of reporters whereas suggesting that he had let his teammates down. It was a heartbreaking second for a participant who has fought by means of accidents all season and nearly singlehandedly carried the Payments to victories at instances. Allen definitely has nothing to be ashamed of, and it was no accident that teammates like Dawkins scoffed at the concept Allen had let the Payments down after the sport. Allen made a variety of unbelievable performs, and he has been the most effective participant in soccer over the previous three years.

One week after taking part in an almost flawless sport towards the Jaguars, although, Allen had a handful of performs he wish to take again towards the Broncos. We mentioned the fumble earlier than halftime earlier, when Allen wasn’t cautious with the soccer on the incorrect time. The Bonitto strip sack after halftime was maybe much less on the quarterback, however nobody needs to fumble on back-to-back sequence. There have been a variety of move performs, although, with which the Payments had a chance to attain and did not.

Two key ones performed out within the fourth quarter, and this was the larger of the 2. With the Payments having pushed into subject objective vary trailing by three factors, Allen had a few probabilities to take photographs to the top zone. Going through a third-and-10 from the Denver 32-yard line with 16 seconds left, the Payments acquired into empty and had the Broncos protection in Cowl 3.

Knox is not essentially the most dynamic receiver, however he has a dependable pair of palms and is a stable route runner. He acquired himself open right here, working a put up route previous Singleton and bending it away from P.J. Locke, the deep security. The Broncos did not match to the route rapidly sufficient, leaving what was frankly a reasonably important window given the sport state of affairs. Allen sailed his move excessive. It wasn’t a simple throw, given that there is exercise round Allen, nevertheless it’s one he would count on to make, both by discovering a greater angle or attending to the route a bit of earlier.

Allen misses Dawson Knox on the final snap of regulation earlier than the sphere objective. pic.twitter.com/eDSGlSO4Qn

— Invoice Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 18, 2026

If Knox catches this ball, there is a respectable likelihood he scores and Allen has written a triumphant chapter of Buffalo playoff historical past. Even when he will get tackled by Locke or Pat Surtain II, the Payments can use their final timeout and have the ball proper across the 5-yard line with about eight seconds left, leaving them with sufficient time to run no less than one play within the shadow of the top zone. Clearly, there is no assure they rating on that play, both, however there’s no less than a good likelihood this sport by no means will get to additional time.

This wasn’t the one near-miss in regulation. Return to the prior drive, when the Payments have been up one and had the ball within the purple zone. Going through a third-and-8, the Broncos despatched a six-man blitz at Allen. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady had a great name in return, with a tunnel display dialed as much as Khalil Shakir. Jonathon Cooper did a pleasant job feeling the display and might need been capable of blow it up when Curtis Samuel turned upfield to dam a defensive again, nevertheless it did not matter, as Allen double-clutched his throw and one-hopped the move to Shakir.

With higher execution, that display might need scored or picked up a primary down. A landing there would have put the Payments up eight with an additional level or 9 if that they had been courageous sufficient to try (after which convert) a 2-point conversion. In the long run, they settled for 3, and the Broncos scored a landing to take the lead on the following drive.

It wasn’t all on Allen. Buffalo’s much-maligned huge receiver corps had a tough sport, led by their veteran imports. Brandin Cooks had an extended catch on the sideline dominated incomplete when his wrist landed out of bounds. With 24 seconds left in regulation, Cooks acquired a step on Riley Moss on a path to the top zone, however the veteran wideout slowed down about 3 miles per hour, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, as he crossed the objective line and wasn’t capable of meet up with Allen’s throw.

Mecole Hardman Jr., who introduced in a 4-yard landing earlier within the sport to make his first catch in a Payments uniform, additionally gave the impression to be on a special web page than his star quarterback in additional time. On the play earlier than Allen’s controversial interception, the Payments acquired the single-high look they have been anticipating. Cooks cleared out Moss beneath, leaving an enormous swath of house for Hardman to run a deep out from the slot. Allen’s throw was on time and earlier than Hardman rotated to make his break, however the wideout possible ran his route deeper than Allen anticipated, turning what ought to have been a simple completion right into a low throw and an incomplete move.

In case you’re on the lookout for a scapegoat for the Payments’ loss, you are losing your time. There wasn’t one individual accountable. Jackson, Savage and Hardman have been all in-season additions who have been solely on the sphere due to accidents to the gamers forward of them, with the Payments dropping two totally different wideouts to torn ACLs final week alone. Cooks had a bigger function late within the season, however he has repeatedly been capable of get open throughout his time in Buffalo. All of them deserve a number of the blame, and whereas it is unfair to pin an excessive amount of on Allen given how important he has been to Buffalo getting right here, he deserves some too.

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4. Ja’Quan McMillian intercepts Allen in additional time … I believe

The state of affairs: Third-and-11 from the Buffalo 36-yard line, scored tied 30-30 with 7:55 to go in additional time

What’s going to linger with Payments followers deep into the offseason, in fact, is what occurred in additional time. On the play after Hardman’s miss, the Payments acquired Cooks matched up on a deep put up away from McMillian within the slot. Cooks had a step on the youthful cornerback, however after they each went up for the contested catch, McMillian got here out of the pile with the soccer.

JA’QUAN MCMILLIAN INTERCEPTION

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I am glad I did not need to make this name. It appears impossibly shut, and clearly, it performed an enormous function in deciding the sport, on condition that the Payments would have been in subject objective vary if Cooks had caught the move. There was additionally some push after-the-fact to name move interference on McMillian given what occurred on the following drive, though I am undecided that is actually warranted.

The argument appears fairly easy, though I am undecided it can persuade McDermott or Payments followers with entry to screenshot know-how. Cooks would get the reception if this had been a case of simultaneous possession, since ties go to the receiver, however as a result of Cooks did not full the catch as he hit the bottom, he did not possess the soccer. (Comparisons to an Aaron Rodgers play from Week 14 do not add up, as Rodgers was dominated to have possessed the soccer on the bottom, whereas Cooks didn’t.)

What made this worse, in fact, is what occurred subsequent. The Broncos threw a fast move to RJ Harvey, and Shaq Thompson and Cole Bishop each missed tackles, with Harvey going for twenty-four yards. The remainder of Denver’s yardage to get in vary for the game-winning subject objective got here on move interference penalties, as Taron Johnson was flagged for 17 yards earlier than White took a 30-yard penalty. The veteran nook added an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for throwing a tantrum and his helmet after the subsequent snap.

Did the refs name additional time otherwise than regulation? The outcomes have been definitely totally different, given that there have been no move interference calls in regulation, whereas the Payments have been flagged twice on the ultimate drive of the sport. Do we all know that there have been loads of alternatives to name move interference throughout regulation, although? I’ve seen considerations that Riley Moss ought to have been flagged on the throw to Cooks I discussed earlier, however that was additionally on a snap the place Cooks slowed down on his personal. By the point Moss makes contact with Cooks’ arm, the throw was previous him and uncatchable.

Have been these two calls incorrect? The second on White was certainly right, though the veteran cornerback swears in any other case. The primary one on Johnson was extra ticky-tack, however I am undecided it mattered. On the line of scrimmage, Joey Bosa was flagged for an obvious roughing the passer penalty, and the Broncos declined to select up the move interference name. Whether or not the Broncos accepted a 17-yard move interference penalty or a 15-yard roughing the passer name, they have been selecting up a primary down due to a Payments mistake on this snap.

The best factor to do is scale back an in depth sport to a (perceived) unhealthy name or subpar teaching determination. It is much more troublesome to interrupt down what truly occurred over the whole lot of it and contextualize what occurred round these calls. And I am undecided that the Payments have been truly impacted by a incorrect name amongst these three additional time snaps, on condition that the roughing the passer penalty would have merely changed the primary move interference name on Johnson.

That is not going to cease some Payments followers from remembering this loss as a product of unhealthy officiating, and whereas I do not agree, that is their proper. I might look again to a different sport from the previous for example of how lowering video games to 1 snap or one name would not do what truly occurred justice. And coincidentally, in fact, it is a very well-known sport the place the calls did not go Payton’s manner.

In contrast to this Payments-Broncos sport, I do not suppose there’s anyone who believes that the refs within the 2018 NFC Championship Game have been appropriate to carry onto their flags when Nickell Robey-Coleman hit Tommylee Lewis earlier than the ball arrived on a third-down wheel route. Even Rams followers must admit that Robey-Coleman acquired away with an apparent move interference name, one which even led the league to briefly permit coaches to problem PI (earlier than dismissing those challenges for half a season.) A penalty there would have allowed the Saints to run down the clock and kick a brief subject objective to interrupt a 20-20 tie with about 15 seconds left within the sport.

What’s misplaced to historical past, although, is all of the methods the Saints did not win the sport with no need to depend on one name. The Saints dominated the Rams early, however they settled for 2 subject objectives within the purple zone within the first quarter. Up 13-0 after quarter-hour, one of many league’s greatest offenses scored a complete of seven factors throughout its subsequent 5 possessions. The Saints ought to have ended this sport as a contest earlier than that abysmal non-call.

Even after the missed name, the Saints nonetheless had probabilities to win the sport. Stopping the Rams on the following drive with 1:41 to go would have despatched the Saints to the Tremendous Bowl, however New Orleans allowed Jared Goff to drive 45 yards to arrange a game-tying subject objective. And whereas the Saints even gained the additional time coin toss throughout an period when an opening-drive landing would have allowed you to win the sport, Drew Brees threw an interception on the fourth play of the additional session, setting the Rams up for an NFC-winning subject objective.

There is a basic phrase in fight sports activities: Do not depart the battle within the palms of the judges. The Saints did so and had their season disrupted by a really terrible name. I am undecided the Payments have been wronged by the choices in additional time, however they undoubtedly had loads of alternatives to win this sport earlier than they acquired there and did not do a adequate job. They left would-be touchdowns on the sphere and turned the ball over 4 instances in regulation earlier than the interception in additional time. It is a testomony to Allen that they even got here near profitable with that type of components.

5. Rashid Shaheed returns the opening kickoff 95 yards for a landing

The state of affairs: Kickoff from the San Francisco 35-yard line, rating tied 0-0 with 15:00 to go within the first quarter

There’s a lot much less controversy available within the second sport of the weekend, when the Seahawks acquired off to a dominant begin and by no means appeared again. Shaheed’s kickoff return landing was a spectacular second from a battle of two of the league’s greatest particular groups models.

Primarily, the Seahawks pulled out the equal of a entice run to liberate Shaheed. After the previous Saints huge receiver introduced within the kick, fullback Brady Russell pulled to kick out security Siran Neal and the Seahawks double-teamed linebacker Garret Wallow to create a working lane. (Russell truly maxed out at 20 mph on the play, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, which was quicker than Shaheed.) And 49ers cornerback Chase Lucas got here all the best way throughout the sphere to attempt to make a deal with, however when Shaheed shrugged off his diving try, he was one-on-one towards Niners kicker Eddy Pineiro, whose tried slide deal with would have earned a yellow card for denying a goal-scoring alternative had this been a Seattle Sounders sport.

RASHID SHAHEED 95-YARD KICKOFF RETURN TO START THE GAME.

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Shaheed is having one of many weirdest seasons in a Seahawks uniform I can bear in mind. He has accomplished nearly nothing as a receiver since becoming a member of the group in a midseason trade, because the 27-year-old has racked up 188 receiving yards throughout 10 video games in Seattle. Shaheed did not have a single receiving yard in a sport by which quarterback Sam Darnold threw solely 17 passes. If GM John Schneider knew that Shaheed would common solely about 19 receiving yards per sport, I am undecided he would have been thrilled to ship fourth- and fifth-round picks to the Saints for him.

After all, all the things else that Shaheed has accomplished has made him worthwhile. He had seven carries for 64 yards with the Seahawks through the common season, then added a 30-yarder on an end-around towards the 49ers on Saturday. Shaheed managed each kickoff and punt return touchdowns with the Seahawks, with the latter serving to to spur the vital comeback victory over the Rams, then added one other kickoff return landing to get the blowout going towards the 49ers. As a move catcher, Shaheed has been irrelevant. As a runner and returner, he has been important.

There’s one other commerce from Schneider’s previous that looms right here, in fact. In 2013, Schneider traded a first-round pick to the Vikings for Percy Harvin, then signed the proficient wideout to a six-year, $67 million extension. Harvin then missed nearly all the common season, catching one move for 17 yards. He had 4 extra for 26 extra yards within the postseason, however Harvin’s time with the Seahawks is remembered for one factor: his 87-yard kick return within the Super Bowl against the Broncos in what could be a decisive Seattle victory. (Or maybe his fight with Golden Tate earlier than the sport.)

Harvin was traded 5 video games into the next season. The Seahawks paid him greater than $18 million for 176 receiving yards. Did the kick return landing in a sport by which they have been already up 22-0 change something? Was {that a} good commerce? Most likely not. Do Schneider or Seahawks followers remorse it? Nope. The Shaheed commerce may ship an analogous type of receiving manufacturing, however the speedy wideout has already accomplished a lot to justify this deal, particularly with a lot much less heading out in the best way of draft capital.

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The state of affairs: First-and-10 from the San Francisco 15-yard line, Seahawks up 27-6 with 2:23 to go within the third quarter

This was only a beatdown, with the Seahawks’ protection residing within the backfield to torment San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy. Shedding working again Christian McCaffrey through the sport and falling behind early did not assist the 49ers, however Purdy spent most of this sport working for his life. The Seahawks pressured Purdy on slightly below 40% of his dropbacks whereas blitzing solely 12% of the time. The secondary squeezed Purdy’s preliminary reads, and by the point he acquired to choice Nos. 2 and three, the move rush was on its manner.

We already know the Seattle protection is nice, although, and what occurred on the Seahawks’ offense of the ball is perhaps extra fascinating. In my playoff preview, I famous that the Seattle working sport had improved within the second half of the season, most notably by creating extra explosive performs on the bottom. Walker is just too athletic of a again to go lengthy stretches with out creating 20-yard runs, and we noticed extra massive performs from him and Zach Charbonnet down the stretch.

Charbonnet left this sport due to a knee damage, placing the onus of the workload on Walker. And what he did was out of character for the Seahawks’ run sport — he made it constant. Success fee has been an issue for Walker and the Seahawks going again to the start of his tenure in Seattle. Since 2022, Walker’s 37.4% success fee is the third-worst fee amongst backs with 500 or extra carries, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. On Saturday, although, Walker managed a 63.2% success fee. That was his second-best success fee in a single sport behind a Week 2 efficiency against the Steelers earlier this season. And Walker’s seven first downs on the bottom tied for his single-game excessive over that three-year span.

Success fee is a product of each the working again and the offensive line, and I selected this play as a result of each did their jobs. This was one of many cleanest snaps they’ve had all season. With the Seahawks working exterior zone, everyone wins on their blocks, together with Grey Zabel initially serving to on a double-team earlier than getting upfield and sealing off the linebacker. Left deal with Amari Kight, in for the injured Charles Cross, does a great job of getting throughout 49ers edge Sam Okuayinonu and blocking him with out holding as Walker will get exterior. Walker is affected person and waits to bounce his run upfield, and when he does, he accelerates ahead for a simple rating.

Kenneth Walker has one other! Seahawks lead 34-6!

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At its core, coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense needs to run the ball on these zone runs with a constantly excessive success fee. Seattle hasn’t been capable of run effectively for a lot of the season, with Darnold bailing out the offense by selecting up enormous chunks of yardage off play-action. (That serves as a reminder that groups needn’t run the ball effectively to get play-action going; they merely must persuade linebackers that they are keen to run the ball.)

Darnold has struggled badly because the first sport towards the Rams in November, dropping from first in Complete QBR earlier than the sport to twenty seventh since. The Seahawks have been capable of survive, as an alternative, by dashing. The 49ers aren’t stiff competitors given the accidents they’ve on protection, but when the Seahawks can run the ball this successfully within the NFC Championship Sport, it could possibly be transformative for his or her offense.

The state of affairs: Fourth-and-1 from the Houston 28-yard line, rating tied 0-0 with 9:35 to go within the first quarter

This wasn’t an incredible sport for the MVP candidate. For the second consecutive week, Maye merely held the ball too lengthy within the pocket and did not do a adequate job of defending it. Whereas a type of fumbles got here on a damaged play by which Maye did not have a handoff choice, determined to run upfield himself and had the ball knocked out as he was selecting up a primary down, Maye simply did not play effectively.

There have been exceptions, in fact, and this fourth-and-1 was probably the greatest performs of the sport for the Patriots. It got here from a slant/flat idea the Patriots repeatedly got to during this game, together with on each of the early landing passes to Douglas and Stefon Diggs.

On this play, the Texans blitz and play Cowl 0, with man protection throughout the board. The Texans are bringing Jalen Pitre off the sting on the snap, however Maye initially works to the flat and Rhamondre Stevenson‘s route, which stops Pitre, who needs to attempt to soar and tip the move away. That flat route might need been out there if Maye had lofted the ball over Pitre, however the second-year professional stayed affected person and labored to his subsequent learn.

That learn was Douglas on the slant, and whereas he had favorable leverage towards Calen Bullock, there wasn’t lots of house for this ball. Maye’s throw needed to be precise, and it was. Bullock almost will get to the slant as he dives, however Maye’s throw prevents Bullock from making sufficient of a play on the ball to interrupt it up. And with no security assist, Douglas has loads of house to show upfield for a landing.

MAYE. DOUGLAS. 28-YARD TD ON 4TH AND 1!

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The Texans largely averted the blitz on this sport, as they despatched further rushers at Maye on solely six events. They did not must given the success Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and that entrance have been having, so the blitz was extra of a schematic changeup than one thing that drove important success for the Texans.

What did matter right here, although, was the decision-making. New England coach Mike Vrabel selected to go for it on fourth-and-1 in lieu of making an attempt a 46-yard subject objective. There would have been lots of anecdotal causes to justify kicking. It is good to take an early lead! Who would not need to come away with factors? In a low-scoring sport with unhealthy circumstances, factors are treasured!

All of these issues are true, however the different arguments are extra compelling. This sport was performed in snowy circumstances, which could not have made kicking simple. The Texans have an incredible protection, and whereas Vrabel could not have identified how the remainder of the sport was going to play out, the possibilities that the Patriots have been going to march and up and down the sphere have been going to be slim. When factors are at a premium, what that normally means is that you just will not get many probabilities to attain. And in that type of a sport, a landing is much more worthwhile, because the different group may want three subject objectives to beat one TD.

Subsequent Gen Stats had this as a transparent “go” state of affairs, with the Patriots enhancing their win expectancy by 3.3% just by trying a fourth-down conversion, not to mention succeeding or scoring a landing. Given the state of affairs, I might argue the opposite elements, together with climate and opponent, solely made this a extra apparent determination to attempt to convert on fourth down.

DeMeco Ryans, alternatively, is perhaps essentially the most conservative coach in soccer. The Texans went for it simply 13.7% of the time on fourth down this season, the second-lowest fee within the league. That jumped to 18.9% of the time when Houston was on the opposing aspect of the sphere, which was final within the league. I have been keen to provide Ryans some good thing about the doubt on condition that he has an elite protection and a really terrible run sport, however the Texans did have success on tush pushes with their tight ends this season, giving them a fourth-down resolution in short-yardage spots.

In a sport throughout which his offense did not get many alternatives, although, Ryans merely stayed too conservative for too lengthy, particularly after he acquired to comprehend what this contest would appear like. Within the third quarter, with 9:45 to go and the Texans down by 11 factors, Ryans determined to kick a field goal on fourth-and-2 from New England’s 7-yard line. That is a large mistake, with ESPN’s mannequin seeing it as a 3.8% swing of win expectancy towards the Patriots. It introduced the sport inside eight factors, however the Texans have been nonetheless going to want to attain a landing, get a 2-point conversion and rating once more with out permitting the Pats to attain.

Within the fourth quarter, Ryans simply appeared to place off dropping for so long as doable. Down 12 factors with 12:09 to go, the Texans punted on fourth-and-6 from their very own 27-yard line. The Patriots promptly ran six minutes off the clock and punted. On the subsequent drive, after C.J. Stroud was sacked on third down, the Texans confronted a nearly unattainable state of affairs with a fourth-and-18 and 4:17 to go. No good decisions right here, however once more, Ryans punted. It wasn’t till the Texans have been actually out of choices, with 1:11 to go, that Ryans went for it in a troublesome fourth-down spot, at which level an incompletion ended the sport.

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8. Marcus Jones returns a Stroud interception 26 yards for a landing

The state of affairs: First-and-10 from the Houston 25-yard line, Texans up 10-7 with 10:31 to go within the second quarter

At the same time as they compelled 5 takeaways on protection, the Patriots weren’t capable of run away with this sport (partially as a result of they turned the ball over 3 times themselves). Maye and the offense merely weren’t capable of capitalize on these Houston errors. They turned 4 of the Texans turnovers into zero factors, although two of these alternatives handed the Pats the ball round midfield.

The one exception was when the Patriots protection turned one of many takeaways into factors by itself. This was on a first-and-10 halfway by means of the second quarter. The Texans have been looking for Stroud a simple completion, working play-action to the correct after which sending Stroud out on a unadorned bootleg to the left, the place he was alleged to have a fast choice within the flat in tight finish Harrison Bryant.

Here is the place dominating the road of scrimmage can have sudden results. On the snap, Milton Williams — New England’s prized free agent addition final offseason — drove left deal with Aireontae Ersery backward. Stroud had an unblocked K’Lavon Chaisson on him after the play faux, which is by design, however the quarterback is predicted to both take a deep sufficient drop to create house towards the unblocked defender or get the ball out rapidly into the flat. There wasn’t anyone there, although. Ersery had been knocked thus far backward that he tripped Bryant, who fell down, leaving Stroud largely helpless.

MARCUS JONES PICK-6!

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Xavier Hutchinson had run away from Christian Gonzalez on the second degree and had a few steps, however throwing it up for him turned out to be disastrous. Stroud most likely wanted to only settle for that the play was blown up and both go down or attempt to outrun Chaisson to the sting. As a substitute, he tried to drive the ball to Hutchinson. Chaisson smacked Stroud as he launched the ball, and the move went up into no man’s land. Jones caught what amounted to a brief punt and returned it for a pick-six, with Hutchinson throwing the Pats defensive again into the top zone by his facemask over the pylon.

The sport was performed below ugly climate circumstances, and spending most of it down his prime two move catchers in Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz did not assist, however there is no option to sugarcoat how Stroud performed right here. He completed the sport with a 21.0 Complete QBR, which was higher than Maye (20.7) however not by a lot. Stroud threw 4 interceptions, and whereas not all of them have been the younger quarterback’s fault, there have been 4 or 5 different throws into harmful locations that additionally might have resulted in picks.

I would not draw huge conclusions about Stroud’s future from one unhealthy sport. It has been an inconsistent 12 months for the third-year quarterback, and he hasn’t actually hit the heights of his rookie season. Stroud’s largest power has been his means to guard the soccer, and now he has turned the ball over seven instances in two playoff video games this season. Turnovers have not been an issue for him in prior playoff campaigns, however Stroud appeared shell-shocked for a lot of this postseason.

The issue is that the Texans actually have not mounted the issues they’ve confronted through the entirety of the Stroud period. Over the previous three years, the Texans are thirty first in EPA per play through the common season on designed rushes. Their two backs had 18 carries for 31 yards on Sunday. The offensive line has gone by means of an entire makeover, however the Texans weren’t capable of maintain up towards a Patriots entrance that wasn’t all that devastating through the common season, even when it had Williams within the combine. New England held the Texans to a 32.7% success fee on offense. Solely the Jets (with Brady Cook at quarterback) and Browns (with Dillon Gabriel) had worse days within the 2025 season.

The issue is about to get dearer to unravel. GM Nick Caserio has been afforded lots of latitude to repair what’s round Stroud whereas his star quarterback has been on a rookie deal. Now, Stroud’s eligible for an extension. So is DE Will Anderson Jr., who was completely unblockable for stretches of this sport. Their brokers ought to ask for his or her purchasers to develop into the highest-paid gamers within the league at their respective positions.

Anderson’s a simple promote. However would the Texans pay Stroud $65 million per 12 months? Two years in the past, coming off his unbelievable rookie season, that appeared apparent. Now, with Stroud both stagnating or taking a step backward, it appears extra harmful. I take a look at Trevor Lawrence, whose extension appeared like an albatross for a 12-month interval earlier than he turned issues round and acquired sizzling late in 2025, however that got here solely after the Jags modified their teaching workers and far of the offense round him. At this level, ready a 12 months and seeing what occurs in 12 months 4 of the Stroud period may make extra sense, even when most groups need to get their quarterback offers accomplished as early as doable.

9. Caleb Williams hits Cole Kmet for the longest 14-yard landing ever

The state of affairs: Fourth-and-4 from the Los Angeles 14-yard line, Rams up 17-10 with 0:18 to go within the fourth quarter

I wasn’t going to start out anyplace else, was I? In a season stuffed with spectacular performs in key moments for Williams and the Bears, the second-year quarterback managed to prime his fourth-down conversion from last week with a play Bears followers will not neglect for a few years to come back. It must be the one 14-yard landing move ever to journey greater than 50 yards within the air, with Williams finishing the deepest move of the Next Gen Stats era when it comes to distance behind the road of scrimmage (26.5 yards).

NO WAY. CALEB WILLIAMS HEAVES IT ON 4TH DOWN.

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On prime of being an unimaginable throw, it is also the precise sort of play myself and lots of others wished coach Ben Johnson to get out of Williams’ system this offseason. One of many worst habits quarterbacks can take from the faculty sport to the professionals is that development of working straight backward towards stress, hoping to outrun slower linemen earlier than discovering an open receiver with a hero-ball throw. It was a significant concern for Williams when he was at his worst final season.

This was one hell of a time to convey it again. Going through fourth down with Chicago’s complete season on the road, Williams was pressured fast by Jared Verse, who went by means of left deal with Joe Thuney. (Restored to the left deal with spot the place he had a nightmarish sport for the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, Thuney had an otherwise-solid sport given the circumstances.) With no person open, Williams merely ran 20 yards backward to purchase himself a while after which delivered a really good move to the again of the top zone, the place Kmet extricated himself from tight protection by Cobie Durant and introduced in a season-extending landing.

Williams has made a variety of unimaginable, high-velocity, off-platform throws this offseason, however this was his official ascension into the “solely they’ll do this” membership. There is a checklist of NFL quarterbacks who come up after we see seemingly unattainable throws. Allen. Patrick Mahomes. Justin Herbert. Matthew Stafford may nonetheless be in that membership. I am undecided how one can convey that group up and never embrace Williams. You are not alleged to be bodily able to making this move, not to mention delivering it completely within the course of.

Ought to the Bears have gone for 2 afterward? I believe you would make an affordable case for both aspect. In case you imagine that momentum would uplift one group and devastate one other with one massive play, effectively, it is laborious to argue that there was any play extra heartbreaking for the protection or extra enthralling for the offense than Williams’ landing. (I am going again to the 2015 divisional round, when Aaron Rodgers hit a Hail Mary on the ultimate snap of the sport earlier than the Packers confronted this similar determination, because the closest comparable.)

The Bears are constructed by means of their run sport, and on the entire this season, they have been a lot better on offense than they have been on protection. Towards a Rams group that was favored heading into the competition, the Bears may imagine that they’ve a greater shot at changing a 2-pointer to win the sport than heading into additional time, on condition that the Rams have been going to take over with 20 seconds and three timeouts after the play. And whereas we might like to imagine that further factors are automated, effectively, I am unable to be the one one that watched a Bears kick at dwelling to tie the sport with my fingers over my eyes.

On the similar time, the Bears did not have Colston Loveland, who transformed a 2-pointer for them towards the Packers, because the rookie tight finish left the sport with 1:45 to go after an 18-yard catch with a concussion and did not return. The Bears protection had performed a wonderful sport towards Stafford, and so the notion of the Bears being the underdogs heading into the competition might need been one thing nearer to a fair matchup in actuality.

And as Johnson famous after the sport, the Bears actually hadn’t had an incredible day in short-yardage or close to the objective line. That they had run six performs contained in the 5-yard line and scored as soon as, and even that play required Williams to come back off his first learn earlier than hitting DJ Moore for a 3-yard landing. They have been taking part in with an offensive line that did not have a lot expertise collectively, on condition that left guard Jordan McFadden had been on the sphere a grand complete of three offensive snaps over the prior two seasons mixed earlier than taking part in 81 offensive snaps on Sunday evening.

The choice to kick the PAT did not work out too terribly for the Bears. The Rams responded to the additional level by kneeling and going to additional time. Chicago gained the toss and elected to kick, and after the Rams went three-and-out to start out OT, the Bears have been in place to win with a subject objective. Williams then transformed on third-and-4 and fourth-and-1 along with his legs to get to midfield earlier than throwing his third interception of the sport (extra on that in a minute).

If something, the extra damaging determination from Johnson got here earlier within the sport. Johnson is a really aggressive coach and saved his foot on the fuel pedal towards the Rams, however as the sport wore on and it an unexpectedly tight defensive wrestle, Johnson made a extra conventional name. After Kyle Monangai was stuffed on a third-and-1 run simply in need of midfield, the Bears let the third quarter finish. Once they got here again, Johnson punted, costing the Bears three factors of win expectancy by the NFL Subsequent Gen Stats mannequin.

That is the precise type of state of affairs the place we hear (sometimes affordable) arguments for what analytics cannot seize. The Bears did not need to give the Rams any momentum by handing them a brief subject. This was a low-scoring sport the place each defenses have been taking part in effectively. Chicago had simply been stuffed on the prior play. In a sport with the standard Bears protection, Johnson needs to be aggressive. On this one, with the Bears holding the Rams to 10 factors by means of three quarters? Kicking and taking part in subject place felt like the correct name … proper?

Effectively, there is a purpose the bottom fee fallacy exists, and there are moments the place assuming sport conditions will proceed to play out the best way they do can go incorrect. The Rams out of the blue remembered that they have been allowed to run the ball on the following drive, and their offense sparked to life. They picked up the yardage from the punt after 4 performs. Stafford transformed a third-and-6 for a primary down earlier than a Puka Nacua jet sweep picked up a fourth-and-1 contained in the purple zone. And a Kyren Williams landing gave the Rams a 17-10 lead, placing the Bears in peril till Williams finally answered again with the sport on the road.

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10. Williams is picked off by Kam Curl

The state of affairs: Second-and-8 from the Los Angeles 48-yard line, rating tied 17-17 with 6:47 to go in additional time

It appeared just like the Bears’ evening till it did not. Chicago was a few first downs away from moving into subject objective vary in additional time, and Williams had simply picked up a fourth-and-short with a sneak. It felt just like the Rams have been on the ropes. Sean McVay might need truly been frozen on the sideline. After the Bears survived on the finish of regulation, how might they lose in additional time?

After which, out of the blue, all the state of affairs modified. Johnson is not shy about getting aggressive or dialing up certainly one of his many trick performs in any state of affairs. Right here, he went again to a core idea that had labored for the Bears all through the season and ran dagger, with Rome Odunze clearing out a deep cushion and Moore anticipated to run a dig (or deep-in) route beneath within the vacated house.

I say anticipated as a result of that is not likely what occurred. Odunze ran his clear-out route, however Moore by no means actually appeared to chop and make himself out there to Williams. He drifted towards the nook, so when Williams tried to throw the dig, Moore ended up nowhere close to the route, leaving Curl in place to select off the move.

KAM CURL PICKS OFF WILLIAMS IN OT.

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After the sport, Williams confirmed that he was expecting Moore to interrupt off his route beneath the security. Solely the Bears offense is aware of precisely what play was known as and what guidelines the group has for adjusting routes, however dagger is a basic route mixture each group runs, and the route Moore ran in context with what Odunze ran shouldn’t be that. I strongly suspect this was supposed to be dagger.

It wasn’t the one time the Bears might need created an interception with route miscommunication. Within the third quarter, they lined up with Loveland cut up out huge and Luther Burden III within the slot. Loveland broke inside on a fast in. Burden ran a nook route, however Durant was capable of get depth and take the move away for a Rams interception.

NBC commentator (and former huge receiver) Cris Collinsworth speculated that there might need been a mistake right here, and I would not be shocked if he was proper. That deep nook route normally has one thing beneath to regulate the cornerback within the flat, stopping him from getting the depth to do precisely what Durant did and make that interception. Normally, that is a fast hitch route. With Durant urgent him on the snap, although, Loveland might need learn man protection and adjusted his hitch path to that in-breaker — with out realizing that the Rams have been truly in zone, releasing Durant as much as sink deeper and make the decide.

Once more, we will not say for positive, nevertheless it positive felt like two of Williams’ three interceptions weren’t on (or no less than weren’t solely on) him. The opposite decide was a fourth-down throw when the Bears would have turned the soccer over anyway if Williams had merely thrown incomplete. I am placing much less on Williams’ shoulders for these INTs than I’m on Maye, Stroud and even Allen for the turnovers of their respective performances.

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11. Stafford hits Davante Adams on the sideline

The state of affairs: First-and-10 from the Los Angeles 41-yard line, rating tied 17-17 with 5:51 to go in additional time

Williams’ game-extending TD throw to Kmet goes to dwell on for a very long time, and it ought to. It should be one of many defining moments of his profession. With out taking something away from that play, I am undecided folks understand simply how spectacular of a throw Stafford made in additional time to select up a primary down. This wasn’t his best sport, however this was a really good throw in a key second from the MVP candidate.

Stafford to Davante. What a completion!

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This is likely one of the hardest throws for NFL quarterbacks to make: a deep out from the hash to the reverse sideline. It is the best throw to misplace. Go away it too far exterior and it is uncatchable. Go away it even a tiny bit inside and it has the potential to be picked and run again the opposite manner. With an opportunistic nook in protection in Nahshon Wright, Stafford said the throw wanted to be “outside-outside.” Most quarterbacks do not have an outside-outside. A few of them do not have the arm or the arrogance to make this throw.

Kyler Gordon can be beneath in protection on Jordan Whittington within the flat, which means Stafford’s move has to (1) get sufficient loft to go over the slot nook, (2) get down rapidly sufficient to maintain Wright from having an opportunity to make a play on it, and (3) give Adams a shot at making the catch. Austin Booker even will get stress on Stafford by means of left deal with Alaric Jackson. This move basically has to enter a teacup 35.5 yards away. In some way, it does, and Adams introduced it in for a primary down.

That move was laborious. The opposite key completion in additional time was not. Going through a third-and-6 on the subsequent set of downs, Stafford should have been thrilled to see the look he acquired on the snap. The Bears confirmed Cowl 0 earlier than the snap, lining up with eight gamers on the road of scrimmage. The Rams had three wideouts to the correct aspect of the sphere, and the Bears had three defensive backs all playing off-coverage behind the road of scrimmage.

On the snap, Gordon blitzed off the road and the Bears performed Cowl 0, leaving Stafford with a simple throw. He took one step and threw a fast hitch to an uncovered Nacua. Whereas the star wideout was bringing the throw in in need of the sticks, Chicago defensive coordinator Dennis Allen was asking 32-year-old security Kevin Byard III to fly down and deal with Nacua in need of the road to achieve. Byard nonetheless has his strengths as a veteran security, however no person would really like his possibilities of protecting and tackling arguably the league’s most bodily huge receiver on a vital third down. The Rams picked up 16 yards, acquired in subject objective vary and gained the sport.

This was one other sport the place the Rams did not dominate on offense as you might need anticipated. Going through a Bears group that was turnover-or-bust for a lot of the 12 months on protection, McVay & Co. spent a lot of the evening struggling to search out solutions to fit blitzes into the backfield. McVay curiously acquired away from working the soccer, although the Rams have been averaging extra yards per play working than throwing at one level within the second half. Regardless of the Bears being down their greatest linebacker in T.J. Edwards, the Rams ran solely eight snaps with two or extra tight ends on the sphere.

It wasn’t fairly, however for the second week in a row, the Rams did simply sufficient to win. They will must do extra towards the Seahawks within the NFC Championship Sport. Los Angeles was the one group to provide the vaunted Seahawks hassle through the second half of the season, though the Rams have been finally let down by their particular groups in a 38-37 defeat. The Rams have been nice for stretches on offense within the postseason, however they’re going to should be these guys for 4 quarters (or probably 5) in Seattle to advance to the Tremendous Bowl.