There are 13 video games left in Week 10 after the Broncos beat the Raiders 10-7 on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever lined on last-minute prep.
First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat tendencies that may very well be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy soccer author Eric Moody runs by means of 5 gamers who’re rostered in below 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and may very well be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to look at, and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favourite wager for Week 10. We additionally requested our NFL Nation reporters to reply questions on fascinating QB conditions across the league.
Will cornerback Sauce Gardner be the identical participant schematically with the Colts? Is there actually fantasy upside for three Giants gamers? Can Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett make historical past in opposition to the Jets? How will the Patriots fare in Tampa Bay? And what was essentially the most fascinating tidbit from J.J. McCarthy‘s return for the Vikings?
We dig into all that, beginning with the trade deadline move that shocked the NFL.
Bounce to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Best bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat tendencies that might decide Week 10 winners
Will new Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner play press protection against Falcons large receiver Drake London?
By means of 9 weeks, Gardner has performed press protection 54% of the time, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. That is the second most by any nook with at the least 150 protection snaps (simply behind the Chiefs’ Trent McDuffie at 55%). It stays to be seen if that sample will proceed now that Gardner is on the Colts. For what it is value, Charvarius Ward had a 34% press price when he was wholesome for Indy this season, which is nicely wanting Gardner however nonetheless Eleventh-highest.
If Gardner continues to depend on the press, it’s going to arrange an fascinating matchup in opposition to London. The Falcons large receiver has the very best goal price within the league in opposition to press protection (minimal of 150 routes) at 43%. However regardless of the amount, London has not been as environment friendly in opposition to press (1.6 yards per route run) as he has been in opposition to regular or off protection (2.8).
Will the Bears’ working sport keep scorching against the Giants?
The easy reply is sure, as everybody runs nicely in opposition to New York. However the Giants look like significantly soft opponents for the Bears, who simply witnessed rookie working again Kyle Monangai rush for 176 yards in a Week 9 win over the Bengals.
New York is permitting 6.4 yards per exterior zone run to their opponents (worst within the league) and a 56% success price on exterior zone runs (additionally worst). And people numbers are worse than the Giants’ common in opposition to non-outside zone runs (5.3 and 48%, respectively). And guess who runs exterior zone on the second-highest price within the league? The Bears at 52% of the time.
Will the Chargers be capable to cease the Steelers’ go rush?
I do not see how. The Chargers rank twenty ninth in go block win price (54.6%), however on snaps with out Joe Alt — who’s now out for the season after ankle surgery — that quantity drops to the worst within the NFL (51.8%).
The Steelers, who’re third in go rush win price (48.1%), are in all probability among the many final groups the Chargers needed to immediately face after shedding Alt. Between T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, the Steelers can carry relentless warmth at edge. And who’s going to cease them? No matter mixture of Jamaree Salyer, Austin Deculus, Trevor Penning, Trey Pipkins III and Bobby Hart the Chargers give you at sort out, they don’t seem to be going to be ok with that matchup. And it isn’t like the inside could have a straightforward time with Cameron Heyward, both. All I can say to the Chargers’ offensive line is nice luck.
Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers it’s worthwhile to decide up — and might begin this week
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (43.6% rostered)
McCarthy has scored 18-plus fantasy factors in two of his three begins this season. The accuracy (57.6%) remains to be a piece in progress, however having large receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison provides him robust upside. Plus, McCarthy has added worth as a runner (16 makes an attempt for 2 touchdowns).
The Ravens have allowed the ninth-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks. With Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco on bye, McCarthy is a viable streaming choice.
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Kirk Herbstreit shares his optimism for J.J. McCarthy
Kirk Herbstreit joins “The Pat McAfee Present” and shares his confidence in J.J. McCarthy with the Vikings.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (40.0% rostered)
Johnson has scored 5 touchdowns in his previous six video games, together with at the least 10 fantasy factors in 4 of them. Since Week 6, he ranks second for New York in targets, trailing solely Wan’Dale Robinson. Johnson is a playmaker Dart can leverage and will proceed to see invaluable appears to be like close to the purpose line. He attracts a good Week 10 matchup in opposition to the Bears, who’ve allowed the third-most passing touchdowns this season (20).
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants (30.4% rostered)
With working again Cam Skattebo on injured reserve, the Giants used a two-man backfield in Week 9 with Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Singletary led in touches and scrimmage yards, dealing with many of the early-down and goal-line work. After Tracy appeared to tweak one thing late within the sport, Singletary took over practically each snap within the fourth quarter.
New York’s backfield stays a timeshare, however Singletary has the extra secure function heading into Week 10. Additionally, Chicago’s protection has allowed the ninth-most dashing yards this season.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants (27.3% rostered)
Let’s persist with one other Giants talent participant right here, as Chicago’s protection has allowed the third-most fantasy factors to large receivers. Slayton led the Giants in receiving final week with 5 receptions for 62 yards, enjoying a season-high 89% of the snaps. He’ll proceed working as the first deep menace for Dart with Malik Nabers out for the season. The matchup in opposition to Chicago makes Slayton a viable flex choice for fantasy managers.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Commanders (9.2% rostered)
Since Jayden Daniels is sidelined by a dislocated elbow, Mariota is now firmly on the streaming radar against the Lions. Detroit has allowed the Eleventh-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks, together with 18.9 to McCarthy in Week 9. Since Washington is a large underdog, Mariota may see 30-plus go makes an attempt. He additionally provides worth together with his dashing skill.
Solak: Do not be stunned if …
Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett turns into the primary NFL participant with consecutive 4-plus sack video games
There have been 131 gamers with 4 or extra sacks in a single sport, and solely three have achieved it twice in a single season. In Garrett’s last game, he sacked Patriots quarterback Drake Maye 5 instances. Coming into that sport, Maye had a sack-to-pressure price of 29% and was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks. The Jets’ Justin Fields enters this game with a sack-to-pressure price of 27%, however he’s pressured on 39% of his dropbacks. And the Jets may very well be trailing on this one, resulting in extra pass-rushing alternatives late. Historical past is within the playing cards Sunday.
Detroit places one thing further on Washington
The No. 1 seed Lions suffered one of the vital embarrassing upsets of the whole 2024 season in opposition to the Commanders, who beat them 45-31 within the divisional spherical at their residence barn. Quarterback Jared Goff acknowledged this week that there is “added motivation” heading to Washington. The Commanders’ protection is reeling, and the offense has misplaced all of its wind from final season. If the Lions are up 21 within the fourth quarter, I will not be stunned if the whole beginning offense is again on the market to make it 28.
Browns’ Harold Fannin Jr. leads all tight ends in receiving
The post-bye rookie bump is actual for offensive talent gamers, and Fannin’s function was already increasing earlier than the bye. I anticipate offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who was simply given playcalling duties, to prioritize getting Fannin the ball in house and downfield. Even with out Gardner, the Jets’ cornerbacks are higher than they’re given credit score for. This Cleveland passing assault will run by means of the tight ends, and if the Browns discover themselves trailing, Fannin may very well be in for a profession day.
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Why fantasy managers ought to select the Browns’ protection in Week 10
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why he is excessive on the Browns’ protection going into their Week 10 matchup vs. Jets.
Bowen: Key matchup to look at
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye vs. Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ blitzes
Maye’s 93.2 QBR versus the blitz is tops within the league, however he’ll face some completely different stress appears to be like from Bowles’ defensive unit. The Bucs do not blitz essentially the most within the league (31.9% price ranks ninth), however they blitz their defensive backs at a league-high 20.4%. New England’s success right here will rely on Maye’s skill to establish post-snap secondary motion and third-level stress.
Maldonado: My favourite wager for Week 10
New England Patriots +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England has led at halftime in eight of 9 video games, most within the league. The Patriots dictate tempo, convert on third down and play mistake-free soccer behind a poised younger quarterback. Tampa Bay’s offense, in the meantime, has cratered to only 27% on third downs over its previous three video games. That is the worst attainable timing in opposition to a protection permitting a league-low third-down conversion price. New England’s effectivity and construction will journey to Tampa. Patriots at +120 additionally feels proper.
NFL Nation: Quarterback questions
What are you listening to on how Daniel Jones can bounce again from last week’s loss?
One of many issues the Colts have come to like about Jones is his even-keeled nature. When the Colts acquired off to their sudden scorching begin, he by no means let up. Now, with the Colts making an attempt to rebound from a troublesome loss, the primary through which Jones and the offense have been questioned, the Colts are seeing a lot of the identical from Jones.
“He is been enjoying lights-out for us, and he was the identical man even [when] enjoying lights-out,” coach Shane Steichen mentioned. “And it should be the identical this week.” — Stephen Holder, Colts reporter
Will Washington’s offensive sport plan shift in any respect below Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelined?
Not an entire lot, contemplating they’ve related types. Each are snug working the ball and working the run-pass choice and fast sport favored by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The issue for each quarterbacks is how defenses are taking away a few of that by enjoying extra man protection currently.
However there are some variations. When Washington goes no-huddle and extra up-tempo, Mariota usually likes to go at a quicker tempo. The issue this season, nevertheless, is having a protection that may’t afford fast three-and-outs by the offense. Nonetheless, if Washington desires to play quicker, Mariota likes doing so. Additionally, Mariota is extra apt to run on a designed playcall slightly than scramble, which is what Daniels will do extra usually. — John Keim, Commanders reporter
What was essentially the most fascinating factor you heard on J.J. McCarthy‘s return in Week 9?
McCarthy is working consciously to ascertain himself as a menace exterior the pocket, whether or not on scrambles or off-schedule passes. He scored his second dashing landing of the season against the Lions and likewise tried 7 of 25 passes when exterior the pocket. He accomplished solely a type of seven, however he mentioned this week that opponents “know that I’ve that skill, so I’ve simply acquired to be prepared when these alternatives come up.” — Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter
How would you gauge Justin Fields‘ grip on the beginning job after their bye?
Most likely not a powerful grip, contemplating coach Aaron Glenn refuses to publicly affirm that Fields is certainly the starter. Fields, coming off his finest sport, is predicted to begin Sunday against the Browns. Past that, who is aware of? Two weeks in the past, Glenn was ready to go along with Tyrod Taylor, however he stayed with Fields as a result of Taylor was scratched on account of late-week knee discomfort. It is sensible to journey with Fields to get a full-season analysis earlier than they think about main quarterback choices within the offseason. — Wealthy Cimini, Jets reporter
