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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we have got you coated with what it is advisable to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the most important keys to each recreation, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. The ESPN Analysis group supplies an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection and a have a look at the playoff image. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X components, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us ultimate rating picks for each recreation. Every thing you need to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the complete Week 16 slate, together with quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on the lookout for revenge towards the Steelers, whereas the surging Eagles attempt to lock up the NFC East title versus the Commanders. All of it culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Saints and the Packers on ESPN. (Recreation occasions are Sunday except in any other case famous.)
Bounce to a matchup:
HOU-KC | PIT-BAL | NYG-ATL
DET-CHI | CLE-CIN | TEN-IND
LAR-NYJ | PHI-WSH | ARI-CAR
MIN-SEA | NE-BUF | JAX-LV
SF-MIA | TB-DAL | NO-GB
Thursday: LAC 34, DEN 27
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: KC -3.5 (41.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to look at: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks 18th in completion proportion (45%) below strain amongst starters, in accordance with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. In the meantime, the Texans’ line of defense is third in strain fee (38.2%) and second in sacks (45). If the Texans can pressure Mahomes — who’s coping with a high ankle sprain — into uncomfortable spots, Houston can place itself for an upset. — DJ Bien-Aime
Chiefs storyline to look at: The Chiefs’ protection confirmed indicators of life final week against the Browns with 5 sacks and an improved strain fee (46%) when it did not blitz. The Texans have given up 46 sacks, fifth most within the league, so Kansas Metropolis has a cause to consider it might disrupt Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs have had 11 of their 32 complete sacks come previously three weeks. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: In response to the Elias Sports activities Bureau, the 2024 Chiefs are the second group in NFL historical past to play video games on six totally different days of the week, becoming a member of the 1927 New York Yankees.
Daring prediction: Mahomes will put up a Whole QBR of below 50. There is a good likelihood his scrambling might be restricted as he offers with a excessive ankle harm, so defending Mahomes turns into fairly a bit simpler. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up the No. 1 seed within the AFC with a win and a Buffalo loss, turning into the sixth group since 2002 to clinch the highest spot with no less than two video games left within the common season. 5 of the earlier six groups reached the Tremendous Bowl, although none received. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Texans vast receiver Nico Collins. Sure, the Chiefs’ protection is hard, however it’s nonetheless weak. Simply have a look at the massive video games it has given as much as Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jakobi Meyers. Collins has averaged 19.3 fantasy factors this season. He has had just one recreation with fewer than 10 factors. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 12-2 towards the unfold (ATS) within the first half of video games this season, which is the most effective within the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Texans 24, Chiefs 21
Moody’s decide: Chiefs 21, Texans 20
Walder’s decide: Texans 23, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: KC, 57.4% (by a mean of two.8 factors)
Matchup must-reads: How Texans OT Tunsil learned from draft-day nightmare … Chiefs to activate WR Brown vs. Texans barring any setbacks … Texans clinch AFC South for second straight year
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (45.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to look at: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith in contrast the Steelers’ run recreation to an previous truck earlier this week, saying that it’d take a while to get it began, however it might put collectively some good drives. Within the two-game absence of vast receiver George Pickens, who could possibly be out once more this week, their offense grew to become extra one-dimensional and could not run the ball successfully. To clinch the AFC North title towards the league’s greatest dashing protection, the Steelers should set up the run early. — Brooke Pryor
Ravens storyline to look at: The Ravens can tie the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win, however they may want quarterback Lamar Jackson to interrupt out of his hunch towards them. In shedding 4 of his 5 begins towards Pittsburgh, he recorded profession lows in QBR (39) and completion fee (57%). The Steelers have pressured the two-time NFL MVP on 31% of his dropbacks and sacked him 22 occasions. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: For Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the run of 9 straight conferences determined by seven factors or fewer is the longest such streak by two head coaches in NFL historical past (common season or playoffs).
Daring prediction: The Ravens could have a win likelihood of over 90% at halftime. Regardless of their information, FPI views the Ravens as considerably higher, and I am inclined to consider the mannequin. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers have already made the playoffs and may clinch the AFC North title with a win, which might be their first division title since 2020. The Ravens can safe a postseason spot with a win or if the Colts and Dolphins each lose. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Ravens vast receiver Zay Flowers. Since that monster 29.7-point efficiency towards the Broncos in Week 9, Flowers has averaged simply 10.3 fantasy factors per recreation. He’s nonetheless price beginning this week. The Steelers’ protection has struggled towards exterior receivers, as Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 25 and 28 factors, respectively, last week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Final week was the primary time the Steelers misplaced as underdogs this season. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Ravens 28, Steelers 25
Moody’s decide: Ravens 27, Steelers 21
Walder’s decide: Ravens 27, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 66.8% (by a mean of 6.5 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Tomlin hopeful Watt will play against Ravens … QB Jackson’s five TDs vs. Giants sets another NFL mark
1:47
Stephen A.: The Steelers will reply the decision and defeat the Ravens
Stephen A. Smith is optimistic the Steelers will defeat Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Baltimore.
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ATL -9 (42.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to look at: Because the Giants attempt to keep away from a franchise-record tenth straight loss, vast receiver Malik Nabers has a bunch of information in sight. He is 99 yards away from being a 1,000-yard receiver and two catches from passing Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. for many receptions by a rookie in franchise historical past. Nabers, with 90 catches, has a shot at Puka Nacua‘s NFL rookie file of 105 catches. — Jordan Raanan
Falcons storyline to look at: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the eighth decide within the 2024 draft, will make his first NFL start. Coach Raheem Morris stated this week that Penix has not thrown a lot to the group’s beginning vast receivers in apply as a result of he has been the scout group quarterback behind Kirk Cousins since OTAs. However Penix skilled with Ray-Ray McCloud III within the offseason, and the 2 have developed good chemistry. — Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: Operating again Bijan Robinson is one landing away from being the primary Falcons participant with 1,000 dashing yards and 10 dashing touchdowns in a season since Devonta Freeman in 2016.
Daring prediction: Penix will file a 60-plus QBR. Dealing with the Giants, the Falcons ought to be capable to restrict the ask on him, and I feel the consequence might be an environment friendly efficiency in a win. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Falcons are one recreation again of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta presently has a 29% likelihood of creating the playoffs and a 21% likelihood of profitable the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Nabers. He has four-plus receptions in each recreation this season, the second-longest streak within the league, and 10-plus targets in 9 of these video games. The Falcons’ protection provides up the fourth-most fantasy factors per recreation to vast receivers, so beginning the Giants’ solely viable risk can be the sensible play. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-8 ATS of their previous 9 video games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 video games. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Falcons 28, Giants 14
Moody’s decide: Falcons 28, Giants 17
Walder’s decide: Falcons 24, Giants 16
FPI prediction: ATL, 62.9% (by a mean of 5.1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Giants turn back to Lock as starting QB vs. Falcons … Falcons’ Cousins: Told Penix ‘I’d be in his corner’ … Giants’ Daboll and Schoen: Stay or go?
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to look at: Detroit has been bitten by the harm bug with a league-high 21 gamers presently on the injured reserve listing, together with working again David Montgomery, who sustained a torn MCL within the loss to the Payments. With out Montgomery, coach Dan Campbell is assured in Jahmyr Gibbs‘ capability because the Lions’ “lead horse.” Gibbs stated his on-field mindset will not change. “I have been doing this my entire life, so I do not have a look at it any totally different,” he stated. — Eric Woodyard
Bears storyline to look at: Chicago’s eight straight losses are taking a toll on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. “Dropping is a kind of issues that actually impacts me,” Williams stated. “It is powerful.” The Bears have their second straight NFC North matchup, coming off a loss to Minnesota through which they transformed just one third-down alternative. Williams has the third-worst off-target proportion (21.4) this season and a 51 QBR towards man protection, which Detroit performs on the highest fee within the league (56%). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears’ eight straight losses are tied for the second-longest shedding streak in franchise historical past and their longest since shedding 14 consecutive video games in 2022-23.
0:56
Schefter to McAfee: David Montgomery could possibly be misplaced for season
Adam Schefter updates Pat McAfee on David Montgomery’s MCL harm and the way lengthy he could possibly be out for the Lions.
Daring prediction: The Lions’ protection — sure, even with all of the accidents — will bounce again and quit 15 or fewer factors to the Bears. There’s actual cause for concern for the Lions’ protection when it faces offense, because it did towards the Payments final week. The Bears should not that. — Walder
What’s at stake: With a win, the Lions’ probabilities on the No.1 seed within the NFC enhance to 65%, per ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall to 26%. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Gibbs. He has averaged 16.1 touches per recreation, and the Lions rely closely on their working backs, backed by an offensive line that ranks Thirteenth in run block win fee (71.6%). Plus, the Bears’ protection provides up the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS of their previous 5 as house underdogs. They’ve coated in three in a row. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Lions 34, Bears 24
Moody’s decide: Lions 30, Bears 24
Walder’s decide: Lions 34, Bears 13
FPI prediction: DET, 71.9% (by a mean of 8.8 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Campbell takes blame for loss vs. Bills … Losing ‘really affects me,’ says Bears QB Williams … DE Hutchinson on track for Super Bowl return … Coach Thomas Brown defends Bears’ effort during skid
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -7.5 (46.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to look at: At quarterback, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-round decide who will make his fourth profession begin Sunday. His mobility ought to open some issues within the run recreation, however, just like the not too long ago benched Jameis Winston, he should take higher care of the ball. Thompson-Robinson has thrown seven interceptions to just one landing already. — Daniel Oyefusi
Bengals storyline to look at: Browns defensive finish Myles Garrett has sacked quarterback Joe Burrow 9 occasions, probably the most of any opponent in Burrow’s profession. Cincinnati is attempting to clean Garrett’s sack depend towards Burrow for the primary time in 5 seasons. Getting Cody Ford (flu) again might be huge for an offensive line nonetheless with out Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula). — Ben Child
Stat to know: Burrow has a 72 QBR in each Bengals loss this season. That is the second-best mark for the reason that metric was first calculated in 2006 (Ben Roethlisberger had a 76 QBR in six losses in 2018).
Daring prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will file no less than 2.5 sacks and reemerge as a defensive participant of the 12 months candidate. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t taken sacks at excessive fee in his profession, however the pattern is restricted and I anticipate the Bengals to be forward, which ends up in extra sacks. — Walder
What’s at stake: Any likelihood for the Bengals to make the postseason rides on this recreation. They are going to be eradicated from playoff competition with a loss to the Browns, and so they presently maintain the ninth-best odds at 6%, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Browns working again Jerome Ford. With out Nick Chubb (foot), Ford ought to lead the Browns’ committee for the remainder of the season. Count on him to get loads of touches, even when the Bengals get out forward early. He has been the first again on passing downs all season, so he’ll keep concerned irrespective of the rating. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS of their previous three, 1-5 ATS of their previous six and 3-9 ATS of their previous 12. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Bengals 30, Browns 13
Moody’s decide: Bengals 31, Browns 14
Walder’s decide: Bengals 27, Browns 13
FPI prediction: CIN, 67.3% (by a mean of 6.8 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Winston; Thompson-Robinson to start vs. Bengals … Bengals RB Brown staking claim as featured running back … South Florida route-running culture embedded in Cleveland
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3.5 (42.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to look at: Calvin Ridley wants 221 receiving yards to achieve the 1,000-yard mark. He did not register a reception within the first meeting with the Colts regardless of being focused eight occasions by then-starter Will Levis. Mason Rudolph would be the quarterback this time, which is sweet information for Ridley as his season-high 143 receiving yards got here with Rudolph throwing to him against the Lions. — Turron Davenport
Colts storyline to look at: The Colts enter this week ranked twenty eighth in yards allowed per recreation (366.1), their lowest mark since 2017 once they completed 4-12. Someway, they’ve ranked higher in scoring protection at twenty first with 23.5 factors per recreation. However an underrated byproduct has been Indianapolis having the NFL’s lowest time of possession at 26 minutes, 41 seconds per recreation. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Titans working again Tony Pollard wants 85 scrimmage yards to achieve 1,300 for the third straight season. He would be a part of Derrick Henry as the one gamers to achieve that mark in every of the previous three seasons.
Daring prediction: Colts vast receiver Adonai Mitchell will catch a 30-plus-air-yard cross. He has been focused on 5 such throws this season and has zero receptions, however I am satisfied the connection goes to occur this weekend. ESPN’s open score loves Mitchell, giving him an 83 within the class. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts have been eradicated from playoff competition after the Chargers defeated the Broncos on Thursday night. However the Titans nonetheless have one thing on the road, as their present 39% likelihood at a top-five decide will enhance with a win, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He struggled as a passer last week, finishing simply 44.7% of makes an attempt, however he rushed for 46 yards and a landing. This week, he faces a Titans protection giving up the Eleventh-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks and giving up the eighth-most dashing yards. Count on him to take benefit. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season. Six straight Titans street video games have gone over the entire. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Colts 21, Titans 12
Moody’s decide: Colts 24, Titans 13
Walder’s decide: Colts 17, Titans 9
FPI prediction: IND, 49.9% (by a mean of 0.1 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Benched Levis: Still believe I can be Titans’ franchise QB … Butker, Bates and the life of an NFL kicker … Colts are good on first drives, but then fall apart
1:02
Is the Colts protection price choosing up in Week 16?
With a positive schedule, Tristan H. Cockcroft likes the Colts’ protection in fantasy the remainder of the season.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -3 (46.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to look at: That is the 18th time beginning quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers will face one another, which might be tied for the fifth most amongst beginning quarterbacks within the Tremendous Bowl period (together with playoffs), in accordance with ESPN Analysis. Rodgers has received 13 of them, however Stafford may need the higher hand this time for the reason that Jets have received solely twice of their previous 11 video games. — Sarah Barshop
Jets storyline to look at: Rodgers wants two landing passes to develop into solely the fifth participant in NFL historical past to hit the five hundred mark. He is taking part in his greatest ball of the 12 months, having thrown for 628 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions previously two video games. The offense has produced 58 factors and 802 yards, that are its most in back-to-back video games this season. — Wealthy Cimini
Stat to know: The Rams wish to develop into the primary group in NFL historical past to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after being three video games below .500 sooner or later within the 12 months.
Daring prediction: Rams rookie Jared Verse will file no less than a 25% cross rush win fee and a sack towards Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. The offensive deal with’s 87% cross block win fee is best than what Tyron Smith posted earlier than his injury, however it’s nonetheless under common. Verse is something however common, and Sunday’s recreation might bolster his probabilities at Defensive Rookie of the 12 months. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams presently have a 54% likelihood to make playoffs and a 53% likelihood to win NFC West, per ESPN Analytics. These probabilities enhance to 65% and 64%, respectively, with a win. They usually fall to 43% and 42%, respectively, with a loss. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Rodgers. He got here alive on Sunday towards the Jaguars, dropping a season-high 30 fantasy factors. That is not shocking since Jacksonville has given up probably the most factors to quarterbacks this season. He is arrange for one more huge recreation with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as his high receivers as a result of the Rams’ protection provides up the Thirteenth-most passing yards per recreation (218.1). See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 1-5 ATS towards groups with profitable information this season. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Rams 28, Jets 20
Moody’s decide: Rams 28, Jets 24
Walder’s decide: Rams 24, Jets 19
FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by a mean of 0.5 factors)
Matchup must-reads: McVay galvanizes Rams to three-game win stretch … The real Rodgers saving his best for last with Jets … Wilson tries to clear air after sideline outburst
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (45.5 O/U)
Eagles storyline to look at: The Eagles’ cross recreation awoke against the Steelers after a number of quiet video games, with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards and a pair of scores. Vast receiver A.J. Brown was focused a season-high 11 occasions and completed with eight catches for 110 yards. Good issues occur when Hurts goes Brown’s method, because the duo tops the NFL in yards per try (12.1). — Tim McManus
Commanders storyline to look at: Within the first assembly in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win, Commanders main receiver Terry McLaurin was focused a season-low two occasions. Philadelphia typically bracketed him within the pink zone, and it did not assist that he ran 22 of his 25 routes from the left aspect. However, previously three video games, Washington has moved him round extra — 40 routes run from the left aspect and 22 on the suitable. Extra importantly, he has greater than 9 targets on each side throughout this stretch. — John Keim
Stat to know: Hurts has 14 dashing touchdowns, which is probably the most within the NFL and tied for the third most by a quarterback by way of a season in NFL historical past. He had 15 in 2023, which Josh Allen matched in the identical 12 months for the second-most ever.
Daring prediction: McLaurin will file below 35 receiving yards. I am totally shopping for the Eagles’ secondary, and he’s far and away an important Commanders goal for a protection to attempt to cease. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can lock up the NFC East title with a win. If the Commanders win, they want the Falcons to lose, in addition to losses by both the Rams or Seahawks, to make the postseason. Read more.
Accidents: Eagles | Commanders
Fantasy X issue: Eagles working again Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ defensive entrance ranks twenty fourth in run cease win fee (29.1%), whereas the Eagles’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win fee (72.9%). Washington additionally provides up the sixth-most dashing yards per recreation to working backs and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 10-3-1 ATS within the first quarter this season, which is the most effective within the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Eagles 28, Commanders 27
Moody’s decide: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
Walder’s decide: Eagles 24, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 58.8% (by a mean of three.3 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Eagles revive passing game as QB Hurts deals with broken finger … Bill provision may aid Commanders return to D.C. … Wives of Commanders kickers go into labor at same time
2:19
Can fantasy managers belief DeVonta Smith vs. the Commanders?
Mike Clay and Discipline Yates focus on why fantasy managers can begin DeVonta Smith with confidence in Week 16.
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -5 (47.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to look at: The Panthers’ struggles throwing the ball this season will give the Cardinals a primary alternative to proceed their march towards a playoff spot. Their protection is giving up 217 passing yards per recreation and 6.94 passing yards per play and can line up throughout an offense that’s among the many worst passing groups within the NFL, averaging 186 yards per recreation (twenty ninth) and 5.69 yards per play (twenty eighth). — Josh Weinfuss
Panthers storyline to look at: Carolina in all probability might be with out considered one of its greatest remaining defensive linemen (A’Shawn Robinson, knee) on a unit that already ranks final within the NFL towards the run (giving up 173 yards per recreation). It additionally misplaced two extra linebackers to IR (Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus). That is not excellent news while you’re dealing with the league’s seventh-best run offense, averaging 141 yards, and an elusive quarterback in Kyler Murray. — David Newton
Stat to know: With a loss, the Panthers would clinch 5 or fewer wins for the fifth time previously six seasons. Earlier than 2019, the franchise had solely three seasons with 5 or fewer wins since they performed their first NFL season in 1995.
Daring prediction: The Cardinals will rating 35-plus factors. It is being slept on as to simply how good Murray has been this season. He ranks fourth in QBR (68.4) with out an distinctive offensive line or vast receiver room. And this week, he will get to indicate off towards a Carolina protection that is thirty first in EPA (anticipated factors added) allowed per play and thirtieth in EPA allowed per dropback. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Cardinals are a recreation again of the Rams and Seahawks for first place within the NFC West. Arizona enters Sunday with a 14% likelihood to win the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.
Accidents: Cardinals | Panthers
Fantasy X issue: Cardinals working again James Conner. He has averaged 18.4 touches per recreation and exploded for a season-high 30.8 fantasy factors in Week 14. Now, he faces a Panthers protection that offers up probably the most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs. Count on one other huge recreation. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers have coated 5 straight video games as underdogs. They’re 5-1 ATS of their previous six video games total. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21
Moody’s decide: Cardinals 30, Panthers 20
Walder’s decide: Cardinals 37, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: ARI, 74.6% (by a mean of 9.7 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals safety Baker lands 3-year extension … Sunday’s loss to Cowboys a microcosm of Panthers’ issues
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -3 (42.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to look at: The Vikings have struggled to win in Seattle, a pattern that features generations of gamers, coaches, entrance places of work and possession teams. They’ve misplaced their previous 5 video games there and have received solely twice in 11 video games over the previous six many years. On paper, this season’s matchup favors the Vikings since their protection is tied for the NFL’s fourth-most sacks (42). The Seahawks have given up the league’s third-most sacks (47). — Kevin Seifert
Seahawks storyline to look at: Underneath defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are blitzing on a league-high 39% of opponents’ dropbacks. Geno Smith has the ninth-best QBR (80.6) towards the blitz, however will he have his common capability to evade rushers and lengthen performs Sunday? Smith could not end Seattle’s loss to Inexperienced Bay due to a proper knee harm, although he plans to play towards Minnesota. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-5 at house this season. A loss would mark their most house losses in a season since 2008, once they completed 2-6.
2:31
Why Stephen A. is tabbing Sam Darnold as Vikings’ future QB
Stephen A. Smith and Shannon Sharpe debate whether or not Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is the longer term starter over J.J. McCarthy.
Daring prediction: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will throw no less than two interceptions. Although the Vikings beat the Bears simply last week, Darnold struggled at occasions with accuracy and posted a negative-4% completion proportion over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: Although the Vikings have clinched a playoff spot, the Seahawks presently maintain a 36.2% likelihood to make the postseason, per ESPN Analytics. Seattle’s odds enhance to 54.6% with a win and reduce to 23.3% with a loss. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Seahawks vast receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has been on fireplace since Seattle’s bye week, recording 18 or extra fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5 video games. He faces a Vikings protection that has given up probably the most receiving yards per recreation to vast receivers. Count on Smith-Njigba to remain closely concerned and ship one other robust efficiency. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS towards groups with profitable information this season. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17
Moody’s decide: Vikings 24, Seahawks 13
Walder’s decide: Seahawks 26, Vikings 20
FPI prediction: MIN, 58.9% (by a mean of three.2 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Jefferson, Vikings pay tribute to Randy Moss amid cancer fight … Geno ‘better,’ plans to play despite knee injury
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -14 (46.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to look at: The previous two occasions the Patriots and Payments have performed in Buffalo, the opening kickoff has been returned for a landing, which has by no means occurred between the identical groups on the identical venue in back-to-back seasons. This will even be the coldest recreation for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures within the teenagers. “I am excited to put on lengthy sleeves for the primary time and embrace it,” he stated. — Mike Reiss
Payments storyline to look at: The Payments’ offense has an opportunity to develop into the primary group to attain 30-plus factors in 9 straight video games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 factors per recreation this season (tenth worst). New England’s greatest job might be slowing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who can also develop into the primary quarterback previously 90 years to file a number of dashing touchdowns in three consecutive video games, per Elias Sports activities Bureau. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Maye has a passing landing in six consecutive video games coming into Sunday. Yet another would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise historical past.
Daring prediction: Payments edge Von Miller will file no less than one sack. He has just one sack since getting back from suspension in Week 9, however he truly boasts a 25% cross rush win fee at edge in that span, which is third greatest on the place. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Payments are in a struggle with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo’s probabilities enhance to 25% with a win and fall to three.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the opposite finish, the Patriots’ odds on the No. 1 decide climb to 30% with a loss. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Payments vast receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been focused typically by Allen, with seven or extra targets in eight video games and two with 10 or extra. Shakir has scored 16 or extra fantasy factors in consecutive video games. He ought to do nicely towards the Patriots’ protection, particularly from the slot. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs just one different time previously 30 seasons — 2023 towards the Payments, once they misplaced by six. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Payments 33, Patriots 17
Moody’s decide: Payments 41, Patriots 13
Walder’s decide: Payments 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by a mean of 13.9 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Mayo ‘didn’t mean anything’ with playcalling remark … Allen reaches new heights at QB, keeps Bills rolling
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -1.5 (40.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to look at: Jacksonville has actually struggled stopping the massive play. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 89 explosive performs (rushes of 15 or extra yards and receptions of 30 or extra yards). They’ve additionally given up 16 touchdowns on these performs, which is tied with Cleveland for probably the most. That is matchup for the Raiders, who rank twenty second within the NFL with 44 offensive performs of 20 or extra yards. — Michael DiRocco
Raiders storyline to look at: With solely six catches within the Raiders’ previous two video games, Brock Bowers has fallen to fourth within the NFL with 90 receptions (he was main the league two weeks in the past). Regardless of the group’s quarterback points, he wants 32 extra yards to be the third rookie tight finish to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in NFL historical past, becoming a member of Mike Ditka (1,076) and Kyle Pitts (1,026). He’ll face a Jaguars group that has the worst cross protection within the league (264.3 yards per recreation). — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: If the Raiders lose out of their ultimate three video games, they may tie their longest shedding streak in franchise historical past (13 straight in 1962). After this week, they face the Saints and Chargers to finish the season.
Daring prediction: The Jaguars’ offensive line will put up its strongest cross block win fee of the season (75%). Going towards the Raiders with out Maxx Crosby (ankle) and Christian Wilkins (foot) ought to arrange the unit for a clean day and provides quarterback Mac Jones loads of time to make his reads. — Walder
What’s at stake: This matchup can drastically enhance or damage each groups’ probabilities on the No.1 decide (unbiased of different outcomes). The Raiders’ odds on the choice enhance to 30% with a loss and reduce to 2% with a win, per ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars’ probabilities climb to 11% with a loss and fall to lower than 1% with a win. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Jaguars tight finish Brenton Strange. Evan Engram (shoulder) is out for the season, which implies Unusual takes over as Jacksonville’s beginning tight finish. He regarded strong earlier this 12 months when filling in for Engram. He now faces a Raiders protection that offers up the fourth-most fantasy factors to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-1 outright as favorites this season (misplaced 36-22 to the Panthers in Week 3). They’re 3-1 ATS as favorites below coach Antonio Pierce. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Jaguars 17, Raiders 15
Moody’s decide: Jaguars 21, Raiders 13
Walder’s decide: Jaguars 26, Raiders 19
FPI prediction: LV, 56.5% (by a mean of two.4 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Lawrence, Engram have shoulder surgery … Eerie mood looms over Raiders as Pierce’s job status is questioned
0:37
Why Brian Thomas Jr.’s huge day vs. the Jets was so spectacular
Liz Loza breaks down the massive outing by Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr., who notched the most effective fantasy recreation vs. the Jets’ protection during the last three seasons.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (44.5 O/U)
49ers storyline to look at: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging 12 yards per reception this season, which is on tempo for the third-lowest complete of his profession. Enhancing on that mark might show troublesome towards a Niners protection that has been stingy with huge performs within the second a part of the season. Since Week 8, San Francisco has given up solely 10 cross performs of 20-plus yards (fewest within the NFL) and is giving up 9.3 yards per reception (second lowest) in that span. — Nick Wagoner
Dolphins storyline to look at: With Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) uncertain to play Sunday, the 49ers are introduced with a troublesome matchup towards one of many NFL’s high run defenses. The Dolphins have allowed solely considered one of their previous eight opponents to crack 100 dashing yards (the Packers in Week 13). The truth is, Miami has given up an NFL-best 83.3 dashing yards per recreation since shedding to Inexperienced Bay. San Francisco may need to rely extra on quarterback Brock Purdy, whose breakout recreation got here towards the Dolphins in 2022. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fourth-most passing touchdowns (13) and third-most passing yards (1,704) within the NFL since getting back from a concussion in Week 10.
Daring prediction: 49ers tight finish George Kittle will file 5-plus catches for 90-plus receiving yards. No group provides up the next proportion of opponent targets to tight ends than Miami at 23%. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins might be eradicated from playoff competition with a loss after the Chargers’ Thursday night win. The 49ers will miss the postseason with a loss or be eradicated by seven different eventualities involving wins by different NFC groups. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: 49ers working again Patrick Taylor Jr. If Guerendo is out, the door opens for Taylor to steer the backfield. He scored 9 fantasy factors in Week 14 after Guerendo went down. The Dolphins have accomplished nicely towards quarterbacks, no less than in fantasy, so this could possibly be a recreation through which San Francisco leans on its floor assault. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: 5 straight Dolphins house video games have gone over the entire. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: 49ers 22, Dolphins 20
Moody’s decide: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21
Walder’s decide: 49ers 30, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: SF, 54.4% (by a mean of 1.5 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Source: 49ers RB Guerendo likely out against Dolphins … Dolphins’ DuBose to return home after hospital stay … Greenlaw’s return highlighted why the 49ers need to keep him
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -4.5 (48.5 O/U)
Buccaneers storyline to look at: Contemplating what the Bucs did as an offense in a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, the timing on this could not be higher. The Bucs’ run recreation has dramatically improved from final within the league final season to now fourth total (144.4 yards per recreation). The Cowboys are giving up 136.1 dashing yards per recreation (fourth worst within the league) and have surrendered 43 complete touchdowns as a protection (third most within the league). — Jenna Laine
Cowboys storyline to look at: If the Cowboys lose, it could be their seventh lack of the season at AT&T Stadium, their most since 2015. Additionally they have an opportunity to match the franchise file for many house losses in a season (0-8 in 1989). All of this has come after they received 16 straight regular-season video games at house from 2022 to 2023. To keep away from a loss, the protection should decelerate the No. 4 scoring offense within the league (28.8 factors per recreation). — Todd Archer
Stat to know: A loss for the Cowboys would clinch their first shedding season since coach Mike McCarthy went 6-10 in his first 12 months in 2020. They have not had a number of shedding seasons below a single head coach since going 5-11 in three straight seasons from 2000 to 2002 with Dave Campo.
Daring prediction: Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean will quit not more than 40 receiving yards as the closest defender, though he’ll presumably see no less than a few of vast receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 10, Dean has given up simply 0.7 yards per protection snap, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — much better than the 1.2 common for out of doors corners. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Buccaneers’ probabilities to win the NFC South enhance to 93% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Cowboys can be eradicated from playoff competition with a loss or a Washington win. Read more.
1:41
Is Bucs WR Jalen McMillan on the flex radar for fantasy managers?
Mike Clay and Discipline Yates focus on whether or not Buccaneers vast receiver Jalen McMillan must be on the flex place radar in Week 16.
Accidents: Buccaneers | Cowboys
Fantasy X issue: Buccaneers vast receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 36.5 fantasy factors mixed in his first eight video games after which 40.4 previously two. Apparently, he and Mike Evans ran the identical variety of routes in that span, with Evans barely main in targets. The Cowboys’ protection provides up the sixth-most receiving yards per recreation to vast receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as house underdogs this season. They’re 1-6 outright and ATS total at house. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20
Moody’s decide: Buccaneers 35, Cowboys 21
Walder’s decide: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 19
FPI prediction: TB, 70.0% (by a mean of seven.5 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Rookies stepping up at right time for surging Buccaneers … What does the Cowboys’ 2025 salary cap really look like? … NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, biggest hurdles
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: GB -14 (42.5 O/U)
Saints storyline to look at: The Saints have performed solely 18 video games at 32 levels or under at kickoff. They’ve received the previous three, together with a recreation against the Browns in 2022 when it was 6 levels. However New Orleans would not have Taysom Hill (knee), the main rusher from that final win, and won’t have Alvin Kamara, who’s coping with a groin harm. The Saints additionally might begin rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler since Derek Carr has been out due to a fractured hand. — Katherine Terrell
Packers storyline to look at: It is a small pattern dimension, however Packers quarterback Jordan Love has proven no points relating to taking part in in cold-weather video games. He is 2-0 as Inexperienced Bay’s starter when the temperature is 32 levels or decrease, which helps because it could possibly be snowing Monday. In relation to late-season contests total, coach Matt LaFleur additionally has the most effective December/January file (23-5) within the NFL since 2019. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers are averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception this season (third within the NFL). The Saints’ protection is giving up 6.2 yards after catch per reception this season (third highest within the NFL).
Daring prediction: Saints linebacker Demario Davis will lead the NFL in tackles in Week 16. The Saints are heavy underdogs to the Packers, which implies Inexperienced Bay in all probability might be out in entrance and working the ball a lot. Davis has recorded a deal with on 21% of run performs he is on the sector for this season, which leads Saints linebackers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Packers can safe their spot because the third NFC North group within the playoffs by way of a number of eventualities. The best path is by profitable Sunday. In any other case, Inexperienced Bay will want a Falcons loss to pair with both a loss by the Rams or the Seahawks. Read more.
Fantasy X issue: Packers working again Josh Jacobs. Inexperienced Bay is a double-digit favourite, organising Jacobs for an enormous workload. He has had 18-plus touches and 21-plus fantasy factors in 5 straight video games. The Saints’ protection provides up 23.7 fantasy factors per recreation to working backs, making him a powerful play this week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time previously 19 seasons (plus-11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, once they received 9-0). They haven’t been no less than 13-point underdogs since 2005. Read more.
Kahler’s decide: Packers 30, Saints 17
Moody’s decide: Packers 28, Saints 16
Walder’s decide: Packers 27, Saints 10
FPI prediction: GB, 83.5% (by a mean of 14.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire joins Saints after being cut by Chiefs … Cooper, Doubs key to Packers’ win over Seattle … Saints bench Haener, go back to Rattler in loss
