The Seahawks and Patriots are headed to Super Bowl LX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
With two weeks till the massive sport, we’re taking an early have a look at the matchup. Lindsey Thiry units it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Mike Reiss and Brady Henderson choose causes for hope and concern for each groups. Seth Walder offers you some key stats, Matt Bowen picks a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X issue. Aaron Schatz solutions large questions surrounding the ultimate sport of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup. And at last, we now have early gut-reaction predictions from our consultants.
Does the Patriots’ secondary stand an opportunity towards Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Will New England’s Drake Maye grow to be the fifth quarterback to win a Tremendous Bowl of their second NFL season? This is every thing it’s essential know.
Bounce to a bit:
Seahawks | Patriots | Key stats
Matchup keys | Big questions
Overreaction | Quarterbacks
Betting | Predictions
Tremendous Bowl LX: Seahawks vs. Patriots
When: Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC
The place: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | Tickets
Opening line: SEA -3.5 (O/U 46.5)
ESPN’s Football Power Index: SEA, 60.2% (by 3.6 factors)
Endlessly ingrained in Seahawks and Patriots lore is cornerback Malcolm Butler‘s interception on the 1-yard line to safe a 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX on the finish of the 2014 season. This upcoming contest marks the ninth time there was a Tremendous Bowl rematch. New England has been concerned in 4 of these matchups, essentially the most by any workforce. For the Patriots, it is a return to the Tremendous Bowl after a six-year absence following the tip of the Invoice Belichick-Tom Brady dynasty. And for the Seahawks, it will likely be their fourth look.
Tucked away within the Pacific Northwest, coach Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks quietly constructed on their 10-7 report in MacDonald’s first season, successful the NFC West and incomes the No. 1 seed in 12 months 2. In his first season in Seattle, quarterback Sam Darnold joined Tom Brady as the one quarterbacks to place collectively back-to-back 14-win seasons. Boasting the highest scoring protection (17.2 factors allowed per sport), the Seahawks additionally obtained a midseason increase with the acquisition of huge receiver Rashid Shaheed. His standout play as a return specialist offered sparks in a number of key wins.
In his first season as New England’s head coach, Mike Vrabel orchestrated a turnaround that took a 4-13 workforce to the Patriots’ first division title since successful 11 straight from 2009 to 2019. They’re the sixth workforce to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl after having 5 or fewer wins within the earlier season. The final workforce to win a Tremendous Bowl on this state of affairs was the 2001 Patriots — Brady’s first season because the beginning QB. After a 1-2 begin in 2025, the Patriots received 13 of their subsequent 14 video games behind a top-five scoring offense and protection. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye led the NFL in Complete QBR (77.1) this season. — Thiry
Common season: 14-3 | NFC seed: No. 1
Purpose for hope: Protection wins championships, and the Seahawks have an elite one. Mike Macdonald’s unit allowed the fewest factors within the NFL within the common season at 16.4 per sport, after which it turned it up a notch within the divisional spherical towards the 49ers. Seattle held San Francisco to a pair of discipline targets, bought three takeaways and compelled three extra turnovers on downs. The Seahawks have now gone 27 straight video games with out permitting a 100-yard rusher regardless of dealing with Christian McCaffrey twice, Kyren Williams twice, Bijan Robinson as soon as and Jonathan Taylor as soon as over the previous two months.
Purpose for concern: Turnovers. Solely Minnesota dedicated greater than Seattle’s 28 throughout the common season. Sam Darnold made the Professional Bowl regardless of main all gamers with 20 turnovers, although he did not give the ball away within the Seahawks’ previous three video games. Darnold can also be taking part in by an indirect harm, and Seattle’s offense simply misplaced one among its most dependable gamers — working again Zach Charbonnet — to an ACL tear. — Henderson
Common season: 14-3 | AFC seed: No. 2
Purpose for hope: Quarterback Drake Maye. His knack for making performs along with his arm and legs is exclusive, as is his pinpoint accuracy on deep passes — even when he is escaping the pocket. Within the common season, he led the NFL in completion share (72%), passer ranking (113.5) and yards per try (8.93). Maye’s 37-yard run within the wild-card round set a franchise report, and he had a 28-yarder to arrange the Patriots’ go-ahead discipline objective within the AFC title game. Paired with a protection that has confirmed it will probably play at a excessive stage within the postseason, it is a doubtlessly harmful mixture.
Purpose for concern: Turnovers — similar because the Seahawks. Maye fumbled six instances within the Patriots’ first two playoff matchups (shedding three of them), and he additionally had a tipped-ball interception towards the Chargers. So, the Patriots have been residing dangerously at instances with ball safety. Youth can also be a consideration. Along with 4 undrafted free brokers, the Patriots have all 11 draft picks from 2025 on their roster. The Tremendous Bowl is a giant stage for rookies. — Reiss
Stats to know
Each quantity tells the identical story towards the Seahawks’ protection: You can’t run on it. Opponent success fee on designed runs towards Seattle is simply 34%, the bottom within the NFL. Its EPA per play on these performs is minus-0.15, additionally the bottom. And opponents have managed minus-34 first downs over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, when speeding towards Seattle. That is by far the bottom within the league (subsequent closest is the Texans at minus-14).
0:16
Seahawks get vital fourth-down cease in crimson zone
Devon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s cross to Terrance Ferguson ultimately zone on fourth down.
The Patriots are one of the best workforce in crucial a part of soccer: passing offense (0.23 EPA per play). Additionally they have the biggest hole between their EPA per play on designed passes versus designed runs (0.28 distinction), so it is important that they put the ball in Maye’s fingers as a lot as doable within the Tremendous Bowl. And so they’ve achieved that up thus far with the second-highest cross fee over anticipated (plus-4%) within the NFL, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder
Contained in the matchup
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. the Patriots’ quarters protection
The Patriots performed quarters protection (4 deep, three underneath) on 19.5% of opponent dropbacks throughout the playoffs. Right here, the Seahawks can scheme for Smith-Njigba out of slot alignments to create vertical matchups versus New England safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson. Smith-Njigba caught 24 passes for 335 yards out of the slot this season. That is the place coordinator Klint Kubiak can arrange his shot performs for Darnold. — Bowen
Seahawks’ X issue: Rashid Shaheed, WR
Shaheed brings a singular talent set to the Seahawks’ offense. He is explosive and able to scoring each time he touches the ball as a receiver, as a runner or on particular groups. That means was on show within the NFC Championship Recreation, when he hauled in a 51-yard reception. With huge receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and working again Kenneth Walker III anticipated to command vital consideration from New England, Shaheed could possibly be in favorable matchups on the league’s largest stage.
Patriots’ X issue: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Stevenson has emerged as an under-the-radar star for the Patriots. After a tough begin to the season marked by fumbling points, he was given the chance to show issues round following Antonio Gibson‘s season-ending harm and has delivered since Week 6 whereas taking part in alongside rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Working behind an inconsistent Patriots offensive line, Stevenson has nonetheless been productive, totaling 58 touches and 280 yards in three postseason video games. Vrabel trusts Stevenson, and the working again is predicted to be leaned on closely by the Patriots within the Tremendous Bowl. — Moody
Answering large questions
Did Sam Darnold present main enhancements this season, or was he once more carried by a robust protection?
The reply is each. Darnold confirmed main enhancements within the first half of the common season after which regressed considerably because the Seahawks’ protection bought even higher. Remarkably, he completed the 2025 common season with a decrease QBR (56.0) than he had final season in Minnesota (57.3). Though he had the next completion fee and was sacked fewer instances, he additionally had extra interceptions and fewer touchdowns.
And have a look at how Darnold’s stats are cut up this season: In Weeks 1-9, Darnold had a 77.9 QBR. At that time, he was second within the NFL behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. For Weeks 10-18, Darnold had a 37.4 QBR, which ranked twenty sixth. Each a part of Darnold’s efficiency declined within the second half of the season.
Did the Patriots have the best path ever to the Tremendous Bowl by energy of schedule?
Based mostly on my DVOA scores, the Patriots had the third-easiest regular-season schedule since 1978. Their common opponent had a minus-13.3% DVOA. In different phrases, their common opponent was about nearly as good as Washington or Miami in 2025.
Nevertheless, the 2 groups with simpler schedules by common DVOA of opponents additionally made it to the Tremendous Bowl. The 1991 Payments had the best schedule by DVOA (minus-14.8%), adopted by the 1999 Rams (minus-14.5%).
We even have to contemplate the opponents these groups confronted within the playoffs. The Patriots began out with the Chargers, who ranked seventeenth in DVOA. Houston was fourth and Denver was seventh.
Nevertheless, the 1991 Payments and 1999 Rams had simpler playoff roads as a result of they began out towards no one. (First-round byes are so much simpler than dealing with a mean workforce such because the Chargers.) The 1991 Payments confronted the Chiefs (fifth) after which the Broncos (fifteenth). The 1999 Rams had it a little bit more durable, dealing with the Vikings (sixth) and the Buccaneers (tenth).
The Patriots arguably had a better path due to circumstances. For instance, they beat the Broncos’ backup quarterback and performed the Texans with out huge receiver Nico Collins. However the Rams additionally confronted Tampa Bay’s backup quarterback within the NFC Championship Recreation.
It is value noting two groups earlier than DVOA scores started: the 1970 Baltimore Colts and the 1972 Miami Dolphins. They confronted the best regular-season schedules based mostly on their opponents’ win-loss report. Baltimore’s opponents had been at .352, Miami’s opponents at .357 and the 1999 Rams’ opponents at .363. This 12 months’s Patriots opponents are at .429. — Schatz
0:32
Drake Maye seals the AFC Championship with gutsy scramble
Drake Maye retains it for an important first-down conversion to seal a win over the Broncos and ship the Patriots to Tremendous Bowl LX.
Judging one overreaction: Darnold will get an enormous contract extension this offseason
Sure, overreaction. To begin with, the Seahawks need not give Darnold an extension. He’s signed by 2027 with no assured cash left on his deal past what they’ve already paid him. Darnold made $37.5 million this season, within the first 12 months of the three-year, $100.5 million deal he signed with the Seahawks in March. Now, Seattle has to determine by 5 days after the Tremendous Bowl whether or not it needs to pay his $15 million 2026 roster bonus. As a result of the Seahawks are taking part in within the Tremendous Bowl, it is most likely truthful to anticipate them to select up that bonus, and he’ll make a further $12.5 million in wage in 2026.
The purpose right here is in regards to the Seahawks and the way in which they view the quarterback place. They traded Russell Wilson once they knew he was going to get one other top-of-market extension, and so they did not consider he was nonetheless the kind of participant who deserved that. They traded Geno Smith when he rebuffed their makes an attempt at a contract extension. And pivoting to Darnold has labored. The picks the Seahawks bought for Wilson helped them construct an NFC champion roster, and Darnold has to this point been ok to cause them to the Tremendous Bowl. However Seattle thought Darnold was value $33.5 million per 12 months in free company, and I consider it nonetheless values him in that vary.
If Darnold had been to insist on a big-money contract extension and threaten to take a seat out, Seattle’s current conduct tells us it’d most likely commerce him and discover a succesful alternative to plug into its deep, wonderful roster. The Seahawks do not need to spend great-QB cash on a very good — even very good — QB. They do not consider that is one of the simplest ways to construct a championship roster. If that they had Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or Joe Burrow or one other clearly elite quarterback, they’d be keen to pay him on the high of the market, as they had been early in Wilson’s profession. But when something, attending to the Tremendous Bowl with Darnold solely proves them proper of their perception that they will determine it out at QB. — Graziano
The quarterback matchup
Darnold vs. Maye
If anybody had this Tremendous Bowl quarterback matchup on their bingo card, I might prefer to see it. What an unbelievable pairing — however actually well-earned by each to make it right here.
By the numbers, Maye has had a tough postseason. His two worst video games of the season, by EPA per dropback and success fee, had been the 2 most up-to-date wins towards the Broncos and Texans; the win over the Chargers within the wild-card spherical was additionally a below-average efficiency in each metrics. His sack fee has doubled within the playoffs, from 7.8% to 14.7%, and his completion share has gone from 9.1% above expectation to five.8% beneath expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.
After all, we now have a simple solution to clarify this: He has performed three wonderful defenses, and it was snowing considerably towards two of them (the Texans and Broncos). Maye hasn’t been at his greatest, and it is truthful to say that the mixture of his first playoffs and the softer regular-season schedule has affected his sport. Now, he will get the Seahawks’ protection, which just one quarterback has reliably crushed this season: Matthew Stafford, Maye’s competitors for MVP.
Even Darnold’s staunchest believers puzzled about his means in large video games and key moments. This Rams’ protection, particularly, had flummoxed Darnold as a Viking final postseason and once more as a Seahawk on this common season. However he was stellar towards the Rams within the NFC Championship Recreation, avoiding turnovers whereas making aggressive throws between zones. He was fearless in a spot many anticipated him to concern.
A lot of Darnold’s success is to the credit score of Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, a stellar schemer with a deep menu of screens, rollouts and play-action passes to create open receivers and explosive performs with out taxing Darnold an excessive amount of. The Patriots know the scouting report on Darnold — he can fade underneath the massive lights and can spiral into dangerous turnovers underneath a heavy dose of strain. However with two weeks of prep, who will win the game-planning battle? Vrabel and his defensive workers in constructing out these strain plans; or Kubiak, with all of his intelligent machinations?
Darnold is without doubt one of the highest ceiling/lowest ground quarterbacks within the league. Maye, a 23-year-old taking part in within the Tremendous Bowl towards an elite protection, has a equally wide selection of outcomes. Maintain on to your butts! — Solak
Betting nuggets
-
That is the primary Tremendous Bowl in over 50 years between two groups that entered the season with not less than 60-1 odds to win the Tremendous Bowl.
-
Underdogs are 5-0 towards the unfold and 4-1 outright up to now 5 Tremendous Bowls, together with three straight outright wins.
-
Mike Vrabel (-400) and Mike Macdonald (+450) had been the 2 favorites to win Coach of the 12 months within the closing odds at DraftKings. Nobody has received Coach of the 12 months and the Tremendous Bowl in the identical season since 2003 (Invoice Belichick).
More Super Bowl LX odds and trends
Intestine-reaction predictions
Stephania Bell, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their protection would be the difference-maker right here; the constant, relentless strain up entrance will in the end pressure pricey turnovers by the Patriots.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their protection has the workforce pace and bodily demeanor up entrance to restrict Maye’s means to create explosive performs.
Jeremy Fowler, nationwide NFL reporter: Seahawks. Most full workforce within the league. They will win in a number of totally different kinds. Darnold’s confidence is renewed.
Dan Graziano, nationwide NFL reporter: Seahawks. They have been one of the best workforce all season, hiding in plain sight, and so they’ll make life brutally robust on Maye, who has already been sacked 15 instances this postseason.
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ offense is not ok to beat this Seattle protection.
Eric Moody, fantasy and betting analyst: Seahawks. Seattle’s protection has been formidable all season, and protection nonetheless wins championships. The Patriots are averaging simply 18.0 factors per sport this postseason, the fourth fewest by a workforce getting into the Tremendous Bowl and the fewest since 1979. Two of the three groups went on to lose the Tremendous Bowl.
Jason Reid, senior Andscape author: Seahawks. The Seahawks’ top-ranked scoring protection will shut down the Patriots’ offense.
Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Seahawks have been No. 1 in my DVOA scores for a lot of the second half of the season, and with that protection, I am anticipating a lower-scoring Tremendous Bowl. Seahawks 24, Patriots 18.
Ben Solak, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ run towards elite defenses ends with the true greatest unit of the season. With two weeks to plan, Macdonald could have too many instruments to fluster and disrupt Maye.
Lindsey Thiry, nationwide NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’re taking part in textbook complementary soccer on offense, protection and particular groups. And so they have standout playmakers who can change the sport in a second’s discover in every section.
Seth Walder, NFL analyst: Seahawks. ESPN’s FPI, which considers a workforce’s play on a down-to-down foundation all season, sees the Seahawks as being in a special class because the Patriots. I am inclined to belief the numbers. Seahawks by double digits.
Subject Yates, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots have confronted a particularly troublesome string of defenses this postseason, discovering methods to beat the sphere within the AFC. However Seattle’s roster is superior to the rosters of its first three foes, and I consider Seattle will take house the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy.
